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ptdduck
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Posts posted by ptdduck
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Herbert is a special talent, the fact that Oregon couldn't max his talent out is an indictment of the scheme and the coaching. You can blame the receivers all you want but I'd take a great QB over great receivers any day of the week. QB Coaches John Beck & Pep Hamilton, and OC Shane Steichen get a ton of credit for getting the most out of Herbert.
If Shough goes off at Texas Tech, that will be another indicator of lackluster coaching.
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We have the talent but the player development and schemes on the offensive side of the ball are lacking. I'll give Moorhead a mulligan for this year but he's got a lot to prove next year. If the defense is not dominant, then we won't win the south. For better or for worse, we're a defensive oriented program under MC.
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This team would have been a juggernaut from day one had it not struggled with injuries and Covid. It only took 10 games for the pre-season starting lineup to gel.
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There's a big question mark whether the coaches can actually develop QBs. They didn't max out Herbert's talent and Shough was a blue chip recruit in his third year with the program and got worse as the season progressed. If Shough tears it up at TT then that will be an indication of poor coaching.
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Definitely concerned about the offense and the QB development. I didn't see too much of a difference in the offense under Moorhead. Some cute trickery off play action and running the QB were added but still way too much power pistol for me.
We've got weapons galore at wideout this year and we should be throwing the ball a ton. If the coaches are intent to run the football first and foremost with the pistol then pair the RB with the most explosive athlete at QB who scares the D with his legs. I really hope Moorhead has complete autonomy.
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I never really saw Barner as a power runner at all. He's not that big, about 195#. He was very quick, though. His production was due to Chip Kelly's blur offense and Mariota's elite athleticism. Barner wouldn't come close to his production under Kelly in the current scheme IMO.
Shough has all the tools. I question his development under the coaching staff. I think he's a better player than what he's shown on the field.
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Need to be a lot more efficient on offense today to win. We're still trying to figure things out. Richardson really needs to step up. I would like to see us attack the rim a bit more and get to the foul line.
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Brown is a very average QB IMO. He's more of a stopgap solution in the short run. The bigger concern I have is the development of the QBs post-Helfrich and the offensive scheme. Herbert was way under-utilized in this golden era of passing.
JoMo wants to run the QB more, which is fine, but is Butters that type of QB? If that's the direction we're going to head then having an uber athletic QB that scares the D is necessary. I don't believe Brown is that guy due to his knee injuries. Robby Ashford is definitely that guy. His athletic ability is off the charts and he would turbo charge the running game and create more explosion plays. I'm not advocating to run the QB more but if that's what the staff wants to do then get a guy like Colin Kaepernick or Lamar Jackson at QB.
My preference is to lean on the pass more. Attack teams horizontally and vertically. Use all the skill players as receivers. Butters would be a better fit in that type of system. Thompson might be that guy too. I just don't see us going in that direction offensively. We're stuck with the pistol for better or worse.
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Adrian Jackson might be the most explosive athlete on the D. He can cover and blitz. If he's healthy, I think he gets a good shot at the spot. I would really like to see him finish his career on a high note.
DL: Swinson, Dorlus or Williams
NT: Popo
Joker: KT
Sam: Jackson
Will: Sewell
Mike: ISM or Flowe
CB: Wright, Manning or James
FS: McKinley
SS: Hill
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I wouldn't be surprised if he excels at another school like Brian Bennett did at SE Louisiana.
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Loved this article. I can see KT and Sewell thriving in this scheme.
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On 1/20/2021 at 9:02 AM, AnotherOD said:
I haven't seen anyone suggest Anthony Brown was coming in with some sort of perfect career arc. If so, he probably wouldn't have been a transfer.
As for trajectory, its a nice idea, but going back to before Bill Musgrave, I can't see a single case of a starting Duck QB actually fitting that narrative? Marcus is maybe the only one close to it, but Marcus was great as a freshman, a bit better as a sophomore, and a bit better as a junior. He went from like an A- to an A to an A+ over his 3 years. The rest of the guys generally were better as seniors sure, but:
Justin Herbert: PE rating went from 149 to 168 to 145 to 157. Completion % started at 64% and ended at 67%, dropped to 59% as a junior. His TD/INT percentage was 0.83 as a freshman and 0.84 as a senior.
Darron Thomas: two years as a starter, great as a sophomore and slightly better as a junior. 62% completions both years, passing efficiency 151 to 159, TD/INT 30/9 then 33/7.
Jeremiah Masoli: PE rating went from 132 to 130 to 121. TD/INT started 13/5 went to 15/6 finished 14/13. Completions 57% then 58% then 56%.
Dennis Dixon: PE rating from 142 to 121 to 161. TD/INT from 6/3 to 12/14 to 20/4. Completion percentage 66% to 61% to 68%. No real trajectory between so and jr. 2007 Chip Kelly era magic as sr.
