Painful

[Duck 68]

Although Coach Lanning says there were many mistakes that caused the loss, none was bigger than the bad snap on our final long drive. We were running down the clock and running through the Huskies. The winning TD was in sight. Then the bad snap caused everything to change. Painful. 

That play and our continuing horrible pass defense allowed the Dawgs to win. Never should have happened. Please, not the Sun Bowl again. 

[Triphibius]

However, I would like to point out that Forsyth played an outstanding game. Oregon was in a position to win in large part because of the play of our offensive line, to which he contributed a great deal. 

 

He was playing with a bad shoulder, and I am sure that it was bothering him. I suspect it was the main cause of the bad snap. Oregon could have won despite that, but that is for another thread. 

 

 

[DuckIt]

Forsyth was hurting.  His shoulder was bothering him which probably affected his snap.  Only after that bad snap, did the coaches take a timeout to let him rest.  The coaches should have taken a timeout before that play, if they knew it was an issue.

Edited November 13, 2022 by DuckIt

[DuckIt]

On 11/12/2022 at 6:43 PM, Triphibius said:

However, I would like to point out that Forsyth played an outstanding game. Oregon was in a position to win in large part because of the play of our offensive line, to which he contributed a great deal. 

 

He was playing with a bad shoulder, and I am sure that it was bothering him. I suspect it was the main cause of the bad snap. Oregon could have won despite that, but that is for another thread. 

 

 

You beat me to it.

[Annie]

Well, I think before the season started the thought of 9 or so wins sounded good. Hope we can still do better than  that.

[AnotherOD]

What is pretty painful was the pass rush tonight (actually what is possibly even more painful is wondering where the pass rush is going to come from next year?).

 

I was kinda upset when it was absolutely and painfully obvious dropping 7-8 against Pennix (and the solid pass blocking UW OL) was not going to work - that the defense didn't try some pressure.

 

Send some guys. Force a couple quick throws, maybe a bad throw or turnover, maybe get off the field. Not falling into the trap of doing over-and-over what is obviously failing (the infamous definition of you know what).

 

If not, what do you lose? Dropping eight into a baby soft zone was not going to stop them. Pennix has thrown all over pretty much everyone this year; and, it quickly became apparent Duck defensive "Plan A" wasn't going to work. Even Bennett Williams - a veteran and about as solid as the Ducks have at safety - got badly toasted twice for long TDs. Our best CB appeared to be playing a solid game, and the defense still gave up giant chunks of passing yards.

 

The only chance the D had all night was maybe defending a short field just because it is easier to maybe hold em to a FG. In another thread, someone suggested on-side kicking to UW everytime was actually a sound decision. The only shot at stopping them was either a red zone error or a FG, so why not just go ahead and get on with it? And if the on-side kick worked once? Would steal a possession and overall be a more sound strategy. I think it was a joke?

 

Then I realized, the Ducks didn't pressure, because I don't think they have that as part of their defense. They don't have the guys so I don't believe they even have the defensive blueprint to try it. We aren't Georgia but we have a Georgia coach, and Georgia watched people sit back and get thrown all over by Tennessee and decided they weren't going to be the next in line, and they got after the Tennessee QB. What did Kirby say after the game? "We didn't come here to take shots. We came here to deliver them." Ok maybe we aren't Georgia, but is the UW Tennessee? ASU took down the UW with their backup QB.

 

People will say DL needs to get more of his guys, fair enough. But it sure seems like Oregon State can manage to field a defense with 11 guys I imagine Oregon didn't recruit very heavily (if at all).

 

Edited November 13, 2022 by AnotherOD

[Just Ducky]

 I have always heard and experienced that defense is way easier to play than offense. Can’t believe ours is not improving. Actually it’s mind boggling. What’s up with our five star linebackers.

[Charles Fischer]

AnotherOD, I am not going to get into a long discussion of disagreement with your post tonight.  Suffice it to say, we have written many articles about what Oregon's defensive strategy is--based upon what can and cannot do.

 

Things changed when we sent six rushing against Eastern Washington and still had no pressure.  Thus we reverted to a higher-percentage defense to operate in conjunction with the offensive strategy.

 

And sometimes it does not work because the other team is pretty good on that night too.

[AnotherOD]

I know "bend but don't break" has become a bigger part of college football; and, in my limited viewing, seems to be creeping more and more into the NFL as well; but, I still think there is plenty of room for pressuring the QB.

 

It absolutely is preferable if done by 3 or 4 guys who can get home (Jalen Carter, Jordan Phillips, Myles Murphy type kids); but, not too many teams have those kind of dudes and there are other ways to do it. Sure those increase risk, but getting picked apart regularly playing coverage can't be called not risky either.

 

Do we know predictably dropping 7-8 into coverage actually is actually always a higher percentage play?

 

From a math perspective it makes sense - as who wouldn't want more guys defending the pass - but it also ignores the fact that QB play is generally worse the greater the pressure; and, generally OLs will have more trouble the more guys they have to block.

 

More guys to block should mean more pressure which MAY mean poorer QB play than what you get with the QB instead having to sort through more guys in a zone and no rush.

 

I haven't ready any study, any "analytic", that clearly shows playing coverage always generates predictively better outcomes. I would further speculate the "safe scheme" quickly generates poorer results the better throwing QB the team faces.

