I feel like very insecure coaches make the jump "while the iron is hot" and while their stock is high.  When they know they won't be able to maintain their current level of success.  There will always be an "Alabama" job in the future for Dan Lanning who is one of the youngest, most successful coaches in the game.  If he believes in what he's building in Eugene, then he will stay and see it through.

 

There is no upside for the next Alabama coach and Lanning is smart enough to remain patient for his time - which could always be Eugene.  He wants to go through the process of becoming a champion like he's preached to his players.  I don't think he's looking for a shortcut.

Time for Jimbo to land another contract!

I know a lot of us have mixed feelings about our 2023 football campaign, because we fell short of winning the last Pac-12 title and a playoff spot.  We had a special quarterback with a lot of experience compared to the traditional powers (Georgia, Alabama, Ohio St., & Clemson) which gave us a window of opportunity.  Michigan and Washington were two exceptions who could match us with quarterback experience (McCarthy more for playoff experience) and Washington was just a bit better than us on two occasions.

 

It's easy to compare ourselves to the very best team(s) in college football each year amongst a sea of 130+ teams full of phenomenal athletes and coaches.  This can be a frustrating exercise, but definitely something we all strive for our Ducks to become.  However, looking back, we have a lot to be thankful for.

 

Here are the blessings I counted:

• Won 12 games for only 6th time in program history.
• Dominated a NY6 Bowl Game 45-6.
• Enjoyed national championship aspirations through the Pac-12 title game.
• 1st Heisman Trophy Finalist since Marcus Mariota in 2014.
• Scoring defense improved from 77th to 11th (17.3 ppg in 2023 vs 27.4 ppg in 2022).
• Total defense improved from 75th to 22nd (320.3 ypg in 2023 vs 386.1 ypg in 2022).
• Scoring offense improved from 10th to 2nd (44.2 ppg in 2023 vs 38.8 ppg in 2022).
• Total offense improved from 6th to 2nd (531.4 ypg in 2023 vs 500.5 ypg in 2022).
• 1st in all of FBS in total passing yards per game (346.9 ypg).
• Still in a power conference (B1G vs. Pac-2/MWC).
• 2024 schedule is packed with intriguing matchups against (Michigan, Ohio St., Michigan St., Wisconsin, Washington, & UCLA)
• Top 5 Recruiting Class
• Landed key portal additions for next season (including a Heisman trophy front runner).
• Most starters opting to return where possible (especially on defense)
• Coaching staff remains intact for the first time since _______(?).

 

If I would have seen the above back in July without knowing the results of the Pac-12 title game or the national championship, I would have been ecstatic about the upcoming season.

 

What other blessings did I miss from 2023 or current state of the program?

It's my observation that Penix was playing hurt most of the 2nd half of the season after the 1st Duck game.  There was a clear drop in performance after the initial injury.  He held it together for Oregon and Texas, but it doesn't take much to get hit the right way to aggravate a serious injury.  Penix looked and played as if the next hit he took could have been his last play which would have gave the game to Michigan.

 

Agree that our Nix was more effective under pressure this year and has proven to be more durable, but Penix has been the better pure passer making the more difficult throws all season.  Unfortunately for him, the long list of injuries may affect his draft position a bit.

What Washington has that most college teams do not are experienced, NFL-caliber playmakers.  Playmakers vs great offensive/defensive systems.  And KDB is wise enough to let his guys go out and make those NFL level plays (Oregon should have forced the ball up the field to Franklin more against Washington).

 

The Husky running game may struggle, especially without DJ, but if anyone can use a short passing game in lieu of running the ball, Penix and co. can.  Washington receivers manhandled our DBs in the screen game.  Look for Washington to stretch Michigan sideline to sideline to open up those running lanes later on.

 

It should be a good game.  I do agree with the sentiment that great defenses nearly always put a lid on great offensive systems, but only great playmakers can shut down other great playmakers.  Does Michigan have enough of them?

Interesting that Washington beat Michigan to finish the 1991 season and win their co-national championship.  The Pac-12 got their first playoff win since the very first playoff game when Mariota and co. creamed Florida St. in the Rose Bowl.

