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CalBear95's Achievements

  1. I think this is right. To me success is less than Ls vs Ws. Success is whether there is demonstrable change that shows a clear through line to an identity and output that can realistically lead to a high level of play consistent w/a very dangerous top 10 team. I do think the Ducks will be fierce this year but may not be better than Utah or Suc. Or maybe they will. But while I want to see the Ducks in a NYD bowl game this year, strong evidence that the rest of the conference is playing for 2nd place next year and beyond is good enough for me.
  2. Sorry the UC/CSU came across as defensive. I didn’t mean it to be anything other than an FYI I don’t think UW or Oregon jump the Bay Area schools as, from a market perspective that would not make sense. I suspect they all get invited at the same time so as to avoid defections from the perception of being ‘passed over’ yet again and concluding it just isn’t going to happen in the near future so tie onto X conference for Y years
  3. Cal is the lead school in the University of California system (it was the system as just the University of California, hence Cal). CSU is a different and far less powerful university system. With that said, Cal and Stanford make a ton of sense as it locks up the rest of the California market that matters. And they are respectively the best universities in their class which matters to the B1G. Ultimately I think Cal, Stanford, UW, and the Ducks go as that gives the B1G a monopoly on the west coast as well as nighttime football inventory
  4. There is a truism that says once a candidate verbally commits, it just lets the other programs know who they are competing against. Yeah, realignment FUD will be a thing. But it’s also good to see articles about how the B1G isn’t done and that Oregon is on the list. IOW, the program is set and isn’t going to fall into oblivion
  5. Exactly. You don’t want to be figuratively selling traditional media in a paid search driven market
  6. What is interesting is he probably is betting (correctly if Sankey’s “contiguous” principle is to be believed) that the SEC is in no way a threat to pick off any PAC schools. I don’t know if a Big 12 raid of the PAC forces Warren’s hand. So long as the SEC isn’t expanding (which won’t happen until the ACC GOR expires or is vacated), detente is preserved. BUT, if you believe Warren’s ‘aggressive no passive’ comment then I would assume they would not wait for some newly augmented Big 12 media deal to expire to acquire the BA and PNW media markets. IOW, I agree with you. Wondering if they are waiting on new media deal before the next rout as they want the option of extending non-full membership shares?
  7. The challenge with any of these fan based media share results is that they often lack the methodology that backs out both double dipping as well as numbers driven by TX and OU (and SC and UCLA) That is why content from The Athletic is more trustworthy than something some fan posts on the internets to show why some reporter just doesn’t get it. That may not apply to what you referenced but the moral remains the same: trust non-expert driven data cautiously
  8. That isn’t Wilner’s logic, it’s the B1G’s: Rutgers gets you the NY Metro area w/r/t media value??!!?
  9. I cannot disagree with any reason underpinned by the quality of PAC refs. I know these aren’t professionals and are probably really great people but I just don’t understand how they are so consistently bad relative to any other conference.
  10. Dude could say they aren’t expanding and ND would know that doesn’t apply to them. This is a garden variet hedge answer and deserves little scrutiny or angst
  11. This will be an issue in the short term. USC and others are going to sell how the Ducks are now a Tier 2 program, etc. Beating the snot out of SC will help
  12. If UCLA is forced to kick up some of its media money to Cal and the PAC stays together for now then the Bears stand to become the highest revenue earner in the conference. I mean, only the Bears. They look all cute with the eternal Sophomore Oski but in truth they are lurking in the shadows and will maul you a la The Revenant. Evil genius, baby. Evil genius. Go Bears!
  13. Good read. Makes me wonder if the narrative of B12 superiority is, at least partly, being spread by folks hoping to spook a defection of a few teams and start the chain reaction of the PAC’s implosion. Sort of a run on the market, if you will, so you can get access to assets you would have otherwise never had. Makes me feel that standing pat is OK. A reprieve in the chaos until this all starts again in a few years
  14. The schools fighting hardest to keep the Ducks and dogs happy have to be Wazzu and the Beavs as they are for sure getting left behind in any defections to the B12. Probably the Bay Area schools too. The challenge is that the Ducks and dogs are a little short on leverage (unless a four corner defection won’t yield those schools better $$) because, again, if nobody other than the B12 wants to take them, implosion of the PAC forces them to join the B12 So, the four schools can tell Oregon and UW that any deal is equal revenue splits, long term GOR (6 years, say), and massive exit fees. Take it or leave it because nobody’s riding to your rescue and you would die if you don’t join a conference
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