An Arms Race to be First 20-Team Super-Conference. Big Ten or SEC? That's the End Game

[DazeNconfused]

We can sit here wringing our hands but let call this what it is.

 

The B1G is playing chess not checkers. This is AFL vrs NFL type stuff.

 

I think the B1G is going for the throat here and not going to let the SEC be the first Super Conference. They got USC and UCLA so they need 4 more schools, and they can go West / East Divisions. 

 

So, they need 4 more west or southwest teams. They can go add UW, UO, Stanford, Notre Dame and throw USC, UCLA, Minnestoa, Indiana, Nebraska and Iowa in the West. They have pierced the Pac 12 so taking their pick of the rest they want is logical. 

 

If they don't want Stanford and they can't get Notre Dame, then they can grab Baylor and Texas Tech for the SW footprint. 

 

It's a smart move by the B1G as they are the only Conference with the clout to steer a counter move to the SEC expansion. 

 

The B1G could get UW, UO and make a run at Clemson and Miami...  it's all about making 20 teams and doing it first so they get to pick before the SEC. 

 

Travel is going to increase but that's the price you pay for having the coast-to-coast conference that will bring the B1G the big TV MONEY

 

Of course, the SEC could counter and go after Clemson, UNC, Miam, Notre Dame.

 

This is a race to 20 teams, and you want to be the first!

Edited July 1, 2022 by DazeNconfused

[DazeNconfused]

We have to admit the B1G kept this quiet and launched the counterattack to the SEC in impressive fashion.

 

We are talking Billions in TV money, this is serious stuff

Edited July 1, 2022 by DazeNconfused

[Quackerbacker]

This all about the money.  It sounds like Washington and Oregon may have already applied for admission to the Big 10 and that makes total sense. 

 

It will be interesting to see what the light of day tomorrow has in store for us.   

[DazeNconfused]

On 6/30/2022 at 8:51 PM, DazeNconfused said:

 

I don't really want this for the Ducks BUT.............   I HATE the SEC so if this is how it goes, I hope this sneak attack put the SEC on the defensive!

Edited July 1, 2022 by DazeNconfused

[DazeNconfused]

 

 

Edited July 1, 2022 by DazeNconfused

[2002duck]

The LA Times reported at 6pm that the Big 10 isn't adding anymore PAC teams at this time. 

 

Bad. Very, very bad.

[CalBear95]

On 6/30/2022 at 9:37 PM, 2002duck said:

The LA Times reported at 6pm that the Big 10 isn't adding anymore PAC teams at this time. 

 

Bad. Very, very bad.

That would be an odd move to let the P10 merge with the B12.  Why let the 6th, 11th, 12th, and 21st media markets go elsewhere ahead of media negotiations?

[David Marsh]

On 6/30/2022 at 9:37 PM, 2002duck said:

The LA Times reported at 6pm that the Big 10 isn't adding anymore PAC teams at this time. 

 

Bad. Very, very bad.

Best thing for them to say right now. It has been a super chaotic day and this slows things down a bit. 

 

[eVOLed]

Sorry, as an SEC guy and football fan, I hate to see this for college football but here's my take.

 

The SEC blindsided the B12 by stealing TX and OK. The B1G has responded by blindsiding the P12 and stealing USC and UCLA.

 

Notre Dame is the next "high value" target and it's almost certain to go to the B1G BUT they need a pair of teams, not just ND. Would Oregon go without Washington? or vice versa?

 

The B1G has the upper hand on the SEC because ND isn't coming south and the ACC has the big buyout until 2035. The SEC is hamstrung unless the ACC caves entirely and waives the 50 million??? buyout for a team to leave.

 

Just asking. Does Oregon split the TV market and leave Washington?

[2002duck]

On 6/30/2022 at 10:38 PM, eVOLed said:

 

Just asking. Does Oregon split the TV market and leave Washington?

I'm sure they would, it's business. Oregon would bail for the Big 10 at the drop of hat at this point, and you couldn't blame them for doing so. Blame USC and UCLA. Blame the Big 10. Don't blame any one at all. Schools should be trying to get the best deals possible for themselves.

[Charles Fischer]

On 6/30/2022 at 10:38 PM, eVOLed said:

Would Oregon go without Washington?

OK...your funnin' me...right?  "Would we want to leave our bitter rival in the dust with a subpar conference while we go on to greater revenues and future?"

 

You portray a dream scenario!

 

But I do not think it would happen as Seattle is a much bigger market, and hard for a conference to ignore.  BTW...great to see you back!  (And you are always welcome to stop by and jump in)

[eVOLed]

Thanks for the answer. I'm not well versed in the PAC12 and I want to be respectful here. These are dark days.

