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Bo Nix’s Leash: How Long?

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Former five-star QB recruit Bo Nix has never lived up the expectations thrust on him; is this the year he puts that to rest? Can Nix perform at a higher level this year? And if he struggles, how much slack does he get? Could we ultimately see the Oregon staff turn to one of the young quarterbacks, Ty Thompson or ...

 

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Former five-star QB recruit Bo Nix has never lived up the expectations thrust on him; is this the year he puts that to rest? Can Nix perform at a...

 

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I Think a two game leash. He should have a good game against Georgia, No more than two givaways. int or fumbles. and  be around 60-65 percent completion.Win or loss not a deciding factor in that game,  Just a solid game, In the next game. he needs to blow away Eastern Washington, by the first half so our young qbs can play. In fact in game 2  our  Butterfield or Thompson should be playing in the second half  no matter what.

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Thanks for another thought-provoking article previewing Ducks QB's.

 

I look for improved metrics by the quarterbacks over Herbert's senior season numbers. He was limited by the scheme, play calling, and receivers with this year's team capable of improving in all those aspects.

 

Could we see YPC near 10..0, completion rate of 67+, and QB Rating of 160+?

 

Dilly continues to stress that ball security by avoiding interceptions and fumbles is paramount in the QB competition.

 

This is the time of year when the effects of over-consumption of green kool-Aid begins to blur my vision.

 

Go Ducks.

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The leash of Bo depends on the ability of the underclassmen. I am not convinced Bo is day 1 starter. It's probable but I wouldn't be surprised if JB or TT win the job.

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On 8/15/2022 at 5:55 AM, Log Haulin said:

The leash of Bo depends on the ability of the underclassmen. I am not convinced Bo is day 1 starter. It's probable but I wouldn't be surprised if JB or TT win the job.

How many passing attempts against real competition have JB or TT had?  You want them to go up against one of the best defensive lines in the nation?  Not to mention 5-star defensive backs that all want to make a statement!   I still remember the two UTAH games.  This Georgia team is better than them.  Bo will start period.  Lanning knows exactly what the Ducks are going to see September 3rd in front of 100,000 Georgia fans.   No way he puts a QB in there with ZERO experience.  He doesn't want to lose by 40 either.

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On 8/15/2022 at 5:43 AM, Notalot said:

I look for improved metrics by the quarterbacks over Herbert's senior season numbers. He was limited by the scheme, play calling, and receivers with this year's team capable of improving in all those aspects.

 

Could we see YPC near 10..0, completion rate of 67+, and QB Rating of 160+?

This is a fantastic post!! It's really what I think we as fans should expect of good QB play in Dillys system.

 

Bo as a 4th year player in a better scheme with better players should be able to eclipse Herbs senior numbers. 

 

Herbs sophomore numbers in Taggarts Gulf Coast were YPC of 9.6, completion rate of 67.5% and pass rating of 167.5. 

 

If we get that type of QB play in Dillys scheme, we will be well over 40 points a game. 

 

Again, great post!

Edited by DazeNconfused
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 Thanks for the article. 

 

 At the spring game I thought Butters was the clear number 2. Nix did have a couple long throws that were impressive but Butters looked poised and ready to go.

 

 I hope we can hang on to all 3 to start the season but that may not be the case.

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What we don't know is how well our young guns have developed under Dilly, and I would think Lanning's tutelage. Nix has had his day(s) to show development and is serviceable, but the young guys now have a chance to really show who they can become.

 

One item, which Dilly has addressed, is Nix was the only one who looked like he commanded the field in the spring game. If the young guys have learned how to lead the team from before they step on the field until the last whistle then maybe they are ready.

 

With Nix propensity to make mistakes can one of the young guys prove a more reliable decision maker? I tend to think Butterfield may already be a better decision maker. With Ty, supposedly the proverbial light bulbs have supposedly been more than flickering, and who knows may be showing him the way by now.

 

With Dilly in their ears, and Lanning providing important guidance as well, we are going to learn if one or more of these qbs has what it takes. I personally wouldn't as shocked as I would be excited to see one of the young ones start from day one. 

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On 8/15/2022 at 7:17 AM, Haywarduck said:

What we don't know is how well our young guns have developed under Dilly, and I would think Lanning's tutelage. Nix has had his day(s) to show development and is serviceable, but the young guys now have a chance to really show who they can become.