 

I'm intrigued to see what DeBoer and the staff come up with, especially if Dillon Johnson is hurt.  Washington has some real special playmakers on offense and Trice is having one of the best defensive seasons I've seen in the Pac in a very long time.

 

What Michigan accomplished against Alabama seems really impressive.  However, this is the same Alabama team that can beat Georgia, but also lose at home to Texas by 10 and should have lost to Auburn.

With Brooks, Dorsey, Bell, and Boucher, the Ducks needed very little from Pritchard his freshman year. If Shelstad is this good this early, that’s a wonderful sign. 
 

I pray that he is as durable as PP.  It would be a breath of fresh air if we could finally put a healthy roster together. 

At this point, why not just drop the whole student part of "student athlete"?  Really!  Why even make the athletes attend classes?

 

College football is now a marketing arm for the university to raise millions to offer other sports.  Maybe that's the way we should be looking at this.

On 12/5/2023 at 6:53 AM, TXDuck said:

I have a question for everyone here, is rent a QB going to be our future?

Personally - I don't like what the game is turning into and it all started with greedy coaches jumping from job to job and raiding university coffers along the way.  I guess it's fun when you're on top, but this is as far from the amateur sport we enjoyed growing up and there is little to no loyalty anymore - not from coaches, not from athletes, not from conferences, not from television partners.  If I wasn't such a Duck fan, I would be done with this.

 

Practically - The trend is clear: where you start is not where you'll end.  It makes absolutely no sense for 99% of high school athletes to sign with a top school because you will never see the field.  Go to a school where you will get playing time and earn yourself a $1M-$2M deal to transfer somewhere else.

This has to be devastating to FSU players, coaches, and fans. Can you imagine this happening to the Ducks with Nix injured? If I was Florida State I would boycott the bowl game. 

I’d love to see analysis on the contrast of defensive back play throughout the game which I saw as a huge disadvantage for us mostly in the screen game. 
 

Duck DB’s simply couldn’t get off blocks, waited vs attacking ball carriers, and consistently took wrong angles in 2 on 2 or 3 on 3 situations. 
 

Conversely, Washington DB’s attacked our screen game running and tackling downhill like no one else has this year. WRs and TEs missing blocks. Tight coverage and Nix throwing across Troy Franklin and not letting him go up.

 

Husky DB’s came to play and our DB’s were physically no match. 

On 12/1/2023 at 10:18 AM, mikethehiker said:

 

I think the key to this game is going to be containing Dillon Johnson.

 

Well, that sucked. Same play, pulling guards, over and over. 

Lanning had enthusiastic praise for Cam Ward with the sideline reporter following the Washington State game.

Ducks 38-13

3 Turnovers

4 Sacks

325 passing yards

 

Penix is hurt in the 1st half, tries to tough it out lending to more turnovers, backup comes in and leads to more sacks.

On 12/1/2023 at 9:49 AM, Charles Fischer said:

For those who have a problem with hitting Penix hard early--see the video below.

That hit by Evan Williams turned the whole Stanford game around.  Woke up the entire Ducks' sideline.

I think the key to this game is going to be containing Dillon Johnson.  It will be feast or famine between Penix and Odunze, but the Ducks cannot let Dillon Johnson get started.

 

Washington's ground game is vastly improved since our first meeting, likely due to the injury to Penix.  Let Penix and Odunze connect a few times, but don't let Johnson, Polk, or the tight end get any rhythm going.

On 11/29/2023 at 3:33 PM, BeaverStateDuck said:

So I did the DVR trick

This is how I watch every game. Start it one hour late and catch up by the end (ideally). 

There was a bit of mystique with Washington the first time. They looked untouchable. I wasn’t terribly worried about losing the first game because I knew we’d get a second chance with one loss since we scrapped divisions. 
 

Oregon lost, but we proved they were beatable and left a blueprint for others. It’s like when Rocky finally hit Drago in Rocky IV - “he’s cut, the Russian’s been cut and it’s a bad one.”  Now we go in and finish it. 