 

I DO believe the B1G will pursue Notre Dame and the Domers are not a lock because I think there's a huge "we're independent because we've always been independent" sentiment in their donors.

 

The money...... if they took Oregon, Washington, Stanford, and Notre Dame..... is just silly.

 

It forces the SEC to try to break the ACC to keep up.

 

The big losers here are schools like Baylor. Imagine having the Waco market. I've not got a great grasp of TX but I'm assuming UTx, aTm, and maybe even TCU might have bigger TV markets than Waco.

[Charles Fischer]

It's going to be hard to even look at a USC or UCLA fan without spitting on the ground in their direction and calling them dirty.  Such a dishonest blindside...

 

After all these years of competing--you don't even ask the Pac-12 for more money?  Don't even try to squeeze WSU, OSU and Arizona for less money to give the LA schools a bigger share?  We don't even deserve a "heads-up" after all these years?

 

What a dirty, scummy way of doing business with partners that helped you make money. Never mind your losing record to Oregon for the last 20 years.

 

Sorry about the rant...kinda lost control.

[DCDuckfan]

For me, at this point the only outcome that would be exciting is for Oregon to join the B1G or the SEC.  Out of those two, only B1G is remotely on the table so I'll be hoping that's where we land. 

 

I would love watching games annually against Michigan, OSU, Penn St, Nebraska, USC, UCLA, Michigan St, Iowa, Wisconsin, etc.  Obviously not all on the schedule annually, but there would be 3-4 incredible conference games every year plus 1-2 a great OOC game sprinkled in (talking football only). 

 

Another huge win would be the bowl games Oregon would have access to which would be a huge upgrade.  Currently it's either the CFP or Rosebowl...otherwise its a 3rd tier bowl as the only option for Pac teams.

Edited July 1, 2022 by DCDuckfan

[David Marsh]

Here's the funny thing... 

 

I think Oregon is in a way better position than some think and it all comes down to the biggest win of last season. Oregon going into the Shoe and beating Ohio State. 

 

That is a huge game changer for all involved because now Oregon can say... "Yeah, we can compete and beat your top programs, we can handle the B1G." 

 

Utah, the evential pac-12 champ, didn't take down Ohio State, and Ohio State was down some major players. On the flip side Oregon was down some key players and beat Ohio State, granted Oregon suffered so many injuries last year that by the time the end of the season rolled around they were a shadow of themselves... Again Oregon played walk-ons in the Alamo bowl that I have never heard of, and I'm a pretty die hard fan. 

 

Oregon also attracts a ton of eyeballs, I mentioned it in a completely unrelated thread about fan base size and though oregon has a pretty big fan base on the whole, we are not consinteated in one large media market, like LA or Seattle, but we are dispersed accross the country. Furthermore, we may not be everyone's primary team but we are are a lot of people's second team and if Oregon's on, they're watching. 

[DCDuckfan]

On 7/1/2022 at 2:22 AM, Charles Fischer said:

After all these years of competing--you don't even ask the Pac-12 for more money?  Don't even try to squeeze WSU, OSU and Arizona for less money to give the LA schools a bigger share?  We don't even deserve a "heads-up" after all these years?

 

 

I think asking for more money from the schools mentioned would have been a very temporary solution and just put a band-aid on the situation.  Those non-LA schools would have been gutted financially and quickly become non-competitive.  This would have resulted in less money available to USC/UCLA to siphon in the future from those same schools due to smaller piece of the TV revenue pie for the Pac. 

 

Eventually in the not so distant future, USC/UCLA would be at the same decision point and have no choice but to leave.  At that point a good portion of the Pac would be decimated and likely leave those same schools with almost no options. 

 

The separation between B1G/SEC is too great and has reached a point where the only way to stay relevant is to join one of those two conferences. 

 

The fact that USC/UCLA/Texas/OU have made these moves shows that no team is big enough to survive regardless of it's perceived clout.

[DCDuckfan]

One last thought...it would make sense for the B1G to add a couple more Pac teams to ease the scheduling/travel burden for USC/UCLA as well as the current B1G schools.  That would give regional games for at least 2 weeks for each team, not to mention getting an evening prime-time game every week with some exciting variation between opponents.  Imagine a late game of USC/OSU one week, then Oregon/Michigan the next, followed by UCLA/Penn St, etc. 

