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Future of the Pac-12: “Three Strikes and You’re Out?”

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Have three terrible business decisions have dropped the Pac-12 from significance to college football (CFB) irrelevancy? STRIKE 1 – The Rose Bowl In 1902 the first bowl game was played on New Year’s Day (NYD) in Pasadena California in association with the City of Pasadena’s traditional Rose Bowl Parade. Michigan played Stanford in the East-West Bowl Game. Michigan defeated Stanford ...

 

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Excellent eval ... and I rarely agree with much of what you write.

 

I guess what astonishes me the most is that PAC12 does not pick up teams in the Houston & Dallas markets. It seems like potentially such a HUGE difference-maker to do that ... but we don't. PAC12 needs to do something to change the pattern, to actually compete with SEC & B1G. Not a good start for the new Commish.

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Thanks, Jon, for writing the sad story that encapsulates the management foibles of the leaders of the PAC. The PAC-12 has dug itself into the proverbial hole.

 

Along with those you called out by name, I would further place responsibility on the university presidents who failed to protect and increase the present and future value of the asset of “college football” and the brand of the PAC-12 and its predecessors.

 

As only three strikes are allowed, the management “misses” of the administrators should be afforded foul ball status at the least. 

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I like how you didn't really have to write too much to justify how incompetent the tv deal was and continues to be. The crowning moment of Larry's tenure turned out to be a clown hat.

 

Great job of bringing the history of the Rose Bowl into the bright lights. I wish Larry had a clue about the storied history and value of the game when he gave it away.

 

Standing still while everyone else is moving works when others are just chasing their tails, but not when they are leaving you behind. So far George seems to be just looking at the mess without a clue about what to do. 

 

Maybe SC and Oregon can pull this conference out of the tailspin it is in after Larry's destruction, but that isn't an actionable plan George should hang his hat on.

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Thanks Jon for this well organized and concerning article.

 

Based upon the passion and frustration, on these 3 concerns, from your previous posts thru out the season there must have been a few rewrites and edits............

 

Whether these decisions were from the ego driven arrogance of the presidents or the ignorance and ego of Scott or both. ..........

 

Either way the hard core truth in this article makes my blood boil. So I will control my anger as I revisit the blueprint of the PAC's self destruction. 

 

When the TV contract ends, what then? We have no bargaining power as we failed to position ourselves to offer the networks what they want.....

 

More TV eyeballs within our footprint and fresh content.  You know like SC vs Baylor or Oregon vs Oklahoma State. WTH.........

 

When the BIG and SEC sign their new TV contracts each school could be receiving around $100,000,000 per year.  Rutgers, Maryland, Vanderbilt,  real football juggernauts cashing big annual payments.

 

So how long will Oregon and USC stay in the PAC for a measley $50 to $60 million a year.

 

Better yet why should they. Big time football deserves big time paydays.

None to be found in the PAC.....

 

You could guess that more than one conference will come calling......

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Hard to argue your premise Jon.

 

That first effort to add A&M, Oklahoma, Texas and  Oklahoma State was the best effort to preserve the solid reputation the conference had.  

 

Since then, the "Conference of Champions" look to sports that clearly don't fund the Athletic Departments of our "prestigious" set of universities.

 

Meanwhile, the BCS successfully reduced USC to ashes.  Nobody was in the Trojans' realm for seven full years.  

 

I do argue it was necessary to keep the SEC in it's place, which USC did at the beginning of the century.  Those ole boys learned quickly to avoid Southern Cal and build their narrative in the meantime ( nobody dared face USC after they annihilated Auburn in prime time). 

 

Unfortunately, s few bad ref calls thwarted OBD when we took the mantle with Chip, and that was all she wrote for the PAC12 ( as the Fuskies didn't have a complete enough QB to finish off Bama when they clearly were good enough to).  

 

Now the mighty Presidents of our academically elite conference are slowly collapsing it into dust as West Coast Recruits obviously recognize Olympic Sports matter more than revenue generating sports.  

 

Tisk tisk.

Edited by Mike West
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For me, the Rose Bowl stadium is reason enough never to go there again. Admittedly, it was 2010 the last time I was there, so maybe things are much improved, but then the stairs were steep, uneven, and in some spots dangerously worn. The bathrooms and concession stands were outside the stadium. The video screen was small. And getting out of the stadium after the game was pure h*ll. The tunnel was jammed and so was the rest of the journey to the parking lot. It took us an hour to get from our seats to the bus. As I said, maybe things are better now, but I won't be going down there to find out.

