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cartm25

Pac-12 Roster Talent Comparison

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That just under 91 grade is saying the overall roster rates out as a lowish 4 star the way the 247 composite works. I would be interesting to see what our 1st team offense and defense units rate out. The defense with Flowe, Sewell, Manning, Funa, DJ all being top 100 guys might rate out to 94 or so?

 

The 247 composite has 32 kids who are 5 stars and considered 1st round draft picks, they are all 99-98.5 grade or so

A 98.5 to a 97.5 or so is a 2nd rounder - 97.5 to 95.5 3rd rounder

 

A 91.5 is late 7th round and the 225th player or so. (side note the ASU DL in the Portal coming to visit us has gone from a HS 3 star to a 91 grade as a transfer, so he is rated as being close to a 7th round pick)

 

I look at it as if the NFL looks at all the 90 grade ( A students) but the low A students don't make to the NFL where they take the best. 

 

The 247 Composite goes down to around the #350 player being a 4 star. Or about 10 draft rounds of 4 stars with 89.5 grade kids making the 4 star cut, trey round up I guess. 

 

The number of kids who are elite in the 99-98 range pales in comparisons on the amount of top end 3 stars. 

89.4 - 87.5 will be 200 some odd players in that range, the #351 to 550 or so.

 

The gap from a low 4 star to high 3 star isn't that big and there are probably 100 kids in that between a 89.9 to 89.1.

 

Veron Mckinnley was an 88 grade 3 star, Mykel Wright was a low 98 grade 4 star and neither got drafted. Justin Herbert was a 85 grade rated around the #650 player and went 1st round.

 

The rating are all educated projections, but they have flaws. Some kids peak early and don't progress, others progress tons in college. Plus a kid like Herbert played summer baseball and didn't do the all the Camps that scouts could see him at and he was hurt in HS. 

 

 

Edited by DazeNconfused
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Hythloday talked about that a bit in the podcast I joined him on (that's up today at Addicted To Quack). I believe that he will have an article coming up in the near future regarding the metrics of his tweet.

Edited by Badwater
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On 5/12/2022 at 9:50 AM, Badwater said:

Hythloday talked about that a bit in the podcast I joined him on (that's up today at Addicted To Quack). I believe that he will have an article coming up in the near future regarding the metrics of his tweet.

The 247 Composite dumbs it down for me.

Rivals Top 250 goes from a 6.1 to 5.8 

Top 247 goes from a 99.9 to a 91, using that I can process where a kid stacks up better.

 

There are lots of Factors, I've seen a high school kid can't play a lick of baseball have a great SPARC score and be a Prospect.

 

Manning was a 98 grade 5 star on 247, and this will be his third year. I'm looking for him to do justice to his ranking this year and that means halfway through this year we start talking about him being a lockdown corner. If he doesn't then I'll start to wonder if he was one of those Camp Tour kids with the high SPARC score that carried him to a 5 star and not his ball skills.

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It shows quite clearly how the impact of Chris Petersen recruiting at Washington...how good he was and how quickly that impact is fading as the years pass and the roster turns over due to the new staffs.  Peterson had the Huskies right there with Oregon and USC in recruiting, and that advantage over the rest of the conference is fading fast for the Huskies.

 

The gap between and Oregon/USC and the rest of the conference is impressive or disconcerting--however you wish to view it.  

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Mr. FishDuck

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On 5/12/2022 at 10:34 AM, Charles Fischer said:

The gap between and Oregon/USC and the rest of the conference is impressive or disconcerting--however you wish to view it. 

It's a great point, and with what I think you could only say is a near total collapse at UW and Stanford/UCLA/ASU all seeming to struggle right now, it really puts the pressure on the teams that 'on paper' should be dominating everyone else, at least in the eyes of national perception.

 

Utah is the wild card, and I am glad for them because if you took them out of the conference last year, it would have been a bleak year indeed, outside of the win at tOSU.

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On 5/12/2022 at 10:34 AM, Charles Fischer said:

It shows quite clearly how the impact of Chris Peterson recruiting at Washington...how good he was and how quickly that impact is fading as the years pass and the roster turns over due to the new staffs.  Peterson had the Huskies right there with Oregon and USC in recruiting, and that advantage over the rest of the conference is fading fast for the Huskies.

 

The gap between and Oregon/USC and the rest of the conference is impressive or disconcerting--however you wish to view it.  

Yes, UW had talent and Jimmy Lake was a Top Shelf DB coach and recruiter. I don't rate him very high as a DC or HC, but he is a home run hire as a DB coach. 

 

USC's problem was Helton's recruiting and culture. USC has only like one 4-star OL recruit or 2 max, and Helton didn't recruit the DL well. 

 

Helton got heavy blue-chip skill and DB kids where Mario had more balance and depth to his roster. 

 

Mario also really hurt Stanford as the west coast school OL recruits were going to with that  pro style run heavy, play action offense. Shaw wasn't getting the elite OL kids he needs to make that offense anymore like it did. Gaffeny, Gerhart, Taylor those teams pounded the rock.

