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Joshua Whitted
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Posts posted by Joshua Whitted
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On 11/3/2021 at 9:57 AM, 30Duck said:
It' s interesting how much 1 game means to a lot of teams. Oregon has the W over tOSU, Cincy, the W over Notre Dame. Oklahoma needed the QB change to beat Texas. Michigan State is 8-0. But its come from behind W over Michigan is its first W over a team with a winning record. If Michigan had held on they'd be an even stronger No.2 with 3 wins, Western Michigan, Wisconsin, and would be, Michigan State.
Alabama starts every season knowing they can lose 1 and not worry about the CFP.
Yeah, there's really only a handful of noteworthy opponents a team will play all year, so those big games hold a lot of weight.
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On 11/3/2021 at 6:32 AM, Confused said:
I don’t think so. Oklahoma at number 8? They should be 4. Oregon 5 Cincinnati 6 OHio State 7
Interesting. I assume you're valuing the undefeated record a bunch?
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On 10/27/2021 at 8:29 PM, C J said:
" Joe Moorhead was the mastermind behind Oregon’s thrilling victory."
Very true......very true. It's clear now that between the Ohio State and the UCLA games Moorhead exhibited mastery of scheme and Brown proved capable of implementing the plan.
So the million dollar question is reinforced. Why have the Ducks coaches seemed out-schemed by the other five coaches they have faced? It has to do something with motivation. We have two data points that lend credence to both the coaches and teams abilities. The x factor to me has to be desire and respect. Desire to draw up a superior game plan and respect to the opposing foe.
If they only play well as underdogs, then let's call them underdogs for the rest of the season. Fine by me.
I actually have a theory that admittedly holds little weight considering I'm definitely not an X's and O's expert. But I think UCLA and Ohio State had the two most "defined" (for lack of better word) defensive schemes of all of the Ducks' opponents so far. Ohio State almost exclusively plays cover 3 and cover 1. UCLA centers their scheme around blitzing. The Ducks knew what they would be facing in each of these games and schemed towards the weaknesses of each of these schemes. The rest of the teams they've played have far more varied defensive schemes, so we kind of just ran our base offense with mixed results.
It's unrealistic to change up an entire offensive philosophy week to week, which is why I think it looks like we decide to turn it on in these big games. Really, I think they are the few games that we dedicate a year to really switching up our offense in order to take advantage of holes in a well-defined defensive system.
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On 10/27/2021 at 1:03 PM, Duck1984 said:
Well done analysis Joshua!
It seems that UCLA gave the Ducks all they could handle with a game plan built on schemes and execution. Faceless opponents approach, with an experienced roster.
But the Duck coaches appear to have out-schemed Chip, but with less experienced talent. The exception was AB, who had enough talent and experience to lead the Duck offense to a victory.
It’s hard not to be optimistic about this team and coaching staff going forward.
It's games like this that have me thinking the sky's the limit for the team and the offense. Let's hope we can be consistent and keep the ball rolling!
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On 10/27/2021 at 12:58 PM, Charles Fischer said:
Joshua! That is a wonderful analysis as you did not just explain two plays to us, (tunnel screen and QB Counter) but why they worked. It is so fun as a fan to see the "why" of it all, and to take what you have taught us and apply it to future games. Really an outstanding analysis from the perspective of making it easy for fans to understand, and yet so informative.
Thanks so much!
Thanks, Charles! I'm glad it was easily digestible. Cristobal is right when he talks about how wild UCLA's defensive scheme is, so I definitely wanted to spend some time crediting him and Moorhead for having a great gameplan for it.
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On 10/27/2021 at 10:26 AM, Jon Joseph said:
Thanks Joshua, great analysis.
Chipper are crew were outcoached. Chip is being paid $5.6M a year (Mario, $4.4M/ Smith, $2.4M) and is under contract through 2022. However, his buy out goes to $0 in mid-January 2022. The current UCLA AD did not hire Chip.
Chip's recruiting numbers stink; especially, considering the LA location.
The Bruins in 2021 is a very experienced team. Lots of starters depart after this season including QB DTR.
Kelly obviously has not produced the expected results and I don't see him in Westwood after 2022. Perhaps he is gone after this season?
This was a really big loss for Kelly. This is the year his team should be in Pac-12 title contention, and that looks a far way off after this past Saturday.
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On 10/27/2021 at 9:57 AM, Haywarduck said:
The scheme was also what AB does well, with a few exceptions. I hope Joe also learns from this and keeps AB doing what he does best.
