On 6/26/2024 at 8:57 AM, Charles Fischer said:

Oh Mike...  First of all for those who do not know--Mike and I are friends who are not bashful about sharing our thoughts with each other, and this time it is on the forum, and not on the phone.

 

Second....I no longer have much patience for the "Chicken-Little" pronouncements that used to gush from this site, and still pop up on occasion like Mike's post. Why?  Because these dreadful "predictions" have no basis in fact, and are just that person's WAG on the situation of which is also throwing cold water on everyone else who may want to enjoy an epic season coming up.

 

I've heard all this before....TONS of people wringing their hands here and gnashing their teeth over, "how NIL and the portal will destroy college football."  

 

 

Not for Oregon; in fact Our Beloved Ducks have killed-the-portal with Dan Lanning unlike anything we could have ever imagined.  In fact...where would this team be without all the portal transfers?  Would we be a 'Natty contender without the NIL and portal?  This is one example of how the gloom-and-doomers were completely WRONG, and how things turned pretty well for Oregon.

 

Third...is the market big enough?  Who cares? What matters is that for the intense Oregon fan like I-is that we are in the thick of it, and we will flourish and do fine.  Selfish, yes, but not any different than how anyone else would react.  I cannot change the market forces making these changes, thus no need to be a negative-Nellie to everyone else when I have no idea how things will actually play-out later.

 

If you are right and the market is not there?  Then the next media contract will reflect that, and everyone will have to adjust. Sometimes traditions are broken due to societal trends, and those currents cannot be stopped.  Other times it was a faulty model that existed for years, and finally ran its course.

 

Nobody likes all the changes, but we need to embrace it, for we will still get to enjoy watching Oregon Football in the future.  Let's see how it actually shakes out before declaring the worst?

 

 

Preach!

 

Couldn’t agree more and I’m not even sucking up 😆 

 

People are just guessing on so many topics, but bottom line, this evolution is exactly what was needed to give “upstarts” like OBD a real shot.
 

No matter what forces shape the next 10 years, the Georgia’s of the college football world will still be there, and hopefully, so will OBD. Once we there, we ain’t leaving.

In fairness (as if they deserve fairness) it is still early…we just picked up one DB and shot up 16 spots 😆 

Fun article!

 

For me, my "love" of CU, ASU, etc. dies with the conference. My conference love has always revolved around how it helps OBD. More macro than anything...I want OBD to win the best conference, but really couldn't care less about the actual individual success of the other members. So you can bet I'll be rooting for all B1G teams to kill it out of conference this year.

 

Good example. I'll be rooting for Utah or Arizona to take the B12 this year, but again, to reflect well on us. Once we clear 2024, if Utah/Arizona go 3-9 in 2025 I really won't care or feel a shred of nostalgia.

On 6/24/2024 at 9:34 AM, Charles Fischer said:

OK....this is going to take some getting used to, as being in the B1G is an adjustment.  

 

I was jolted a little to see the B1G logo on the court...

 

 

B1G was actually the first thing I looked for! I also went to a local Duck Store yesterday to see if there was any new gear with the B1G logo, can’t get it soon enough 😉 

 

I really like the court design, very sharp. There is a chance the trees will look too busy for me after a while though.

New territory and unanticipated consequences. This is what happens when you “rush” into something. I say “rush” because they could have been planning the mechanics of this for 5+ years, but clearly they were not.
 

There isn’t another North American sport that has pre-championship playoff games (I consider the Final 4 a singular event) at true neutral sites that have capacities of 50,000+, probably with good reason. For football fans, bowl games were the end of the road and a way to take a family vacation someplace nice.
 

Most families don’t take two vacations in a row, so they need to ditch anything related to “bowl thinking”, it won’t work. Really reminds me of how half-baked the old playoff was with the bowl rotation nonsense. We’re giving up traditions left and right, time to let this one go.

On 6/21/2024 at 2:28 PM, David Marsh said:

Five Star status is based on their rating score. 

 

On 247 sports they gave Dallas Wilson an Oregon commit a score of 94. They makes him a four star. 247 and On3 both have composite rankings that average out. By the composite he's a five star.

