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CalBear95
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Posts posted by CalBear95
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Let’s just get through this season before we worry about a problem that would be down the road a ways.
One day at a time.
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On 8/20/2022 at 5:32 PM, Pac10again said:
I must admit Oregon's glory days were largely in part to our superior conditioning. We worked harder in practice then the other teams did. So the concept of hard work producing results is valid. But in today's culture perhaps it should be an individual's choice. Now if he wins the BIG, Nebraska fans will be cool with philosophy of "vomiting your way to the top." If he does not, then he will be a vicious task master, and looking for another job.
I couldn’t disagree more with this perspective more vehemently.
This type of coaching philosophy is in my opinion, abuse. It hails from a less enlightened era and has zero place in the game.
This is not how you develop athletes and can be quite dangerous. It took a pro player dying to end the insane ‘water is weakness’ mentality of pre-season camp.
I dearly hope nothing even remotely close happens here.
The fact Frost thinks this is something to brag about is shameful
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On 8/21/2022 at 10:24 AM, 1Ducker1 said:
To me the words Realistic Expectations mean --not very good.
I fear you may be viewing the phrase in too pessimistic a light. I think the point is the Ducks aren’t going to be UGA out of the gate even though DL was their D coordinator.
The team is talented and is coming from a system that was offensively conservative which had the downstream effect of placing additional pressure on a shaky D and, as has been noted, didn’t do a fantastic job of helping develop players to achieve their max potential
An offseason doesn’t fix that completely. The season will (should) show growth. The unfortunate reality is CFB doesn’t reward growth over the season as does a sport like basketball with its inclusive tournament that makes such teams quite dangerous.
The cupboard is by no means bare so ‘not too well’ should not be a realistic expectation of performance. But breaking into a status of being elite year in and year out takes at least two and likely three years when a program shifts gears as radically as Oregon does in transitioning from MC to DL.
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On 8/19/2022 at 12:04 PM, Mike West said:
I've been thinking about this a bit. Yes, I think the conference Presidents dropped the ball. But football out West hasn't been excellent for two decades ( since Aaron Rodgers was at Cal).
When Pete Carroll dominated the nation, even OBD we're a notch below ( and we had done very good talent at the time). So in essence, we haven't been a good football product out West for far too long.
Combine that with a fan base - consisting of a huge portion of the country- far more interested in multiple alternative forms of entertainment - you have a perfect storm scenario that may explain why we're considered "irrelevant".
People flock to excellence. West Coast football has not been competitive enough to compel West Coast fans to drop other forms of entertainment. And it doesn't snow in November out West except in the Mountain West ( not to mention NASCAR doesn't run their circuit all year, or in direct competition to cfb). Skiing and mountain climbing is popular out West.
If Colorado sucks, fans aren't going to tune into ANY matchup unless they are football fanatics ( we remember those days, right?). West Coast people aren't bred to be football fans. There aren't enough WSU or OSU to pick up any slack, the Bay Area and Southern Cal have so much to do, and frankly, it's beautiful scenery and a prime vacation spot for even the residents of that state.
50 million people in three states have plenty of attraction outside of football on Saturday. Another 20 million in our conference footprint have the same.
Counter that with a region that didn't even flinch when a pandemic hit our shores. There was absolutely no doubt football was on every Southern itinerary in 2020. And this was in May that year. Kevin Warren ( you know, our new snake), was heavily criticized for even contemplating cancelling football that year.
Football isn't a priority out West.
It's a disadvantage easy to exploit. I imagine most people out West won't even care the PAC12 disolves. They don't care about the conference now. I believe there simply aren't enough football fans out West to make a difference.
Football costs nearly three hundred dollars to enjoy at Autzen. It's practically an all day event. Heck, I haven't been to multiple football games in one year since West Coast football was relevant. I love watching it in TV too much (and I don't have to endure the craziness it has always been when we get around 60,000 people).
That's the backdrop here. Football isn't "must have" in our neck of the woods. Unless we become football zombies out West, we're apocalypse fodder for the football powers that be.
I talk too much. But reading the astute observations on this lovely forum has stirred my brain to provide some perspective I hadn't thought of for awhile.
Seattle is a football town through and through. No other way to put it.
I would not group us with the rest of the west coast in that regard
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1) ruh roh for UCLA.
2) The irony of a San Diego location for the next meeting (a potential travel partner market for UCLA should they be forced to stay).
3) Go Bears. Sounds like my fellow alumnus has his teeth into an unexpected Lee Corso.
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On 8/6/2022 at 10:25 PM, Nevada Dawg said:
I acknowledge your point Drex and don't mean to be overly argumentative, but college football I think has changed drastically since Chip's early days at Oregon, and I'm not sure that the kind of roll he and the Ducks had then is even possible any more with a first-year coach. We'll see, I guess, but as a Dawgs fan, with the Ducks as my second favorite team, I hope the roll begins after the date in the Benz on September 3.