AB is actually a very good qb when asked to pass the ball, it seems, no further than 10-15 yds down the field. It will be interesting to see a future defense play a press coverage and what AB can do. If I was an opposing coach that is what I would have learned.
I would think between what AB does well and our running game we can score enough to win out. The question is the turnover game if AB gets slinging it. Oregon needs to stay in its lane and keep executing.
Great analysis and thanks for all your hard work on the article, enjoyed it!
AB generally executes the underneath passing game very well and decisively, that's a great point. I think Moorhead is doing his best to coaching to his strengths, as opposed to making him make full-field reads.
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On 10/27/2021 at 9:42 AM, 30Duck said:
Thank you Joshua for the inside look, It showed what can happen when Mario does what so many of us have wanted. Don't just hire great coaches; let them do their jobs! Explaining how Moorhead used UCLA's defensive scheme against them is what a top flight OC does when the head coach let's him.
Hopefully Mario recognized that this is what occurred, it was causation that Moorhead coordinated the offense and the Ducks won.
I couldn't agree more. Moorhead is a top-10 playcaller and offensive mind in my book. I sure hope he hangs around for another season!
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On 10/27/2021 at 9:35 AM, Smith72 said:
Thanks Joshua for the excellent analysis!
The UCLA game was a perfect example of playing "Smarter" instead of "Tougher". Hats off to Joe Moorhead for his play calling! Kudos to Tim DeRuyter for making adjustments to the defense!
The coaches and players came out of halftime with their hair on fire. Adjustments had been made and coached. How long has it been since an Oregon team exploded in the third quarter!
Here's hoping for more games (all 4 quarters) like we saw in the 2nd and 3rd of the UCLA game! Go Ducks!
Absolutely. My initial title was "How Moorhead Outsmarted Kelly." The Ducks were the smarter team, and it's why they won the game.
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On 10/27/2021 at 7:13 AM, HappyToBeADuck said:
Joshua thank you for the great explanation and examples on how the offense took what the Bruins gave them
JM 's game plan and intricate scheme was executed very well by the players. Sure we had a few mistakes along the way but CK and his staff either didn't or couldn't make the adjustments.
The defensive coaching staff also made the adjustments needed to shut the Bruins down for 2 quarters. And the D played with their hair on fire. CK and his defensive staff again didn't make or couldn't make the adjustments.
Who was the better coached team last Saturday? Whose players executed better?
Well done players and we'll done coaches. Let's continue to go 1-0 this week. Maybe, just maybe we can settle the issue early and I can cancel my visit with the doctors. You know for high blood pressure and anxiety.....
Go Ducks!
Thanks for reading! The defense played fantastically, and a second analysis article could certainly be attributed to its performance.
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To become an elite team, I knew we would need to develop a passing attack that can take advantage of teams stacking the box. For the first time under Cristobal, I saw an offense that was capable of doing that. He and Moorhead deserve a ton of credit for that gameplan, and I am very encouraged for the future of the offense if they can keep it up. I've been one of the more vocal skeptics of the direction of the team and the offense; I am happily eating crow after yesterday's game. I know we let them come back, but we played like a top-tier team for most of that game, and I'm so proud of the team and the coaching staff.
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I think this is a really good topic, because most of the national media concludes that it's LSU hands down. In fact, I've seen some call it the very best job in college football. The advantages for LSU are numerous: located in the most fertile recruiting region in the country, it's the only Power 5 program in one of the most talent-laden states in the country, it has a recent history of success, it has a very solid brand and program tradition, and the program is totally dedicated to football.
With all of that being said, I don't think enough attention is being given to the disadvantages, though -- the biggest being the Alabama factor. Not only do the Tigers have to compete with the Tide yearly, but they will always be measured against it. A coach can be relatively successful there and still be looked at as a disappointment because Alabama and Saban are going undefeated every other year. Also, just because LSU is the only Power 5 school in Louisiana, it's not like the rest of the SEC isn't within a close-enough range to regularly recruit it. Devonta Smith and Dylan Moses are just a couple examples of Louisiana-born players that Alabama poached, and they're not alone. Both SEC schools and Texas schools will regularly recruit the Pelican State.
USC isn't as good of a job, primarily because LSU is located in the Southeast. But they're way closer than I think the pundits are making it out to be. As a side note, I don't think either job comes close to the best in the country. Georgia, Alabama and Ohio State are probably in a tier of their own in my opinion.
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On 10/20/2021 at 1:57 PM, Steven A said:
I agree with the statement above that this year is frustrating over disappointing SO FAR.