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On 12/27/2021 at 9:21 AM, Notalot said:

Thanks, Jon, for writing the sad story that encapsulates the management foibles of the leaders of the PAC. The PAC-12 has dug itself into the proverbial hole.

 

Along with those you called out by name, I would further place responsibility on the university presidents who failed to protect and increase the present and future value of the asset of “college football” and the brand of the PAC-12 and its predecessors.

 

As only three strikes are allowed, the management “misses” of the administrators should be afforded foul ball status at the least. 

 

Thanks friend Notalot. It's sad to see how the BCS and the so-called Playoff has elevated the SEC and so diminished the Pac-12. There was a way out of here but the Pac-12 did not pull the trigger.

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On 12/27/2021 at 9:22 AM, Haywarduck said:

I like how you didn't really have to write too much to justify how incompetent the tv deal was and continues to be. The crowning moment of Larry's tenure turned out to be a tiara.

 

Great job of bringing the history of the Rose Bowl into the bright lights. I wish Larry had a clue about the storied history and value of the game when he gave it away.

 

Standing still while everyone else is moving works when others are just chasing their tails, but not when they are leaving you behind. So far George seems to be just looking at the mess without a clue about what to do. 

 

Maybe SC and Oregon can pull this conference out of the tailspin it is in after Larry's destruction, but that isn't an actionable plan George should hang his hat on.

 

Or perhaps Oregon and USC should looking for a new home? I'm reasonably certain that B12 commish Bob Bowlsby, would love to go coast to coast and to do so, he might give both SC and Oregon a bigger piece of the B12 proceeds? I do not believe WA ST AD Chun and the WAZZU administration do not want to be competitive at the highest level of CFB. But I do believe they do not have the money to do so.

 

Oregon is spending far more than the majority of its conference partners and CFB and getting the same cut of revenue of the WA ST's of the conference. THIS makes zero business sense for Oregon.

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On 12/27/2021 at 10:03 AM, HappyToBeADuck said:

Thanks Jon for this well organized and concerning article.

 

Based upon the passion and frustration, on these 3 concerns, from your previous posts thru out the season there must have been a few rewrites and edits............

 

Whether these decisions were from the ego driven arrogance of the presidents or the ignorance and ego of Scott or both. ..........

 

Either way the hard core truth in this article makes my blood boil. So I will control my anger as I revisit the blueprint of the PAC's self destruction. 

 

When the TV contract ends, what then? We have no bargaining power as we failed to position ourselves to offer the networks what they want.....

 

More TV eyeballs within our footprint and fresh content.  You know like SC vs Baylor or Oregon vs Oklahoma State. WTH.........

 

When the BIG and SEC sign their new TV contracts each school could be receiving around $100,000,000 per year.  Rutgers, Maryland, Vanderbilt,  real football juggernauts cashing big annual payments.

 

So how long will Oregon and USC stay in the PAC for a measley $50 to $60 million a year.

 

Better yet why should they. Big time football deserves big time paydays.

None to be found in the PAC.....

 

You could guess that more than one conference will come calling......

 

I HOPE at least 1 will come calling? The Alliance in many ways is the George Kliavkoff job protection act. Now that the B1G has officially 'aligned' with the Pac-12 ,will the B!G feel an ethical obligation not to poach Pac-12 teams?

 

Seems to me the viable opportunity as I believe it has been all along, lies with the some kind of deal for the $ ball teams, SC, Oregon, UW and perhaps others, to join the B12. You will not be able to do so or make any other kind of move once your media rights have been pledged to the Pac-12 after the date the current media deal expires.

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On 12/27/2021 at 10:14 AM, Mike West said:

Hard to argue your premise Jon.

 

That first effort to add A&M, Oklahoma, Texas and  Oklahoma State was the best effort to preserve the solid reputation the conference had.  

 

Since then, the "Conference of Champions" look to sports that clearly don't fund the Athletic Departments of our "prestigious" set of universities.

 

Meanwhile, the BCS successfully reduced USC to ashes.  Nobody was in the Trojans' realm for seven full years.  

