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Mike West
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Posts posted by Mike West
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On 2/14/2022 at 9:46 AM, cartm25 said:
Not Clemson (and not Oklahoma from a "Final 4" standpoint).
Clemson is being woefully misremembered. Clemson dominated a terrible conference while sweating through some close games, and losses, against Syracuse and Pitt . . . Syracuse and Pitt! "Syracuse and Pitt - the 'must-have' dominate USCs of the ACC!!"
Clemson established their credibility by DOMINATING a weak conference, and THEN, going toe-to-toe with the big-boys. They didn't wish upon themselves minefields, bear traps, landslides, killer bees, falling rocks, and quicksand along the regular season path to the CFP.
"If you can't out recruit USC . . ." - But Oregon HAS been out recruiting USC for the LAST 5 YEARS. Wishing for that to change makes no sense to me. Non-traditional powers have to rely on a bit of luck and fortune at times.
Given Oregon's reliance on CA as a West Coast recruiting hot-bed, they've been fortunate that USC has not been an attractive locale for some time now.
I agree! Winning championships will never be easy. No sense in wishing it to be harder than it already is.
Clemson went toe to toe with the big boys by Recruiting first. They dominated the conference because they were preparing for the big boys. Contrast that with Oklahoma, who has Not crushed it nationally. They dominate Texas.
USC under Carroll didn't dominate just California, they dominated Nationally. New Jersey, Texas, and yes the Southern hotbed.
Meanwhile, the second best team in the conference- OBD- got their share of elite players from guess where- CALIFORNIA.
WE DIDN'T ESTABLISH A NATIONAL FOOTPRINT.
Rip Van Wrinkle is awake. The sleeping giant sleeps no more. Not only must they win, they have to recruit effectively across the nation.
Though the majority of MC's roster consists of California players, we have young men from TWENTY TWO other states.
We are a national recruiting power. California cannot win a Natty alone. Even Pete Carroll recognized that. Ohio State, Bama, Georgia, and yes Clemson pull from outside their region because you can't get them all in the place you reside.
We get enough from California. But let's face it, they don't grow Big Boys in California like they do everywhere else. Let's see how many Bubbas get drafted from California (high school players) this April. Let's compare that with the rest of the country.
I believe you'll find We're going to have to get some corn fed young uns from all over the country.
We're fine. Nothing can stop what is coming. Both interior coaches on our staff come from the Pros. The elite kids are paying attention. The Blue Bloods know they're competing with us. The only thing stopping us now is game time performance.
Quarterback, the Battle in the Trenches, and Defense. You saw it in the Super Bowl yesterday. You saw it all throughout both the NFL playoffs and the CFP playoffs.
Did you see how Lanning disrupted a pretty lethal Bama offense? Did you see unreal throws from Stetson Bennet? Bo Nix is better. Hell make Thomson and Butterfield better. And the future elite kids are already taking about OBD.
USC's national reputation is going to draw eyeballs nationwide. We are already on the doorstep. Ding Dong. The best is yet to come.
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Champions always have to go through a tough conference. You think Ohio State had it easy? They are in the second toughest division in CFB.
Georgia boosters our status this year, after that we go back to our conference as our reference. Now think about Norte Dame. Undefeated and lame. That's us without USC. We don't have Clemson type credibility.
We didn't get Flowe and Thibs because USC was down. We got them over the super blue bloods. So USC isn't the threat they used to be.
MC was a position coach at Bama. Lanning ran the defense. Huge difference. And it clearly showed ( despite MC's stint at FIU).
Winning titles will never be as easy as ducking the emergence of a blue blood. If you can't out recruit USC, you can't out recruit Bama, Ohio State, Clemson, Georgia, or the SEC. Thus, you're done anyway.
The path of a champion will always be difficult. Embrace it. It needs character.
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On 2/13/2022 at 4:43 PM, Charles Fischer said:
Well, Joe Burrow would disagree. (He sat at Ohio State and then transferred to LSU and won a 'Natty.)
Anybody that followed Joe Burrow knew he was elite.