This is Mario’s 4th year. Last year really should pretty much be thrown out. But it was similar to this year in that we don’t have an above average QB. Obviously, we did with Hebert and he was absolutely mis-used for Oregon’s purposes, and that is on Mario and his offensive coaches.
I am willing to let the coaches decide when the other QBs are ready. If they aren’t, then AB shouldn’t be benched. There is no use throwing out a freshman QB who isn’t ready just so he can get reps and throwing away a season. That is what the off season is for, training.
Up North they have a 5 star frosh QB sitting behind an average at best starter (not that I would ever want to compare myself to them); and, at Oklahoma, their frosh QB was the #1 HS QB in the country and is living up to that ranking. In TT’s action so far, he hasn’t looked anything close to what Caleb Williams is showing.
Each year the talent is getting better. The talent around AB on both sides of the ball is better than before. Maybe we just have to wait until the QB talent equals the other talent.
I don’t want to be a Mets fan and “wait until next year”, so go with what the coaches say is our best chance to win now and develop the next QB later.
Yeah, the problem is, Cristobal has shown an alarming habit of not developing quarterbacks, even talented ones. Herbert was obviously underdeveloped at Oregon, but many forget that Tyler Shough was a former blue-chip recruit as well. He wasn't developed at all here. It's no guarantee that TT, even with all his talent, succeeds with the track record of poor QB development under Cristobal so far.
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On 10/20/2021 at 12:56 PM, Jon Joseph said:
Terrific, nuanced, balanced article. Thanks again Joshua.
I do see two camps of Ducks football fans. And I am judging neither one.
The first group sees college football as it was prior to the BCS and the Playoff. A regional game where the only thing that truly matters is winning the Pac-12 against old foes and playing in the Rose Bowl on January 1st, preferably versus a Big 10 opponent. Who cares what people outside the Pac-12 conference think about the level of football being played out west? This is the Conference of Champions and football is only one of but many sports played in the Pac-12.
Mario is a very good man who is trying his best. What else more can any sane person ask for?
The second group sees college football since the advent of the BCS/Playoff to be a national, big time, big money sport. The sport that nationally stirs the national drink, both reputation and money-wise. The Ducks should roll through a milk-toast Pac-12 season after season, make it to the Playoff and win Playoff games against the best competition in the nation. When the Rose Bowl is not a Playoff semi-final site, it is a hyped-up exhibition game between non-elite college teams.
Mario can recruit but is way over his head as a head coach and will never produce the results on the field that equal the quality of the roster he has assembled.
Mario Cristobal has been a head football coach for 70+ football games. Over this period of time he has an average record as a HC.
The first group believes Mario is learning and growing as a head coach. He will soon be at the top of his game and have the team ready to play every game. This is only his 4th season. The team is young and injured. What until next year! Or, the year after that? With a young team close games are to be expected. A W is a W, what do you want?
The 2nd group believes that Mario has no potential for growth. That he is a good person who can recruit but does not have the chops to be a successful P5 coach; a playoff winning coach. He is a micromanager playing not to lose instead of playing to win. With the NFL Rookie of the Year playing QB he could not make the Playoff and won the Rose Bowl versus a 3L opponent by 1 point. And Mullens gave him an extension and a $9M buyout? We're stuck with him we might as well try to make the best of it? But its a grind and it ain't easy.
What side of your bread do you butter?
It's sports! So I am not the least bit surprised to see the dissidents making more noise than those who are satisfied with Mario's performance to date.
Personally, FWIW, which is not much, I think Mario's coaching zenith is playing in the Rose Bowl in the year when the RB is not a semi-final site. He will not take Oregon to the Final 4 and will not win a national title.
If you are OK with paying @5M a year for THIS? That's fine, eh?
Jon, you never cease to amaze me. Terrific thoughts, and I am 100% in the same boat as you are in your conclusion.
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On 10/20/2021 at 12:37 PM, Duckman said:
Disappointment sums it up nicely. Something is missing inside the culture that leads to a team effort that is often less than the sum of its parts. I think the booing on Friday reflected that. It's not just Anthony Brown. How about the OL consistently missing pass blocks? How about LBs that continually struggle in pass coverage?
Cristobal is an incredible recruiter and the pieces are in place for a successful season. However, recent efforts do not inspire confidence about longer-term success.
Very nicely stated. I agree wholeheartedly.
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On 10/20/2021 at 11:57 AM, Charles Fischer said:
I think it is accurate in my situation to say that I was "disappointed" in the fall of 2018, and when I wrote then that, "Unless there are dramatic changes....Mario Cristobal will not take us to the promised land."
