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CalBear95
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Posts posted by CalBear95
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On 12/6/2021 at 10:47 AM, Charles Fischer said:
Do we value loyalty and get nine win seasons, or do we want MORE and attempt to return to the 'Natty? I do not believe Wilcox has the recruiting chops to take us there, and his Cal roster proves it.
THIS.
I get it folks, I really do. Twice burned. I would be shocked if there weren't a strong pull to have a guarantee (as much as that is possible in this business) you won't be again. And indulging that instinct will get you killed (metaphorically speaking). It is panicked overreation.
After 2 years of the 'he'll never leave us' saftey blanket soothes the pain of today, the 'why are we stuck in mediocrity when...' voices will kick back in. As they should.
There is a reason Wilcox was never in consideration for an open role this time around and it isn't because he's a 'diamond in the rough' all of these foolish programs can't see. He isn't Russell Wilson with a third round pick. He's Garder Minshew: a feel good story with some flashes of talent but who will never likely be more than a valuable back up.
I know you all love the man for what he did for you back in the Gang Green days but let those memories stay where they belong. In the fond and rose colored storied yarn of Oregon's ascent from also-ran in this great conference of ours.
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On 12/5/2021 at 6:52 PM, Charles Fischer said:
But the coaches are not the only "evil" ones operating out of self-interest; the players will leave in a heartbeat via the portal, as will verbal recruits fade away. Players are just as fickle...no halos here!
I hear your point and largely agree with one minor edit. Let's say I were to characterize 'self-interest' as 'mercenary.' That is probably too strong a characterization to your theme but I don't view it as really that far off either.
While we all may want to self-reflect and check our 'self-righteousness' at the door - if I might couch it as such, I give a blanket exemption to the players on this action. The players are the product and are exploited mercilessly while the system is awash in obscene amounts of money [NIL begins to rectify this asymmetry but we're a ways away from even getting close to balance].
So, if the transfer portal is how they get some modicum of that value back, I wish them nothing but the best.
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On 12/5/2021 at 7:09 PM, Haywarduck said:
What I have been afraid of for a while with the Oregon program is an elitist attitude to become predominant. Oregon isn't an elitist program never was, never should become that way.
I can appreciate that concern but I see a difference between wanting to raise the bar on a hire versus a view that would be consistent with some perception of superiority stemming from arrogance a la many among Ivy League grads who probably got in on the strength of being a legacy.
I'm am not turning my nose up at Wilcox because he doesn't have some pedigree or whatever. He's simply way too much of a stretch for a program that has no reason to take that level of risk.
Winning with class and in a highly ethical manner is min bar. On this I think we can all agree. But an elite coach or a coach who is good and can become elite aren't in contrast with this core principal. Wanting somebody who is really good at their job isn't mutually exclusive with finding someone who fits in with Oregon's historic and present culture and values.
I hear your point as suggesting or perhaps outright saying they are which I hope isn't the case.
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On 12/5/2021 at 6:05 PM, Haywarduck said:
That isn't the argument, but nice attempt to frame it that way, and not the way it should be played.
But it is isn't it?
Maybe not overtly and certainly not the whole argument as there has to be something other than that. But it's there for sure.
I hope this point doesn't read as either judgmental or dismissive. I think we all want the best outcome and I have nothing but respect and belief that drives your passion on this issue. I just think the aversion for this 'just following my heart' scenario is - understandably - leading to an over rotation and subsequent interest in a coach who would otherwise never hit Mullens' radar any day of the week.
Again, my POV. If others also think I am way off/making a straw man argument, open to feedback.
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On 12/5/2021 at 5:15 PM, Graziani93 said:
You keep saying in your posts that Petersen has "lost his fire" and is "done". Link the source or provide a quote. This just sounds like your opinion, which you're entitled to, but you have no back up for it.
Here is one article that may not prove he's 100% out but, I think, it answers the thrust of your question: https://footballscoop.com/news/the-parable-that-told-chris-petersen-he-was-right-to-walk-away
I'll go back to my question: but for his status as an alum, can any people advocating for him to take the reins at Oregon provide a data driven view he should be in the top 3-5 candidates considered?
I get the 'infectious passion' argument. But passion doesn't a coach make just as being an awesome recruiter doesn't either.