 

One item, which Dilly has addressed, is Nix was the only one who looked like he commanded the field in the spring game. If the young guys have learned how to lead the team from before they step on the field until the last whistle then maybe they are ready.

 

With Nix propensity to make mistakes can one of the young guys prove a more reliable decision maker? I tend to think Butterfield may already be a better decision maker. With Ty, supposedly the proverbial light bulbs have supposedly been more than flickering, and who knows may be showing him the way by now.

 

With Dilly in their ears, and Lanning providing important guidance as well, we are going to learn if one or more of these qbs has what it takes. I personally wouldn't as shocked as I would be excited to see one of the young ones start from day one. 

This is an awesome post as well, great points made that give good persective.

 

I also had Butters #2 after the spring game. 

 

But I wouldn't be surprised if Ty really comes on this fall. Year one into two is where the biggest jump is usually made. 

 

Ideally, I'd like for it to all click for Ty and him to come out of camp as the #1 and for him to blow up this year.

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While I want to see Nix succeed (giving Thompson & Butterfield more time to develop and the Ducks to have a great season) I don't see Lanning being 3-game patient depending on how those 1st 3 games go.  The first game, yeah, that will be a huge indicator of how ready Nix is - against Georgia.  I don't expect him to have a great game. But if he doesn't perform at a very high level against EWU, then what's the point of continuing him as the starter?  The Ducks cannot afford to start the 2022 season 1-2 before beginning the Pac-12 season.  Imo.  

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On 8/15/2022 at 7:26 AM, Mic said:

The Ducks cannot afford to start the 2022 season 1-2 before beginning the Pac-12 season.  Imo.  

If Nix gets the first three games and we are 1-2 then he should be done. If we go 1-2 and Nix keeps his job then I'll start to worry about Ty and Butters not being very good.

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2-1 and I think Nix gets to WSU as the starter, (depending on how well those games went).  I'd be more concerned that Thompson may transfer if Lanning gives Nix a longer leash  (1-2).  Butterfield less so but that's also a concern because I can see the Ducks going to a 2-QB scheme, certainly not a 3-QB scenario.  In this new age of transfers a coach is walking a tight rope made of glass.

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 If Bo can get back to who he was as a freshman he will be good enough to go undefeated in the pack.

 

 He lost 3 games that year to Florida, LSU, And Georgia, all three were top 10 teams. Two of those games were one score games. LSU were champions that year and had one of the  best college QBs in modern times as Auburn came closest to beating LSU that year, 3 points. He did loose to 18th ranked Minn. in a meaningless bowl game and now days I give little weight to bowl games unless they are the big ones.

 

 His next 2 years Auburn turned into a hot mess. Coaching staff had some turn around which we all know can be hard for a team to fight thru no matter who is QB. If you watch film Bo spent much of his time running for his life because of poor offensive line play which is hard to throw accurate balls from and shouldn’t be the problem at Oregon. 

 

 I have confidence that Bo will do well at Georgia and he gives us our best and only chance to win an extremely difficult game. He’s been there before against better teams so I expect him to play well. He has an advantage with a head coach that knows Georgia’s defense as well as anyone and an OC that will be throwing new rankles that the Dogs have not witnessed.

 

 The Ducks have enough talent to make Bo’s job a little easier than when he was at Auburn. 

 

 As far as a leash who knows. 

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I think we are missing the whole point of the competition. If Ty or Butters is ready then giving Nix 1-3 games isn't necessary. If neither are ready then pulling him after 3 games doesn't work either.

 

What is comes down to is who is ready, one of them, or all of them? If they are all ready then we have a wonderful competition and we can wait to see who really has 'it' on the field, in a game. 

 

That is the competition we really want to see, and many think Bo doesn't have 'it,' as he has had plenty of opportunity to show what he has. 

 

I think the competition comes down to showing you can do everything needed as qb. Then the magic happens as we see the next Justin, Marcus, or Joey lead the team like we are use to. The question I have is which young gun has the magical 'it' factor to lead our offense back! I don't want to just have a game manager, time to go back to a game leader, and an elite qb.

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Here is my bold prediction for the year.  Nix is going to explode and have a huge senior season, making the amount of "leash" a non-issue.  This offense is perfect for him and he is going to have protection to throw the ball.  Last year he cleaned up the mistakes, as he only threw 3 picks in 9 games.

