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Conference Realignment is Back in the Rumor Mill

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With a 12 team playoff on the horizon I’m pretty much done with worrying about which conference the Ducks will be a member. However, if the B1G is going to snatch Pac 12 teams I would hope they get enough to make another division on the West Coast.

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From today's FishDuck Feed, an article right up the alley of this post.

 

Pac-12 in danger of eventual collapse as Big Ten considers further expansion, Big 12 interest looms


If the Big Ten can get one more significant payday, it may be curtains for the Pac-12

 

WWW.CBSSPORTS.COM

If the Big Ten can get one more significant payday, it may be curtains for the Pac-12

 

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We are going to hear rumors all season and beyond. 

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But let's also get real here... 

 

The big-12 and ACC won't be power five. There won't actually be a power five there would be a power two... A Group of Five and an above average two.

 

The big-12 and ACC would be better than the G5 but not have anywhere near the same level of prestige or market value as the power two. 

 

At that point I figure we see this sort of thing happen... 

 

FISHDUCK.COM

The great college football schism is coming, and it will fracture college football in a way that will shake the...

 

 

FISHDUCK.COM

The Great College Football Schism is Coming, and it will leave College Football divided between the...

 

 

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The clearest path to the playoffs is staying right here in the PAC. Playoff money with conference payout could be close to B1G money and a clearly difficult path to the playoffs.

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Sorry in advance if this is long.

 

Despite this news, I feel like the PAC is going to stay together.  The tOSU AD was on record yesterday saying UCLA and USC were the only schools that made sense for them to add.  The Iowa AD has come out and said similar things.  I see a lot of arguments about the BIG taking UO and UW to reduce travel burden for UCLA and USC, but not so sure that argument holds water.  

 

In my eyes, the BIG wanted three things:

1) They wanted access to the SoCal Media market to increase the revenue for their TV deal.

2) They wanted access to the LA area because there are a ton of BIG alumni in that area.

3) The current schools wanted better access to the SoCal recruiting grounds.  If Oregon can take the best kids out of SoCal, what do you think Michigan, tOSU, and Penn State are going to do?

 

The BIG already got everything they wanted with the first round of expansion.  I don't understand the "on an island" argument.  Why does the BIG care if UCLA or USC are "on an island"?  In fact, I would argue that is a nice advantage for all the current BIG teams:

 

1) The current members only have to make 1 trip west coast trip a year max.

2) Having USC and UCLA on an island is going to make success for the LA schools a lot more difficult.  Just take a look at how difficult it is for NFL west teams to travel back east and win consistently.    

3) When USC and UCLA struggle after the move (and they will), schools like tOSU, Michigan, Penn State and even Wisconsin are going to have a field day recruiting in SoCal. 

 

I know both UO and UW are talking to the BIG, but I don't think they don't have the market, alumni base, or recruiting grounds to leverage the move.  If somehow the BIG gets a stupid money offer from Amazon for 3rd or 4th tier rights, then maybe it happens, but I just don't see it. 

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GeotechDuck...please always post with great responses such as that one.  Long ones are fine as long as people put paragraph spacing every three or four sentences, and keep the bottom of the post tight...all as you did.

 

There are others having a hard time learning that, but the way you write is informative, entertaining and easy to read.  Perfect.

 

And THANKS for the content of your post.  I know Hopkins at ScoopDuck has written off the Pac-12 for survival, but I am thinking that if the winners in the conference can receive half of the Playoff/Bowl revenue when they make it, and the powers-that-be realize it will be easier to make that Playoff in the Pac-12 versus the B1G, then Oregon and the Pac-12 can survive and thrive.

 

Especially if we have additional revenue from streaming.

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Mr. FishDuck

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Love it! We could be left out of the future by trying to protect the Pac12/11/10 of the past.

 

Holding on would most likely (2026) become a lost battle. 

 

CFB will experience gyrations during the major transition period. The next conference alignment may not be the last, but as the super conferences emerge, having the Ducks rest from flight in the B1G is a safe refuge for protecting competition, academic and athletic prestige, brand. and revenue.

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Why does none of this sound like a good thing to me?  

 

Pretty soon there could be 2 Super Conferences each divided into 4 major Divisions (each with their own minor divisions) like a mini NFL.  Is that where this is all headed?

 

Why not?  With the introduction of NIL policies and transfer portal privileges, it will only be a small step to introduce player agents, free-agency, union representation and College-Player Union negations over salaries and compensation, wouldn't it?

 

Amateur Collegiate Sport: R.I.P.  We could soon witness the birth of a true NFL minor league - just as soon as each college accepts the support from (and slides under the umbrella of) designated NFL teams.  

