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30Duck

Some Simmering Pac-12 Predictions

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I agree with some of these, but I still pick Oregon to beat BYU, and by the end of the season I like the Ducks over the Utes at home...and I don't agree that Fresno State is going to beat USC, UCLA looks about right, and so is the call on EWW Dub.

 

 

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247SPORTS.COM

My colleague Jared Mack posted his Pac-12 season predictions a day ago. Here are mine. For context, the two of us recored an...

 

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On 6/14/2022 at 1:33 PM, 30Duck said:

I agree with some of these, but I still pick Oregon to beat BYU, and by the end of the season I like the Ducks over the Utes at home...and I don't agree that Fresno State is going to beat USC, UCLA looks about right, and so is the call on EWW Dub.

 

 

10690196.jpg
247SPORTS.COM

My colleague Jared Mack posted his Pac-12 season predictions a day ago. Here are mine. For context, the two of us recored an...

 

Sorry I cannot take any stock in what that guy ever says. There is no way Utah beats Oregon in Eugene as it's not going to happen. Oregon should end their 12 game season with 1 loss and that will be to Georgia. Oregon with their AD went out and got the best that money could buy to coach these players. Now with success Oregon will need to pay their coaches better money to keep these coaches here for hopefully three seasons. When and if they do decide to leave the coaches that replace them keeps the machine running smooth.

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I find 9-3 for Oregon to be a low bar. 

 

The roster is strong on paper and with the amount of inuries and poor scheming Oregon managed 10-4 (10 regular season wins).

 

I think beating Georgia is a long shot but not impossible so let's give Oregon the L for that one. 

 

Otherwise I can see Oregon lose one more game on the schedule but maybe not 2. BYU will be a major pain but they have to come to Oregon to play and by that point Oregon will be a hardened team that understands Lanning's vision. 

 

Utah could also be tough, it's never an easy game, but that's a late season game and if the injury bug hasn't hit Oregon too badly I do think they can out scheme the problems last year. 

 

I will say it again... Utah was the only team that understood and could stop Oregon last year (not counting Stanford they had too much ref help and other circumstances). Utah knew that they sell out to stop the run and challenge Brown to pass the ball while overwhelming the offensive line they will force him to make mistakes. Brown also too frequently stated to play hero ball when behind which would lead to more mistakes. 

 

Oregon under the Cristobal era struggled to play from behind both on the scoreboard and behind schedule on the series of downs. 

 

This new staff is just better at xs and os and even with Nix, who has his own issues, he can at least stretch the field. 

 

Simply put this Oregon team is not going to be vulnerable to the same way last year's team was. 

 

I'm going super optimistic... Oregon 11-1 regular season. 

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On 6/14/2022 at 3:54 PM, David Marsh said:

 

Utah could also be tough, it's never an easy game, but that's a late season game and if the injury bug hasn't hit Oregon too badly I do think they can out scheme the problems last year. 

 

I will say it again... Utah was the only team that understood and could stop Oregon last year (not counting Stanford they had too much ref help and other circumstances). Utah knew that they sell out to stop the run and challenge Brown to pass the ball while overwhelming the offensive line they will force him to make mistakes. Brown also too frequently stated to play hero ball when behind which would lead to more mistakes. 

 

This is spot on.   The crazy thing was that Oregon (MC) didn’t make any meaningful adjustments in the 2nd game.  AB was a total liability in both games and Utah exploited it.  Not going to happen with Bo.  Also the emotion flips to the Ducks in the revenge game.

 

No way Oregon goes 9-3, especially if they beat Utah - which I think is probable playing in Eugene.  Loss to Georgia, and one stumble - maybe.

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Guest Axel
On 6/14/2022 at 2:54 PM, David Marsh said:

I'm going super optimistic... Oregon 11-1 regular season.

This is a reasonable expectation. We can expect some close calls along the way and the corresponding heart palpitations, but Coach Lanning and his staff can certainly guide the Ducks past BYU and Utah at home.

