I would be bummed if Oregon was not in that same conference as UW.  I love watching us whip those guys every year. 

Happy Birthday!!

I am going to think positive today and believe that Oregon is getting into one of the super conferences or find a creating way to keep pace.  I have a hard time believing that PK would invest $1B in the University of Oregon, then say “oh well, I guess it didn’t work out”.  Common sense says otherwise.  We will find a way to stay with the top teams. 

Wow. That would be hilarious if Miami gets left out like this article predicts, but I don’t see any chance of that happening. 

Rumors flying that the ACC has countered the BIG and the offer includes their own network. Wonder if that is enough to keep them?  I doubt it.  
 

Also, rumors flying that the BIG has informed ND that if they do not join, they will not be scheduling any more games with BIG schools.  That seems crazy, but if it is true, it may have some pull. 
 

Granted, these are all twitter rumors right now, so who knows what is true. 

On 7/4/2022 at 8:08 AM, McDuck said:

It would also put them at a permanent disadvantage.

So that is the ultimate question then.  Is Oregon at a greater disadvantage taking a reduced share in a super conference or taking a full share in a lower conference.  IMO, Oregon would be at a greater disadvantage being in the lower conference. 
 

It sounds like Stanford took the lower share to be included with ND….

 

 

I would think that Oregon and Washington would accept a lesser share to join the Big-10.  Even if they had to split one share, it is more then they are getting now ($36M) and would be in line with what the estimated new PAC deal would have been with USC and UCLA in the mix ($50M)

On 7/3/2022 at 2:37 PM, DanLduck said:

The issue for religious schools is whether their school rules allow for the acceptance of all gender and sex issues currently facing the country. And the state of CA is the main issue. They ban travel to many states for all public employees, that includes coaches.

They don’t really “ban” it, I think they just won’t fund it?  
 

For example, if UCLA goes from getting $36M/year in the PAC to $100M/year in the BIG, they will just fund their own travel.  That is not really an obstacle if the money is there I believe?  

Oregon has the 7th largest fan base in all of college football.  They were Top-10 in viewership last season.  They had 6 of the highest 8 rated games with a PAC-12 participant last season.  They are the No. 1 rated school in the entire west for viewership over the past decade.  They were part of two of the most watched national championship games in history. And they have an athletic department that Forbes rated as the 15th most valuable in all of college sports.  
 

And according to Canzano, he talked to some ex-Fox executive that thinks Oregon is only going to bring roughly $30M a year to the table for the BIG?

 

For reference, that number is $6M less than they current PAC payout of $36M, so Oregon is actually pulling the conference down?  

I am not saying that Oregon is valuable enough for the BIG to blindly add them, but using common sense, there is no possible way those numbers are correct.  

Just to add to your point BUBears that the league would be highly competitive in the short term. Just need a creative way to keep up with the SEC and BiG in revenue dollars. 
 

 

Soooo good.  Thank you for that. 

On 7/3/2022 at 6:19 AM, McDuck said:

I guess I don't understand the new math.  Reports put the B1G potential media rights at $1 billion, the same reports ballpark each of the existing 14 members will receive $100 million.  Not sure how that works.  

 

Even more confusing is by adding at least two and possibly four (or more) institutions the distribution will remain the same $100 million.  Will Fox suddenly decide to pay $2 billion for an expanded advertising base?  Wouldn't that indicate another entity (say a PAC-12/Big12 merger) might also have access to that additional billion dollars?  If Fox doesn't double their payout how does a billion dollars split 18 ways equal $100 million each?

 

 

People are just roughing out estimates based on assumptions right now.   I think the BIG deal was estimated to be just north of $1B and that was before adding USC, UCLA, and ND. Those schools will increase that number dramatically, as they bring the 2nd largest media market and national branding. Does it get to $2B?  Probably not.  And I think the payout once the deal is done will actually be closer to $80M per team, but we will see. 
 

Do I think Fox is overestimating the value of the LA market?  Absolutely, especially if USC and UCLA are not winning conference titles. 
 

 

Nice post.  The arrogance of USC and UCLA is almost laughable.  Since we expanded to 12 teams, USC has won the conference title once and UCLA has never won it.  They routinely get blown out by the likes of Oregon, Washington, Utah and Stanford.  USC had a losing record last year!!
 