I’m just not sure PAC-12 teams travel as well - even to Vegas. Levi Stadium was embarrassingly empty for the title games there (likely due to Fridays). Giving up a conference home game wouldn’t happen but you never know. If it makes even $1 more than a regular home game, all bets are off in this day and age. 

I just don’t see Deion hanging around college football once his kids are gone. Not for long anyways. 

Yes, this happens every year and also to the BIG12 for playing nine conference games.  Nine games will not hurt Michigan or Ohio St. because no other B1G team can throw a vertical pass.

 

SEC and ACC skate by every year with one less conference game and 2-3 additional teams who are able to stay in the Top 25 with one less loss.  Voters don't care, CFP committee doesn't care, and PAC-12 presidents didn't care enough to do anything about it.  It's as predictable as it painful to know Gus Johnson is calling all our games next year.

On 11/26/2023 at 3:14 PM, mikethehiker said:

Maybe points per drive would be a good metric?

Well, I put in the work and might as well post it.  Not the outcome I expected but razor thin nonetheless. 

 

Ground rules:

-Only counted drives where Nix and Daniels remained in the game.

-Drives intended to run out the clock at the end of halves and points were not awarded for defensive touchdowns.

-QBs did receive points for PATs following offensive TDs along with FGs. 

-Additionally, interceptions, QB fumbles, and TO on downs were attributed as QB responsible turnovers.

 

Bo Nix

PSU - 8 drives for 57 points

TTU - 11 drives for 31 points

HAW - 7 drives for 41 points

COL - 8 drives for 42 points, 1 INT, 1 TO Downs

STAN - 9 drives for 42 points

WAS - 11 drives for 33 points, 3 TO Downs

WSU - 10 drives for 38 points

UTA - 10 drives for 35 points, 1 RB fumble

CAL - 12 drives for 49 points, 1 INT, 1 WR fumble (Cal returned for TD)

USC - 8 drives for 36 points

ASU - 7 drives for 42 points

OSU - 8 drives for 31 points

Total - 109 drives for 477 points, 6 turnovers (2 INTs, 4 on downs)

Points per drive:  4.38

 

Jayden Daniels

FSU - 11 drives for 24 points, 1 INT, 3 TO downs

GRA - 6 drives for 42 points

MSU - 8 drives for 41 points

ARK - 9 drives for 34 points, 1 INT

Ole - 13 drives for 49 points, 1 QB fumble, 1 TO downs

MIZ - 11 drives for 42 points

AUB - 10 drives for 48 points, 1 INT

Army - 7 drives for 38 points

ALA - 8 drives for 28 points, 1 INT, 1 TO downs

FLA - 11 drives for 52 points, 2 TO downs

GST - 8 drives for 56 points

TAM - 9 drives for 42 points

Total - 111 drives for 496 points, 11 turnovers (4 INTs, 7 TO on downs)

Points per drive: 4.47

 

This is unbelievably close and at these rates JD scores 9 additional points over 100 drives.  JD played the entire game again Georgia State and scored a TD on every drive.  For Nix, the Washington game really hurt (3.0 ppd) mostly due to the 3 turnover on downs which is half of Nix's turnovers for the year.  Hopefully, Nix and the Ducks get redemption on Friday and Nix vaults to the top of every Heisman ballot.

Agreed.  I think the CFP committee had been making it very clear up until now that Oregon has a path should they win out.  Still I would love to see Texas, Alabama, and Florida St. all lose.  If that happens, #4 seed is between Ohio St. and Washington which could depend on how close Friday's game is.

 

First things first.  OBD must upend a perfect Washington season that has them feeling entitled to as much destiny as we do.  Did anyone else see the 9.5 line Vegas has favored OBD by?  That has to be a SHOCK to the leg lifters.

Maybe points per drive would be a good metric?

 

I’m still blown away that Bo Nix and the Ducks have the #1 total passing yards in college football this year. A stunning accomplishment given QB talent across the board in a traditional run first offense!

I wonder if Utah and USC or UCLA might still be ranked with one less conference game.
 

We need to beat Washington convincingly because I’m worried about a close Ohio St or close Georgia loss. Florida St. and Texas losing would certainly help Oregon’s case.