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Beware? The “Super-League” Future of College Football

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Saint Puddles welcome. Post often and understand someone will let you know if you break the rules. Enjoy the forum.

 

Kind of get the feeling that the amateur ship has sailed.

 

However we will probably see an FCS type  championship playoff with the have nots.  

 

When the insanity levels off there will be plenty of schools who will let the ship sail without them.

 

And then offer a great amateur athletic experience for their student athlete.

 

If you watched the FCS Semifinals last weekend you saw passionate players and rabid fans.

 

Change will always come in many packages.

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On 12/22/2021 at 3:43 PM, HappyToBeADuck said:

Jon one more thought about the Super League developing in the near future.

 

IMHO, The PAC and its commissioner made a lethal mistake by not expanding. They could have ended the BIG 12 in one move.

 

The PAC could have laid the foundation for a 18-20 Mini Super League.  Not as glamorous as SEC, for sure. But positioned to cover 3 time zones, including Texas. TV money, lots of money, would have followed.

 

ould have eliminated a CFP competitor. Hec the last 3 weeks, after the Utah loss the narrative was all about Baylor, OU and Oklahoma State and the. CFP.. .. 2 of those teams should have been invited to the PAC.

 

I believe a 4 conference set up with 72-80 schools will come first.  Test the waters first. See how rating meters move. TV is and will always be the cash cow.......

 

The PAC could have made the first move. But didn't. Eventually 4 to 6 PAC teams will jump to a bigger pond.

 

COMPLETELY SPOT ON! IMO, the 3rd terrible decision by the 'leaders' of the Pac-12, following up being sold on the 'need' for CFB to have a champ decided on the field and throwing the Rose Bowl in for crickets,  then launching a network without a media partner and all distribution agreements in place, came this baffling decision not to expand. This decision came after the SEC did the dirty work. The SEC poached TX and OK . The Pac-12 could have been a savior for many a remaining B12 team. Instead, the Pac-12 formed an alliance that will add a P5 OOC game every year but a home game only every other year.

 

Would adding OK ST, TX TECH, TCU, HOUSTON, KS, K ST, Iowa State and Baylor immediately drop additional money to the Pac-12's bottom line? Probably not. But the conference would have increased its market size, added the significant Dallas and Houston markets and WIPED OUT a P5 competitor in the process. The folks who made this decision avoided strategic thinking. They looked at the immediate return on investment and said 'no' to expansion. I would expect this kind of 'thinking' from Scott. But I thought that media savvy guy GK, would have looked long term and not short term?  

 

These schools would not only have lifted the conference in CFB but also CBB. Perhaps added enough subscribers to save the network? Perhaps added enough market share so FOX would have come on board as the owner, operator, distributer of the network? Plus, for the most part even at Kansas, fans show up to watch the home games. What's even more baffling is that the conference made this decision after the new commissioner said AAU membership would not be a necessary requirement for membership.

 

What does GK now have to sell to the media companies in the upcoming new media negotiations? How about SSDD?

 

 

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On 12/22/2021 at 4:58 PM, DUCKBILL said:

Jon, The issue of paying for non-revenue sports is a problem. We will still have football and hopefully we can fill Autzen with an entertaining team. I would have to look at the Ivy League to see how they do it. Oregon women's basketball is a revenue producer if I remember correctly. Maybe we could get deep pocket sponsors to develop a sports endowment program. Students already pay a sports fee with their tuition.

In any case, There are surely options to financing our Oregon sports along the "old time" value of the STUDENT-athlete.

 

If only 2% of college athletes go pro, that means 98% must be playing for other reasons. Love of the game? Combine this with the hesitation of parents wanting their children to play football because of the body damage risk factor and we may see football as less important for the new generation of parents and youth.

 

IVY LEAGUE? They do it through huge endowments. The stands except for the rivalry game, Harvard vs Yale, Dartmouth vs Princeton, are empty. But like Stanford that backed off on cutting non-revenue sports, the Ivy League does not have to worry about CFB paying for the non-revenue sports.

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On 12/22/2021 at 4:58 PM, Mike West said:

Mind blowing article Jon.  

