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Is San Diego State an Answer?

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A merger with the Big 12 is off the table, per ESPN report.

 

I don't know if I agree but I think it pretty well thought out.

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The idea is they don't mesh or raise the needle in income, in fact they would lower it, from what I've read. Even with being in SoCal they and so far any of the others that have been mentioned like BSU, FSt., etc don't bring enough to the media table. Which means less money to split 12 ways vrs the same money 10.

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And...LA and SD are big markets but college football isn't the only game in town or even the big game in town like it is anywhere in SEC country or a lot of other places.  Think about USuC and sUCkLA with 7200 in the stands in the Coliseum or Rose Bowl in recent years for home games and the embarrassment that brought the Pac.  Unless they are winning that won't change.

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P12 stuck between a rock and hard place.  I can't imagine the conference surviving long-term with only 10 members.  B12 merger out for now, ACC partnership is very complicated at best.

 

So where do expansion candidates come from?  The B12 is in the same boat although they have more of a cushion with 14 members and have no qualms about academic "prowess", so that gives them the advantage.

 

Either way I just don't see both conferences surviving and if they can poach a couple of P12 schools then our conference is dead.  In that scenario, I'd rather have SDSU and FSU and still be a conference.  GK knows this.  If he can't figure out how to get the P12 to 12-16 members, we're toast.

 

Edited by noDucknewby
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I certainly lack any knowledge about figuring the market value of each individual school based upon  households and tv sets...... so please enlighten me on what i am missing

 

My question is are the people who turn on tv sets to watch sports in San Diego or the San Joquim Valley less important than those in LA? Do they not spend money on the same products advertised endlessly during a 4 hour game?

 

Fresno State and San Diego State bring millions of households and tv sets to help replace those lost. Are those viewers less valuable to ESPN? If fox was showing Wisconsin/uclasuc at 5 pst wouldnt espn want a Utah/SDSU or Oregon/Fresno State game to fight for the west coast viewers?

 

Why do those viewers bring less value?

 

I understand that each remaining PAC 10 member will take less if new members dont bring value. But the NW schools cant expect every youngster to come north for all visits. PAC members need a prescence south of the Bay area for young talent to attend some games.

 

When Utah and Colorado came into the league they wanted to be in the South so they could have one game a year in SoCal. It was true then and its true now........

 

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According to the article San Diego has 20% of the TV sets as LA.

 

Without the Los Angeles schools, the Pac-12 is down 5.7 million homes in its footprint.

 

San. Diego has 1.1 million TV homes ...

 

 

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How many more football fans in SoCal would tune in to watch SD St play a P12 school on regular basis? I'm guessing viewership would increase. 

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Posted (edited)
On 7/19/2022 at 7:05 PM, HappyToBeADuck said:

Fresno State and San Diego State bring millions of households and tv sets to help replace those lost. Are those viewers less valuable to ESPN? If fox was showing Wisconsin/uclasuc at 5 pst wouldnt espn want a Utah/SDSU or Oregon/Fresno State game to fight for the west coast viewers?

PAC total DMA (media market) without the two schools in the LA market (5.7 million TV Homes) is 10,726,140 TV Homes

 

DMA rankings for the following:

If we added SDSU - San Diego:  ranks #28 with 1.065,700 TV Homes

If we added FSU - Fresno-Visalia:  ranks #54 with 573,180 TV Homes

If we added UNLV - Las Vegas:  ranks #40 with 757,840 TV Homes (They are a Tier 1 Research university)

 

A SDSU/UNLV combo gives you an extra 1,823,540 TV Homes

12 school total = 12,549,680 TV Homes

 

Any combination of two other schools joining the PAC out of those 3 universities, the PAC would most likely lose value per university, not gain.  But SDSU does give you a footprint in the Southern Cal area for recruiting and, like you mentioned, having them on board gives young talent a chance to attend some games south of the Bay Area.

Edited by NJDuck
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McDuck and NJDuck have it right. Remember ratings are not based on actual viewers watching but 'potential' viewers. That's why the LA LA land market is so important. 

 

I know it doesn't make sense but what in our world makes sense. Reality is reality tho.

 

I will say that from what I've read and heard the PAC hasn't said no completely to adding and expanding in the future, just not this year.

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Thanks for all the input. Love this forum and all who volunteer and contribute.