I think this is right. To me success is less than Ls vs Ws. Success is whether there is demonstrable change that shows a clear through line to an identity and output that can realistically lead to a high level of play consistent w/a very dangerous top 10 team.
I do think the Ducks will be fierce this year but may not be better than Utah or Suc. Or maybe they will.
But while I want to see the Ducks in a NYD bowl game this year, strong evidence that the rest of the conference is playing for 2nd place next year and beyond is good enough for me.
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On 8/1/2022 at 6:20 PM, noDucknewby said:
CalBear I stand corrected on the CSU/UC distinction, and I'm not denying Cals academic credentials. I speculated on an earlier thread that Cal and Stanford would get invites, I'm just saying it's unlikely they get invited before UO/WU.
Sorry the UC/CSU came across as defensive. I didn’t mean it to be anything other than an FYI
I don’t think UW or Oregon jump the Bay Area schools as, from a market perspective that would not make sense. I suspect they all get invited at the same time so as to avoid defections from the perception of being ‘passed over’ yet again and concluding it just isn’t going to happen in the near future so tie onto X conference for Y years
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On 8/1/2022 at 3:36 PM, noDucknewby said:
Deleting as accidental duplicate
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On 8/1/2022 at 3:36 PM, noDucknewby said:
The only reason to bring Cal along would be to pacify the CSU board of regents and get UCLA off the hook.
I could see Stanford going ahead of the Ducks, but Cal? Not likely IMHO.
Cal is the lead school in the University of California system (it was the system as just the University of California, hence Cal). CSU is a different and far less powerful university system.
With that said, Cal and Stanford make a ton of sense as it locks up the rest of the California market that matters. And they are respectively the best universities in their class which matters to the B1G.
Ultimately I think Cal, Stanford, UW, and the Ducks go as that gives the B1G a monopoly on the west coast as well as nighttime football inventory
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There is a truism that says once a candidate verbally commits, it just lets the other programs know who they are competing against.
Yeah, realignment FUD will be a thing. But it’s also good to see articles about how the B1G isn’t done and that Oregon is on the list.
IOW, the program is set and isn’t going to fall into oblivion
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On 7/26/2022 at 4:23 PM, David Marsh said:
The problem is the runaway super leagues of the B1G and the SEC that are eating up all the media dollars.
Exactly. You don’t want to be figuratively selling traditional media in a paid search driven market
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On 7/26/2022 at 3:03 PM, fred flintstone said:
noDucknew.........yep.......only addition.......if the valuable properties in the pac 12 started to create a deal with the big 12 it would force him off his butt and probably cement a better deal for Oregon with the big10.
What is interesting is he probably is betting (correctly if Sankey’s “contiguous” principle is to be believed) that the SEC is in no way a threat to pick off any PAC schools.
I don’t know if a Big 12 raid of the PAC forces Warren’s hand. So long as the SEC isn’t expanding (which won’t happen until the ACC GOR expires or is vacated), detente is preserved.
BUT, if you believe Warren’s ‘aggressive no passive’ comment then I would assume they would not wait for some newly augmented Big 12 media deal to expire to acquire the BA and PNW media markets. IOW, I agree with you.
Wondering if they are waiting on new media deal before the next rout as they want the option of extending non-full membership shares?
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On 7/26/2022 at 3:08 PM, OST8 said:
TBH there may be more Oklahoma State fans in the DFW metroplex than TCU fans. OK State's enrollment hovers around 25K whereas TCU's hovers around 12K and I believe we have more alumni in DWF than we do in Oklahoma City or Tulsa.
I agree that pulling in Houston wouldn't be a bad idea (they do have a hx of being in a top league) and BYU is similar to ND in that they just have a very consistent national following.
If I'm honest the XII hasn't felt like the XII since Mizzou, Nebraska, Texas A&M, and Colorado left. I would that the PAC would not really feel like the PAC minus the LA schools but plus SDSU and UNLV. So to me, I don't really care what merges with who or even if we just scrap the whole thing and start afresh (The Continental Conference, The United Athletic Conference, etc). I just want a league that can at least bring in enough TV dollars to allow all it's programs to compete and stay relevant through all this mess.
I will say that looking at one year of TV numbers can be a little misleading. It all depends on how many games a certain team ends up with on one of the major networks vs. FS1/ESPN2 etc. I think I posted a link on this forum (somewhere ha) to an article where someone compiled all the TV viewership numbers over a 5 year period from 2015-2019 and things looked different than the numbers from last year. Not completely and totally different, but different.
The challenge with any of these fan based media share results is that they often lack the methodology that backs out both double dipping as well as numbers driven by TX and OU (and SC and UCLA)
That is why content from The Athletic is more trustworthy than something some fan posts on the internets to show why some reporter just doesn’t get it.