 

After players are all given a rating then they're given a ranking by well... Ranking their ratings. 

 

There are thresholds as to what makes a five star player. 

 

Theoretically you could have a class without any five star recruits. 

 

A high four star can be just as good as a five star it's just where they place a cutoff. 

 

There are also position groups that are notoriously hard to judge and put proper rankings to. Quarterback and linebacker being two of the hardest positions to truly rank because there is such a mental and leadership component to them. 

 

It doesn't matter how far and accurate a quarterback can throw the ball if they can't get the play call, line their guys up, and adjust and read opposing defenses. 

 

I love the idea of landing a bunch of five stars but I'm also fine with a class that is composed almost exclusively if four stars. 

Thanks for the info. Thats a solid explanation.
 

So is it just coincidence that there are always 25-30 5 stars? Never 40, or just 10?

 

 

On 6/20/2024 at 5:40 PM, David Marsh said:

5 star status is about their physical ability not their mental. 

 

Justin Flowe was a 5 star and he is a physical beast. 

 

But he just doesn't seem to have the mind for the game and was constantly out played and out of position. 

By knucklehead I was meaning “busts”, more than intelligence. Bad word choice.

That being said, I always thought stars were a reflection of the pecking order of the current class? 5 star = top 30, etc.

 

BTW the fact this is a relative and not absolute ranking also diminishes the value of being 5 star imo. Is getting a low end 5 star in a below average class really a “5 star”?

 

If the system is based purely on the physical specs of a 16-17 year old, then being a 5 star versus a 4 is greatly overrated imo. Motor, drive, intelligence…somewhat important 😆

 

So I’ll go full circle to the original question, and like my original answer. With the portal, we don’t really need more 5 stars out of HS. I get excited when it happens, absolutely. But a roster with more 4 star dudes out of HS, up front on D and at WR will get us there.

 

 

Are the old SWC or BIG8 naming rights available? We could start a collective to buy the rights and “form a league”.

The high school evaluation game is dubious. Seen too many knuckleheads get 5 stars, especially the last 5 years or so.
 

I appreciate the sentiment, but we’ve really only lacked in two areas in recent history IMO. The trenches on D, and WR. Getting some of the best and more depth in those two areas, no matter how many stars, is what will push us to the next level.

Additionally, what does it mean if we go win the B1G and Utah wins the B12, in year one? It’s saying something, not sure what, but it is something. Maybe Cal will win the ACC as well 😂 

Why would you do anything that highlighted you’re in shambles? Having a league that can only retain 2 members probably isn’t something you want to take pride in when trying to con some new members to join up.

On 6/19/2024 at 11:04 AM, Duckley Palace said:

When has Oregon State been a major football program? One BCS bowl win, 0 conference championships. 2 top 25 finishes. Playing in a 40,000 capacity stadium with high school amenities(before this past year). One first round draft pick.

 

They've been below programs like Boise, Fresno, and SDSU. Just like Washington State tbh. They were propped up by Oregon for years. If they had even contributed a little bit, they would still be propped up. But the PAC Twelve was run like a country club on a country bumpkin revenue stream.

Beavis did win the 1942 Rose bowl, which was played in Durham NC due to uh, Pearl Harbor. The only Rose victory between the PIG2 was held on the east coast when everyone was signing up to join the military, but hey, they’re power teams.

 

 

😆

Market something that doesn’t exist that you retained the rights to.
 

Hello Napster! What up MySpace?

Will be curious to see how good the B1G really is.
 

Historically it seems like their depth hasn’t been as good as the P12 in any given year, but their top/big 3 has been consistently the same programs always elevated to the top 10, and generally worthy of that ranking. Thanks to USC not doing their part, the P12 has had a pretty inconsistent top 3, but a top 2-3 has alway emerged that was pretty legitimate and underrated due to USC failing as poster child for the conference. The conference failed because USC sucked, full-stop.

 

Thats a long way of saying, I think this transition adds a couple of big boy games for everyone involved, them included. The rest of the schedule isn’t going to be anything that shocks the system.
 

Going undefeated is difficult no matter how good you are, I’m predicting 11-1, same as I would have predicted if the P12 still existed!