That was disappointment, but three years of compounding decisions that I disagree with may have turned into more...
And that is happening with a critical mass of fans as well, IMHO.
I'm sure many other .. more descriptive words could certainly be used to describe some feelings I have toward the direction of the team. But I figured I'd take a tamer approach this time
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On 10/20/2021 at 10:28 AM, HappyToBeADuck said:
Thank you for another deep thought provoking article Joshua! Depending on one's expectations, the first 6 games have generated one hec of an emotional roller coaster ride.
Personally, my feelings toward the coach and staff are mixed. MC and his staff have done an amazing job with the defense. Mixing and piecing youngsters together to field a unit together takes quality coaching. Playing players at positions they have never played, especially at this level, takes coaching. Players need to practice and play together to jell and build trust. This has not happened this year. Yet the D is giving up less than 20 ppg.
That being said. Garbers missed two wide open receivers on the last drive. Why? Because film study showed that Garbers does not throw well on the run.(read a pre game article about this). DC called plays to constantly flush Garbers out. Well done coach(s).
The offense is another mixed bag of coaching. At times the offense moves the ball with ease. This unit has been efficient in the red zone. However, this unit has left multiple scores on the table from penalties or fumbles that negated great plays. Plays that would have been 1st downs into the red zone. These games should not be one score outcomes. That's on the players the first few games. After that its coaching. Come on coaches. Are changes necessary?
UCLA will be the pivot point of the season for this team. There is enough tape on the Bruins for MC and staff to know what's coming. There will be no surprises for our defense. Stop the run and force DTR to beat you with his arm.
The Bruin defense cannot stop this offense. Only our players can stop this offense. Coaches it's time. If the players cannot execute and generate points....make changes.
Mario, toughness isn't just on the players. Personally, I like you and your staff. Sometimes I just don't like your decision making.
Go Ducks. Beat the Bruins and rule the southland.
The UCLA game will be very telling. Mario tends to bring it in big games, so I'm actually expecting big things out of us.
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On 10/20/2021 at 10:10 AM, 30Duck said:
Disappointed is the perfect adjective. I'll never get the image of the Tweet in the Oregon Football Account of the "Gutsy" win against Cal. No way should a Top 10 4-1 team need a "gutsy" effort to pull out a win over 1-4 Cal, at home.
To be underwhelmed by this season's team takes nothing away from Mario's earlier seasons, in fact, it's those seasons I'm thinking about. The Ducks should be getting better, and this season isn't. 5-1 is a great record, but all 5-1's aren't the same. The Ducks struggled, really, in every game, except the one at Ohio State.
It seems like Cristobal has a plan, but I don't know how he's going about putting it together. "He says he wants his teams to be tough. "I'm thinking he's wanting them to be like his teams at The "U". They aren't.
My goodness your first paragraph sums up my thoughts exactly. Squeaking out a win like that against a conference bottom feeder shouldn't be championed.
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On 10/20/2021 at 10:09 AM, Haywarduck said:
I would suggest Mario Cristobal is the most disappointed in the team so far. He just goes about his disappointment differently than most fans.
He sees the potential in Flowe, Bennett, Thibs and others and their injuries. Their potential and outcomes are a major disappointment, but he has to move on.
Our young qb's are a major disappointment. He knows this team could, would and should be better if these guys were ready, but they aren't. He see what will be and not being able to highlight this yet is a major dissapointment, but he has to move on, support what we have.
There are a bountiful number of disappointments with this team. I can only imagine Cristobal sits back every once and a while, and laments what could, should and would have been, but only temporarily. A leader has to do exactly what he is doing, fans don't have to.
He has to be a bastion of strength in a sea of disappointment. Our job as fans and pundits is to point out that disappointment, but I would argue it is also to move on and support the many great stories within this amazing team.
I know for me that is the only way I can stay an active, healthy Oregon Duck Fan. That is the Oregon way to me, but to each his own, Go Ducks!
I wholeheartedly agree that Cristobal's approach has to be different than one of fans. I do think it's fair to question whether or not he is handling the situation he has been dealt as well as he should. (On the field, of course.) I'll leave my thoughts on that matter at that.
But I do definitely agree that there are many great stories worth celebrating, specifically the efforts of Travis Dye. He has really developed into a do-it-all, top-tier Pac-12 running back.