 

It's always a happy occasion when the Ducks are scheduled at home versus Washington. The annual drubbing of the Huskies takes place this year on November 12 in Eugene. Be sure to get your rabies inoculation well in advance in case of the unhappy occasion that your seat is uncomfortably close to a Husky fan.

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On 6/14/2022 at 6:53 PM, Axel said:

It's always a happy occasion when the Ducks are scheduled at home versus Washington. The annual drubbing of the Huskies takes place this year on November 12 in Eugene. Be sure to get your rabies inoculation well in advance in case of the unhappy occasion that your seat is uncomfortably close to a Husky fan.

This will also be the first time the Huskies play at Oregon since 2018!!!!! 

 

Even though Husky fans say otherwise they forfeited the game against Oregon in 2020 when they couldn't field a team. 

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On 6/14/2022 at 8:34 PM, David Marsh said:

Even though Husky fans say otherwise they forfeited the game against Oregon in 2020 when they couldn't field a team

Excellent point. We can never expect Husky fans to act the least bit rationally. I think it's proof that their purple and asbestos colors cause them some kind of brain damage. Or is it purple and mercury? I know it's purple and some kind of metal. It can't be a valuable metal, that's for sure.

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On 6/14/2022 at 9:06 PM, Axel said:

Excellent point. We can never expect Husky fans to act the least bit rationally. I think it's proof that their purple and asbestos colors cause them some kind of brain damage. Or is it purple and mercury? I know it's purple and some kind of metal. It can't be a valuable metal, that's for sure.

I wish I had a reaction icon that is slapping the top of a table reacting to a post--as that is what I would have posted to yours!

 

Huskies would never go near you; too many 3rd-degree burns applied to them to want to get close to you!

Mr. FishDuck

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Guest Axel
On 6/14/2022 at 9:41 PM, Charles Fischer said:

Huskies would never go near you; too many 3rd-degree burns applied to them to want to get close to you!

It is true that I never want to miss an opportunity to ridicule those mangy, mirthless mutts from up North. Like Diogenes, who searched hither and yon for an honest man, I have yet to find a Husky fan with an I.Q. higher than Scooby-Doo.

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On 6/14/2022 at 9:06 PM, Axel said:

Excellent point. We can never expect Husky fans to act the least bit rationally. I think it's proof that their purple and asbestos colors cause them some kind of brain damage. Or is it purple and mercury? I know it's purple and some kind of metal. It can't be a valuable metal, that's for sure.

It's just purple. 

 

Purple and anything cause madness. 

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I think this year's team may be harder to project that almost any other I remember.  New staff, new systems for every position group, new backfield, etc.

 

The wildcard will be QB play.  If one of the QBs emerges as a clear starter and plays at a high level, I could see a one-loss season.  If Nix is our starter, I'm concerned that some killer picks could undermine otherwise good games for the team.  If it's Thompson or Butterfield, inexperience could kill us against a team like Utah or BYU.  If we're switching out QBs like we did a couple of years ago, or have an entrenched starter who's merely OK, I could see a three or four loss season.

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Alright, I'm gonna be that guy...

 

I'm guilty of seeing things through green/yellow glasses as much as the next person, and I'm hoping that we kill it this year.  However, we have a TOUGH schedule and we need to keep that in mind. Thankfully, aside from Georgia and the Beavs, we get the toughest games at home.

 

Bear in mind though, we have a brand new head coach and there WILL BE some learning curves. We're hoping those won't cost us a game, but it very well could.

 

We also have an Offensive Coordinator who did great things at Memphis/Auburn, but didn't accomplish much at FSU. Granted, his offense does produce 1,000 yard receivers...which takes us to our next point; 

1,000 yard receivers have legitimate QB's and we have questions. (I'm as high on Butterfield as anyone right now) Nix may offer the highest ceiling, and we hope the highest floor. However, we know his propensity for making inexplicable, bone-headed plays. That in itself may cost us a game or two.