 

I do argue it was necessary to keep the SEC in it's place, which USC did at the beginning of the century.  Those ole boys learned quickly to avoid Southern Cal and build their narrative in the meantime ( nobody dared face USC after they annihilated Auburn in prime time). 

 

Unfortunately, s few bad ref calls thwarted OBD when we took the mantle with Chip, and that was all she wrote for the PAC12 ( as the Fuskies didn't have a complete enough QB to finish off Bama when they clearly were good enough to).  

 

Now the mighty Presidents of our academically elite conference are slowly collapsing it into dust as West Coast Recruits obviously recognize Olympic Sports matter more than revenue generating sports.  

 

Tisk tisk.

 

Spot on. What really surprised me and frankly ticked me off, was Kliavkoff not swooping in to add B12 teams and in the process. killing off a P5 competitor.  I thought a new day was dawning? Instead SSDD.

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Thanks for the history lesson and analysis of where the Pac-12 currently sits, and sits it does. 

I feel like the biggest problem the conference faces is what we've said for a long time about the SEC and a lot of the B1G.

 

It's their life

 

Aside from Oregon and USC, the "Conference of Champions" doesn't have a beating heart. Kramer, and now Sankey and Bowlsby have the backing and enthusiasm of all the schools to make big moves. Meanwhile Larry and now George are shaking pompoms but don't have any wind behind them.

 

Like you wrote, at one time the Pac-12 was the King. The Rose Bowl was The Bowl, and it was in Pac-8-10-12 territory. But that was handed over for nothing. Oregon and USC are shiny sports cars stuck in a parking lot with rusty jalopies in the Pac-12 now. 

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On 12/27/2021 at 11:05 AM, Annie said:

For me, the Rose Bowl stadium is reason enough never to go there again. Admittedly, it was 2010 the last time I was there, so maybe things are much improved, but then the stairs were steep, uneven, and in some spots dangerously worn. The bathrooms and concession stands were outside the stadium. The video screen was small. And getting out of the stadium after the game was pure h*ll. The tunnel was jammed and so was the rest of the journey to the parking lot. It took us an hour to get from our seats to the bus. As I said, maybe things are better now, but I won't be going down there to find out.

 

SPOT ON! The City of Pasadena has acknowledged the issues you so perfectly presented and are taking steps to update the stadium. 

 

What happens if the playoff field goes to 8 or 12 and the Rose Bowl refuses to give up its 1/1 5PM kickoff slot? The Rose Bowl could become no more than the Holiday Bowl?

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On 12/27/2021 at 11:33 AM, 30Duck said:

Thanks for the history lesson and analysis of where the Pac-12 currently sits, and sits it does. 

I feel like the biggest problem the conference faces is what we've said for a long time about the SEC and a lot of the B1G.

 

It's their life

 

Aside from Oregon and USC, the "Conference of Champions" doesn't have a beating heart. Kramer, and now Sankey and Bowlsby have the backing and enthusiasm of all the schools to make big moves. Meanwhile Larry and now George are shaking pompoms but don't have any wind behind them.

 

Like you wrote, at one time the Pac-12 was the King. The Rose Bowl was The Bowl, and it was in Pac-8-10-12 territory. But that was handed over for nothing. Oregon and USC are shiny sports cars stuck in a parking lot with rusty jalopies in the Pac-12 now. 

 

Move to a new track?

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On 12/27/2021 at 8:37 AM, Jon Joseph said:

 

Move to a new track?

 

"STAT" as they say on the hospital shows. It just seems like there aren't moves the Pac-12 can make to get on equal footing with the other conferences. the B1G has 6 teams regularly that compete to win the conference championship and an invitation, the SEC and now Cincy & Notre Dame, fight for the other seats. 

 

Oregon and USC are the only consistently viable teams in the conference, with its 9 game schedule and horrific TV presence. Oregon and USC have to think for themselves and get out!

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sounds like the pac-12 has a prowess problem  

Edited by DR Hilarius
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On 12/27/2021 at 6:22 AM, Haywarduck said:

The crowning moment of Larry's tenure turned out to be a tiara.

More like a Burger King crown, a tiara at least has some value and looks decent.