 

Guys like Pennix, Stetson Bennett, DTR, Rising, Hendon Hooker are less and less likely to get confused by the extra bodies.

 

In the Oregon case, if we wanna forget veteran Washington QB Pennix, veteran Georgia QB Bennett is interesting to recall as he went: 25-31 for 368 and two TDs against Oregon.

 

Pressure obviously is far from about defenders always getting to the QB. It is making them hurry. It is getting them off their spots and making them uncomfortable. It's about not letting down field routes develop. It's about hurrying a QB so they don't even see open receivers. It's about occasionally (within the rules) hitting the QB (the more the better). It about throwing a big wrench into the offense's carefully laid out plans.

 

Percentages would say dropping into coverage should have at least limit explosion plays. You at least get that.

 

It certainly failed to do that tonight (and at other times during the year). So what statistic or odds are being served when it fails to do even that?

 

And finally I would ask, why exactly are the Ducks so handicapped they must play this way? Is the Duck defense against Washington basically Oregon playing with Portland State talent?

 

Dorlus was a bit of a developmental kid; but, was committed to Virginia Tech and reportedly had at least 28 other offers including Florida (where he visited), Clemson, Auburn, and Baylor. I think most see him as one of the defense's best players.

 

Bridges was a bit of a developmental kid; but, was a member of the ESPN 300, set the Alabama high school record for interceptions, was three time Alabama all-state, and had a reported 22 offers, including Florida, Florida State, LSU, and Oklahoma.

 

Bennett Williams was a freshman All-American, left Illinois, was a JC All-American, and was the #2 JC safety prospect and #14 overall JC prospect at San Mateo before Oregon.

 

And these are Oregon's lowest rated defensive starters. The rest are five stars, four stars, and top 250 national prospects (some coveted top 80 prospects), with offers all over the Pac-12 and other FBS top-25 schools.

 

Yet this defense is limited in what it "can and cannot" do and has to play one way because anything else isn't feasible?

 

I understand defense in college football isn't easy right now; but, Oregon State seems to be doing much better (including better against the UW at Washington) with a bunch of kids Oregon didn't recruit very hard (in most cases not at all). While Oregon has a defense full of kids Oregon State likely would have likely taken commits from in a second.

 

I thought a less mentioned factor in the game was the UW's two ends ZTE and Trice.

 

Trice was a "three star" and ranked #458 and ZTF was a "three star" and ranked #811, yet they seemed to be getting pressure most of the game against a Duck OL that has played well all year. Yet Oregon can't find a few kids who the staff can turn into impact front 7 guys?

 

I guess what I am missing is the idea that the "D" just isn't very talented and the secret I'm missing is everyone else is finding nice ways not to directly say it?

 

Well, Gonzales and Sewell have been mentioned as possible first or second round NFL guys, I think Dorlus is seen as a draftable guy, same with Williams, and despite some struggles, the NFL remains aware of Flowe, and that by itself is almost half the starting defense.

 

Edited November 13, 2022 by AnotherOD

[AnotherOD]

I remain a bit baffled. I understand putting in a new defense but aren't there nearly as many situations like Jim Knowles (new DC at Ohio State) where a turnaround can happen quickly as major rebuilds? Maybe Trent Bray as well?

Edited November 13, 2022 by AnotherOD

[Flaps2]

Might be time for the program to allocate NIL resources towards defensive lineman and edge rushers. Atheltic corners and linebackers are a dime a dozen out west but premier pass rushers & line stuffers are a scarce commidity especially west of the Rockies.

[AnotherOD]

It's going to be interesting with DJ Johnson and Dorlus (likely) leaving, with Popo's status up in the air, and the possibility of Sewell entering the draft (and even possibly Funa departing if he doesn't take his extra COVID year) in regards to the pass rush (and DL in general).

 

While QB pressure hasn't been especially notable, the DL has been pretty solid against the run. On paper with guys possibly moving on, maybe Ma'ae, Rogers or Taimani, Ware-Hudson, and Swinson plus the ILB?

 

Edited November 13, 2022 by AnotherOD

[Mic]

I hate to say it but if Oregon can't beat basically a one-dimensional team like Washington, on their home field, then Oregon wasn't going to go far in the post-season anyway.  A CFB Playoff berth might have been an embarrassment like it was for FSU when we knocked them out, or for ND a few years back.

 

A decent bowl game appearance is still in the works, maybe even the conference championship if they can somehow stop Utah and OSU.  Fortunately, the Beavers don't have a throwing game anywhere like UW's.

[Mic]

At 6-1, Oregon is still not out of it as far as Conference standings go.  Unless last night's injuries prove too severe to overcome.

 

Edited November 13, 2022 by Mic

[latracey]

At 6-1 in conference play, Oregon is definitely not out of it, but Washington exposed and took full advantage of the weaknesses in Oregon’s defense. 
 

The Rising run Utah offense is better than Washington’s offense, and their run defense is a whole lot better. Oregon State is playing lights out at home and will be motivated to beat Oregon. The Ducks have the toughest 2 games remaining of any of the top teams in the conference. 
 

I’m really hoping Nix’s injury isn’t too severe and that he’s ready to roll next week. That said, I think Oregon’s coaches and players learned some valuable lessons in last night’s loss. I’m excited to see how the coaches and players respond and rise to meet the challenges of their next 2 games.