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On 10/20/2021 at 9:41 AM, Confused said:
I am a paying member of the Duck organization. I buy tickets, merchandise, and promote them. Quite a following now in Northern Arizona! So I believe that give me every right to question what is happening at Oregon. If we had the same talent as everyone else in pac 12 I would be singing Praises to the coaching staff. But we have twice if not more talent and easily could have 3 losses. I have yet to hear one compliment in the real world, about Oregon’s coaching staff, other than “They sure can recruit.” I pay for the right to voice my thoughts about what I find a very “odd” mind set of what’s best for Oregon football and it’s fans. Maybe we fans just don’t matter?
You -- and every other Oregon fan -- has every right to question the situation.
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On 10/20/2021 at 9:25 AM, Smith72 said:
Thanks for the article Joshua! You make a well written argument for expressing the disappointment many fans have.
You give proper credit for the good things MC is doing for the Duck program. In addition no one can question Mario's good work ethic, honesty, and connection to the players.
"Disappointment" is a good word to describe my feelings this season. The young talent is there. Play it! The 6th year senior quarterback without a doubt does not have the decision making ability or the vision to play quarterback. Bench him!
I'm disappointed that Oregon coaches do not coach up the young quarterbacks and get them ready to play. I'm disappointed that Oregon coaches are so stubborn and settle for a "game manager" instead of a leader!
I thought one tenet of the culture was to instill competition. When you can't perform the next guy takes your place! So far I guess QB is an exception!
Very good point, we can criticize the on-field results, but that in no way takes away from the character and drive of Cristobal. It's not for lack of trying that he's struggling; I would never accuse him of that.
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30 points per game
25 points allowed per game
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Darren, I love the premise of this article, and what you write is true; we do have the talent to have a stifling defense.
The problem is, the defense unfortunately has been more than leaky ... it has been simply bad for most of the season. For all of the justifiable complaints about the offense, we actually rank far better offensively than we do defensively (51st in yards per game and 89th in yards allowed per game). I'm skeptical of the replicability of turnovers; I think they can be coached to a degree, but they're still a highly volatile metric. I'd like to see us simply give up less yards as a consistent means of success.
Sewell is a force in the run game, but I'd like to see our interior defensive linemen pull their weight. I talk all the time about the talent we've accumulated, but the defensive interior is one area where we haven't recruited all that well, and it was a concern of mine heading into the season. I've long been begging for a pass rusher opposite Thibodeaux to step up, and surprisingly, that just might be DJ Johnson who has shown more promise than anyone else this season. I don't want to be too hard on the coaches here, because Bradyn Swinson and Trevon Ma'ae are still really young, so they might be next in line as far as pass rushers go.
Mykael Wright has been good, maybe even really good this season. And McKinley has been dominant for stretches this season. But each of their opposites have struggled, and a secondary really needs each member playing at an above-average level to get consistently good results. I liked seeing Bridges make plays on Friday, and hopefully he continues to get better, because he has real plus traits at the position.
I sound like a broken record, but I do think the future of this defense is going to be determined by how well DeRuyter can coach the players up. If he's going to play spot-drop zones, the linebackers have to be taught where to drop, and what routes to read, because too often they look lost in underneath coverage. Ideally, I'd love to see us line up and play a bunch of cover 1 with our athletes in the defensive backfield, but I don't know if that's the route DeRuyter wants to go.
As with the whole team, this defense has the potential to be elite. Personnel wise, aside from the inside linebacker position opposite Sewell and on the defensive interior, we have NFL-caliber athletes. Can they be coached well enough to play like NFLers? That's the million dollar question.
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On 10/6/2021 at 12:56 PM, C J said:
This statement sums up the collateral damage that this new brand of football has brought to Oregon. This is a HUGE problem for our team and could be a canary in the coal mine regarding future recruiting and potential success.
As for the article, it's another gem in my mind.....spot on....pretty much a mic drop.
My big question: is Coach Cristobal some sort of player loyalist or what? At this juncture he has to make some tough calls and start giving the rock to TT, Donte, Franklin, Trey Benson and Byron Cardwell. This has to happen starting next game. These five players have to start getting a ton of reps. These are the guys who have the potential to take us to the NC game in the next few years. To do it they need reps right now.
What is the best way to coach up talent? Reps in real games and lots of them.
Folks, we have seen the product this year. It is insanely inconsistent. Time to play for the future. Let's stop cutting off our nose to spite our face this season.
You are certainly not alone in wanting to see more young talent on the field. What is there to lose by letting a bunch of super talented players gain experience and learn on the fly in a pretty underwhelming conference? I'm with you all the way.
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Did the CFP Committee Actually Get It RIGHT?
in Our Beloved Ducks
Posted
Great point, Hayward. It's definitely smart to wait until late in the season to start ranking teams, I have to give those involved with the playoff credit for that.