[McDawg]

Obviously I can’t speak for all the SEC, and I haven’t really talked to many about this subject. But so far the general consensus has been that while it’s a bit of a $$ move on their part (USC & UCLA) the feeling at the moment is that it’s stupid and maybe a dive off the ledge. They’re joining a spread out conference; bi-coastal. The travel costs will increase exponentially. Destroyed natural historical & regional rivals. I’m not sure they will fare well. Look what jumping ship did to other schools: Nebraska has been a dumpster for for 20 years. Missouri thought it’d boost them to upper tier if the SEC but has only given them one division title…and didn’t elevate their recruiting much if at all. Syracuse to the acc thought they could recruit the south and bring back the glory of the 90’s but still languish on the Mendoza line. I can’t really think of a team that jumped their traditional conference that has been successful and I think USC/UCLA will be in deep waters by doing so. Most people think that Texas to the SEC will be bad for them too. SEC folks see Oklahoma as maybe being competitive but not Texas.
When teams realign 1200 miles out of their base, they are getting wayyy out of their “culture.” I’m probably wrong about all of this, but I really think this move won’t help them. Oregon & Washington will be the real winners here; those southern Cal kids don’t want to travel to State College Pa, or Wisconsin & Illinois…in the snow, sleet and cold rain. The PAC can and should survive this, probably  even thrive. Dang, go steal Boise and maybe a BYU. But the PAC IMO will be fine. 

Edited July 1, 2022 by McDawg

[Tandaian]

The travel time is going to be bad for the students, but we are talking peanuts when you talk about travel costs.  B1G TEN schools were going to start receiving 30+ mil more than the pac 12.  Traveling costs will be a few hundred thousand more a year?  Let's even go traveling costs will be 2 million more a year, the schools will still be profiting an addtional 28 mil a year.  

 

Actual travel costs is a non factor.  Travel for students should be a factor, but the schools don't care.

[DazeNconfused]

Let's follow the money...............

 

ESPN and the SEC started this WAR by poaching Texas and Oklahoma and also took the SEC TV rights from CBS to ESPN.

 

ESPN is paying the SEC $300 million a year for 10 years in the deal. Total 3 billion.

 

The Big 10 TV deal with Fox - ESPN expires at the end of the 2022 season.

 

The Pac12 TV deals with Fox - ESPN expire at the end of 2023. 

 

So, the keys here are that the SEC already made their TV deal with ESPN and the Big 10 is next in line to make it's TV deal

ESPN wants to buy some Big 10 games to fill in around its cornerstone of the SEC games. With ESPN, ESPN2, ABC and ESPN-College they need more programing than just the SEC. ESPN is hoping to fill in 2nd tier Big 10, ACC, Big 12 and Pac 12 games.

 

ESPN wants to be the 800-pound gorilla of college football TV. 

 

There are 3 buyers for the BIG 10's next TV deal, CBS-Fox and ESPN. 

 

The Big 10 just added more value to that deal with USC and UCLA.

But if they can make a 20 team Super Conference, they drive that TV deal value up even higher and have enough games for CBS, FOX, FS1 and FS2. 

 

Thats 10 TV games a week for the Big 10 in the East and West divisions every week. Well FOX and CBS can eat all those games up and leave ESPN hung out to dry.  ESPN would be stuck with backfilling in only ACC and Big 12 games. 

 

FOX-CBS are going to pay a ton of money to STOP ESPN from ruling college football TV and a Big 10 Super Conference is what they need. 

 

The BIG 10 is selling full season of programing and a Conference Championship Game, and they will get paid more than the SEC got from ESPN.

 

Now if Notre Dame goes to the Big 10, I don't know what happens to the NBC TV deal, but I'm sure that will work out. 

 

I do know if I'm the Big 10 I'm adding four more teams ASAP and have the leverage of what two Conferences used to have for my TV deal.

 

Edited July 1, 2022 by DazeNconfused

[Tandaian]

Notre Dame TV deal is through 2025.

[Quackerbacker]

That is well laid out Dazenconfused!  So Fox instigates USC and UCLA moving to the Big10 knowing that the PAC-12 can't survive if that happens.   Which in turn leads to the rest of the PAC-12 scrambling to find a landing spot. 

 

With the hope the final outcome is a Big10 Super conference, which will be formed just in time for their new contract to be negotiated with the Big10.  Allowing Fox to outmaneuver ESPN.  

 

It's ALWAYS ABOUT THE MONEY!  

 

 

[McDawg]

As a point of interest:  Oklahoma and Texas petitioned the SEC for admission. They weren't poached.

[NJDuck]

On 7/5/2022 at 5:35 PM, McDawg said:

As a point of interest:  Oklahoma and Texas petitioned the SEC for admission. They weren't poached.

i believe that is correct.

[OregonDucks]

I don't believe that the B1G and SEC will stop at 20, unless they are willing to shed some of the lower performing football programs in their conferences.   The end game could be the B1G (FOX) champion vs. SEC (ESPN) champion for the title.  For this to happen, the B1G and SEC would need all of the top teams.

Edited July 6, 2022 by OregonDucks