How many Joe Burrows are within that 3,000?
We're talking 30 football teams worth of transfer requests.
It's almost like all the people that ran out and bought toilet paper instead of food two years ago. What are these guys thinking?
Why don't we just form thirty more D1 teams so these guys face reality?
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The one thing that defines this generation of players is their absolute sense of entitlement. 3,000 players in the portal? Are you kidding me?
Last year, the defense saw so much attrition just about everyone on defense got to show their abilities. Film doesn't lie.
The smart ones will recognize they will have plenty of shots to play. Depth matters.
Not to mention one of the brightest minds will know how to utilize his talent. I hope these players aren't stupid enough to blow their shot at a title.
But what can you do? Some of these guys are as arrogant as the so called leaders of our conference ( I guess its not generational lol).
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I'm going to wait until the Spring Game before I start analyzing OBD.
I'm biased right now. UGA is the only team I see with the ability to control the game when we play.
I'll say it till the mountains crumble:. We have enough raw talent to beat everyone we play. We almost have enough talent to take it all.
And think about this: Bo Nix is a far better game manager than Stetson Bennet. So if Lanning decides to use the defense as our lethal weapon, we are in the hunt for a title right now.
Can't wait till the Spring Game.
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On 2/10/2022 at 8:25 AM, cartm25 said:
Can you clarify what you mean by "USC keeps us in the top five, six, or seven." If you mean national ranking, the Ducks didn't need USC last year to get to #3 in the country. They also didn't need USC in 2019 when they were #6, heading straight for top-5, until their ridiculous loss to ASU.
I understand how a stronger USC can help the perception of the conference as a whole. However, that disproportionally benefits the lesser teams of the league, and not teams like the Ducks that already have a national brand, reputation, and money. Any perception benefit that comes to the conference from a stronger USC is marginal for the Ducks, at best. The Ducks don't have a perception problem . . . unless we count MC single handedly erasing Oregon's "exciting offense" reputation.
We all welcome the battle because USC is coming and there's nothing that can be done about it. I'm simply providing a counter argument to what I hear often on this forum that "A strong USC is good for Oregon." I think it's net negative for the Ducks. The improved perception for the conference is a marginal benefit, at best, for the Ducks because they don't have a perception problem nationally.
What WILL have a significant impact is USC taking over CA recruiting. Go look at the Ducks' recruiting classes the last few years . . . dominated by CA recruits while USC was dormant. My fear is that the "Cali-flock" turns into the "Cali-drip". That represents a challenge/threat to the Ducks far bigger than any marginal benefit from the P12 having a slightly better national reputation as a whole. Not to mention USC now has coaching that at least matches the quality at Oregon.
Here it is in a nutshell: we are stacked with talent NOW. We are CFP material right now. If USC goes undefeated until they face Utah, we are right there too. Because we can actually beat Georgia.
Many have doubted me before, just read the comments about Auburn and Ohio State (people were mad we lost to the Tigers after saying we couldn't win, and nobody wanted Ohio State a year ago- I actually thought we'd win both).
I don't say that to brag, I just believe in my own analysis based on the talent we have. Did I mention we are stacked with talent?
Fishduck called it: great talent EMERGES immediately. What did MC do with his bowl game after assuming the helm? He face planted. So mediocrity also EMERGES early doesn't it? MC's excellence was recruiting. Lanning's excellence is game time performance.
Riley didn't win a Natty as OC. And he duplicated his predecessor as HC. Lanning has a Natty, and started building his team in his spare time. What does that tell you? It tells me we're about to start dominating the conference with or without USC.
California isn't the only state USC needs. They have to recruit and win battles against Oregon and the blue bloods. Nationally. Carroll recruited nationally. We recruit nationally. In my eyes that's even Steven.
We aren't going anywhere. We need USC. We need two more after that. And we will still be fine. Lanning hasn't proven anything yet, but I see game management like we've never seen. In our entire history.
Watch the Spring Game. Watch USC's. You'll know then. Kids are going to line up to play for Oregon. And I want USC as our nemesis.
