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The Temporary Nature of 2022 College Football

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The world of football is in a position unlike anything we’ve seen before. Players have grown with star power over their respective team’s coaching staffs and management to an unprecedented point, and the fallout is beginning to culminate with both coaches and players. Even middling talent has begun a movement to jump ship with higher and higher volume, leaving their ...

 
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The world of football is in a position unlike anything we've seen before. Players have grown with star power over their respective team'
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Thanks for the good article!

 

"A can of worms"  is correct.   Players will be quicker to transfer when not seeing the field as soon as they want.  The college football landscape has changed.

 

At the same time I remember how impetuous I was at that age.  Quick to make decisions and many not in my best interest.

 

We have seen it with some athletes declaring early for the draft, and then being lucky to make a practice squad.  

 

We can hope that Oregon's coaches will be wise in their development of the player's athletic talent, and contribute to the player's maturity in becoming a better man!

 

 

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I think it wall add another wrinkle in analyzing recruits. Is this recruit worth the effort based on talent and based on attitude within the new structure of college football. Teams miss all the time with their recruits. Missing based on the attitude of a player might be even more devastating for a program. 

 

If you miss on the talent of a player you usually have a back-up plan, maybe even a walk-on who adds to the program. If you miss on the attitude of a player you may have a hole in the program or even worse. The attitude of the team is going to be an even harder component of a program to develop and keep on the healthy side.

 

How long before a player runs off the field like Antonio Brown did as a Bucc? Playing time, playing up their egos, and making sure they have enough NIL money is going to potentially add a hole, not just a wrinkle. I just hope it doesn't also add a large sucking sound on the field, sideline and locker room.

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Everything has changed and not for the better for us fans. I have lost most of my interest in college basketball. One and done, constant transfers, no continuity etc. I feel the same thing is happening to me now regarding college football. Understand that I am speaking for myself and not most of the people on this forum but I know I am starting to lose interest.

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I do not deny what is happening, and I am not putting my head in a hole...but nothing is going to change dramatically for Oregon in the next three years, maybe even four years as Jon Joseph and I have concluded.

 

Thus....

On 3/28/2022 at 8:10 AM, Santa Rosa Duck said:

Understand that I am speaking for myself and not most of the people on this forum but I know I am starting to lose interest.

Not me!  We have a three year window to enjoy Oregon football before major changes occur; why not soak it up while we can and savor what we know is so sweet while we can?

 

The change will be there forever, and we can check out of college football then!

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Mr. FishDuck

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Thanks for the fine article, Alex.  18 year olds making more money than the school's president.  More power in the hands of these 18 year olds.  What could possibly go wrong?

 

I'm totally with Santa Rosa Duck's opine.  Greed and lack of commitment to the team, the game, and their contracts (by players AND coaches) has driven me from my love of all professional sports.  These elements are now entering college athletics.  I see things changing much more rapidly than in three or four years.  And along with that I include my own attitude toward collegiate sports.

 

College football and basketball will suffer the same downturn in attendance (and concomitant interest) as the NBA and NFL, with the exception that without the help of the Chinese the downturn will be much sharper.  Hmmm...maybe college athletics can gin up more interest by crossing country barriers to play teams from ... say ... Columbia or El Salvador.  (Are there colleges in Columbia and El Salvador?) 

 

Nope, all the major agents for change are in place.  Times are already changing.  Social events are occurring at a much faster rate than we old grey beards want or even recognize.  Me?  I detest what my beloved sports have become.

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Enjoyed the article Alex, lots of good points.

 

NIL has impacted recruiting and has influenced decisions to transfer, no doubt. CFB (and CBB) players have far more power today then they have ever had, no doubt. Roster management in CFB today has become more difficult than managing a roster in the NFL. But with coaches being paid multi-millions of dollars to coach CBB and CFB, IMO, it's more than time to finally give the athletes a piece of the pie.

 

As you so noted, when more money was offered how much loyalty did Mel Tucker, Brian Kelly, Lincoln Riley and Mario Cristobal show to their respective employer, and to the young men they had recruited and left behind? I don't like Dye headed to LA for more money but I certainly 'get it.'

 

Notwithstanding what went on with A+M's CFB recruiting in 2022, I don't believe you can 'buy' a CFB football championship. Maybe CBB, but not CFB. For the most part, top players are going to matriculate at the school they believe gives them the best shot at the NFL.

 

Looking back over decades and decades of CFB, I don't believe parity at the championship level has ever existed. The names may change from time to time, but year after year a hand full or so of CFB teams have a true shot at a championship. I don't believe that NIL and the transfer portal is going to pave the way for Rutgers to win a CFB championship.