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The Pac-12 Commissioner

 

image.jpeg.98e12ffe3104328043efe054f422a96a.jpeg

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I visualize an image of the Pac 12 presidents sitting together by a pool on a yacht all wearing ascots while holding brandy snifters and chortling about the prestige of their elite club. Meanwhile, the heads of the rest of the power five attend to the business of making money.

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On 12/27/2021 at 9:26 AM, Steven A said:

More like a Burger King crown, a tiara at least has some value and looks decent.

For sure on that.

 

Scott was nothing more than a puppet or court jester for the 12 presidents 

 

Washington isn't the only PAC school with the academic prowess mentality. In what world did the PAC presidents think standing pat was a power move. Clowns?

 

Any aggressive move by another P-5 Conference or Network and the PAC, which is vulnerable, could be in harms way.......

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Again __ USC, UCLA, Stanford, California and Washington ALL these schools are in the Top 20 academic and research schools in the WORLD. There is more money in research and academics then the football. Plus in the Top 300 World Ranked schools __ UO, OSU and Wazzu bottom 200's. UO football helps enrollment and helps the balance sheet from drowning in red ink.

 

Heard great line other days ___ Full Ride ESPNU ___ Coach Mario has a medical school on the U that in 2020, profited over $400M alone that school has cash.

 

So take the five (5) schools above and what do they ALL have in common ___ Global academics, research in sciences, math and medical research ___ Their liberal board regents will take $40M here and there over $50K per game attendance. Oregon built beautiful supporting for ALL sports ___ Don't forget PK dollars are and how it was built pure and simple. 

 

Going take long shot here per this blog___ Folks PAC12 is pure simple an olympic sports conference. Fair assessment? I could see when the new TV deals come forward __ Could USC pull a Norte Dame and go independent and remaining sports do an ACC alignment like ND has today 2025? Problem the TV rating Los Angeles. Phoenix and Seattle are the only population market draws.

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On 12/27/2021 at 1:05 PM, Sun Devil Herb said:

Again __ USC, UCLA, Stanford, California and Washington ALL these schools are in the Top 20 academic and research schools in the WORLD. There is more money in research and academics then the football. Plus in the Top 300 World Ranked schools __ UO, OSU and Wazzu bottom 200's. UO football helps enrollment and helps the balance sheet from drowning in red ink.

 

Heard great line other days ___ Full Ride ESPNU ___ Coach Mario has a medical school on the U that in 2020, profited over $400M alone that school has cash.

 

So take the five (5) schools above and what do they ALL have in common ___ Global academics, research in sciences, math and medical research ___ Their liberal board regents will take $40M here and there over $50K per game attendance. Oregon built beautiful supporting for ALL sports ___ Don't forget PK dollars are and how it was built pure and simple. 

 

Going take long shot here per this blog___ Folks PAC12 is pure simple an olympic sports conference. Fair assessment? I could see when the new TV deals come forward __ Could USC pull a Norte Dame and go independent and remaining sports do an ACC alignment like ND has today 2025? Problem the TV rating Los Angeles. Phoenix and Seattle are the only population market draws.

 

Good stuff. Based on the location of and compared to many the B12 team, Portland/Eugene, Denver, San Francisco/Oakland and Salt Lake City (B12 covered by BYU?) are all good sized markets. Tucson is a decent sized market. 

 

I was surprised to learn that OK City and Tulsa combined (per Andy Staples) is the 4th largest TV market in the country. Could have had OK ST but, oh well.

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On 12/27/2021 at 2:05 AM, FishDuck Article said:

Have three terrible business decisions

I'm going to say just two for now.  I think the Alliance was a good idea.  It kept the ACC, Big10 and the Pac 12 from cannibalizing each other AND took away some clout the SEC had in regard to no longer having the biggest voting block in college football.  

 

Keeping a fifth power five with a bit more hatred for the SEC than the rest of us helps too.

 

Also, with a scheduling alliance, once the playoffs are expanded to include the conference winners, there will be more teams willing to have crossover games like the OSU Duck game this year without ruining playoff hopes.

 

Plus, more basketball cross scheduling will be both a fan interest win and a competition win for getting ready for March/April madness.

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On 12/27/2021 at 4:38 PM, Steven A said:

I'm going to say just two for now.  I think the Alliance was a good idea.  It kept the ACC, Big10 and the Pac 12 from cannibalizing each other AND took away some clout the SEC had in regard to no longer having the biggest voting block in college football.  