That may not apply to what you referenced but the moral remains the same: trust non-expert driven data cautiously
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On 7/26/2022 at 12:36 PM, sad BIG12 fan said:
Based on Jon Wilmer logic SMU and University of North Texas cover the DFW market. Sorry but I don't believe that.
That isn’t Wilner’s logic, it’s the B1G’s: Rutgers gets you the NY Metro area w/r/t media value??!!?
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I cannot disagree with any reason underpinned by the quality of PAC refs. I know these aren’t professionals and are probably really great people but I just don’t understand how they are so consistently bad relative to any other conference.
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Dude could say they aren’t expanding and ND would know that doesn’t apply to them.
This is a garden variet hedge answer and deserves little scrutiny or angst
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This will be an issue in the short term. USC and others are going to sell how the Ducks are now a Tier 2 program, etc. Beating the snot out of SC will help
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If UCLA is forced to kick up some of its media money to Cal and the PAC stays together for now then the Bears stand to become the highest revenue earner in the conference.
I mean, only the Bears. They look all cute with the eternal Sophomore Oski but in truth they are lurking in the shadows and will maul you a la The Revenant.
Evil genius, baby. Evil genius.
Go Bears!
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Good read. Makes me wonder if the narrative of B12 superiority is, at least partly, being spread by folks hoping to spook a defection of a few teams and start the chain reaction of the PAC’s implosion.
Sort of a run on the market, if you will, so you can get access to assets you would have otherwise never had.
Makes me feel that standing pat is OK. A reprieve in the chaos until this all starts again in a few years
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The schools fighting hardest to keep the Ducks and dogs happy have to be Wazzu and the Beavs as they are for sure getting left behind in any defections to the B12. Probably the Bay Area schools too.
The challenge is that the Ducks and dogs are a little short on leverage (unless a four corner defection won’t yield those schools better $$) because, again, if nobody other than the B12 wants to take them, implosion of the PAC forces them to join the B12
So, the four schools can tell Oregon and UW that any deal is equal revenue splits, long term GOR (6 years, say), and massive exit fees. Take it or leave it because nobody’s riding to your rescue and you would die if you don’t join a conference
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It’s just a raw deal for the Ducks at the moment. This happened at the worst juncture possible. Everyone says they and UW are the most valuable brands left on the west coast board but if nobody is buying then that fact helps absolutely not at all.
Timing is everything and this is just one more reason to hate Notre Dame.
While I know it will pain you all to acknowledge this, the Ducks want to be paired with the Huskies. Bigger market and more reputable brand as a university. They are a good pairing in both revenue and vitriol.
As for my Bears, it looks bleak. Our only hope is that we stay in some power conference and the B1G wants a Bay Area pod to go along with LA and PNW. And I am not hung up on the quality of our FB team. But I do care about the sports the media deal supports.
It would make me both depressed and angry if those sports went overboard as they are so associated with my time at Cal.
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Stanford has the golden ticket called Notre Dame.
I have no idea what happens to Los Osos Dorados
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So what happens if the Ducks don’t sign a deal with massive flexibility? IIRC, the PAC rights expire 2024 and I have never heard of a year by year GOR. Also, the Ducks aren’t going to sign up to some largish exit fee because why would they?
If the four corners bolt and destroy the PAC (ceases to exist in 2024) and nobody takes on the Ducks because ND has an expiring 2026 media deal and they have made no decision by then which thereby keeps dominoes from falling, the Big 12 could force the Ducks into pretty much any deal because, are they just going to hang out in limbo?
The Ducks are in real trouble because they are utterly at the mercy of the B1G and SEC in terms of timing and are on the wrong media renewal schedule.
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I’m sorry to hear the news. This variant is indeed sneaky. Read (or heard) it had an R naught of 18 which is bonkers (for context, the average flu variant is 1.2).
I have a critical follow up with my hip surgeon (been dealing w/post procedure pain for 10 months and they have no idea why) and I have been holing up as much as I can so I don’t have to reschedule against his jammed calendar.
Take care all of you out the in OBD land!
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Can Dan Lanning Fail?
in Our Beloved Ducks
Posted
I am beginning to see articles on this forum that get me a weeee bit nervous. Those that most fit this profile are whether Lanning will leave the Ducks in the lurch when X coaching position opens up.
But ‘can Lanning fail’ will work as well.
As someone in recovery, you learn to literally take it one day at a time. I know that sounds corny but it’s very true.
Now, I in now way mean to trivialize either my or any other person’s addiction by comparing it to the zeal of a Ducks sports forum. But the mantra is apt.
Lanning can fail. And he can succeed beyond our wildest dreams. Or be mediocre. Or…. You get the point.
Enjoy the present and don’t worry about the future. Trust me, life is far far more enjoyable that way (especially in sports where either catastrophizing or living delusions of grandeur are a fan base’s genetic make up
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Go Ducks!