There has not been a coach since Tedford that has succeeded at Cal so I am not insensitive to Wilcox's challenges (the typically Berkeley's gonna Berkeley response to just about anything)
But why take the risk? 'At least he won't abandon us like the last two coaches?' That's playing off your back foot. I'm not Mullens so nobody has to justify their perspective on this to me or anyone else for that matter. But I just don't get the argument
Jonathan Smith has OSU on the rise because he is a really good coach.
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@HaywarduckYour perspective assumes each coach took over comparable situations. They did not. Wilcox inherited Sonny Dykes' talent which was not that bad. They could not play D which was a large part of what drove Wilcox's hiring. He has since completely strangled Cal's offense. Also, he recruits in California for a major university. That is by no means a wash with OSU's fan support. In fact, it's a materially differentiated advantage.
If you switched roles, I wager Smith would be far outpacing Wilcox.
Wilcox simply hasn't proven he can coach at a high level. There is no bias in his being ex-Oregon. The bias is completely the other direction.
Simple thought exercise to help remove confirmation bias: if Wilcox had not played at Oregon, how many here would be advocating Mullens poach him from Cal? Almost certainly none. And for good reason.
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On 12/5/2021 at 4:30 PM, Warrenton said:
Notre Dame hasn't done anything in over 30 years and is an Under Armor school. No top coach wants that.
Notre Dame was in the Playoffs in 2018 and 2020. While they got hammered (and for the record, I think ND is overrated most years and coasts on being a blue blood brand and a media desire to see them as a top 6 team no matter what) not many teams can say that. They also recruit really well.
If that is the "nothing" in the Duck's future, that would likely be a fate many here would take.
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On 12/5/2021 at 3:50 PM, Warrenton said:
Oregon has the talent we shouldn't be stuck in the Alamo Toilet Bowl.
This a little unfair. The Pac12 bowl options really fall off after the Rose because most of the other premier bowls are tied with east coast and midwest conferences. In this and other ways (e.g., time zone) the P12 has always been at a bit of a disadvantage.
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On 12/5/2021 at 4:19 PM, Warrenton said:
Oregon's a better job than Notre Dame.
OK, I know I just wrote a post admonishing those who are aiming too low for the reality of where the program is today and can easily be but this may be a wee bit too much in the other direction.
Love the passion and pride though. Better this than the alternative (I grew up a UCLA BB fan as my dad was a Physics professor and Applied Mathematician there. That fan base has zero issue of keeping their expectations where they should be despite all of the east coast haters...and now they are back where they should be).
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On 12/5/2021 at 3:36 PM, Graziani93 said:
Wilcox, Peterson, even today's Chip will be vast improvements in the coaching-up of players
Petersoe lost his fire and is, by his own admission, done. This is mentioned many times but it seems to be a recurring theme among many posts.
Chip's day has come and gone. He can't beat the SEC teams and the game has caught up to him. Innovative guy but no longer the disrupter he once was.
Hiring Wilcox is a move that feels like an overreaction to the 'I want to go home to X' issue. "I know, we hire our own 'home is here' guy." Wilcox is a middle of the road coach. He very likely isn't as bad as his record at Cal but he has zero business even being in the consideration set for Oregon.
Maybe I just see things differently because I am not a Duck alum. Oregon is a premier destination and should and can demand an elite coach.
You know who is a much better coach than Justin Wilcox? Jonathan Smith. That guy can flat out coach and is dealing with probably less than Wilcox.
To quote my wife, I say this because I care about you: you are letting sentimentality and a bit of an irrational inferiority complex (with a bit of not wanting to have your heart ripped out yet again and see the program continually suffer this way) push you to shoot far below your level.
You guys are a top 15/20 program. Believe in that and demand the best not retreads, burnouts or nostalgia.
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Also, when the east coast pundits start talking about the C level targets the Ducks should target for 'reasons' I am going to be in a huff. In their minds Oregon = an MSU or Iowa State.
Not that I should be in a kerfuffle because it is just the way that bias works and it is a waste of emotional energy. But sometimes knowing a thing is different than being able to do that thing.
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I'd call Dave Aranda right now. Maybe he is staying at Baylor but he has not yet signed an agreement and he has a lot of west coast ties.
I''m glad it is finally over but I also feel some sadness and definite anger. Oregon is just getting shafted over and over again.
Regardless of who they hire next, this guts the Ducks in the upcoming signing period and sets the program back yet again. This program is far too good, its facilities so superior, its commitment to the team's success so total, and its resources so seemingly endless that this repeated outcome feels both totally unwarranted as well as baffling.
