That's a great perspective should OBD come up short on Saturday, but think about our prospects if we actually pull this off and look good doing it!

 

Despite all the early season hand-wringing, with a win on Saturday, our Ducks could be the unlikely #1 ranked team in college football for the foreseeable future.  We would at least split the vote with Texas and with Texas matched up again Oklahoma this weekend, anything is possible.

 

Did not see that one coming a month after Idaho and Boise St.

I wrote this back in April (any of us could have predicted it) and we are here:

 

The pendulum has swung dramatically in favor of highly talented college football players.  If the pendulum is done swinging, one has to wonder if the current state is sustainable.

 

I don't think the pendulum is done swinging.  There are still questions around tampering, player agents, there will be NIL buyouts, and using NIL in lieu of scholarships allowing teams to work around the 85 scholarship limit.  It is wild out there right now and it reminds me of children playing on a playground with no supervision.  At some point, someone is going to get hurt and the yard duty is going to come over and put an end to all fun.  The NCAA has been rendered toothless and it may not be long before legislation steps in to classify these athletes as employees.

 

Now you're dealing with minimum wages, insurance, workman's comp, unions to increase fairness up and down the roster, etc.  At this point, we can remove the word student from student-athlete.  Once the student tag is removed, why would there be any limit on how long an athlete can play college football?

 

I'm not sure how far the pendulum will continue swinging, but I don't believe we've reached a steady state.

 

Once government gets involved, I think non-revenue sports will fold because the same rules for football can't apply to non-revenue athletics.  This will in turn lead to a bunch of Title IX issues.  Not to mention the trickle effect throughout FCS, Division I, and Division II where little to no revenue exists.  What are we thinking?  You DO NOT want the yard duty to get involved!

 

Schools may shut down football all together once it becomes a losing proposition with compensation and regulation in the mix.  If colleges were smart (hopefully there are a few left), they will give up the arms race and gather together and create a league in parallel that returns to pre-NIL days and simply offers scholarships with a return focus on the student part of student-athlete.  Let the semi-pros, who are wealthy enough, have their league and whatever ramifications.

Oregon

42-10

2 turnovers created

5 sacks

327 passing yards

On 9/17/2024 at 3:12 PM, cartm25 said:

Can't limit this to one, sorry. Here are the games I could watch highlights of on a loop, all day every day:

 

2007 - vs. Michigan - Two statue of liberty plays; one real, one fake . . . all in front of 100+k fans live, and viewed nationwide.

2009 - vs. USC - Halloween Night in college and I was screaming at my TV while all my roommates were out partying and I ignored trick-or-treaters.

2010 - vs. Tennessee - Scored in nearly every way possible: LMJ 70+ yard TD run, Punt Return, Kick Return, Pick-6 . . . Glorious day against the SEC!!

2010 - vs. Stanford - Got down big at half, looked daunting against recent nemesis, stormed back and sealed it with a HUGE LaMichael James TD run.

2011 - vs. Wisconsin - Rose Bowl win . . . and DAT was electric.

2014 - vs. FSU - So satisfying to humiliate Jameis Winston on such a big stage.

 

This is an outstanding list!  Like you read my mind on all of them.

 

2002 Fiesta Bowl vs #3 Colorado.  #2 Oregon won 38-16 - One I haven't seen mentioned is 2001 season ending win in Joey Harrington's swan song that quite literally ended Colorado's run as a football power.  Colorado was the talk of college football outside of #1 Miami after steamrolling Nebraska and clipping Texas for the Big 12 Title. Oregon's dilemma broke the BCS computer-only formula as #4 Nebraska jumped #2Oregon for a spot in the National Championship.  They returned with a human poll element into the equation the next year.

[Edit: @QuackyQuack, did already flag this game.  My bad)

 

Most Inexplicable Game:  2001 vs. Stanford at home blowing a 14-point 4th quarter lead including a blocked punt (42-49).

Most Stressful Game:  2011 vs. Auburn for the National Championship.  Every. Single. Snap.

On 9/11/2024 at 1:25 PM, David Marsh said:

Stay tuned for tomorrow... this year reminds me of 2014 actually and my article tomorrow will break it down. There are some interesting similarities.