I have to assume those B12 games on our schedule were scheduled prior to joining the B1G and we’re doing everything we can to cancel them?

On 6/18/2024 at 11:36 AM, Jon Joseph said:

Yes, it looks like a ranking of NFL and not college teams. I don't pay the $10 a month to subscribe to PFF. It would be interesting to see PFF's recently released CFB SOS but the ranking is behind a paywall. 

Their win total for UW specifically probably has the greatest chance to be accurate, but to think they’d be top-10 at 8-4 is just nuts. 

On 6/18/2024 at 11:27 AM, Jon Joseph said:

PFF top 10 win totals for 2024 taking into consideration SOS.

 

College football power rankings have Georgia, Texas at No. 1 & No. 2

LONGHORNSWIRE.USATODAY.COM

---

PFF ranked teams in FBS 1-131, where does Texas land?

 

That’s actually hilarious on multiple levels.
 

First of all, that top 10? Second, that’s a lot of top 10 with 8-9 wins. I’m confident that isn’t how it will turn out.

Fun thoughts and story. It’s interesting to watch reality catch up with history.
 

A few examples:

State of Indiana has 3 “power teams” with a population 6.8m. Oklahoma has 4.0m population. Nebraska has been eating a reality sandwich for a while now.

There are a lot of schools out there where homegrown is going to get you 5-7.

I can’t believe how much credit UW is getting in some corners, they’ll be lucky to hit 7-5. For some context, they’re rated just ahead of Colorado for national title odds.
 

Caesars has their over/under at 7 even.

 

Their roster was gutted, they lost their coach, and their final class rating (portal included) to replace that talent landed #30, between Purdue and Michigan State…and that ranking was pumped up from signing 32 3 stars.

On 6/17/2024 at 11:35 AM, Jon Joseph said:

Every Game Matters? Don't ask an FSU fan. Spot on, no 13-0 P4 conference champion will be left behind. But will a 4-loss conference champion be in and seeded in the top 4?

 

The Ducks are -1, vs. Ohio State.  

 

Would Oregon be better off going 10-2 and playing in the conference champ game with the Committee possibly looking at a 10-3 finish, or finishing 10-2 with an excellent SOS without traveling to Indianapolis to play for the B1G title? With the new Playoff format, playing in the conference champ game could be a curse as much as a blessing. Will the Committee decide that 10-3 Texas lost twice to Georgia so there is no reason to allow a 3-loss SEC conference runner-up to be in the field? 

 

The final Committee vote and the seeding with the ACC and B12 champs in the top 4 and earning a 1st-round bye will cause a run on Pepto Bismal. 

ND is part of the long play here, I believe they can never get a bye?

 

But yeah, conference championship should get you in, not an auto-bye. If a P2 runner up is like 13-1 and has to go play a fresh 9-4 KSU, there could be some alterations down the road 😆 

I would never predict any team to go undefeated. UW should have lost to ASU at home last year, the same team we beat without breaking a sweat on the road. Going undefeated is a huge accomplishment but also takes luck.

Isn’t this impossible to know? Have to think there will be some portal churn of 4 star guys that leave because of playing time. Could be 5, could be 25.

Yeah I think it’s ridiculous how many years they’re handing out lately, but be consistent…Dante’s request is middle of the road these days

Never too early!

 

I think our number is actually set at 10.5, which is exactly where it should be.

 

I’d take the over at 11-1. Between tOSU, UM, and Wisconsin, 2-1 would be a good accomplishment. Going 1-2 with that group would be disappointing but not shocking at all. That or some other random loss, 10-2 doesn’t stretch the imagination at all.
 

Frankly, I’d put UW on par with Boise State at this point, especially since we play them early and UW late when their depth will be tested. 

More bluster.

 

Beavis’ upcoming budget is making the media rounds and they seem to be very proud that they still have a big boy budget for FY25.

 

Awesome! Money well spent! Thank goodness the state threw them an extra $10M!

 

Rosters are all cratered, coaches leaving, signed a sweet deal with CW, can only make expanded playoff by going 12-0, still playing G5 schedules in all sports….but, but, other conferences will take note that they have a low end P4 budget for FY25 and magic will happen.