 

Just a small note to consider - After Nix went down to injury, Auburn didn't win another game last year. 

 

 

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Another excellent discussion starter, Confucius. I'm with you on the 3-game "leash." Frankly, I can't visualize a scenario where the Ducks' defense isn't stellar at the start of the season with good health and excellent depth.

 

So, if the team goes 1-2, I think it will mean that the offense has sputtered. I think the coaching staff will be ready, in that case. to change the trigger man at QB. As others have already mentioned, if they DON'T make a change in QB then, it will be an ominous sign about the perceived readiness of the two underclassmen.

 

Personally, I'm optimistic the record will be no worse than 2-1. And, if a change in QB happens, it will be because of the positive development of Thompson or Butterfield.

 

Fun to speculate at this point in lieu of actual game action.

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On 8/15/2022 at 10:51 AM, Mic said:

2-1 and I think Nix gets to WSU as the starter, (depending on how well those games went).  I'd be more concerned that Thompson may transfer if Lanning gives Nix a longer leash  (1-2).  Butterfield less so but that's also a concern because I can see the Ducks going to a 2-QB scheme, certainly not a 3-QB scenario.  In this new age of transfers a coach is walking a tight rope made of glass.

We can assume that enemies will be poisoning and attempting to lure QB's two and three away from Oregon.There are loose rules and little enforcement for tampering.

 

Nix, Thompson, and Butterfield seem to be serious level-headed business-like players. That bodes well for the Ducks.

 

The bait to pull transfers into trznsferring is stronger than ever. The large support teams at the elite schools and some wannabees have can identify and attract transfer portal targets.

 

Stay tuned. Go Ducks.

Edited by Notalot
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Thanks Dazencofused for another great article!  I agree with your assessment.  Bo Nix's 2021 year at Auburn was his best stats. 61% completion, 7.1 per pass avg., rating of 130.  He for sure needs to step it up.  What is scary is his single game numbers against against UGA in 2021:  55% completion, 5.7 per passing avg., rating of 98.  Against TAM game in 2021: 48.8% completion, 3.7 per passing avg., rating of 75.2.  Yikes!

 

These are some of the reasons, I'm sure, you wrote the article on "Regarding Bo Nix: Beware Bandwagon Buy-In."  His production numbers were not stellar.

 

Hopefully with this coaching staff and a better supporting cast around him, I am optimistic of what you mentioned in this article that he could achieve.  I also agree Bo being on a short leash.

 

I am excited at what this defense will be able to do this year!  That will be a difference maker for the offense as well giving them opportunistic in game situations to score.  Looking forward in seeing our special team unit this year and what they can produce.

 

I am betting on this coaching staff giving our young QBs every opportunity to play if Bo is successful, or be the starter if he fails.

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On 8/15/2022 at 8:21 AM, Haywarduck said:

I think we are missing the whole point of the competition. If Ty or Butters is ready then giving Nix 1-3 games isn't necessary. If neither are ready then pulling him after 3 games doesn't work either.

 

Just as Prof. Henry Higgins said, 'I think (s)he's got it!'

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This commentator's analysis goes well with the topic discussed.

 

bo.jpg
247SPORTS.COM

Barrett Sallee joins Brandon Baylor to discuss the second act of Bo Nix being at Oregon.

 

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On 8/15/2022 at 8:21 AM, Just Ducky said:

 If Bo can get back to who he was as a freshman he will be good enough to go undefeated in the pack.

 

 He lost 3 games that year to Florida, LSU, And Georgia, all three were top 10 teams. Two of those games were one score games. LSU were champions that year and had one of the  best college QBs in modern times as Auburn came closest to beating LSU that year, 3 points. He did loose to 18th ranked Minn. in a meaningless bowl game and now days I give little weight to bowl games unless they are the big ones.

Bo's freshman year wasn't his best year, look up his career stats. 

 

Bo's freshman pass completion was 57.6%, yards per pass 6.7 with a 125-passer rating-- compared to Jeff Lockie 2015 at 61% completion for 5.9 yards and 119.5. I don't care if that is Pac-12, SEC or powder-puff.. those stats aren't good!

 

Contrary to the narrative Bo's O Line was bad they ran for over 200 yards against Oregon in 2019. They had offensive tackles go in the 4th and 6th round.