Intriguing thought David.  Could be an interesting parallel.  Team flirted with disaster the first half of the season until it finally happened at home against Arizona (aided by a ridiculous unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on Tony Washington following his 3rd down sack late in the game).  The following week, OBD rebounded for a tough road win against a 10-win UCLA team and went on to realize their potential and obliterate everyone by an average of 29.4 ppg (including PAC 12 title and the first CFP game) until the National Championship game.

Also loved what the Boise St. coach had to say for the halftime interview telling his players "your best is enough", "don't try to be someone you're not", "don't put your superman cape on", and "finish together."

 

It's coach speak, but you don't want to see your players start getting desperate and try to over-compensate for another teammate on the field.  Mistakes start compounding and games can unravel quickly.  As they work through these early season issues, the Ducks must maintain full trust in one another and believe you can do what you were brought here to do. 

I'm freeing myself from having to form an opinion about our season this early.  I'm disappointed that Idaho and Boise St. have both looked much better prepared than the Ducks have in the first two games.  Oregon was their Super Bowl circled on the calendar for 9 months.  They could both end up having outstanding seasons.

 

We were incredibly spoiled with the offensive efficiency with Bo Nix over the past two seasons - never seen before and maybe not again for a long time.

 

I'm more concerned about Gabriel's execution through two games.  It's not clear to me that he's reading the defense or his protections at the level I thought he would with his experience.

 

Consequently, it's not clear where he wants to go with the ball.  Going through progressions, instead of hitting a hot read.  Apparently, one second may be too long to hold onto the ball at times.  And where is our screen game?

 

And I hope DG and other players drop this FEBU quip very fast.  There's a better way to say this that doesn't include your fanbase.

Thank you Charles.  That was one of the most fascinating football articles I have ever read.

 

One primary thought - our offensive line has been practicing against one of the best defensive lines and best overall defenses in the country.  I don't want to sounds like an entitled fan and even if we're not in the top 5, we're still one of the best in the country and one that no FCS team could come remotely close to matching.  How could an impressive Idaho squad make our line look so bad?  Were there not serious warning signs in practice?

 

Secondary thoughts

1)  Pre-snap leadership at the line of scrimmage from Gabriel and the Oline has to dramatically improve.  Nix and JPJ were fantastic at seeing the defense, recognizing coverage and blitzers, and making those pre-snap adjustments.  DG is on pace to be the most experienced QB to ever play college football and I hope we see improvements here.  I know this takes time.

2)  I wonder how much helmet radio communications factor in here.  It's brand new and perhaps there was an over-reliance on getting the call right and maybe too much communication prior to the play vs. lining up on the ball and trusting your instincts on what you see right in front of you.

 

Again, thank you so much for the wonderful read, Charles!

Of all the things taken from us in 2020, watching a college team try to eliminate Payton Pritchard and the Ducks from the NCAA tournament that year will always be one of the biggest for me.

I like 10.5.  Ohio State still feels like a wildcard to me.  Their offense has to improve dramatically over last year to be the threat everyone presumes.  Did everyone really catch up to Chip Kelly or is he finally back to a coordinator position where he really belongs - a genius micromanager with singular focus?

 

Two teams being dangerously underestimated in my view are Michigan and Alabama.  There is a lot of championship pedigree at both locations.  Michigan will have things figured out by time we visit.  Looking at what KDB did at Washington, I think he's being underestimated in Year 1 at Alabama with significantly more talent.

 

Still think our Ducks are going 11-1.  If we can run the gauntlet at 12-0, this could be a really special season.

We went from "Shhhh, don't tell anyone" to "I'm openly suing University #2 for not paying me the millions promised me to buyout my previous contract I walked out on with University #1 which is why I'm making millions more from University #3" real quick.

 

"Sadly, unethical and illegal tactics like this are more and more commonplace in the Wild West that is today's college football landscape," the lawsuit states. "As the first scholar-athlete to take a stand against such egregious behavior by adults who should know better, Jaden seeks to hold Defendants accountable for their actions and to expose the unchecked abuse of power that they shamelessly wielded."

 

I'm not sure who's abusing who any more.  Maybe it's us.