 

We have a 4 team playoff field through the 2025 season. IMO, missing out on a recruit or two and having a few guys transfer in or out will not materially affect the Ducks chances to win the Pac-12 and make the CFB Final 4. 

 

The CFB playoff calculus for the Ducks remains the same through 2025. Go 13-0 and the Ducks is in the final 4. Go 12-1 and the Ducks should be in the final 4. So, let's sit back, relax and enjoy Oregon football and the other Oregon sports.

 

 

 

 

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I agree with Charles and Mr. Joseph, with an even rosier outlook for some programs. I would argue many programs have been playing the NIL type game for a while. Most have suffered, and the ones doing it right have, mostly, succeeded.

 

This is my basic philosophy of life, I think there will always be good and evil. Trying to put down all evil is like playing whack a mole, it will always rise up somewhere else. In college football there has always been the programs which go after the Reggie Bush's and Cam Newton's and some succeed. Others go after the student athletes who want an education and the best opportunity to get the NFL.

 

I think Oregon can really make a name for itself if they continue to be a program that enables players to make the NFL while expanding their educational opportunities. What Oregon needs to do is to get ahead of educating these student athletes on how to manage money and the opportunities which present themselves. We already lead on academic help with the Jaqua Center. We now need another element to teach them how to deal with these new opportunities.

 

If we fall into the same group as the A&M's and just give massive money to student athletes we will fail like many entering this new era. I think we will position ourselves uniquely as we have many times in the past. I look forward to Oregon staying above the fray, for the most part. We can knock down all the negative impacts, but we can become one of the success stories and create even more capable student athletes in this new transfer, NIL era. I can hope so, can't I?

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Great article and great replies!

 

I think it's far enough out of my element that I would not be confident making any specific predictions, but I'd say I agree with most of what everyone has said so far.

 

The more mercenary it gets, the less I am going to care, but that has been happening to me for decades. It's one reason why I don't pay for cable so that I can get the PAC 12 network - which I could then complain about since it doesn't show the content I want to see.

 

In general, I agree with the general sentiment (I think) of most, well-said by Haywarduck. Sort of a biblical truthism: To those who have, more will be given; to those who do not have, even more will be taken away.

 

My guess is that Oregon will end up on the "those who have" side. Whether they will have enough to defeat the biggest fish remains to be determined.

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Really great topic, Alex. I think you and the other writers in Charles' stable of talented contributors are doing a consistently great job of effectively presenting topics that lend themselves to lively discussions. Keep up the good work!

 

Now, on to my reaction. Trying--as always--to look at myself in the mirror as I reply, this will be another "old coot" response, I'm afraid. I mention that not as an apology, but rather with the feeling that the changes in college football are just harder for us seniors (at least those of us with most of our memory cells still intact) to accept. 

 

When I look at the current situation in college football, my mind goes back to the root of the problem IMO: the NBA. It's been quite awhile since the NBA and the networks carrying them sold out to STAR POWER. Fabulous TEAMS like the Pistons of Ben Wallace and the Spurs of Tim Duncan were "boring," and team basketball with strong defense was not appealing to the masses. (Not saying they were wrong.) So, the focus of games promoted shifted to LeBron, Harden, Russell (Triple Double) Westbrook, Durant, and Steph. And, of course, the salary structure of the league has grown to support that notion. Today, LeBron basically runs the NBA.

 

The NFL, with their different collective bargaining agreement, has avoided some of that problem, but not entirely. With so many more players involved in the game, it's inherently more of a team sport than basketball. Even so, the league has slowly, steadily evolved into one that features star players to try to attract fans. The salary disparity between the star players and the marginal talent in the league has never been greater.

 

I think we're now seeing a trickle-down effect from those two pro sports to their college counterparts. A couple of college athletes will make a bunch of money; a lot of other college athletes will make a little bit of money. I don't see NIL really solving anything. I think the ones who make a lot of money in college will generally have shortened college careers, turn pro as soon as they can, and then make a whole bunch more money.

 

The transfer portal, I think, is entirely different. Players want to play. High school kids (and college coaching staffs) don't really know how well a kid's performance at the high school level will translate to the college level. A lot of factors contribute to a pretty substantial "miss" rate. The transfer portal just allows for a course correction in that process. As a fan, it's usually tough to lose a kid from your program, but it's often equally good to gain a kid from another program. While most of us old-timers long for the days of kids sticking with the program through thick and thin, those days are gone. The best ones leave early; the worst ones transfer out. 

 

Oh, well. I'll still watch college football. What else am I gonna do on a Saturday?

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On 3/28/2022 at 11:22 AM, WiseKwacker said:

Oh, well. I'll still watch college football. What else am I gonna do on a Saturday?

Great post.  Thanks for the "thanks," as I like to think that we are pretty good at "Opinion-Editorial" articles, and those type of articles feed into the forum wonderfully and generate discussion.