 

What a juicy topic. First of all, how will this effect draft status for players wanting to go to the NFL?

 

Since most players aren't close to talented enough to play in the NFL, how will that work out?

 

Will players stay longer than four years?  Will there be a salary cap? How will that effect minimum salaries?  

 

Will players be allowed to switch back and forth between leagues?  

 

Now that we've seen the first year of NIL, I'm sure some changes will occur.  For instance,  Spencer Rattler and DJ Ulagalelei were disappointments while Bryce Young and CJ Stroud were standouts.  

 

What kind of NIL deals will be signed from this point on (and if labor contracts are signed, how will that play out?).

 

Currently, it appears the wise coaches are going to pluck talent they can develop from other schools, and the recruiting rating systems are definitely going to be affected moving forward.

 

Plenty of schools have already experienced disappointments like Spencer Rattler and  DJ Ulagalelei, heck Oregon has experienced it three times the last 7 years.  In the meantime, CJ Stroud and Bryce Young were standouts. NIL deals are risky business.

 

I do believe there will be a slow transition to any such league.  It's only been one year in this new system of "payoffs and free agency".   I for one wouldn't shell out hundreds of  thousands of dollars to teenagers yet to prove themselves, even the top 300 players rated.  I believe there will be a shakeout in that area.

 

Same goes for coaches.  After all, Michigan and Cincinnati are an aberration to say the least.  If the playoff expands, I believe the astronomic coaching  salaries may cool off.

 

Jimbo Fisher is a one hit wonder so far.  Same for Mac Brown. In fact, the only Lion in the coaching ranks is  Nick Saban. 

 

Will we see schools succeed like the Steelers and the Patriots in this new system ( keep salaries low by developing players and allow  teams willing to "over pay" to pluck proven talent - yet still earn titles and playoff berths)?

 

Athletic Directors will need to develop some serious acumen to successfully navigate this new landscape.

 

So much to ponder.  It will be fascinating to observe the changes coming to college football. Let's hope University Presidents are truly an educated group, and are capable of preserving the goose that laid the Golden Egg.

 

Thanks Mike, all great thoughts. A+M has not won a division title since joining the SEC but Jimbo hit it out of the park with this recruiting class that will likely only get better in February?

 

Eligibility? Chance to be brought up to a parent NFL team and then be sent down? 6 years to play 4? Have to complete the equivalent of 2 years of JC credits is 4 or 5 years? I don't know how it will be formally and finally structured, but I do know that it will be about the Benjis.

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     Great article Jon; whatever comes of it, it’s just interesting to ponder.

 

     One issue that is a potential Achilles heal is that of how national school administration from the federal level right down to local districts will react to the intensified financial pressure brought to bear on student athletes who will inherit that along with the expected uptick in recruiting pressure. The reverberations from such a change in college ball will unavoidably sound throughout the high school systems of the country as prominent programs begin to jockey for position in this changing landscape and schools are forced to deal even more with some of the same issues colleges do now between education and sports.

 

     The reaction from national school administrators would probably be swift and negative as they foresee students of this age group not being mature enough to deal with the pressures raining down on them.

 

     Would this alter football as it has basketball where we now have academies created especially to prepare players for the next level? Easier said than done when you look at a cost comparison of the two sports. It could be the only choice though if national educators trump athletic departments at the high school level in the effort to protect youth from a higher sports system run amok in pursuit of the almighty dollar.

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On 12/22/2021 at 6:34 PM, Washington Waddler said:

     Great article Jon; whatever comes of it, it’s just interesting to ponder.

 

     One issue that is a potential Achilles heal is that of how national school administration from the federal level right down to local districts will react to the intensified financial pressure brought to bear on student athletes who will inherit that along with the expected uptick in recruiting pressure. The reverberations from such a change in college ball will unavoidably sound throughout the high school systems of the country as prominent programs begin to jockey for position in this changing landscape and schools are forced to deal even more with some of the same issues colleges do now between education and sports.

 

     The reaction from national school administrators would probably be swift and negative as they foresee students of this age group not being mature enough to deal with the pressures raining down on them.