 

Keeping a fifth power five with a bit more hatred for the SEC than the rest of us helps too.

 

Also, with a scheduling alliance, once the playoffs are expanded to include the conference winners, there will be more teams willing to have crossover games like the OSU Duck game this year without ruining playoff hopes.

 

Plus, more basketball cross scheduling will be both a fan interest win and a competition win for getting ready for March/April madness.

 

Great point but I for one would have been very happy if the B1G cannibalized the Pac-12 and included Oregon on the menu.

 

The Alliance certainly did not restrict the Pac-12 from going after B12 teams. To date The Alliance has given Oregon 1 more P5 OOC game that will be played in Autzen every other year. The Alliance is split on playoff expansion with the Pac-12/B1G OK with 12 teams and the ACC wanting 8 teams.

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On 12/27/2021 at 1:17 PM, Jon Joseph said:

 

Good stuff. Based on the location of and compared to many the B12 team, Portland/Eugene, Denver, San Francisco/Oakland and Salt Lake City (B12 covered by BYU?) are all good sized markets. Tucson is a decent sized market. 

 

I was surprised to learn that OK City and Tulsa combined (per Andy Staples) is the 4th largest TV market in the country. Could have had OK ST but, oh well.

The Bay Area is a real problem for the PAC-12.  College sports has a minuscule following there.  It’s like the northeast - all they care about is pro sports.  The stadium at Cal, in particular, is a great to watch college football, but even when Cal is good they rarely sell out.  Stanford has a small alumni base in comparison to the other PAC-12 schools, and most alums don’t live in the area.  They did a great job with their new stadium, but again, struggle with attendance.  With this level of overall disinterest, the number of TVs in the Bay Area is a misleading stat IMO.  

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Same in the 60s when it was the Rose Bowl and not also home of UCLA.

 

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On 12/27/2021 at 6:40 PM, Jemangi said:

Same in the 60s when it was the Rose Bowl and not also home of UCLA.

 

 

YES! And when guys like Plunkett and Warren Moon took down B1G favored opponents. And how about UCLA defeating Michigan State.

 

These were games the entire nation cared about and tuned in to watch.

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Agree with Annie.  Rose Bowl is not fan friendly.  Built in 1920, when people were much smaller, the distance between rows, and the extreme length of the rows between stairways, make getting in and out a people moving process.

 

many fans at bowl games are only occasional followers of football for whom trips to the concession stand have as much or more importance than the play on the field.  So you spend a great part of your game time accommodating that, not only for their food gathering, out then back in, but also the subsequent round trips to the loo for depositing the food and drinks they bought.

 

Then there is the extremely low rake on the first 20 or so rows.  Hard to see over anyone taller than about 5’ 10”.

 

Rose Bowl is not a stadium I will again visit.

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Wonderful article on a not-so-wonderful topic, Jon. Hmmm...is it too early in the day for some of that leftover Christmas eggnog?

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On 12/28/2021 at 11:14 AM, WiseKwacker said:

Wonderful article on a not-so-wonderful topic, Jon. Hmmm...is it too early in the day for some of that leftover Christmas eggnog?

 

It's always after 5 PM somewhere on the planet, no?

 

If the conference had expanded as proposed in the article, in the latest AP CBB Poll the Pac-20 would have 8 teams in the top 25.

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Larry Scott's first major blunder was not allowing Texas to keep the Longhorn Network, which wound up being a deal-breaker for them.  He put all his eggs in the P12 Network basket and we know how that turned out.

 

As long as the University presidents continue insisting on AAU membership (ironic since 3 P12 schools are currently non-members) there's really not much value that can be added outside of the existing P5 conferences.  I doubt we are strong enough to poach other P5 conference members.  We also know they won't take a religious school, so teams like BYU, Baylor, TCU, etc. are out.  We're pretty much boxed in unless the AD's can gain more autonomy and get academia out as the final decision maker in athletic matters.  This would seem to be be doable at least in theory.  Wouldn't it be great to have the ADs making the final decision in conference alignment/expansion?