 

Didn't Stanford run for like 300 plus yards in Helfs last year with Hooke as the DC? They must have been 3rd and 1 or 2 yards a dozen times and converted. That year was brutal to watch.

Edited by DazeNconfused
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On 5/12/2022 at 10:59 AM, Viking Duck said:

 

Utah is the wild card, and I am glad for them because if you took them out of the conference last year, it would have been a bleak year indeed, outside of the win at tOSU.

That's down to K Whitt being a great HC and developing 3-star kids in his program physically/playbook smart. 

Scalley has been the best DC in the Pac for few years.

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On 5/12/2022 at 10:59 AM, DazeNconfused said:

Mario also really hurt Stanford as the west coast school OL recruits were going to with that run pro style run heavy, play action offense. Shaw wasn't getting the elite OL kids he needs to make that offense anymore like it did. Gaffeny, Gerhart, Taylor those teams pounded the rock.

Great point - I always felt like Stanford has that advantage of being truly a school with 'academic prowess' but of course that limits their recruiting on the other hand. But for some years, if you had a huge, powerful O-line type who is also smart enough to be a rocket scientist, you knew who he'd be playing for 😄

 

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On 5/12/2022 at 11:05 AM, Viking Duck said:

Great point - I always felt like Stanford has that advantage of being truly a school with 'academic prowess' but of course that limits their recruiting on the other hand. But for some years, if you had a huge, powerful O-line type who is also smart enough to be a rocket scientist, you knew who he'd be playing for 😄

 

Back when Shaw took over, they won a Rose Bowl Gaffeny's senior year, and signed two 5-star tackles and a pair of 4-star interior OL in the same class.

 

Contrast that 2021 when Mario signed Kingsley, Bram Walden, JPJ, and Jonah Miller. All 4-stars and the highest rated OL kids on the west coast, I think? For sure got the top two in Kinglsey and Bram. Then Lanning/Klemm got Connerly and Luli this year. 

 

The Ducks are OL U on the West Coast and I betcha Klemm keeps it that way.

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all in all a fairly depressing table from the league perspective. I can’t help but think the total league average results put the PAC at or near the bottom of the power 5 heap.

 

studies show 76% of people make up statistics.

 

 

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To me it's just 1 tool in a large tool box. Nothing can account for a kids heart and discipline. Then the variables of life thrown in and all you have is probabilities

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Speaking of Fisch...Look at Arizona and what Jed Fisch has done there! I hope he doesn't keep that up b/c if he does, we all might be in trouble! It would behoove us to bear down and keep working b/c he's working a turn-around down south that could cause everyone trouble for years to come. (not that we don't already have a problem dropping games in the desert that we shouldn't 🙄)

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Your last statement has been a head scratcher of mine for 30 years.

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On 5/12/2022 at 10:34 AM, Charles Fischer said:

It shows quite clearly how the impact of Chris Petersen recruiting at Washington...how good he was and how quickly that impact is fading as the years pass and the roster turns over due to the new staffs.  Peterson had the Huskies right there with Oregon and USC in recruiting, and that advantage over the rest of the conference is fading fast for the Huskies.

 

The gap between and Oregon/USC and the rest of the conference is impressive or disconcerting--however you wish to view it.  

The big thing also is that even though we are a few years out from the Petersen era it still has an even longer lasting effect due to the 2020 COVID year where everyone had an extra year of eligibility. 

 

A lot of Washington players stayed and a good few are still around because of that extra time. It has preserved some talent that would have otherwise moved on. 

 

However, with that said it is still impressive in a way home "good" Washington's recruiting rankings still are because they have seen a pretty big exodus the past year or two. 

 

Stanford has also been hit pretty hard with talent leaving due to the transfer portal. I have said it multiple times but I'll say it again... Stanford's policy of not allowing their student athletes to just roll into a master's program after they get their bachelor's degree leads to a lot of talent leaving when they still have eligibility. Additionally, as any transfer has to apply and be accepted they really can't make any use of the transfer portal. 

 

Oregon has a ton of potential firepower and I believe had a blue chip ratio high enough to win big right now. Let's see what these coaches can do this year. 

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On 5/12/2022 at 1:04 PM, Wrathis said:

Speaking of Fisch...Look at Arizona and what Jed Fisch has done there! I hope he doesn't keep that up b/c if he does, we all might be in trouble!

I'll admit. So far I've been impressed and pleased with what's been going on at Arizona. I will stop feeling this way when they accomplish more than just being the best team in their state. 

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Shows just how bad of coaches Helton and Lake were.  All that talent to get 8 wins between them.  How was Stanford so bad?  Hats off to WSU for winning some games with basically no talent compared to the rest of the conference.

 

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Given this clearly significant finding why is WSU widely considered a threat in the North for so many next season?

 

Coaching, the Second Coming of the Throwin' Samoan, 'gimmicky' schemes, Keith Jackson Factor, Gameday Flag Karma....?

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