The AAU thing has always been really important to the PAC-12 along with not having schools with religious affiliation (that is more of a Cal thing), but they are going to need to get over that really quickly, unless they want to fade into Bolivia (as Mike Tyson would say). 
 

I think the biggest concern is not the current level of competition.  The Big-12 and PAC-12 have plenty of competitive football and basketball teams currently. It is the fact that the merged conference would not have equivalent media markets and viewership, so they would continue to fall further and further behind schools in the BIG and SEC due to lack of funding.  With NIL in the mix, teams in the BIG and SEC are just going to rip talent away from the BiggiePac by offering more money. Eventually the gap widens and the BIG and SEC take off and the BiggiePac gets left behind.   
 

That being said, the world is changing quickly. I would be in favor of a merger to the BiggiePac.  I think it makes a ton of sense.  If the conferences don’t merge, playing football at the highest level is doomed. If they do, there is a long shot they stay relevant. 
 

The world is changing extremely quickly and there are a lot of companies with streaming services that have money to burn.  If a merged conference can think outside the box a little, maybe a streaming service like Apple TV or YouTube (owned by Google) or maybe a new one like Nike TV 🤣can generate enough cash to keep the teams competitive for the next 5-10 years.  Also, winning helps too.  There would be some great teams in a BiggiePac conference - OSU, Baylor, TCU, Cinci, BYU, Washington, Oregon, Stanford, etc that would need to step up and win some big games. 
 

In the case of a merger, the Big-12 is holding the all cards right now, so I think it is whatever they decide they want.   I think the Big-12 should grab Oregon and Washington immediately (assuming the don’t jump to the SEC or BIG). Those two are no brainers. Oregon is a national brand with Top 10 viewership numbers and UW is in a Top-15 media market.  The next two I take are actually AZ and ASU. Most will disagree with me on this, but Phoenix is now the 5th largest city in the US and growing rapidly.  

 

If those two schools can start winning some games, there is potential there.  I would grab Utah and Colorado next. Denver and Salt Lake are both growing fast, but more of a longer play.  The last two I would consider are Stanford and Cal.  They are in a major media market, but there is little to no focus on revenue-generating athletics. 

On 7/3/2022 at 12:20 AM, Flaps2 said:

Oregon isn't going to settle for the Big12 or ACC. Oregon is BIG10 Bound. All financial losses from the 2020 Covid year will be wiped out in year one of joining them. It's happening. Just be ready for the whining from the local media river rat contingent. 😏 

Well.  The Ohio State NIL collective thinks it’s happening:

 

 

On 7/2/2022 at 10:43 AM, OST8 said:

In reference to your comment that Oregon isn't the equivalent of TTech or Oklahoma State...I actually don't disagree with you, I just don't understand why that's the case.

 

The reason it feels confusing is that all I ever hear about in this whole conference realignment circus is that it's driven by football TV money which is all tied in with how many eyeballs do each school draw when they are on TV. 

 

IF that's the case from 2015-2019 Oklahoma State ranked 19th in the country in terms of TV ratings with Oregon at 26th and TTech at 38th. And yet, I'm with you in terms of just...sensing that Oregon is more "valuable" than Oak State. I just don't understand why. Is it the perceived ceiling of each school? Is it academics? Oklahoma State is an R1 research university (next step up is AAU), so while it's no Stanford it's considered very solid academically (on paper anyways).

 

What are your thoughts there?

I think when you look at the overall numbers, Oregon is there with anyone else in the west.   They have the No. 7 ranked fan base based on numbers, last season they were 10th in TV viewership, they have been the No 1 team in the west in terms of viewership over the past decade, and they are ranked 15th by Forbes on the most valuable athletic programs list. In addition, 6 of the 8 top ranked games last year in terms of viewership in the PAC-12 were Oregon games. Oregon is a true national brand right now.  
 

Things probably holding Oregon back right now from being an easy yes is that they are in a smaller TV market and although they are an AAU school, getting ranked 375th in academics by the WSJ, including 12th in the PAC-12 is not a good look. 

I am probably one of the few people that would prefer to join the SEC.  If we are going to be on 4-5 hour plane flights anyways, let’s just go the extra distance and play in the best conference in states with better weather,  bigger parties, and more hospitality. 
 

I know it is a pipe dream though. 
 