 

My question would be which NFL teams get to fight over Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State?  And who has to take ASU? 😉 

 

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Here is interesting feedback from John Canzano about it...

 

GLOOM AND DOOM: Jon Wilner and I posted a fresh episode of our “Canzano & Wilner” podcast this week. We talked a little about the hysteria and anxiety out there, specifically this week’s “gloom and doom” report from CBS Sports.

 

Ruminating on the “imminent” demise of the Pac-12 has broad appeal, I guess. Big 12 fans are into it. Big Ten fans are interested, too. That kind of piece will get lots of page views and prey on the anxiety of fans. But there wasn’t much in the way of new information in the report. Like, almost nothing new. It was also interesting that none of the other major media outlets picked up on it.


I don’t think Oregon-Washington or the “Four Corners” schools from the Pac-12 are going anywhere in this cycle. I am not predicting an implosion. 


In fact, I believe the Pac-12 will sign a media rights deal before the end of the year, possibly add 1-4 schools via expansion, and play on. I took this position in early July, not because I want or need it to be true, but because more than half of the conference’s ADs and a trio of university presidents have backed that up. 


My mantra here will always be: sourced… in-depth… reporting and commentary.


I suspect the entire “eventual collapse of the Pac-12” narrative is being pushed by consultants and public-relations teams, who love nothing more than drama. It results in billing, but it’s disingenuous, isn’t it? Everything, as the Romans will tell you, eventually collapses. 

Mr. FishDuck

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An unnamed (to protect the innocent's?) friend's opinion:

 

"Sure looks as if something is going to happen with further B1G expansion. Except for saying that UCLA will lose money by joining the B1G we have heard nothing from Kliavkoff.

 
I expect Uncle Phil is using all of his resources to push his friends in the B1G to take in the Ducks.
 
If this isn't a lot of hot air it would help with getting PO expansion on before 2026 with the Rose Bowl becoming less of an influence without the B1G/Pac-12 matchup.
 
I think Amazon may well be the key here? Allows the B1G to add 4 more teams without ipso facto hurting FOX' broadcast numbers. And Amazon would bring in enough new $ to persuade the B1G powers-that-be to expand to 20 teams and perhaps, beyond 20 teams?
 
If this happens, how will the SEC/ESPN respond? The ACC has a bad media deal through 2036 but the deal is with ESPN; ESPN mau well want to see some consolidation of the ACC/SEC. Clemson, FSU, UNC, NC ST to the SEC makes perfect sense. Not sure Miami moves the needle all that much and Florida might be willing to see FSU come on board but not Miami."
 
He might be onto something.
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Also, Dodd is a CBS guy who just happens to work for the company that secured BIG rights.

 

Might him blowing smoke try to influence

 

1) UC regents in that hey, let ucla go since the other 4 will be following soon.

2)  If the 4 join the BIG, then a West Coast division can be created and the travel issues minimized, so again Regents, set the Bruins free.

3) Torpedo current Pac 12 negotiations.

4)  Click bait.

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On 9/30/2022 at 12:54 PM, Steven A said:

Also, Dodd is a CBS guy who just happens to work for the company that secured BIG rights.

 

Might him blowing smoke try to influence

 

1) UC regents in that hey, let ucla go since the other 4 will be following soon.

2)  If the 4 join the BIG, then a West Coast division can be created and the travel issues minimized, so again Regents, set the Bruins free.

3) Torpedo current Pac 12 negotiations.

4)  Click bait.

Number 4!  Number 4!

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My take. Sorry but a little long.

 

First Gene Smith is not ruling out expansion.  Just stating that USC & UCLA actually increased value.  The four - Oregon, Washington, Stanford and Cal add value but not at an incremental rate to raise every other school in the Big Ten.

 

Second and more important.  President Johnson at Ohio State has stated on the day USC & UCLA were added, the Big Ten was not done.  During Notre Dame week, again she said the Big Ten that she believed that expansion was going to happen.

 

A little history.  Bo Schembechler was AD at Michigan when Penn State was added to the Big Ten.  He blew a gasket because he and the other AD's in the Big Ten were not consulted on the addition.  How were they going to integrate Penn State, how were they going to get there (Happy Valley at that time was not easily accessible) and other concerns.  The AD's were told by the Presidents - do it.  Bo was so pissed that he retired/resign as AD.  He learned who calls the shots, it is not the AD's BUT the presidents.

 

The travel issue is making a mountain out of a mole hill.

