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Ducks Talk: Future Still Uncertain for Pac-12, Oregon

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What happens next?

 

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FISHDUCK.COM

If you're head is still spinning over the uncertainty swirling around the realignment of the Pac-12 Conference, join the club. And there...

 

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As far as UCLA goes, I think they will give some of the new revenue earnings to the UC system and I think larger strategic donations will be promised and made to political campaigns from UCLA alum in the near future. 

 

I've mentioned previously that I think Oregon intends to be patient and give time to ND to make their decision and subsequently wait for an invite to the B1G.  Combining with the Big-12 to me is a last option...including after going independent.  That conference is basically turning into a leftovers conference and Oregon is not a leftover.  

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IMHO, I think Oregon should stay with the PAC. All the reasons that were stated about USC & UCLA regretting their decision to join the BIG 10 would apply to the Ducks.

 

Long travel, winter weather, and loss of school time for the student athletes are my concerns. The other sports would be affected more.  Additionally, the same would apply for fans.  

 

I'm a traditionalist.  I grew up with the PAC-8.  Adjusted with the PAC-10 and then PAC-12. I support adding San Diego State and Fresno State.

 

Oregon will continue to be a top tier program.  I don't know what will come.  I'm just going to enjoy the upcoming season, and appreciate Our Beloved Ducks!

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Good article Jordan, and there are a few nuggets in there that we have not seen among so much that has been reported.  Thanks!

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Mr. FishDuck

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I understand that Oregon has to join the BIG if the opportunity comes, but I have no desire for Oregon to be in that conference.  It is a terrible match. 

 

I hope we find a way to keep the PAC together.     

Edited by GeotechDuck
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But sure feels the PAC has leverage over the Big12.

Yes a full ~24 team merger was declined, and Big12 reported that first.  But perhaps to try and show strength it does not have.  They may not want the full Pac (sorry Beavs), but the rest besides Arizona basically outdraws the current Big12 in average TV viewership since 2015.

PAC can choose to wait and/or be selective on just top when Big12 realizes it is further behind.

 

Sourced from 

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THEATHLETIC.COM

Television numbers indicate the Pac-12 isn't necessarily in a weaker position than the Big 12.

 

 

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If UCLA is forced to kick up some of its media money to Cal and the PAC stays together for now then the Bears stand to become the highest revenue earner in the conference.  
 

I mean, only the Bears.  They look all cute with the eternal Sophomore Oski but in truth they are lurking in the shadows and will maul you a la The Revenant.

 

Evil genius, baby.  Evil genius. 
 

Go Bears!

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Get TCU and Oklahoma State to join Pac-12. From the TV numbers above we would have the market cornered. 

 

Add in SD St and UNLV for 14 team conference. We'd be in the TX - Dallas and still in the LA market and footprint. Have 2 seven team divisions, Pacific/Mountain. Championship game. 

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On 7/25/2022 at 4:07 PM, Duck 1972 said:

Get TCU and Oklahoma State to join Pac-12. From the TV numbers above we would have the market cornered. 

 

Add in SD St and UNLV for 14 team conference. We'd be in the TX - Dallas and still in the LA market and footprint. Have 2 seven team divisions, Pacific/Mountain. Championship game.

If you are going to go there, I would go a step further and pull in Houston and BYU.  Make it 16 team conference.  Houston media market is ranked 8 with 2,450,800 TV Homes (unless Houston is too far.  239 miles between Dallas and Houston).  BYU has a strong nationwide following and ranked 21st in academics amongst all the colleges nationwide.  They also are strong in athletics.

Edited by NJDuck
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TBH there may be more Oklahoma State fans in the DFW metroplex than TCU fans.  OK State's enrollment hovers around 25K whereas TCU's hovers around 12K and I believe we have more alumni in DWF than we do in Oklahoma City or Tulsa.

 

I agree that pulling in Houston wouldn't be a bad idea (they do have a hx of being in a top league) and BYU is similar to ND in that they just have a very consistent national following.

 

If I'm honest the XII hasn't felt like the XII since Mizzou, Nebraska, Texas A&M, and Colorado left.  I would that the PAC would not really feel like the PAC minus the LA schools but plus SDSU and UNLV.  So to me, I don't really care what merges with who or even if we just scrap the whole thing and start afresh (The Continental Conference, The United Athletic Conference, etc).  I just want a league that can at least bring in enough TV dollars to allow all it's programs to compete and stay relevant through all this mess.

 

I will say that looking at one year of TV numbers can be a little misleading.  It all depends on how many games a certain team ends up with on one of the major networks vs. FS1/ESPN2 etc.  I think I posted a link on this forum (somewhere ha) to an article where someone compiled all the TV viewership numbers over a 5 year period from 2015-2019 and things looked different than the numbers from last year.  Not completely and totally different, but different.   

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On 7/26/2022 at 3:08 PM, OST8 said:

TBH there may be more Oklahoma State fans in the DFW metroplex than TCU fans.  OK State's enrollment hovers around 25K whereas TCU's hovers around 12K and I believe we have more alumni in DWF than we do in Oklahoma City or Tulsa.

 

I agree that pulling in Houston wouldn't be a bad idea (they do have a hx of being in a top league) and BYU is similar to ND in that they just have a very consistent national following.

 

If I'm honest the XII hasn't felt like the XII since Mizzou, Nebraska, Texas A&M, and Colorado left.  I would that the PAC would not really feel like the PAC minus the LA schools but plus SDSU and UNLV.  So to me, I don't really care what merges with who or even if we just scrap the whole thing and start afresh (The Continental Conference, The United Athletic Conference, etc).  I just want a league that can at least bring in enough TV dollars to allow all it's programs to compete and stay relevant through all this mess.

 

I will say that looking at one year of TV numbers can be a little misleading.  It all depends on how many games a certain team ends up with on one of the major networks vs. FS1/ESPN2 etc.  I think I posted a link on this forum (somewhere ha) to an article where someone compiled all the TV viewership numbers over a 5 year period from 2015-2019 and things looked different than the numbers from last year.  Not completely and totally different, but different.   

The challenge with any of these fan based media share results is that they often lack the methodology that backs out both double dipping as well as numbers driven by TX and OU (and SC and UCLA)


That is why content from The Athletic is more trustworthy than something some fan posts on the internets to show why some reporter just doesn’t get it.  
 

That may not apply to what you referenced but the moral remains the same: trust non-expert driven data cautiously 

 

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On 7/26/2022 at 6:10 PM, CalBear95 said:

The challenge with any of these fan based media share results is that they often lack the methodology that backs out both double dipping as well as numbers driven by TX and OU (and SC and UCLA)


That is why content from The Athletic is more trustworthy than something some fan posts on the internets to show why some reporter just doesn’t get it.  
 

That may not apply to what you referenced but the moral remains the same: trust non-expert driven data cautiously 

 

 

Oh I totally agree with you in terms of the prattle that can be found at times (or many times) on twitter and the like.  And if I'm honest, I would not peg Mandel nor the author of the article linked below as "experts" necessarily when it comes to media viewership statistics.  However they are both a part of the associated press and thus have access to some data and the time to crunch those numbers.

 

The reason I put more stock in this articles figures is that it is a larger sample size...5 times the sample size of Mandel's article.  So, for instance, the Ducks game with Ohio State last season has a MUCH greater impact on the final average than say TCU's game with Ohio State in 2018 because that outlier is watered down with 50 or more other "normal" games.  Is even the 5 year look a perfect account of the viewership and worth of any one program?  No.  But I think it has more value than looking at a single season.

 

5 Year Viewership Average

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