 

Inexplicable turnovers brings us to defense. This is where we expect to win games. Sure, but what do we really know about Tosh apart from his time at Alabama where Axel could probably look good calling the plays. He spent 1 year at 3 different NFL programs after having spent 1 season at Cal and 2 with that team up North. Maybe that's bc he's a hot commodity that everyone wants him coaching, or maybe that's not it at all. What we know for sure is that he (along with the rest of the staff) are phenomenal recruiters. I do know we didn't rank in the top 50 last year for sacks, yards, interceptions, fumble recoveries or TD's. (#75 overall, injuries be damned)

 

At the end of the day I just want to temper expectations. Expecting 11-1 with a completely brand new staff, new schemes, a new QB and new players that played less than 100 meaningful snaps last year seems reckless at best. Those kind of expectations inevitably lead to knee-jerk reactions when growing pains are encountered. We do have the most talent-laden roster in the PAC-12. We have the best O-line in the conference. We have some real high upside to look forward to. I LOVE our WR room as you can't coach height into a player. I love the explosiveness of Cardwell and what little I've seen of Dollars so far. But we also have a lot of questions on both sides of the ball that will need to be answered. 

 

All that being said, I expect we drop the "neutral site" game with Georgia. BYU dominated our conference last year, I expect them to be tougher this year. Bc of our "newness" we may lose that one (but learn a lot in doing so). Also, every year we inexplicably lose some game we have no business losing. Last year that was Stanford, in years past it's been one of the Arizona teams (usually on the road). I expect we have that game as well this year, possibly Cal on the road as they always play us tough...and boo me off stage if you want, but I'm not convinced we win the I-5 Fiasco this year in Corvallis, nor do we take the Utes even though we get them at home. Maybe we find a way to steal one of those...

 

And so without any further ado, I'm expecting 8-4 and anything above that is icing on the cake. Two years from now when everyone is gelling and systems are solidly in place (assuming we keep the staff together), then I'll start making calls for CFP inclusion. Until then I'm going to enjoy the ride and look for growth every game. Geaux DUCKS!

 

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I expect great things from DL. I see a beatdown of everybody except Georgia. Plus BN's experience in the SEC will be of great things in the lowly PAC.

 

2 things from last year--Injuries, opt outs and a team that was beaten by its own coach. This years team will have the fire!!

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On 6/14/2022 at 11:17 PM, David Marsh said:

It's just purple. 

 

I think purple is the color before Gang Green takes over.

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On 6/14/2022 at 10:06 PM, Axel said:

I have yet to find a Husky fan with an I.Q. higher than Scooby-Doo.

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Being an optimist with green colored glasses, I'm going to assume that Dillingham gets more out of the talent on the offensive side then Mario ever could.  

 

Also I think special teams is going to be a huge difference maker for us this year.  we were horrendous the last couple years considering the talent we have that alone is worth at least 1 game.  

 

In Dan I trust so on the defensive side I think scheme and talent will combine to improve our defense noticeably.   Not to mention a few less injuries this year (knock on wood).  

 

Overall a loss to Georgia and Utah 10-2 in the regular season and then we come back in a thriller to beat Utah in a rematch in the title game.  

 

Then we beat Michigan in the Rose bowl.  🙂 

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On 6/15/2022 at 12:57 PM, Quackerbacker said:

Being an optimist with green colored glasses, I'm going to assume that Dillingham gets more out of the talent on the offensive side then Mario ever could. 

This is completely reasonable. Moorhead was an incredible hire but wasted in his ability. 

 

More and more we have seen and heard that Cristobal restrained his coordinators and in particular the offense. 

 

Due to the 2020 mess we really didn't see the Moorhead offense take shape until 2021. But I think there were two factors why Moorhead left... 1. Health wise I think there is an appeal of going to a quieter school with less strenuous recruiting needs and .. 2. Get away from Cristobal because Cristobal's offensive restraints were hurting Moorhead's reputation. 

 

Lanning wants a high powered offense and he hired someone who wants to give him just that. Lanning is going to enable Dillingham to score points and not handcuff him in the process.

 

We all were so much more engerized as a fan base after the spring game seeing what this offense could become.

 

I think Oregon averages close to 40 points per game this year, compared to the sub 35 of the previous years. This will get Oregon to around 10 wins easy but I think it probably gets them to 11 regular season wins. 

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