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Early Line on EWU Game Reveals Much...

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One of the more reliable betting sites (vegas insider.com) has announced the early line for the Duck's next game.  I think it reveals a lot, (although, they were way off on the -17.5 points they had favored Georgia by earlier).

 

Oregon -20, with an o/u of 72  This tells us 2 things (maybe):

 

1) the gamblers expect the game to be a lot closer than it looked like it would be just one week ago, and

2) our defense is expected to give up a lot of points.  To win by 20 with an o/u of 72 means EWU is expected to score at least 24 points.

 

Just some food for thought.  

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From the FishDuck Feed...

 

WWW.OREGONLIVE.COM

The Ducks are 20-point favorites against FCS Eastern Washington on Saturday (5:30 p.m. PT, Pac-12 Network) at Autzen Stadium, according to VegasInsider.com.

 

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It's a new defensive scheme and we will make a huge jump week one to week two. 

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Game two will be a lot more forgiving. Installing a new, complicated defense against a team where one mistake can cost you the game was brutal.

 

Game two should be a good time for some of this scheme to gel a bit under much more forgiving circumstances. A mistake wont be as deadly. 

 

Hope Ducks can get everyone some playing time to help work out some kinks in live action. 

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I want to see a huge improvement in play at the safety position.  

 

They are my biggest concern.  They made the LBs and CBs look really bad.  

 

If they have to start 20 yards behind the LOS they need to be replaced.

 

We witnessed 100 mph safety play from Georgia.  I'm seeing 80 mph play from our safety group. And they line up out of position and they read poorly.  

 

A safety is supposed to quickly asses if they have to cover a fade,post or corner route.  They are then to shut down the seam if the area they cover is "clear" ( in other words those routes are not a threat). Same for the dig route (as secondary responsibility).

 

TEs get open because OCs design plays to clear them out of the seam area they (safeties) naturally start from.  If they sit on the seam route, they can cover pass and run lanes easily.  Most especially if they have track speed.  

 

Our two most recent safeties (both NFL employees) we're excellent at reading pass schemes and closing to cover them quickly.  Both of our current safeties have not learned to for three years now.  

 

I thought Bennett Williams had learned that role well.  But he isn't playing in that spot anymore.  I believe that is a mistake.  

 

Heck I want to suit up now. At least there would be a reason for looking so bad (and I'd get to play RLOL). 

 

Oh yeah, 72 points means the Ducks are expected to score 44 to 48 points.  They better.  Or we have a serious problem on our hands. 

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On 9/5/2022 at 5:43 PM, DazeNconfused said:

It's a new defensive scheme and we will make a huge jump week one to week two. 

I'm hoping there's going to be a lot of "OK, I get it now" from many (most?) of the players this week, not only defense, but offense too.  Nothing like live, competitive action to nail down the lessons you have been trying to learn, perhaps abstractly.  Playing and scrimmaging with your own team is no where near what it is like going into a hostile environment with hostile players on the other side.  Stuff gets real and lessons get learned.  I too am looking forward to that big jump forward in performance.

 

Go Ducks!!

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Question: If it is there will it be because our players "get it?" Or will it come from the severe decrease in talent across the line of scrimmage? If that's the case all we can hope to be this year is a paper tiger who can thump the EWU's of the world but can't stand and deliver against the good teams still ahead.

 

That's why I'm looking forward to the BYU game. Game One told us that we aren't great, and Game Two can only reveal if we are pretty bad. No margin of victory over the Eagles will tell me a thing., but if we struggle...

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On 9/5/2022 at 11:39 PM, Duckpop22 said:

.That's why I'm looking forward to the BYU game. Game One told us that we aren't great, and Game Two can only reveal if we are pretty bad. No margin of victory over the Eagles will tell me a thing., but if we struggle...

Gaming odds are only that, odds.  But the big betting houses get things right more than they get things wrong and there's good research behind the odds.  Being favored by only 20 pts against EWU is not a good sign.  This is one game O must put the pedal to the metal, if they can, or there will be little confidence against BYU, another team the Ducks should be able to handle.  EWU game is more important than many are thinking it is, imo.

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On 9/5/2022 at 5:43 PM, DazeNconfused said:

It's a new defensive scheme and we will make a huge jump week one to week two. 

Of course, it's EWU and today's poll listing Georgia still at #2 is probably pretty accurate.  So of course there's gonna be a big improvement in the defense next Saturday.  Not sure what it will tell us if there is, tho.  Pretty sure what it will tell us if there isn't.

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I keep hearing a lot of "we will learn a lot when we play BYU" on here. I 100% agree. BYU beat Utah last year and always plays tough against a wide range of programs nation wide. They obviously aren't anywhere near what Georgia is but they are a good solid measuring stick to see exactly where the ducks are at.

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On 9/6/2022 at 9:29 AM, FreddyD said:

I keep hearing a lot of "we will learn a lot when we play BYU" on here. I 100% agree. BYU beat Utah last year and always plays tough against a wide range of programs nation wide. They obviously aren't anywhere near what Georgia is but they are a good solid measuring stick to see exactly where the ducks are at.

Agreed, but 1st things 1st.  

 

Take care of EWU.  Put 'em away early, if you can.  Maybe play one or both of the backup QB's to get them valuable real-game experience.  And thrash them.  Being favored by only 20 pts, at home, to a Big Sky opponent isn't getting much respect from the oddsmakers and/or pollsters.

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On 9/5/2022 at 7:06 PM, Mike West said:

I want to see a huge improvement in play at the safety position.  

 

They are my biggest concern.  They made the LBs and CBs look really bad.  

The safeties looked lost, Hill is still too slow to cover the slot and looked better when he was back and coming up to tackle. Bridges missed a lot of tackles and played too soft of coverage, that being said he didn't seam to be able to press and run with the WR's either. Bridges seems that he would be a lot more natural and safety as quick changes of direction especially on hooks seem to leave him standing still.

 

The DB's seemed flat-footed, Gonzalez was the only one that looked the part.

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