This thing was so overblown and frankly missed context.  I always understood his "clicks" comment to be in reference to Colorado players coming into Autzen early and "desecrating" the O logo on the field for social media and talking trash at Oregon players during warm ups as he also went on to extol the team to talk with their pads.  Lanning was encouraging his players to forget the noise on social media and take care of business on the field.  I never took it as a sweeping statement about the Colorado football program or Sanders.

Appreciate your thoughts on NIL Charles.  For myself, a better college football product always centered around a fair way to crown a national champion like every other sport on earth - without subjectivity from voters or committees.  I'm not looking for a more professional product, because I enjoy the more amateur nature of college football with stronger elements of local and regional flare.

 

Like you, I'm happy to see more young men choosing to stick around longer to develop and mature although I wish NIL wasn't the primary factor.

 

The pendulum has swung dramatically in favor of highly talented college football players.  If the pendulum is done swinging, one has to wonder if the current state is sustainable.

 

I don't think the pendulum is done swinging.  There are still questions around tampering, player agents, there will be NIL buyouts, and using NIL in lieu of scholarships allowing teams to work around the 85 scholarship limit.  It is wild out there right now and it reminds me of children playing on a playground with no supervision.  At some point, someone is going to get hurt and the yard duty is going to come over and put an end to all fun.  The NCAA has been rendered toothless and it may not be long before legislation steps in to classify these athletes as employees.

 

Now you're dealing with minimum wages, insurance, workman's comp, unions to increase fairness up and down the roster, etc.  At this point, we can remove the word student from student-athlete.  Once the student tag is removed, why would there be any limit on how long an athlete can play college football?

 

I'm not sure how far the pendulum will continue swinging, but I don't believe we've reached a steady state.

Not related specifically to the Oregon State, but I must confess it's really difficult to watch former women's Duck basketball players starting and absolutely thriving at other programs.  What on earth has happened to our women's basketball program?

 

Sydney Parish (Indiana), Te-Hina Paopao (South Carolina), Jaz Shelley (Nebraska), Kylee Watson (Notre Dame), Maddie Scherr (Kentucky), and Angela Dugalic (UCLA).  I haven't even followed WWBB this year and their names are coming up everywhere.

I’m so tired of barking up this tree, I just don’t care anymore. It works so much in favor of the SEC, why would they ever change?
 

Incompetent AD’s and presidents do nothing about it while the SEC puts on a straight face and then laughs all the way to the bank. 
 

They’ve all made their beds…

Lopes Up! (my kiddos attend there)

This is insane!  Now NIL deals with have more strings attached and time of service elements.  Then new NIL deals will have to buyout old NIL deals.

 

No wonder student athletes weren't allowed to previously hire agents.  These agents have nothing better to do than constantly shop their clients around as they do with coaches.  In the old world, once you hired an agent, you were no longer an amateur athlete and disqualified from college athletics.

On 3/15/2024 at 7:35 PM, EastBayDuckDad said:

Did the Ducks just punch their ticket for an at large to the Dance?

Lots of bubble teams on the outside ahead of Oregon have had good conference tournament success. My guess is Ducks will also have to win tomorrow. 

Thanks for the great article Mike!  I appreciated your comment about the ACC possibly being the only conference with any prospect of winning a national title outside the Power Two.

 

It's been clear that power has been consolidating towards a few programs even within these conferences.  This has always been true, but with NIL, the transfer portal, and expanded playoffs, these top teams are able to build systems that ensure their power is entrenched for much longer periods of time.

 

The introduction of the 85 scholarship limit instituted a quasi salary cap that led to the golden age of college football parity and popularity.  NIL and transfer portal have given top programs new levers to horde top talent and avoid any lapses of success.  Expanding the playoffs to 12 teams ensures the super powers can lose 1-3 games and still win championships.

 

For teams on the outside looking up, you are not going to beat 3-4 NFL caliber teams in a playoff.  You could have the best season in school history only to smashed in the 1st round of a playoffs.  So at what point do those teams throw in the towel and opt for a new system that reverts to elevating the student in student-athlete?