 

On 7/1/2022 at 11:54 PM, AllOregon said:

That is a fake account.  Check the name “Trollsby” lol. Also consider the time stamp.  Would not make sense.

Yikes!  Sorry I posted misleading information and thanks for the correction!

I think CalBear is on to something.  My only question is are the remaining teams in the PAC (assuming they stay together) going to allow USC and UCLA to stay in conference for non-football and basketball sports right after they drove the knife into the back of the remaining schools and screwed them out of millions of dollars in TV money?  

If I am Oregon, I am scheduling Cal and Stanford twice instead of USC and UCLA. 

 

On 7/1/2022 at 8:09 PM, QuackAttack said:

Some of the discussion in this thread is a bit of PAC-12 fans being self-absorbed. I love my Ducks, but I am a realist. What makes anybody truly think the SEC wants Oregon? That 200,000 Eugene/Springfield market isn't going to be burning down any SEC doors. As for poaching Big-12 schools, we're a year late. They are in the drivers seat now, not the PAC-12. If anything, the Big-12 may come around and poach the best of the PAC-12. From a media standpoint, that starts with the Arizona schools due to Phoenix, proximity is also a benefit. Next would be Colorado and Utah, both large markets and in the mountain time zone. Then UDUB and Oregon to keep a rival pair. That would take them to 18 teams. If they went to 20, they would take Stanford and Cal, which leaves OSU and WSU holding the empty bag.

It sounds like the Big-12 extended offers to UW, UO, AZ and ASU today, but not Colorado or Utah. It will interesting to see if we accept. 

On 7/1/2022 at 4:30 PM, DazeNconfused said:

I'm confused where you are getting that ND is going to get 100 million a year? The SEC deal with ESPN is 300 million a year, how is ND going to end up with 100 million for itself? Right now, I've read ND get $15 million a year from NBC.

 

Please explain what I'm missing or misunderstand of you post.

If I am reading it correctly, ND gets about $38M a year from NBC.  They would get $80 to $100M a year from the BiG under the new media deal.  Expect them to say yes. 

On 7/1/2022 at 4:30 PM, DazeNconfused said:

I'm confused where you are getting that ND is going to get 100 million a year? The SEC deal with ESPN is 300 million a year, how is ND going to end up with 100 million for itself? Right now, I've read ND get $15 million a year from NBC.

 

Please explain what I'm missing or misunderstand of you post.

The revenue sharing for the new BIG media deal is estimated at $80 to $100M per year per team.  It will be well over $1B with the addition of UCLA and USC. 

Yeah.  I am with all of you.  I am really going to miss the PAC-12.  It is bumming me out, but maybe the buffalo trace and IPAs are helping a little bit right now.  
 

 

Yes please!!   I think it is a long shot, but the SEC would be awesome. It is for sure better than the Big-12 or staying put. 

On 7/1/2022 at 2:34 PM, 1Ducker1 said:

well maybe but Stanford has a small viewership and terrible attendance.

I know, but it is not like Rutgers and Maryland are any better. Academics, grants, and other things are at play here I am afraid. 

On 7/1/2022 at 2:11 PM, fred flintstone said:

Sorry......but if ND agrees it will probably not be Oregon. 

 

Cal, Stanford or Washington all fit better if my guess is correct. 

 

They all have more powerful academics. larger schools, very large markets and don't present a situation in the NIL era in which a rich person who is extremely supportive can outbid the rest of the league for talent. 

 

Even USC or UCLA, now members of the Big 10 might veto Oregon membership. They want the southern Cal recruiting for themselves. Weakening Oregon only helps them. Having Oregon in an expanded Big 12 does that. Playing Stanford and Cal is an easier and closer road game for the LA teams. Neither recruits well in CA. 

 

As a USC fan I don't see what USC did positively in the long term. The travel is going to kill them.......but.........they sure screwed the rest of the conference......particularly, Washington, Oregon, Cal and Stanford. The other pac 12 members really never belonged in a power 5 or can make a good fit with the Big 12 easily. 

 

IMO Oregon is going to have to make lemonade out of lemons and join the Big 12......if they can......and since most of the markets in an expanded BIG 12 are growing much faster than the midwest.....might end up just fine.  

 

 

 

I don’t like this take, but I agree with it. If ND joins, Stanford is the team the BiG is adding.