 

The only way the new TV contracts can be maximized IMHO is to have non-conference scheduling  with other "Alliance" conferences locked in, for example dropping down to 8 conference games with guaranteed games with 1 BIG and ACC team every year (on a flex-schedule like GK suggests) makes the whole package a lot more attractive.

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On 12/28/2021 at 1:28 PM, noDucknewby said:

Larry Scott's first major blunder was not allowing Texas to keep the Longhorn Network, which wound up being a deal-breaker for them.  He put all his eggs in the P12 Network basket and we know how that turned out.

 

As long as the University presidents continue insisting on AAU membership (ironic since 3 P12 schools are currently non-members) there's really not much value that can be added outside of the existing P5 conferences.  I doubt we are strong enough to poach other P5 conference members.  We also know they won't take a religious school, so teams like BYU, Baylor, TCU, etc. are out.  We're pretty much boxed in unless the AD's can gain more autonomy and get academia out as the final decision maker in athletic matters.  This would seem to be be doable at least in theory.  Wouldn't it be great to have the ADs making the final decision in conference alignment/expansion?

 

The only way the new TV contracts can be maximized IMHO is to have non-conference scheduling  with other "Alliance" conferences locked in, for example dropping down to 8 conference games with guaranteed games with 1 BIG and ACC team every year (on a flex-schedule like GK suggests) makes the whole package a lot more attractive.

 

Great take, thank you.  The conference decided NOT to expand after GK said AAU membership would not be a condition of joining the Pac-12. BYU is a 'religious' school. Baylor, TCU and SMU for that matter are far more secular than BYU.

 

I don't think that 1 extra OOC game a year against an Alliance team is going to have a major media impact. Arizona at Duke, IMO, does not move the CFB needle. CBB yes. CFB, no.

 

The conference can and likely should go to 8 conference games. But will this ipso facto put 2 more teams into the top 25? Not unless recruiting picks up. Why should it pick up in a conference that was 0-5 vs BYU and 5-6 vs the Mountain West.

 

I think the 'leadership' of this conference has been vapid for a decade plus and continues to be so. I believe the best thing for Oregon's future would be for Puddles to fly to a more feathered nest.

 

Can't make chicken salad out of chicken stuff.

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On 12/28/2021 at 10:49 AM, Jon Joseph said:

 

Great take, thank you.  The conference decided NOT to expand after GK said AAU membership would not be a condition of joining the Pac-12. BYU is a 'religious' school. Baylor, TCU and SMU for that matter are far more secular than BYU.

 

I don't think that 1 extra OOC game a year against an Alliance team is going to have a major media impact. Arizona at Duke, IMO, does not move the CFB needle. CBB yes. CFB, no.

 

The conference can and likely should go to 8 conference games. But will this ipso facto put 2 more teams into the top 25? Not unless recruiting picks up. Why should it pick up in a conference that was 0-5 vs BYU and 5-6 vs the Mountain West.

 

I think the 'leadership' of this conference has been vapid for a decade plus and continues to be so. I believe the best thing for Oregon's future would be for Puddles to fly to a more feathered nest.

 

Can't make chicken salad out of chicken stuff.

Jon

 

Which conference should Oregon move to would make a great topic for a full blown article. 

 

At some point, without additional quality members  and eyeballs the money disparity between the SEC and BIG versus the other conferences will be to substantial to ignore. 

 

Ducks will be forced to make a move....

 

This forum is filled with knowledgeable writers and posters. The opinions will be varied and the topic will be hot.

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On 12/28/2021 at 7:23 PM, HappyToBeADuck said:

Jon

 

Which conference should Oregon move to would make a great topic for a full blown article. 

 

At some point, without additional quality members  and eyeballs the money disparity between the SEC and BIG versus the other conferences will be to substantial to ignore. 

 

Ducks will be forced to make a move....

 

This forum is filled with knowledgeable writers and posters. The opinions will be varied and the topic will be hot.

 

I was so disappointed when Oregon did not do what was the business-like obvious. Add OK, ST, Baylor, TX Tech, TCU, Houston, Iowa St, Kansas and K ST. Add CU and Utah to form the Pac-20 East division. Establish the P4 while eliminating a competitor. 

 

That ship has sailed. However, before Oregon commits its media rights beyond the current agreement I hope the Ducks will investigate other opportunities? Find partners that are willing and able to open up the wallet instead of carrying WA ST, etc.

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