 

It is a blessing for the remaining PAC that the 250 million people east of the Rockies need something to watch on Saturday night. espn needs low cost filler games for sure.

 

If we partner with the ACC thru ESPN how many east coasters will be awake to watch the Beavers play the Tarheels or WF play Arizona with a 10:30 est kickoff?

 

???????

 

Anyway if it brings added revenue for the PAC schools and keeps us relevant to the CFP then its certainly an avenue to pursue.

 

Nothing against the Beavers vs Tarheels. I will watch any ACC/PAC matchup over usuc or uclasuc vs any BIG. 

 

GO DUCKS......

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On 7/19/2022 at 5:21 PM, NJDuck said:

PAC total DMA (media market) without the two schools in the LA market (5.7 million TV Homes) is 10,726,140 TV Homes

 

DMA rankings for the following:

If we added SDSU - San Diego:  ranks #28 with 1.065,700 TV Homes

If we added FSU - Fresno-Visalia:  ranks #54 with 573,180 TV Homes

If we added UNLV - Las Vegas:  ranks #40 with 757,840 TV Homes (They are a Tier 1 Research university)

 

A SDSU/UNLV combo gives you an extra 1,823,540 TV Homes

12 school total = 12,549,680 TV Homes

 

Any combination of two other schools joining the PAC out of those 3 universities, the PAC would most likely lose value per university, not gain.  But SDSU does give you a footprint in the Southern Cal area for recruiting and, like you mentioned, having them on board gives young talent a chance to attend some games south of the Bay Area.

I have supported this idea of SoCal recruiting footprint but hadn't thought about playing games there as a positive. That might be worth a little less money but I doubt the Universities see it that way as they are already behind the eight ball.

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Another thing to remember about UNLV and San Diego St. and maybe Fresno St., if you bring them up to Power 5, their viewership would likely increase.  Even when Alabama plays sisters of the peace, their TV viewership goes down.  When you play against good teams, your fan base wants to watch more. 

 

They can't replace the LA TV market, but they would likely have a bigger TV audience than OSU and Arizona in 4 years after they had a full rotation of recruiting at the Power 5 level.

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     Unavoidably, the ignored elephant in the room is what would be the affect on the perception of future elite-level southland recruits (and other regions) without the media-driven appearance of being part of an elite-level conference. National exposure gives a big edge to coaches in the living room of these kids. 

 

     We either accept this recruiting effect on being ‘down-sized’ as result of keeping the PAC intact, or we accept leaving behind our region in pursuit of some national super group that would give us that edge. I’m afraid we can’t have it both ways.

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It might dilute the TV money, but getting back to 12 would be a wise decision for the Pac 12.  San Diego St. and UNLV make the most sense.  San Diego St. has been good in football and men's hoops recently.  If they get real money, they can likely stay there.  UNLV has been good in the past in men's hoops and with money hopefully they can be in football.

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On 7/20/2022 at 11:57 AM, Washington Waddler said:

Unavoidably, the ignored elephant in the room is what would be the affect on the perception of future elite-level southland recruits (and other regions) without the media-driven appearance of being part of an elite-level conference. National exposure gives a big edge to coaches in the living room of these kids

This has been a huge concern of mine from the get-go. 

 

When DL & Co. visit recruits they were able to play the PAC card.  We all know it really hasn’t been the strongest card in the deck, but it could be played with enough UO peripherals to sell it. 

 

Fast forward a couple years and what is there to sell?  It’s potentially a very scary time as I’m concerned we’re being relegated to the kids table. 

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Posted (edited)
On 7/20/2022 at 9:21 AM, Jester said:

Fast forward a couple years and what is there to sell?  It’s potentially a very scary time as I’m concerned we’re being relegated to the kids table. 

     Possibly, there is a 3rd choice: the Gonzaga route. Like Duck FB, Bulldog BB earned its national spurs the hard way. However, unlike the Ducks, they’ve always been member to a lower tier conference.

 

     There solution, in order to remain nationally visible, was not to come begging to a bigger conference, but to load the pre-season with highly ranked opponents. 

 

     Obviously, BB has a big advantage over FB in that regard. But the Ducks - as the price for remaining in the PAC - might consider rewriting their ticket as to how many conference games they would play as opposed to the number of preseason games they’d schedule as a compromise for remaining in the PAC.

