DrJacksPlaidPants Moderator No. 1 Share Posted July 11, 2022 What does this mean for the the other conferences? I think everything stays stable for now or at least until Notre Dame decides. SDS sources: SEC wants to end expansion race, stay at 16 teams WWW.SATURDAYDOWNSOUTH.COM 1 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDuck Moderator No. 2 Share Posted July 11, 2022 (edited) I still think the ACC and Pac 12 should have voted to expand CFP. They could most likely assured at least one team champion from each conference an automatic bid into the playoffs. Edited July 11, 2022 by NJDuck 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
kirklandduck Moderator No. 3 Share Posted July 11, 2022 Doesn't change the calculus for me. I think believe the Pac12 should form a super conference in some form with the ACC and at least some B12 teams. The combined entity should be competitive enough to get at least a couple times into an expanded CFP or at least one team into the current CFP. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tandaian No. 4 Share Posted July 11, 2022 The SEC is only done because the schools they want are in the ACC and don't want to pay 50 mil per to get them out of the TV contract. I'm guessing the ACC members are going to as a whole want out of that terrible TV contract. I can't believe they signed for so long. When Clemson, UNC, Miami and whomever else in the ACC are on the market, SEC will take them. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Marsh No. 5 Share Posted July 11, 2022 I wouldn't want Oregon to join the SEC to be honest. It's the B1G or something else. The SEC also would loath having to play any games in Autzen. They already don't like signing home-and-home games. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
CalBear95 No. 6 Share Posted July 11, 2022 (edited) The problem with the lens of looking at the problem being one of revenue maximization is that outside of perhaps ND, adding anything other team will be dilutive. Therefore, if you take Sankey at his word that 16 is probably the right number going forward (and either it or 18 probably is given the principle of revenue maximization), the only path forward is a combination of culling and substituting bigger markets and/or brands). IOW, these leagues are somewhat forced to focus on the short term For example, the SEC has the USC Gamecocks. Adding Clemson is geographically dilutive. If geographic market is the only measure, adding Clemson makes no sense. If you do you would need to drop USC (obvs the SEC would perhaps take a longer view here but that would mean dilution in the short run). Part of the problem these networks have is truly valuing markets. They don’t have the instrumentation technology to really value brand vs geographic footprint Oregon and UW are tweeners because of their geographic markets. That is effectively saying ‘all else failing in terms of quality, we can rely on these teams drawing eyeballs from their local market.’ But they don’t really know how to truly attribute value for brand. This is why Oregon was tied to a potential bonus for certain crossover games in a hypothetical alliance with the ACC. It is an imperfect nod to the fact Oregon is a valuable brand. As streaming becomes more prevalent, look for this to change. Streaming services know who exactly is watching whom, from where, how long, etc. They can truly measure brand value. This is effectively what happened to the online advertising space. It started as the traditional CPM model or promotional/sponsorship fee model. That changed to CPC and CPP/A because the technology allows advertisers to really target users and tie payments to desired outcomes. That in turn made the advertising market explode in value. Essentially, at least as it relates to CFB, any non regional league (e.g., ACC + PAC combination of some type) should focus on top brands and markets (which will still matter a lot but won’t be the single coin of the realm) All non-FB sports should stay in a regional format for both logistical and rivalry reasons (think UW and Cal for rowing). This is a very long way of saying Oregon is undervalued in the current model. Everyone knows this but because the goal of realignment is short term revenue maximization and the current tools for determining value are somewhat rudimentary, any additions to a league like the SEC or B1G will be dilutive absent chucking some current members overboard. Edited July 11, 2022 by CalBear95 1 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrJacksPlaidPants Author Moderator No. 7 Share Posted July 11, 2022 On 7/11/2022 at 6:41 PM, CalBear95 said: The problem with the lens of looking at the problem being one of revenue maximization is that outside of perhaps ND, adding anything other team will be dilutive. Therefore, if you take Sankey at his word that 16 is probably the right number going forward (and either it or 18 probably is given the principle of revenue maximization), the only path forward is a combination of culling and substituting bigger markets and/or brands). IOW, these leagues are somewhat forced to focus on the short term For example, the SEC has the USC Gamecocks. Adding Clemson is geographically dilutive. If geographic market is the only measure, adding Clemson makes no sense. If you do you would need to drop USC (obvs the SEC would perhaps take a longer view here but that would mean dilution in the short run). Part of the problem these networks have is truly valuing markets. They don’t have the instrumentation technology to really value brand vs geographic footprint Oregon and UW are tweeners because of their geographic markets. That is effectively saying ‘all else failing in terms of quality, we can rely on these teams drawing eyeballs from their local market.’ But they don’t really know how to truly attribute value for brand. This is why Oregon was tied to a potential bonus for certain crossover games in a hypothetical alliance with the ACC. It is an imperfect nod to the fact Oregon is a valuable brand. As streaming becomes more prevalent, look for this to change. Streaming services know who exactly is watching whom, from where, how long, etc. They can truly measure brand value. This is effectively what happened to the online advertising space. It started as the traditional CPM model or promotional/sponsorship fee model. That changed to CPC and CPP/A because the technology allows advertisers to really target users and tie payments to desired outcomes. That in turn made the advertising market explode in value. Essentially, at least as it relates to CFB, any non regional league (e.g., ACC + PAC combination of some type) should focus on top brands and markets (which will still matter a lot but won’t be the single coin of the realm) All non-FB sports should stay in a regional format for both logistical and rivalry reasons (think UW and Cal for rowing). This is a very long way of saying Oregon is undervalued in the current model. Everyone knows this but because the goal of realignment is short term revenue maximization and the current tools for determining value are somewhat rudimentary, any additions to a league like the SEC or B1G will be dilutive absent chucking some current members overboard. That’s what I took from the article. Unless you can bring a substantial amount of revenue with you to the SEC, you are just making everybody’s piece of the pie smaller. Texas and OU made sense because the SEC now has the lion’s share of the Texas CFB TV market. They also get OKC but OU has more of a fan base in DFW than they do in their own state. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nevada Dawg No. 8 Share Posted July 12, 2022 On 7/11/2022 at 3:00 PM, David Marsh said: I wouldn't want Oregon to join the SEC to be honest. It's the B1G or something else. The SEC also would loath having to play any games in Autzen. They already don't like signing home-and-home games. Kirby Smart has already said that he'd love to play a game in Autzen. And although some of these series may not be played given conference realignments, Smart had scheduled a half dozen or more home and homes with college football bluebloods over the next 8-10 years. Georgia fans want these games and have demanded them. Now Alabama...that is a different story unless home and homes that I don't know about have recently been scheduled be the Tide Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDuck No. 9 Share Posted July 12, 2022 On 7/11/2022 at 10:33 PM, Nevada Dawg said: Kirby Smart has already said that he'd love to play a game in Autzen. And although some of these series may not be played given conference realignments, Smart had scheduled a half dozen or more home and homes with college football bluebloods over the next 8-10 years. Georgia fans want these games and have demanded them. Now Alabama...that is a different story unless home and homes that I don't know about have recently been scheduled be the Tide Gotta give credit to Georgia for their OOC scheduling. Clemson and Ohio State in the same year? Georgia football schedule: UGA’s future nonconference games are insane UGAWIRE.USATODAY.COM Looking at Georgia’s future nonconference schedules through 2034. 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Marsh No. 10 Share Posted July 12, 2022 On 7/11/2022 at 10:33 PM, Nevada Dawg said: Kirby Smart has already said that he'd love to play a game in Autzen. And although some of these series may not be played given conference realignments, Smart had scheduled a half dozen or more home and homes with college football bluebloods over the next 8-10 years. Georgia fans want these games and have demanded them. It was before Smart was the head coach and before Georgia really changed their scheduling policy with a new athletic director but Georgia did back out of playing Oregon previously, which is why Oregon got to schedule Bowling Green or some other uneventful opponent. Texas A&M also backed out of a home and home agreement using the conference realignment clause in the contract as they joined the SEC and decided they really didn't want to play Oregon anymore. I'm not taking a shot at anyone currently at Georgia or it's fanbase, who have no influence on the schedule, I'm just making a point that on the whole the SEC doesn't like to travel outside of their footprint. Atlanta Georgia is hardly a neutral site of a "neutral site game" but I'm happy Oregon will have a chance to play Georgia in a big time non-conference game. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nevada Dawg No. 11 Share Posted July 12, 2022 Hey David, all is good here. My post was not intended as a shot at you but only as a piece of information. I do agree with you that the Benz in Atlanta is hardly a neutral site. I don't set gambling spreads but I would bet that the site more favorable to the Dawgs is worth about 6 points of of the 17-point spread set for that game. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duck 1972 No. 12 Share Posted July 13, 2022 I believe the most important factor in the SEC picking up OU and UTx along with B1G pick up's, is getting into the lucrative recruiting footprint as much as any revenue they bring. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