 

I believe the Big Ten is going to go to 10 games.  More content and greater opportunity to play more games within the conference.  Barry Alvarez in the past has argued for more games because they want to play each other more.

 

If all six schools are added. I believe they will play 10 games.  Meaning for west coast schools, 5 games against teams from the east.  3 games home 2 games away year 1 and 2 games home and 3 away year 2.    The west schools would be hosting 15 games a year.  On average, 1 away game for the 14 teams from the east.  Even with 3 away games to the east, that would be 1 game a month for west coast schools.

 

Basketball.  Even with 20 conference games.  I believe the west would play each home-away, 10 games there.  The other 10 games would be split, 5 home, 5 away against the east.  2 trips east would (Thursday & Saturday) would cover the requirement.

 

Football.  The Big Ten was told if they expanded, that re-negotiations would happen. According to the media agreement, there is a potential 2  to 3 billion available based on worth.  I believe that Oregon-Washington-Stanford-California will bring enough value to be added.  Even with a 200 million a year addition (1.4 Billion addition to the contract) each school would get 50 million a year.  If more than 200 million, say 240 million, then 60 million a school.

 

There are 3 addition windows available to the Big Ten.  Thursday night, Friday night and late Saturday night. One of the problems with late night PAC has been the lack of interest.  To booster this, I believe IF the Big Ten tied a west school against a midwestern school on late night Saturday, there would be greater interest from the mid west.  More people here in the mid west would watch.

 

Good luck.

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On 9/30/2022 at 10:18 AM, Charles Fischer said:

GeotechDuck...please always post with great responses such as that one.  Long ones are fine as long as people put paragraph spacing every three or four sentences, and keep the bottom of the post tight...all as you did.

 

There are others having a hard time learning that, but the way you write is informative, entertaining and easy to read.  Perfect.

 

And THANKS for the content of your post.  I know Hopkins at ScoopDuck has written off the Pac-12 for survival, but I am thinking that if the winners in the conference can receive half of the Playoff/Bowl revenue when they make it, and the powers-that-be realize it will be easier to make that Playoff in the Pac-12 versus the B1G, then Oregon and the Pac-12 can survive and thrive.

 

Especially if we have additional revenue from streaming.

Thank you!  I 100% agree with you that with the addition of the playoff spots there may be some creative ways to generate revenue and save the conference.  

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On 9/30/2022 at 2:12 PM, airspace said:

I believe the Big Ten is going to go to 10 games. 

Ten conference games?  While the SEC has eight?  Sure, let the B1G tie their arm behind their back for Playoff qualification, but they will be paid well for it.

 

Is that what Oregon fans want?

Mr. FishDuck

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On 9/30/2022 at 12:54 PM, Steven A said:

Also, Dodd is a CBS guy who just happens to work for the company that secured BIG rights.

 

Might him blowing smoke try to influence

 

1) UC regents in that hey, let ucla go since the other 4 will be following soon.

2)  If the 4 join the BIG, then a West Coast division can be created and the travel issues minimized, so again Regents, set the Bruins free.

3) Torpedo current Pac 12 negotiations.

4)  Click bait.

Agree.  Dodd is a hack that is always slamming the Pac 12.

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College Football Conferences With the Best TV Deals — And How They Might Make Even More

 

It appears all the talk is referring back to media rights and how conferences make more money by adding new members.

 

From the FishDuck Feed, this article relates to subject topic...

 

WWW.MSN.COM

An earthquake rocked the college football world this summer when the Big Ten Conference announced it was adding two West Coast schools, USC and UCLA, for the 2024 season. Explore: Your...

 

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Oregon will join the BIG10 the second they are offered. The media revenue payout alone would sustain the entire athletic department annually.

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On 9/30/2022 at 3:42 PM, Charles Fischer said:

Ten conference games?  While the SEC has eight?  Sure, let the B1G tie their arm behind their back for Playoff qualification, but they will be paid well for it.

 

Is that what Oregon fans want?

SEC is going to a 9 game soon.

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Pac-12 survival: Former Fox Sports president skeptical that Big Ten move

would make sense for Oregon Ducks, Washington Huskies.

 

WWW.OREGONLIVE.COM

The quartet probably wouldn’t be equal partners with the other 16 Big Ten members

 

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This makes the most sense. If you have a clear path to the Championship playoffs, then why mess with it? We have tons of money with endowments and the like. Keep putting an above average product on the field and in the Arena, and Oregon will be just fine.

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Here is a clip of Rob Mullens discussing conference expansion with a reporter from West Virginia.  If you are wondering about the connection, Rob attended UWV and Ally graduated from Oregon in Journalism.   

 

 

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