 

For those who like to write for fun as the FD writers do....we will have some slots open--email me:  charles@fishduck.com  

Mr. FishDuck

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One thing I’ve seen Lanning mention repeatedly is his excitement about the Nike based NIL opportunities at the UO.


Being the way ahead of the curve innovator that he is, it may be a good idea for him to lead the path forward for the UO’s NIL education program. That alone could keep the entire Duck machine ahead of the curve.

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I'm just not going to worry about it.  I used to be a huge basketball fan - season tickets to Pepperdine basketball, occasionally Laker and Clipper games (even courtside a couple of times), always watching the playoffs and many regular season games, etc.

 

Then my favorite team became the Portland Jail Blazers - thugs and criminals galore.  The game itself was no longer fun, as Pat Riley ground out 85 - 76 wins with the Knicks.  The whole NBA devolved into super teams, unlikeable stars like James Harden and Kyrie Irving pouting their way off every team, etc.  

 

Simultaneously Pepperdine basketball, once the premier program in California, fell on hard times with a series of bad coaching hires.  One-and-done meant no continuity and no one to follow (or even to hate).

 

So I largely stopped following the NBA.

 

And you know what?  My life went on.  I got even more into Ducks football.  I got into fantasy football.  I started watching international soccer (just watched Portugal/Turkey over the weekend).  And I did a bunch of other things with my time and money.  

 

In short, I was perfectly fine.  Still am.

 

So as long as college football is watchable and enjoyable, I'll watch and enjoy it.  If at some point it reaches the point where I'm no longer enjoying it, I'll move on.  I hope that doesn't happen, but if it does...oh, well.  There's nothing I can do to slow it or stop it, so I'm not going to expend energy worrying about it.

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On 3/28/2022 at 11:47 AM, Kurt Rambis said:

So as long as college football is watchable and enjoyable, I'll watch and enjoy it. 

And my game-plan is that as long as there is Oregon football--there will be a safe place in the OBD forum to discuss it!

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Mr. FishDuck

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Alex you ask "Do you believe it’ll settle once the nation has grown accustomed to the new NIL regulations, or has the NFL’s superstar empowerment movement put us past the point of no return?"

 

"Settle" is an interesting word.  I do not think things will settle down, I think new wrinkles will continue to develop and we will grow accustom to unsettling.

 

And Yes, we are past the point of no return with player power in college football.  We have survived it in the pros (for those who still watch) and now will learn to survive it in college or just turn off the damn TV (Amazon prime reading anyone?).

 

Lastly, I really hope we NEVER see the refs protect the star players like they do in the pros (I'm looking at 3 and 1/2 steps in basketball without traveling calls unless you're an unproven rookie, and Tom Brady not being allowed to fall on his ash without a flag).  As of now we already see it in regard to refs being afraid of some coaches so those teams get favorable calls.

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On 3/28/2022 at 11:47 AM, Kurt Rambis said:

I'm just not going to worry about it.  I used to be a huge basketball fan - season tickets to Pepperdine basketball, occasionally Laker and Clipper games (even courtside a couple of times), always watching the playoffs and many regular season games, etc.

Darn it, you are ruining my fantasy that the NBA Kurt Rambis is here on the forum with me!

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On 3/28/2022 at 12:12 PM, Steven A said:

and Tom Brady not being allowed to fall on his ash without a flag). 

And Scam Newton getting hit so hard you could hear it in Mars.  

 

But that's ok- he didn't fumble, his arm collapsed.  That's an incomplete pass ( not to mention the other incomplete pass Cliff Harris had full control of).

 

Sorry, no sack-fumble-TD ( No INT, and for your trouble they throw a TD after the INT).

 

Too late, eSECspn beat us to the punch

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On 3/29/2022 at 10:45 AM, Mike West said:

And Scam Newton getting hit so hard you could hear it in Mars.  

 

But that's ok- he didn't fumble, his arm collapsed.  That's an incomplete pass ( not to mention the other incomplete pass Cliff Harris had full control of).

 

Sorry, no sack-fumble-TD ( No INT, and for your trouble they throw a TD after the INT).

 

Too late, eSECspn beat us to the punch

I love how 'us old guys' can hold a grudge! I still have a mad-on for B1G refs. I'm a long time Pats fan but not when $CAM was the starting QB.

 

The $EC: If you ain't cheatin', you ain't tryin'. It Just Means More! Except when it comes to academics.

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On 3/29/2022 at 3:47 AM, Viking Duck said:

Darn it, you are ruining my fantasy that the NBA Kurt Rambis is here on the forum with me!

When I played, I had the Rambis glasses and mustache, if that helps.

 

Not to mention the impressive leaping ability...

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