 

They ranked #38 in total defense led by two NFL picks Marlon Davidson 2nd round and Derrick Brown the #7 pick in the 1st round. on the D Line. Noah Igbinoghene the DB went late in the first round and DB Danile Thomas went in the 5th round.

 

The fact is Auburn's defense and the O Line- running game carried the team Bo's freshman year and that defense did the best job against Burrow than any team all year. 

 

I'm highly skeptical that Lockie... errrrr, um, Nix is going to come in here and light it up. 

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On 8/15/2022 at 10:48 AM, Pennsylvania Duck said:

This commentator's analysis goes well with the topic discussed.

 

bo.jpg
247SPORTS.COM

Barrett Sallee joins Brandon Baylor to discuss the second act of Bo Nix being at Oregon.

 

Good post, this guy needs to see it to believe it.

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On 8/15/2022 at 8:21 AM, Haywarduck said:

I think we are missing the whole point of the competition. If Ty or Butters is ready then giving Nix 1-3 games isn't necessary. If neither are ready then pulling him after 3 games doesn't work either.

 

What is comes down to is who is ready, one of them, or all of them? If they are all ready then we have a wonderful competition and we can wait to see who really has 'it' on the field, in a game. 

 

That is the competition we really want to see, and many think Bo doesn't have 'it,' as he has had plenty of opportunity to show what he has. 

 

I think the competition comes down to showing you can do everything needed as qb. Then the magic happens as we see the next Justin, Marcus, or Joey lead the team like we are use to. The question I have is which young gun has the magical 'it' factor to lead our offense back! I don't want to just have a game manager, time to go back to a game leader, and an elite qb.

This is what I think is the most important part. We Duck fans know what bad QB looks like and Bo has been bad for 3 years and 34 starts.

 

Unless Bo makes a big jump there is no sense staying with him if his play is below average. If that's the case, then let's see if one of the young guys can be a good QB.

 

I'd rather watch Ty take his lumps than watch Bo not be good again.

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On 8/15/2022 at 10:48 AM, DazeNconfused said:

Bo's freshman year wasn't his best year, look up his career stats. 

 

Bo's freshman pass completion was 57.6%, yards per pass 6.7 with a 125-passer rating-- compared to Jeff Lockie 2015 at 61% completion for 5.9 yards and 119.5. I don't care if that is Pac-12, SEC or powder-puff.. those stats aren't good!

 

Contrary to the narrative Bo's O Line was bad they ran for over 200 yards against Oregon in 2019. They had offensive tackles go in the 4th and 6th round.

 

They ranked #38 in total defense led by two NFL picks Marlon Davidson 2nd round and Derrick Brown the #7 pick in the 1st round. on the D Line. Noah Igbinoghene the DB went late in the first round and DB Danile Thomas went in the 5th round.

 

The fact is Auburn's defense and the O Line- running game carried the team Bo's freshman year and that defense did the best job against Burrow than any team all year. 

 

I'm highly skeptical that Lockie... errrrr, um, Nix is going to come in here and light it up. 

 We can throw stats all day the fact remains Bo was sacked 17 times as a freshman, was their leading rusher in two games. Their number one rusher gained 4.9 yds per carry. If that’s great O line play then I’m missing something. 

 

 The point is was making is he is our best option for the start of the season. Unless some miracle happens and Butters flashes brilliance in the next couple weeks.

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In the end of the day, the length of the leash is entirely up to the coaches.  It may be fun, but pointless for us to speculate and stress over this again.   Remember last year?   I bet most of us were frustrated as heck to see AB in all the games the whole time, especially the bowl game.    But what do we know?

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I completely agree with your analysis on this.  We are going to learn a lot from the Georgia game about how all of the starters will fare this season and especially Bo.  

 

That being said Georgia is an uphill slog for sure and while Oregon is absolutely capable of winning in Atlanta the pure matchup favors Georgia.  If Oregon wins against Georgia with Bo starting he will get the benefit of any coaching doubt for the remainder of the season.  E.g. Brown beating Ohio State.

 

If Oregon looses but Bo looks competent then we will need to wait for Game 3 against BYU to know what is really going on.  Not to diss Eastern Washington but Oregon can't measure it's starters in that game.  BYU is good enough to really see how the positions are executing in the new scheme.