I sure wish I had time to write again. Darren always brings reality. I love him for it. It "sharpens my iron" because I have to find the evidence. Fortunately, I've done ok. And I'm glad USC is back, because I believe we have a HC well qualified to handle USC's resurgence.
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On 2/8/2022 at 5:48 AM, cartm25 said:
Offense wins championships now.
@Darren Perkins thank you for discussing this topic and mentioning how USC becomes a BIG hurdle for Oregon success. I’ve yet to hear an argument that convinces me that a powerful USC is good for the Ducks . . . it’s just not.
As long as we're MC strong, USC is a huge threat. If DL is as good a HC as he is a DC, then USC keeps us in the top five, six or seven.
No need to dread an elite team. After all, MC gave us boatloads of talent. Now we're a serious threat to USC, unlike the Pete Carroll years when we were just a nuisancep(albeit the second best team in the conference).
The conference needs four serious threats, as in Pete Carroll and Chris Peterson type teams. Otherwise, the conference of champions will remain the same legend in their own heads forever.
I welcome the battle. All winners do. Winners play the best to show they are the best. We've already dropped Ohio State in a "down year". Without two of our best defensive players. With a "marginal" QB. What's there to fret about? The best is yet to come.
If you can't believe that, might as well stay home. You're done before you start.
Bring back those elite Trojans. We're ready. Georgia will tell us how far we've come. Much like Auburn did in 2019. I see good things coming soon.
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On 2/8/2022 at 11:11 AM, Duck1984 said:
I will join the under for a beer and a brat, and I will spot Mike the Spring game as a win.
You're on!!!!
Can't wait till next December ( especially for OBD).
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On 2/4/2022 at 5:08 PM, Drake said:
The problem with Cristobal’s offense is that it needs an NFL caliber QB to stay on the field.
First of all, I'm glad MC is gone. In my opinion that was his best move because he was going to lose his reputation in 2022 had he stayed.
As far as the QB, he got ten wins out of a guy that did not have NFL caliber skills. Had he not soured the team late, my thought is they would have defeated Utah at least once (the team clearly quit on him, and I suspect they knew he was leaving).
The ACC mirrors the PAC12. He inherited a very good QB, so I suspect the Canes are going to win at least ten games.
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It is truly unfortunate injuries ruined three separate title runs (Dixon's, Mariota's and Herbert's 2017 campaign).
All three offenses we're unstoppable. Ironically, Chip's offense lit college football on fire, without the kind of stars those three units possessed.
Herbert's 2017 unit didn't face the kind of competition the other two units encountered, which may explain that fifty plus average when he was healthy.
This is a tough call. My favorite was also Slick's because there were so many schemes to defend. Chip's was the most exciting to watch. Dixon was magic on wheels, and our favorite QB was completely in his element.
It's hard to separate my feelings of watching our one and only undefeated campaign en route to our first Natty appearance. It was such a spectacular season, and the surreal nature of recognizing we were really the best team in college football will always give me goosebumps (yes, controversy robbed us of our title no matter what the eye test showed everyone- Can Newton barely survived our onslaught, and got three mulligans to boot- they lose if the refs didn't shield the Tigers from reality).
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Cal, Stanford and UCLA are not interested in putting a group of world class athletes on the field. They want student athletes. Not a bad priority, but it's truly bad for "business".
Twenty five percent of the conference is "attacking" the quality of the most important revenue stream for athletics as a whole at their respective schools. Not to mention it has reduced athletic competition within the conference.
Washington is a World Class University. Outside of their choices for coaches post Don James (excluding Chris Petersen), the Fuskies are willing to put a respectable football brand on the field. In fact, they expect championship level football.
It is going to be very difficult to restore the level of football the conference witnessed when half the conference produced national contenders ( right before USC dominated the entire college football landscape). It's simply not a priority.
It's almost putting the horse before the cart at this point. When Mountain West teams regularly defeat us, we have a problem. It isn't even difficult to out recruit teams in the conference given the present circumstances.