 

Right now, it looks like the Power 2 and ACC are strong in number, but the likes of Rutgers, Maryland, Vanderbilt, Minnesota, Indiana, Illinois, and Arkansas just have to hang on and enjoy the revenue.  They don't have to win anything.

 

If Oregon wasn't top tier, I'd probably have thrown in the towel on college football.  The only way to make our voices heard as fans is to turn off the TV.

Praying for rest and recovery! 🙏🏼

If I were UCLA, I would target top tier coaches in the ACC and Big12 who are on the outside looking in at the Power 2 conferences.

 

I think it's time for Jimbo Fisher to land another contract 🙂

I think Chip will really enjoy letting go of top level operations to just coach football again on one side of the ball.  It could really reinvigorate him again and solidify Ohio St. as the B1G frontrunner and 2024 national title contender.

 

The other side of the coin is UCLA getting a better head coach with athletic director synergy.  Someone who thrives recruiting, understands and embraces NIL, and turns UCLA into a bigger west coast threat on the field and in recruiting battles.  Will be keeping a close eye on the UCLA replacement hire.  It was so nice to count on mediocrity in Westwood.

There's a lot of reasons I've stopped watching all professional sports, but entitlement and showboating are at the top of that list.  It's gotten pretty bad at the college football level, but I reserve Oregon Ducks as my sports outlet.

 

Drexler era and brief Pippen/Wallace/Sabonis era gave us hope, but there hasn't been any hope since the NBA stars started joining forces and assembling super teams instead of committing themselves to beat their rivals.  There is more parity now, and it would be the perfect time for the Blazers to finally be good, but they're not.  I have no hope or expectation that they'll contend for a championship again.

Eight conferences of 10 teams each to crown an 8-team tournament champion is absolutely perfect!!  And that's why it will never happen.  Bracket should also be predetermined, not based on rank.  Remove all judging and guesswork.

 

I don't care about at-large bids or second place conference finishers.  Results matter.  In general, the best teams win tournaments, but not always.  It's exactly what makes following sports so compelling.  If David slays Goliath, Goliath shouldn't get a second shot.

 

However, I am open to allowing 2nd place conference finishers their own tournament as it's own compelling twist to highlight conference strength or "what could have been."  Like a consolation bracket.

 

College presidents would never back moving up and down divisions based on W/L results.  This should remain standard Division I requirements over the course of a number of years.  With transfers, graduations, recruiting, football rosters are too volatile to move teams around based on one year's on field performance.  Scheduling also becomes an issue.

 

If conferences need more than 10 teams to accommodate all Division I teams, they can go back to divisions if necessary.  Figure it out.  You only get to send one champion to the playoff.  The SEC has been gaming the system for years with 8 conference games and 14 teams.  They don't care about a true conference champion as much as they want two playoff teams - minimum.

On 1/31/2024 at 9:59 AM, Drake said:

If employee status is granted, then some colleges would be forced to eliminate sports because of the costs. If sports get eliminated, then opportunities to compete for many student/athletes are also eliminated. 

This statement from Drake perfectly summarizes the end result if current trends are not reversed.  The equity and logic are simply not sustainable. 

 

I've maintained this from the beginning - athletes need the stage that college football provides to achieve their dreams, and as long as no other minor league exists, colleges have a monopoly on amateur athletes.

 

There is a reason athletes choose college football over other non-NFL pro and semi-pro leagues - the opportunities and rewards are far greater!

 

Imagine these dominoes falling:

-if players are employees, they must be compensated (wages and benefits and insurance)

-if some football players are employees, all football players are employees

-if all football players are employees, all student athletes are employees

-if student athletes are employees, then they are not student athletes thus no student requirements

-if there are no student requirements, there should be no limit on the number of years an athlete can play at a college

-now you're stepping on the NFL's toes as several star athletes choose to stay at college (on field coaches) vs. grinding against pros for similar pay

-now the cost of maintaining an employee base for both revenue and non-revenue sports is so prohibitive, colleges begin dropping some or all sports programs

 

OR colleges elect to join true amateur conferences (if still permitted by law) where there is absolutely no student-athlete compensation permitted outside of standard books/tuition/room/board/equipment.

 

If college football was smart, they would walk all of this back.  Once insurance and laws get involved, they may end up killing their golden goose.