 

     There would probably be a stiff scheduling price to pay in that elite opponents would see this as an opportunity to schedule a home and done, although media $$ for a home & away might alter that perception. 

 

     Anyway, it’s a thought.

     

Edited by Washington Waddler
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MWWIRE.COM

Saving the PAC-12: One Interesting Possibility Can the PAC-12 rebuild itself without lowering standards...

This article has some interesting choices, though I’m not too keen on the last one. 

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This I VERY much like...

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On 7/20/2022 at 11:40 AM, Coach Eric Boles said:
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MWWIRE.COM

Saving the PAC-12: One Interesting Possibility Can the PAC-12 rebuild itself without lowering standards...

This article has some interesting choices, though I’m not too keen on the last one. 

As a Ute fan I am atypical and actually like BYU.  I would love for them to be a conference game for Utah again.  Their fans travel well and there are usually a few of their fans in every town that will help fill the local stadium when they come to town.   

 

Gonzaga sounds good for basketball but I can't get into the Hawaii idea.

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There has always been a minimum academic standard which us why we have not seen schools such as UNLV.

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Why would BYU jump on the Pac 12 ship, when it already has hitched their wagon to the Big 12?

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On 7/19/2022 at 7:14 PM, HappyToBeADuck said:

.....

 

If we partner with the ACC thru ESPN how many east coasters will be awake to watch the Beavers play the Tarheels or WF play Arizona with a 10:30 est kickoff?

 

....

We can hope that with any games against teams on the East Coast (or Midwest) that ESPN would schedule them for times that better suit those areas--and we'd have fewer night games because of that!

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It might be time to lower our noses a bit and look at these ideas. None of them have the prestige of a USC, but why is UCLA such a catch? Oh yeah, TV screens. Other than that UCLA hasn't been nationally relevant in anything for a long time.

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If UCLA is forced to stay in the pack then adding SDSU would make sense. Pick up a couple schools from Texas, maybe BYU would be a start.

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Seems like San Diego State would benefit greatly from joining the P12. They would be able to recruit athletes to play against better competition and you get to live in San Diego. That in itself is a pretty compelling pitch. Once the quality of the the product goes up due to better talent higher TV ratings will follow. We after all are generally a country of fair weather fans. I like this better than making our players fly all over the country to play in cold weather for what is still only a college football game when you get down to it.

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I keep hearing how USC and UCLA will struggle to compete in the Big10.  While I fully agree with that (especially for UCLA), it's pretty obvious at this point that the people who are making those decisions do not have that at the top of priority list.  It's all about the money.  If UCLA can get $80 million annually, they'll be happy to be 5 - 7 after barely squeaking by Maryland.  They'll take that over being 9 - 3 in the Pac-12 at $30 million annually without the slightest hesitation.  

 

Maybe they'll delude themselves that with a new coach they can successfully compete (and go through that cycle every few years), or maybe they'll just enjoy the income and let losing take its course - the Vanderbilt model.

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Hasnt SDSU pretty much owned the PAC recently? I would say they are worthy. Plus they keep us in So Cal TV land.

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On 7/20/2022 at 9:21 AM, Jester said:

This has been a huge concern of mine from the get-go. 

 

When DL & Co. visit recruits they were able to play the PAC card.  We all know it really hasn’t been the strongest card in the deck, but it could be played with enough UO peripherals to sell it. 

 

Fast forward a couple years and what is there to sell?  It’s potentially a very scary time as I’m concerned we’re being relegated to the kids table. 

“Relegated to the kids’ table.”

 

That’s exactly where it feels like the PAC-12 is headed.

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What if California decides that UCLA would need to compensate Cal for the loss in revenue that leaving the Pac would cause? What if that compensation comes out to costing UCLA more to leave that to stay. If UCLA then decides to stay because of that, would the BIG take Stanford instead? If that were to happen, would losing USC and Stanford but bringing in SD St and UNLV actually increase the TV footprint of the Pac?

 

With a stable Pac, could they then reach out to the Big 12 and pull in a few teams? Adding four teams (Ok St, TTU, Baylor or Houston, Cincinnati (Ohio TV Market) they would be a solid third place conference. That would be a huge step up from being a distant fifth and fast approaching sixth place as the Mountain West could claim to be superior at this point.

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