In boxing terms, our legs are wobbly. I sure hope Chip works some magic ( he just needs to find a QB that can win games, so he can outscore his shaky defenses), and the Fuskies actually right their ship. We need four powerhouse teams.
Cal and Stanford can produce the first hyperspace drive all they want if we find four powerful football teams. Otherwise, nobody is going to watch PAC12 football in my opinion.
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On 1/29/2022 at 12:49 PM, Viking Duck said:
I agree it's a great move and a positive sign.
Although I think the last comment was a bit of tongue in cheek, I disagree. I envision Wilcox turning into the next Kyle Whittingham, and considering how badly Utah kicked OBD's tail feathers last year, I don't think it's an unreasonable suggestion to hire him.
I know I'm bucking the trend on this forum to say it, but given the resources a coach has to work with at UO, I'd take an upcoming Whittingham who will stick around rather than jumping in a few years, which I'm sure Lanning will do if he leads us to success. But that's just my preference
Maybe we take Wilcox at that point. See if he's interested once he " EMERGES".
He did show flashes when the Golden Bears had decent talent (and he is truly handicapped by the university when it comes to getting athlete-students ).
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I can't let go of the feeling this conference doesn't matter anymore.
I get the feeling the presidents of this conference want to ruin football and basketball.
I can't prove it, but I completely suspect it. Athletics do not matter to these people in my opinion.
Inaction is action. So it's reaction rather than proactive steps. What have these presidents really done the last three years? Nothing.
That's why I feel the way I feel.
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On 1/23/2022 at 11:04 AM, 30Duck said:
The Rams will take out the Bucs, and the Bills eliminate the Chiefs.
My call as well.
Rams win round three to face the Bills.
Bills cover minus forty five points and Rams cover minus three.
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On 1/22/2022 at 10:10 AM, Jon Joseph said:
The man took his team to the playoffs. The man produced Heisman winners. I'm not prepared to sell him and his team anywhere near as short as I read in many of these comments. He gets Caleb Williams and SC will be a contender for the south title in 2022.
Exactly.
He is already a proven product. He replaced his very heralded starting QB mid season, showing he is about winning now.
The Trojans might need help in the interior offensive line, but their talent elsewhere is very good. That offensive will be explosive, which allows the defense to make mistakes.
USC is relevant. Now. The second coming of Pete Carroll? No. But kids are thinking about USC again.
I hope Oregon fans are excited about this. An undefeated Oregon versus an undefeated USC is a guaranteed playoff berth next year.... Maybe two.
First things first though. We need to go undefeated. That settles all issues. Especially with the schedule we have( I know you hate our 2022 schedule my friend, but I love it because it focused the mind on reality. You must be your best to beat the best and nothing like playing the best gets your best from day one).
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On 1/17/2022 at 12:25 PM, Tandaian said:
CFB 4/125 make the playoffs 3.2%
12 would still leave the percentage of teams under 10%, I guess 12 isn't really all that many.
This isn't going to be popular, but here's my take:
For all intensive purposes, November is the start of the playoffs. Eight to Ten teams are fighting for those four spots, so it already is a "thirty two to sixty four team field" since the month runs four weeks.
The conference title games act as the quarterfinals per se. AND EVERYBODY PAYS ATTENTION TO COLLEGE FOOTBALL ALL MONTH.
Now teams like Wake Forest have to go undefeated mostly. But let's be real, expansion allows them to be mediocre and reach the playoffs. Then get dissected on national TV instead of the ACC channel all year.
If Wake Forest is worthy now, they have to go undefeated, which is difficult even with a lame schedule ( just and Norte Dame).
The best argument for expansion is the players stay for games that matter.
Frankly, watching Cincinnati lose to the weakest number one seed in years was irritating. I did make a small fortune though
(another reason for expansion perhaps).
The only other argument I see is your team can lose four games and still have the priceless shot of getting annihilated in the playoffs ( let's be real here, Cincinnati exposed there will be no Cinderella in football, because the money schools are going to hog the talent).
College Football is going to mimic Major League Baseball if they don't regulate NIL effectively.