 

     Would this alter football as it has basketball where we now have academies created especially to prepare players for the next level? Easier said than done when you look at a cost comparison of the two sports. It could be the only choice though if national educators trump athletic departments at the high school level in the effort to protect youth from a higher sports system run amok in pursuit of the almighty dollar.

 

     

 

 

I think my friend that at least at the college level the bills proposed in Congress and the Alston decision by the Supreme Court have been met.

 

In other words, don't mess with a player's ability to capitalize on his own NIL. And today? There really is no agency in control. So we have pay for play, unfettered free agency, roster tampering and millions of dollars falling down on coaches who have not been head coaches and coaches like Tucker and Cristobal who are barely over .500 for their career as head coaches. When it comes to roster tampering you don't have to talk with the player, you talk with his now allowed agent. There is a single commissioner for the NFL. There is a draft in inverse order of finish. There is no CFB control of agents; agents must be approved by the NFL. There are contractual restraints on free agency. In the NFL, Jacksonville gets the same media financial rewards as does the New York Giants. 

 

BTW, the top running back in the portal from Georgia Tech just signed with Bama. I'm shocked. In 2021, Bama's top tackler and top receiver came from the portal.

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Jon, you may have nailed it. A Super League may well be in the cards. And while seeing how this plays out will be fascinating, it pains me to imagine what many of us college football fans—and yes, even many of the athletes—will lose in the process.

 

Guess I'll wind up skipping the Super League teams and following the smaller schools where student athletes still play the game I love.

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Great article, Jon. It's always fun to hang out with the smart people here. One thing, though. You said there are 1,000 players in the portal. I heard the other day that there are 2,000! Ten years ago who would have thought that the two most important words in college football are now "transfer portal" and NIL. It is a different world. While I don't believe the Ducks are headed into the Ivy League model, we are certainly barrelling down a road with little in the way of headlights.

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On 12/22/2021 at 5:12 PM, SaintPuddles said:

Hi, new to the forum and recent-ish UO alumni. Glad to be here and hope this post falls within the rules. As I intend to touch on the ethical considerations and consequences of NIL decision by the supreme court. But will avoid any out of scope political commentary.

Firstly, to Jon's question on funding of non-revenue sports.
 


Like most other student activities, they would be funded by the fees as part of tuition (at UO it's called the I-fee).

Of course, there is the issue that these I-fees would not be enough to cover the costs. Yet, I think the more pressing question is why these costs are so high?

Imo it is because college athletics has long moved past amateur athletic pursuits to a multi-billion dollar industry. As such, it seems fairly unethical for these young men to be surrounded by people making millions a year while they risk their health and well-being for a relative pittance. So while NIL may or may not hurt my personal viewing experience, I cannot in good conscience try to apply false veneer of amateurism.

So to me that leaves 2 choices.
1. If cfb and cbb are to remain highly profitable, enterprises, the men in the arena should be fairly compensated.

2. Actually make college athletics amateur. This would mean no more multi-million dollar coaches salaries, lavish facilities or buku TV deals. Perhaps by limiting athletic department spending or some such mechanism. This would mean a less glitzy experience. But perhaps a more soulful localized experience of the older days. Which as a 30 year-old I never got to experience, and I hear was pretty cool.

 

Thanks for this great comment. Great to see you on board the Forum.

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On 12/23/2021 at 4:49 AM, Duckpop22 said:

Great article, Jon. It's always fun to hang out with the smart people here. One thing, though. You said there are 1,000 players in the portal. I heard the other day that there are 2,000! Ten years ago who would have thought that the two most important words in college football are now "transfer portal" and NIL. It is a different world. While I don't believe the Ducks are headed into the Ivy League model, we are certainly barrelling down a road with little in the way of headlights.

 

Spot on regarding portal numbers. Far more guys in the portal than there are available scholarships. 

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On 12/22/2021 at 2:05 AM, FishDuck Article said:

The arms race in college football, (CFB) has passed the point of the absurd. Case in point, Michigan State coach Mel Tucker who in three seasons has compiled a record barely over .500 and in 2022 will be paid over $9M per season. Another case in point is the case of Mario Cristobal, a head coach with a record of ...