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On 12/5/2021 at 12:44 PM, Jon Joseph said:
Man has competed and defeated Oregon
That logic also suggests Oregon should go hard after David Shaw who's only skills seem to be beating Oregon and embarrassing the P12 on the national stage.
It also brings Grinch into play.
Point is, some teams play others better than others. Yes, Cal hasn't provided all the support Wilcox could use but his QBs are always terrible. And as we've seen, that really hobbles an offense and in turn wastes a defense.
Who knows? I just think the Ducks would be hiring below the reality of the quality of their program.
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On 12/5/2021 at 12:38 PM, 1Ducker1 said:
DeRuyter?
That's a fair point. What are odds MC is even at the mic?
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On 12/5/2021 at 12:34 PM, KingT said:
Alamo Bowl with HC from Oregon and Oklahoma at 2 pm PST...can you say awkward for Oregon.
Over/under on the number of seconds it takes for the first and most obvious question?
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@C J I was joshing about Cal's broader commitment to sports. It's almost as if the administration takes a perverse level of pride in their apathy. Nobody is ever going to confuse us with a powerhouse on sports that capture the attention of most of the population. So no worries.
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On 12/5/2021 at 11:40 AM, Southwest Duck said:
Joe Brady or Petersen should be the priority.
going with a Wilcox because he’s an Oregon guy would be a huge mistake.
On 12/5/2021 at 11:48 AM, C J said:Cal doesn't give a rip about football (or any sports for that matter) so saying Wilcox hasn't done anything at Cal doesn't mean anything.
@Southwest Duck is en flic in my opinion w/r/t the Wilcox assessment. My (100% empathetic) belief is this is a lot of sentimentality overriding dispassionate assessment.
Peterson is fried and I would caution people getting any serious attachment to that notion. To his credit he knows it and isn't setting up some school to hire him only to have him churn out in 2-3 years.
As to @C J comment...ouch!
I mean, yeah, we're bad but I think unless we resurrect the corpse of Phoebe Hearst, we (oddly) just don't have the crazy wealth to compete. Also, we are more constrained by academics than other highly rated public universities. Not sure why but I think this gives support to the 'rip' sentiment.
That said, rowing and rugby are hugely supported sports. Cal and UW are bitter rivals in crew and both programs are always in the mix for a national title. That isn't moving the hype needle but we do care about some sports...
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On 12/5/2021 at 12:02 PM, latracey said:
Another interesting dynamic is the coming projected Alamo Bowl where Oregon is predicted to be playing against Oklahoma. It could be a game coached by two interim coaches and staffs.
And programs with roughly identical situations.
Maybe some pre-game commiseration to help engender mutual good will and empathy for the teams would be in order.
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On 12/5/2021 at 11:10 AM, KingT said:
Joe Brady fired today, ex LSU OC and widely believed to be QB whisperer for Joe Burrow. Just saying.
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Watching RedZone and the scrawl noted Joe Brady apparently just hit the market...just sayin' people!!! LSU. Burrow. Yes? Yes?!!! Come at me on this one.
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On 12/5/2021 at 10:11 AM, Jon Joseph said:
CHIP BOLTED. Willie and Mario left.
Hire an Oregon Man, a guy who defeated SC last night, a guy who has coached at CAL with hands tied behind his back: HIRE JUSTIN WILCOX!
I'm a Bear and am always glad to see the Furry Woodland Creatures humble USC, so I say this with nothing but love and understanding: You really don't want that.
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What [redacted] happened to the [Oregon] I used to know? Where's the spirit? Where's the guts, huh? "Ooh, we're afraid to go with you Bluto, we might get in trouble." Well just [redacted] from now on! Not me! I'm not gonna take this.
I get talent attracts attention and I have no issue with that same said talent doing what it can to maximize their compensation and situation. But why is the university expected to act as the passive partner in these situations?
Usually a coach with a wandering eye looks like one of the two scenarios: "Hot coach looking to upgrade their situation and pay" and 'this is my dream job...gosh I'm so torn.' I think the university has two distinct options in each. Let's start with the last scenario first as that is where OBD find themselves today:
I think Mullens (or any university facing the situation) should have put forward an exploding offer AHEAD that expired Sunday post Civil War? They should leak that news in parallel. At that point, you are letting Miami know they don't have to bid against someone else and you have, in essence, put the question to MC (and effectively received the answer) well before you get stuck in this game of 'are we hosed or not?' You might say that forces MC out but it really doesn't. If he is 'I want to wait and see what Miami comes with' then you know he is gone so why play that game? You aren't forcing him out. You are forcing him to stop toying with you.