 

The more complicated scenario is what happens if Oregon's offense looks anemic against Georgia (I think this is unlikely but still possible).  There are too many variables including an amazing Georgia defense to totally blame Bo.  If he looks better against BYU but struggles I would expect DL takes a long look at shaking things up to get the season rocking.

 

The truth is Bo is the expected starter because most believe he gives the Ducks the best chance to win games due to his game experience.  DL is very very smart and I don't think he's going to miss much in the QB competition.

 

It would be monstrously unfair to the receivers, o-line, etc to not put the best player forward in any position.  The investment strategy is understandable given Oregon's long term potential for the next four years but Oregon's seniors want to win as many games as possible so best player plays should be the mantra.

 

 

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On 8/15/2022 at 8:23 PM, Duck Fan 76 said:

I completely agree with your analysis on this.  We are going to learn a lot from the Georgia game about how all of the starters will fare this season and especially Bo.  

 

That being said Georgia is an uphill slog for sure and while Oregon is absolutely capable of winning in Atlanta the pure matchup favors Georgia.  If Oregon wins against Georgia with Bo starting he will get the benefit of any coaching doubt for the remainder of the season.  E.g. Brown beating Ohio State.

 

If Oregon looses but Bo looks competent then we will need to wait for Game 3 against BYU to know what is really going on.  Not to diss Eastern Washington but Oregon can't measure it's starters in that game.  BYU is good enough to really see how the positions are executing in the new scheme.

 

The more complicated scenario is what happens if Oregon's offense looks anemic against Georgia (I think this is unlikely but still possible).  There are too many variables including an amazing Georgia defense to totally blame Bo.  If he looks better against BYU but struggles I would expect DL takes a long look at shaking things up to get the season rocking.

 

The truth is Bo is the expected starter because most believe he gives the Ducks the best chance to win games due to his game experience.  DL is very very smart and I don't think he's going to miss much in the QB competition.

 

It would be monstrously unfair to the receivers, o-line, etc to not put the best player forward in any position.  The investment strategy is understandable given Oregon's long term potential for the next four years but Oregon's seniors want to win as many games as possible so best player plays should be the mantra.

 

 

Solid post. I could be 100% wrong and Bo Nix could go Joe Burrow and I'll be back here saying he is the MAN and I was wrong. 

 

Isn't FishDuck fun? haha. 

 

But Bo I think does have a bar to meet as far as how he plays. He has to play weel enough against UGA that we can't point fingers at him and say he didn't give us a chance to win...............

 

And he has to beat BYU at home........  if he can't pull that off then the heat is on........

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On 8/15/2022 at 8:32 PM, DazeNconfused said:

And he has to beat BYU at home

Agreed, you said it!  With this offense and these weapons any Oregon QB this year should be able to at least meet Justin's senior numbers.  If that happens Oregon will dominate the PAC.

 

If Bo hits a good stride and is looking comfortable in the offense then the second half of the Eastern Washington game is an opportunity to see whoever the coaches believe #2 and #3 are.

 

I would think if Bo plays 4 quarters against Eastern Washington then that means the coaches aren't seeing what they want to see and are giving him the game time to figure it out.  That would be a bad sign for Bo.

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On 8/15/2022 at 8:40 PM, Duck Fan 76 said:

Agreed, you said it!  With this offense and these weapons any Oregon QB this year should be able to at least meet Justin's senior numbers.  If that happens Oregon will dominate the PAC.

 

If Bo hits a good stride and is looking comfortable in the offense then the second half of the Eastern Washington game is an opportunity to see whoever the coaches believe #2 and #3 are.

 

I would think if Bo plays 4 quarters against Eastern Washington then that means the coaches aren't seeing what they want to see and are giving him the game time to figure it out.  That would be a bad sign for Bo.

I just posted in the other QB thread.

 

 

The staff here inherited Ty a five-star QB who was #10 in nation. Thats a sure thing and we run him out early this year and see if he blows up like he should. 

 

They go to Ty this year, and Moore gets a redshirt year next year before he takes over. 

 

It's coaching malpractice if you inherit TY and don't play him to see if he blows up, then you move to the five-star QB you got on Moore. 

 

If I'm going to fail, I'm going to fail on Ty and Moore.