Kellen Clemens: PE rating from 140 to 132 to 153, completions 60% then 60% then 64%. TD/INT 18/9, 22/10, then 19/4. Like Dixon, first year better than second, jumped in third.
Joey Harrington: sophomore and junior years very similar statistically, a bit better as a senior (PE 133 to 125 to 144, completions 53%, 53%, 59%, TD/INT 10/3, dropped to 22/14 then improved to 27/6).
Tony Graziani: 7 games then 11 games then 6 games, finally threw less picks as a senior but completion percentage 54% all 3 years, PE 120 down to 111 up to 131.
Danny O'Neill: PE rating 118 Up to 149 down to 124, completions 56% to 62% down to 53%. INT did improve 11/10 to 22/15 to 22/9.
Bill Musgrave: all four years roughly the same: PE rating (137 to 123 to 132 to 130), completions (59 to 51 to 58 then 58), TD/INT (13/8, 8/4, 22/16, 17/12).
As odd as it may sound, the one guy on this list that probably "fits" this narrative best is Anthony Brown at BC over his 3 years.
PE rating went from 103 to 135 to 155.
Completions went from 52% to 55% to 59%.
TD/INT ratio improved from 0.55 to 0.69 to 0.82.
It's worth noting that both Clemens and Herbert played in multiple offenses. Clemens started off in Tedford's offense, then Ludwig's, and finally Crowton's spread. Chip Kelly was hired after Crowton. Herbert played in Helfrich's version of Chip's offense, Taggart's Gulf Coast, and Arroyo's pistol based scheme. Clemens benefited immensely from Crowton's scheme. The last two schemes Herbert played in did not come close to exploiting his passing ability.
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Trey Benson has good size at 210#. Hopefully he gets a shot next year.
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1 hour ago, BigDucksFan said:
Although Rivers played for the Chargers for FOREVER, I can't remember him winning any Supper Bowl games. A few playoff games but never all the way.
A good player but not a "Great" player. You don't want to turn the "Hall of Fame" into a place for regular Joe's. It should be reserved for exceptional players.
The QB position gets too much credit for wins and too much for losses. Rivers played for the Chargers, a franchise that has never won the Super Bowl. It wouldn't be hard to imagine him playing in the Super Bowl or winning one had he played for a better team. He's a very good QB. A Hall of Famer? That's debatable. He's a better QB than Eli Manning IMO and he won two Super Bowls.
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20 hours ago, BigDucksFan said:
Are we looking at another "Rookie of the Year" ??
He won't get enough minutes now that Kemba Walker is back from injury. So much depth at guard for Boston. It will be interesting to see if Ainge pulls the trigger on a trade.
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Impressive. He's playing like a veteran.
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8 hours ago, BigDucksFan said:
Right now Justin is not the weakest link in the Chargers armor, however the defense is. I suspect that had a bearing on the matter.
The Chargers were one of the most injured teams last year especially on D. It's not hard to imagine them winning close games if they're healthier. I don't know why they would want to change offensive staffs when Justin had so much success.
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This seems like a step backwards unless they can retain QB coach Pep Hamilton and OC Shane Steichen. Herbert blossomed under their tutelage. Now he has to start all over learning a new offense that may not benefit him. His development is the key to the Chargers long term success and I'm not sure why they would want to screw that up unless they got a big time hire at HC.
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Good article, Charles. I try to be a realistic fan, although that's a contradiction at times. It's hard to separate my enthusiasm for Oregon sports from the actual play on the field. It's perfectly fine to be critical of the coaching staff and strategy. Given the obscene amounts of money coaches are getting paid, we should be critical of them. It's also OK to criticize players for their play on the field but one needs to be careful doing so. The players are not getting paid and they're just young men. Often our expectations of them are way too high.
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Duarte looks like an NBA player IMO, very skilled and smooth.
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Agree 100%, Joshua.
This goes back to the offensive philosophy of MC and JoMo, power running takes priority over passing. What we saw in the NC game is that high-powered passing teams light up the scoreboard with big plays. We're living in the golden era of passing but we haven't gotten on board.
If we want to take the next step, we need to feature the passing game. Top notch skill players and elite passing QBs will eventually figure out that Oregon is not the place to showcase their skills.
We can win a lot of games with the power running but it needs to be augmented with a QB that can really run and threaten the D on every play. Guys like Colin Kaepernick and Lamar Jackson lit teams up at Nevada and Louisville.
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Pittman and D Williams have NFL talent. It would be a shame not to feature them. TE Webb is also a big time receiving threat and he's been woefully underutilized. What's the point of recruiting top notch players if you're not going to exploit them? The offense needs to be much more aggressive in the passing game.
Did Oregon Fail To Develop Justin Herbert?
in Our Beloved Ducks
Posted
We had very good receivers too which just goes to show the conservative nature of the offense and the lack of development in Shough.