That approach also has the benefit of cutting the negotiating leverage out from under MC as a wonderful parting gift.
Now, in the 'am I staying or going' scenario, a program like Oregon starts looking for other coaches. Maybe Mullens has been doing this but I too would 'accidentally' leak this. If this hurts the coach's ego then they need to grow up. "Mr Coach, you can't publicly commit to us by signing our very generous extension - or being super coy - so why are your feelings in any way hurt when I am doing the same to you? According to you, Mr Coach, it's all a business and if you want to operate by that framing, then this is exactly how the world of business works.'
Again, in this situation and exploding offer might work well. Extend them a very attractive but fair extension and offer a window of negotiation but make it clear there will be no further offers if someone else tries to poach them. Doing this has the downside of (1) pushing them closer to leaving when perhaps they would not have been and (2) if they stay, bad blood could result poisoning the proverbial well and making the departure a self-fulfilling prophecy except you end up in Clay Helton world. Not awesome.
IDK, maybe you have a clause (I'm dreaming here because the university doesn't have this type of leverage) that says if you are found to be in discussions with another university I can terminate your agreement and you forfeit all buyout money on my side.
OK, reflecting on it, maybe my aggressive take on scenario two is utterly unworkable but I would like to see the university let it be publicly known they aren't playing the game and getting out of this 'will they or won't they' dilemma given the early signing period makes it incredibly devastating when their decision doesn't go your way.
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On 12/5/2021 at 9:13 AM, Just Ducky said:
Didn’t he just get a new contract? But I agree he would fit.
He did. When I wrote the comment that news had yet to break.
Oregon is going to be the last school looking for a coach and only the dregs are left (I say that with the assumption Aranda won't leave Baylor). This is what happens when another program is fixated on landing your coach, is willing to ride or die with that regardless of how long it takes and you make the title game. In many ways, Oregon could have really benefitted to having Wazzu taking the title and letting this drama play out last week when they would have had an opportunity to at least be in the mix for other top candidates.
Now that I am on my soapbox, how about one of these days a program like Oregon starts looking for other coaches in parallel with another coach 'listening' to other offers?' Why should the program be expected to just sit back and await the coach to decide if he is going to put them at a serious disadvantage? In fact, I would be totally cool with the university 'accidentally' letting that kind of news leak.
"Mr Coach, you can't publicly commit to us by signing our very generous extension - or being super coy - so why are your feelings in any way hurt when I am doing the same to you? According to you Mr Coach, it's all a business and if you want to operate by that framing, then this is exactly how the world of business works.'
In a situation like this where 'my heart is in Miami,' how about an exploding offer AHEAD of the championship game or even the last week of the season? Leak that too. At that point, you are letting Miami know they don't have to bid against someone else and you have, in essence, put the question to MC (and effectively received the answer) well before you get stuck in this game of 'are we hosed or not?' You might say that forces MC out but it really doesn't. If he is 'I want to wait and see what Miami comes with' then you know he is gone so why play that game? You aren't forcing him out. You are forcing him to stop toying with you.
That approach also has the benefit of cutting the negotiating leverage out from under MC as a wonderful parting gift.
I'm kinda fired up
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Well, my assertion about Georgia looking like an unstoppable juggernaut took all of 20 minutes to not age well. <Sigh>
Informed Prediction Time: Chip Kelly Might be the Next Guy
in Our Beloved Ducks
Posted
God no! Please don't hire Chip Kelly. Don't even talk to the man. He's yesterday's news.
Why is the program panicking like this??? Stuff like this probably scares away good candidates because - if this is at all true - it looks like (and actually is) the administration is thrashing around wildly in a massive, irrational panic. Would you want to work with a group of folks that can't keep their head when the going gets tough?
These people are supposedly smart business people but I have to say, if stories like this are at all true, it is amazing they got as far as they did. This type of behavior is the hallmark of really bad management. Running back to the familiar rather than lean into the discomfort of what is possible greatness.
Yeah, I'm bitter.