 

Read the full article here...

Kind of funny Jon that you mention Mario and Mel against 3 guys who have won Natty's. I have to laugh at Mario's record at 61-60 that's absurd and Miami I'm sure just like FSU did to

Oregon with slick Willie and the exact same thing will happen to Mario so what does he have to worry about after he's fired, absolutely nothing because his family will be taken care of the rest of their lives because their father coached and did entertainment and that's exactly what this is and that's it.

 

The money they make is what's wrong with this country and it's called greed and I'm getting to the point why do they need my little dollars because Oregon hasn't done nothing as far as become a National Championship and isn't what we should expect and that's the Multi Billionaire paying out more than the others so Oregon can say yes we are in the Natty Championship history. Now because they just expanded the playoff's it got a whole lot tougher. I mean I whole heartedly think or believe Oregon got a way better HC than Mario.

 

Alls I know is this is all craziness and Mario just got paid over 8 million for barely being a above 500% HC. This is total insanity and I'm not in agreement that Thibadueax isn't gonna play in the Alamo bowl because I don't care what anybody thinks about this is he quit on his team and I'm never going to aknowledge that he played for Oregon. The guy didn't show up in either game against Utah. That's not first pick in the NFL draft and I wouldn't want him period. I don't get that feeling from Hutchinson who doesn't have the athletic traits this guy possesses.

 which I fine 

He just plays freaking hard all game long and it shows in the guys stats so I'd take him over Thib's any day as in no excuses for how he didn't show up. For the game at all levels to get better players should neevr be allowed to sit out only if their injured and that's it so he's just a selfish player all the way around. I still to this day cannot believe Mario told Oregon fans not to boo which was hilarious as who does he think he is. I seriously doubt most fans were booing anybody but Cristabol because he's the guy that refused to take out the terrible QB.

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On 12/24/2021 at 2:28 PM, MaiTaiDuck said:

Kind of funny Jon that you mention Mario and Mel against 3 guys who have won Natty's. I have to laugh at Mario's record at 61-60 that's absurd and Miami I'm sure just like FSU did to

Oregon with slick Willie and the exact same thing will happen to Mario so what does he have to worry about after he's fired, absolutely nothing because his family will be taken care of the rest of their lives because their father coached and did entertainment and that's exactly what this is and that's it.

 

The money they make is what's wrong with this country and it's called greed and I'm getting to the point why do they need my little dollars because Oregon hasn't done nothing as far as become a National Championship and isn't what we should expect and that's the Multi Billionaire paying out more than the others so Oregon can say yes we are in the Natty Championship history. Now because they just expanded the playoff's it got a whole lot tougher. I mean I whole heartedly think or believe Oregon got a way better HC than Mario.

 

Alls I know is this is all craziness and Mario just got paid over 8 million for barely being a above 500% HC. This is total insanity and I'm not in agreement that Thibadueax isn't gonna play in the Alamo bowl because I don't care what anybody thinks about this is he quit on his team and I'm never going to aknowledge that he played for Oregon. The guy didn't show up in either game against Utah. That's not first pick in the NFL draft and I wouldn't want him period. I don't get that feeling from Hutchinson who doesn't have the athletic traits this guy possesses.

 which I fine 

He just plays freaking hard all game long and it shows in the guys stats so I'd take him over Thib's any day as in no excuses for how he didn't show up. For the game at all levels to get better players should neevr be allowed to sit out only if their injured and that's it so he's just a selfish player all the way around. I still to this day cannot believe Mario told Oregon fans not to boo which was hilarious as who does he think he is. I seriously doubt most fans were booing anybody but Cristabol because he's the guy that refused to take out the terrible QB.

 

As The Book says: Money is not evil. The love of money is evil. Thanks for the great comment. In 'fairness' to Mario I believe his overall record is 62-60. People want to forget about and make excuses for Mario's record at FIU.

 

Lane Kiffin took over FAU and turned the program around in his first season there. Mario is a recruiting champ and a coaching chump. So long and don't let the door hit you in the backside on the way out.

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