Where is Obi Wan Kenobi when you need him?
I do like four to eight teams though. Unless they really put the best twelve in the tournament. Fairness doesn't equal excellence after all.
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On 1/17/2022 at 10:49 AM, DUCKBILL said:
I want to thank all contributors on this topic. For me, this is one of the best discussions ever presented on the OBD forum. When it comes to the financial analysis of college football, I know of no one that does a more thorough job than Jon Joseph. It appears the NIL is the Pandora Box that's been opened. I see no possibility of college football being amateur again.
We are now going to see the rich leagues dominating college football (if they are not already doing this) in the future. Super leagues will become the future. As I have stated before, Oregon, Cal, UCLA, Washington, OSU, Stanford and other possibilities should form their own "Ivy League". I have no interest in Oregon joining the professional football universities and their super leagues. I am going to open a great Oregon Pinot Noir and try not to think about this any more..
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Once again, don't you think they're already there?
They promote Olympics Sports as their claim to excellence, they promote academics over athletic prowess in the revenue sports, and show little interest in garnering a television deal that will fund their respective Athletic Departments.
They're going to have Ivy League talent within ten years if they keep this up. The middle tier schools are regularly losing to G5 programs already. It won't be long before Mountain West schools start snatching PAC12 talent for themselves.
If you truly want Ivy League West, I'm afraid you won't have to wait long. You're seeing it play out before your very eyes.
Be careful what you wish for... Unless you really want Ivy League talent to go with Ivy League academic quality.
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On 1/11/2022 at 1:03 PM, Desert Duck said:
Given NIL, CFB free agency, and essentially no scholarship limitations, in my humble opinion, CFB is now effectively the NFL-L… aka. NFL-Lite
I was just thinking this morning that it now makes sense to limit scholarships.
It will be more expensive to field an elite team in CFB very soon if teams try to match A&M. I see a shakeout occurring.
The smart schools will tie loyalty, grades and graduation to their NIL deals. $25-$35 million still doesn't guarantee A&M hoists a trophy. That literally is one third the NFL salary cap ( for just those 20-25 players).
If hate to be a parent of these kids. Most won't value the scholarship. Of course, STEM degrees matter the most, but most players don't invest the time to earn those types of degrees.
I didn't listen to my very wise father (I proved his concern was misled, but I snubbed good advice nonetheless). That was for school only. Imagine hundreds of thousands of dollars at stake and you're trying to tell your kids that might not be the best route.
We need to go back to baking and cooking. The microwave oven needs to go ( and on demand entertainment).
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On 1/12/2022 at 6:36 PM, willville said:
Azz needed to go. Justin Frye to Ohio State is a loss. Excellent recruiter and OL coach. Chip is the OC. Chip likely re-ups. DTR does not stay for his super senior year unless Kelly is staying. They are really tight. Anything could happen but it looks like Chip will get a new deal. Press is making things look horrible at UCLA. They have landed some nice players through the portal with more on the way.
DTR is a downgrade in my mind. He should be much better and has plateaued far too much. He's a liability to their chances... Can't win games for the Bruins against the best.
We'll see if UCLA is smart enough to keep Chip
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On 1/12/2022 at 7:13 PM, David Marsh said:
Stanford has been hit the hardest of anyone by the transfer portal. They only lose talent to it and never pick any up.
Their academic requirements require players to be abel to enroll by their grades alone. Follow up with no guarantee that they can take a master's program as they ha r to apply and be accepted on their non football merits.
That in itself shuts down any grad transfers and any one else who may be interested if they don't have their grades high enough.
The result is they lose talent to the portal but can't really gain any talent from it.
Oh the mighty Ivy League West!!!!!
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Quick question Darren: was it too unrealistic to expect an undefeated season after the victory in Columbus?
The talent was there. We saw what happened in the Alamo Bowl. The was some extremely bad decision-making this year in my opinion.
Moving forward, is there any shot at another September surprise in your opinion? Do we have enough defense to keep the game close? I see SO Much talent in that side of the ball.