Edited by DazeNconfused
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On 8/15/2022 at 6:12 AM, Pac10again said:

How many passing attempts against real competition have JB or TT had?  You want them to go up against one of the best defensive lines in the nation?  Not to mention 5-star defensive backs that all want to make a statement!   I still remember the two UTAH games.  This Georgia team is better than them.  Bo will start period.  Lanning knows exactly what the Ducks are going to see September 3rd in front of 100,000 Georgia fans.   No way he puts a QB in there with ZERO experience.  He doesn't want to lose by 40 either.

Not sure how many passing attempts JB or TT have had against "real" competition. I do know it's very minimal. Doesn't mean that one of them isn't our best chance to win, probable that Nix gives Ducks best chance at being successful. 

 

Fortunately for whomever starts, they won't be going up against the best D line in nation alone. Been hearing that the Duck O line could be one of the best in the country. That should be super helpful, ya think?

 

I want the guy who is going to trust the pocket, go through his progressions, and deliver the ball with accuracy. Minimize mistakes and lead this team. The guy who is going to stay cool under pressure. Thats not always Nix.

 

There are some absolute dudes in the Oregon WR room. It's their job to create separation. That should help. On top of that, Ducks have guys like Cota that can make difficult catches in traffic or poorly thrown balls. Oregon has some blue chippers who, I hope, can match UGA secondary.

 

College football is the ultimate team game. It takes all 11 and Oregon has some studs almost 2 deep across the board. Most talent Ducks have ever fielded.

 

So yea, if TT or JB are the best we can field, I want them going against UGA defensive line, linebackers and secondary. And I want them to win.

 

 

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On 8/15/2022 at 7:55 AM, Log Haulin said:

The leash of Bo depends on the ability of the underclassmen. I am not convinced Bo is day 1 starter. It's probable but I wouldn't be surprised if JB or TT win the job.

Not happening. Last thing you'll do is throw a couple of newbies out to start their 1st game against a top 3 team.  If that happens, we've likely already lost. No, if anything Bo will be a sacrificial lamb.

 

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On 8/16/2022 at 7:22 AM, Log Haulin said:

Not sure how many passing attempts JB or TT have had against "real" competition. I do know it's very minimal. Doesn't mean that one of them isn't our best chance to win, probable that Nix gives Ducks best chance at being successful. 

 

Fortunately for whomever starts, they won't be going up against the best D line in nation alone. Been hearing that the Duck O line could be one of the best in the country. That should be super helpful, ya think?

 

I want the guy who is going to trust the pocket, go through his progressions, and deliver the ball with accuracy. Minimize mistakes and lead this team. The guy who is going to stay cool under pressure. Thats not always Nix.

 

There are some absolute dudes in the Oregon WR room. It's their job to create separation. That should help. On top of that, Ducks have guys like Cota that can make difficult catches in traffic or poorly thrown balls. Oregon has some blue chippers who, I hope, can match UGA secondary.

 

College football is the ultimate team game. It takes all 11 and Oregon has some studs almost 2 deep across the board. Most talent Ducks have ever fielded.

 

So yea, if TT or JB are the best we can field, I want them going against UGA defensive line, linebackers and secondary. And I want them to win.

 

 

We can not afford a single mistake to win this game and as good as our D talent is this season, they still have to perform in a new scheme with no game experience in that scheme against arguably the best OL, RB & Receivers we'll see.  I would not want to throw a newbie into that game.

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This article just in the FishDuck Feed that may help with discussion on Bo. It includes stats from 2021 on all sorts of game situations involving Bo.

 

USATSI_18139419.jpg?w=640
DUCKSWIRE.USATODAY.COM

College Wire Regional Editor Patrick Conn reviews Bo Nix’s season in 2021 and breaks down his situational stats.

 

 

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On 8/15/2022 at 8:21 AM, Just Ducky said:

 I have confidence that Bo will do well at Georgia and he gives us our best and only chance to win an extremely difficult game. 

 

 The Ducks have enough talent to make Bo’s job a little easier than when he was at Auburn. 

 

 

That's quite a statement (the 2nd one).  Auburn was still pretty talented.  Oregon's strength (experience-wise) is the Offensive line and that's pretty key for any QB.  I do think you are right about the 1st statement: this would be a tough start for for either Thompson or Butterfield and Nix is probably the best choice, should he get the nod.  But sometimes tough starts build great QB's.

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