Can't wait till the Spring Game!
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On 1/9/2022 at 10:03 AM, DUCKBILL said:
My future wish for Oregon. Develop a league that is based on academic quality. Off the top of my head this would include UCLA, STANFORD, CAL, OREGON, OREGON STATE, WASHINGTON. UCLA, STANFORD, CAL AND WASHINGTON are among the highest rated universities in the world. Hopefully with Knights gifts to the academic side, Oregon will get on this elite list in the future.
GO DUCKS!!
I believe we have that already... The PAC12. And the conference promotes its prowess on Olympic Sports to boot. I don't think that's working out to well.
In fact, I believe the Olympic Sports are in jeopardy from that very strategy. Should we jump into the fray? Depends on if we really believe the Ivy League model will pan out and produce enough revenue to support all the sports the conference values.
I believe we discussed the impact NIL is having yesterday, from none other than Saint Nick himself. Now I happen to believe Nick Saban will thrive no matter what.
It seems Saban is far more concerned about recent trends because it definitely will leave dozens of schools behind ( and their Athletic Departments as well).
Now it makes sense to me to expand the playoffs. I'm not sure that will stem the tide because I personally believe there are only twenty to thirty schools capable of producing quality football at this point in time.
It was clear to most NIL was going to ruin the college game. But I believe astronomic coaching salaries was the beginning of the end.
Programs looking at this like academics is going to save the game ( more like the status quo )aren't realistic in my opinion.
Look at Stanford, Cal and UCLA for instance. The more academic they go, the less competitive they've been. Combine that with this new arms race. I doubt Harvard will even compete with Army anytime soon. That's about what UCLA v. Oregon looks like present day.
I dread the thought the Conference of Champions doubling down on their current path. Forget about G5 status. I'm thinking practically high school versus P5. Cal is practically dead on arrival as we speak already.
Who knows, maybe it's best to let the schools that want NFL "light" go their own way. The question then becomes whether FOX, CBS and ESPN will sponsor the remnants of this fiasco.
One last thought: If we balk at this emerging scene, will Television executives leave the present system behind ( if we don't go to games, why would they televise them)? Talk about being stuck in a present scenario we don't want... Answers are going to be hard to come by going forward.
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Did anyone REALLY think Nick Saban isn't going to adjust, then out that dagger in again to ask these guys? A&M hasn't come close to a division title, despite their HC also winning a national title.
I do like the idea of the player staying with the team he signed with. But it sure exposes just how much student athlete has disappeared from the game. I love what Kansas did with their walk on hero... They gave him an NIL deal the week after his famous TD. I also like what AB did for his teammates. That does true leadership in my opinion.
Teams and ADs that come up with ideas like that are going to keep their players happy.
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On 1/7/2022 at 12:26 PM, Jon Joseph said:
All in all playing 36% of your OOC schedule vs Power 5 teams and one-third of your schedule against teams ranked in the PCs Top 25, is as tough as it gets in Power 5 OOC scheduling. Than as noted above, add on 9 conference games.
Does this make sense for a conference that is 2 for a Playoff 8?
Overall, yes it's a huge risk. But if you can't beat these teams then you don't deserve to be in the playoffs.
OBD have been insane schedulers. High risk, high reward. And as Herm Edwards famously stated " you play to win the game".
Who honestly thought we'd even hold a lead on Auburn, beat Utah for MC's first conference title, or.... wait.... Beat the Buckeyes in the Horseshoe?
That was with a coach packing a scud missile for an offense. Can you see the possibilities now?
Fear not!
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Oregon’s Pass Rush Situation in 2022
in Our Beloved Ducks
Posted
Which was on display yesterday in the Super Bowl. The Rams schemed to pressure "Mr. Home Alone" very well yesterday in the second half.
Lanning disrupted Bruce Young's rhythm much the same in the Natty. Our boys on defense even commented on Twitter.
We don't have Thibs anymore, so we'll need multiple schemes. Seal the edge, stop the run. Spring the edge, pressure up the middle. I see that coming. Can't wait until spring.