[Whoa! Big CFP 12-Team Playoff News]

This is HUGE news for the Pac-10 since the format currently includes the Top 6 ranked conference winners and 6 at large bids.  It would be highly unlikely that the Pac-10 winner would not be in that Top 6.

 

Now that there is a clear path to the playoff for the PAC, does that help stabilize things?  I think so.  If the Pac-12 can get creative and get the revenue closer to $45-50M per school, that might just save the conference.

 

Is UCLA going to be the biggest loser in all of conference realignment?  I could see a path where that ends up being the case. 

 

 

[OBD Prediction Contest Versus Georgia Bulldogs]

UGA 38-24; 1; 3; 247

 

 

 

[Kirby Smart: " Oregon is the Best Team in the Pac-12"]

On 8/31/2022 at 10:22 PM, Nevada Dawg said:

USC is a paper  tiger this year in my opinion but will be tough in the years to come.

Yeah...I agree.  USC needs to fix their line play on both sides of the ball before they are going anywhere special.  You can bring in all the talented skill players you want, but you need protection and you need to be able to stop the run.  I am not sure they are there yet, but I guess we will see.  

 

In fairness, I am also the guy that thinks Oregon only wins 9 games this year, so maybe I am just a little bit negative.  

 

As much as I hate to say it, Washington is going to surprise a lot of people this year.  They have the third highest blue chip ratio in the conference, pretty decent balance on their roster, and now they have a very good head coach. 

[The Choice is Pretty Simple to Me About Oregon's Future...]

If you get the invite to the BIG, you have to take it I guess.  There is not really a choice IMO if you want to stay relevant.

 

However, it just feels like a terrible match. The thought of having to go to NJ to play Rutgers in a conference game in October is just flat out gross. 

 

I would prefer to stay in the Pac, but I understand why we need to go if we get the offer.  

 

 

[Oregon Football All-Time Roster: Defensive Starters and Backups]

I wonder where Cliff Harris would be on that list if he would have been able to stay on the team for a full 3-4 years.  That dude was dominate.

[Oregon Running Back: Jeremiah Johnson]

Always fun to see Masoli 30 yards down field blocking guys.   

[Six Schools That the Pac-12 Should Consider Adding]

On 8/17/2022 at 8:47 AM, kirklandduck said:

I cut Xfinity and now stream all my content through Netflix, Amazon Prime, and Sling. Best decision ever.

Agree.  I cut cable years ago and it is the best thing I ever did.  I took me several months to get everything down, but I have access to more sports and get every single duck football and basketball game.  In general, my bill is 50% less and I have complete control of my content.  Also, if I am going on vacation or don't have anything I want to watch, you pause your subscription, so you are not paying when you don't need access.

 

As Duck Desert pointed out, an HD antenna is essential.

 

Streaming package is essential.  Cable TV will be completely gone within the next 10 years. 

 

And back on topic....go get UNLV and SDSU right now.    

[Does This Reported Clause in Big Ten’s New Media Deal Indicate Expansion Isn’t Over?]

Sounds like 20 is the magic number for the BIG according to Warren. So the question is will Oregon be included in the last 4?  

[Bo Nix’s Leash: How Long?]

Here is my bold prediction for the year.  Nix is going to explode and have a huge senior season, making the amount of "leash" a non-issue.  This offense is perfect for him and he is going to have protection to throw the ball.  Last year he cleaned up the mistakes, as he only threw 3 picks in 9 games.

 

Just a small note to consider - After Nix went down to injury, Auburn didn't win another game last year. 

 

 

[Michael Schill Leaving]

This could be good or bad depending on how you look at it, but Oregon probably just got one more vote to join the BIG.

 

[Yahoo Sports - The Pac-12 Will Survive]

On 8/10/2022 at 11:10 AM, Duck 1972 said:

Great news! Now do we stay at 10 or go for San Diego St and UNLV before the B12 does. I say go get them even if it lessens our money a couple of mil. Would somewhat give us the LA market back and tie up Las Vegas. That can't hurt.

Agree.  They need to add SDSU and UNLV right now. Both those schools get $4M/year from the MWC.  If the Pac-12 offered them $8M/year under this new media rights contract that is open right now and full shares under the next future media rights deal, there is a 99.9% chance they jump and it wouldn't require existing schools to give up money to get them. 

 

San Diego TV market is ranked No. 8 and Vegas is ranked No. 26 and Vegas is growing fast.  It is more of a long-term play, but a smart one.     

 

As long as the Pac-12 has a path to the playoff, I don't care what they say about the conference.  That direct path to the playoff for the conference winner is everything going forward.  

[Will Oregon Ducks Re-Add LeBron James Actor and 5-Star Small Forward Mookie Cook? (Analysis)]

Sounds like Mookie is going to make a decision on Friday.  Fingers crossed. 

[Canzano: Pac-12 Conference Gets a Much-Needed Win]

Wow.  CBS paying more for tier 3 BIG rights than ESPN offered for Tier 1 PAC rights?

 

yikes. 

[Regarding Bo Nix: Beware ‘Bandwagon Buy-In’]

On 8/3/2022 at 5:30 AM, Jester said:

Perhaps my initial prediction of a four-loss regular season isn’t one to be scoffed at after all.     

 

 

Agree.  The expectations right now for this team seem to be completely out of touch with reality.  Maybe this article will help bring some of those expectations back down to earth a little.

 

I know I have said this before, but Oregon lost their leading passer, leading receiver, and leading rusher on offense.  They also lost the leader in sacks and interceptions on defense.  Combine that with a completely new coaching staff and this team is probably going to take some lumps this year.  Even with the talent we have on the roster right now, that is a HUGE amount of production to replace in a completely new system.   

 

Bo may not be "the guy" like this article claims, but where does that leave Ty and Butters after the spring game?  IIRC, Lanning's top priority in evaluating QBs is points per possession and Nix was WAY out in front of the other QBs in the spring game.    

[Should the PAC-12, Big 12, and ACC Combine into One Super-Duper Conference?]

That would be awesome!  Take the 18 best teams and make west, central, and eastern pods.  
 

Play the other 5 pod teams in your region every year and 2 each from the other two regions on a rotating schedule.  

 

[How Many Games Do You Think the Ducks Will Win?]

I would say 9-3, but win the north and the conference.  Here is why

Completely new coaching staff, with new offensive and defensive schemes.  

Replacing leading passer, receiver, and rusher on offense.

Replacing the leader in sacks and interceptions on defense.

Difficult schedule to start the year with Georgia and BYU.

 

There is a tremendous amount of talent on this team, but it just feels like we are going to take a few lumps when you look at the situation objectively.  Hopefully I am wrong and talent will bridge those gaps, but that is asking a lot.        

[Big Ten Commish: The Conference Could Expand Beyond USC, UCLA]

Wow...if you watch the video, Dennis Dodd is saying the offer for the 4 schools will be around $250M, so each school would get north of $60M.  A reduced share, but almost double where the Pac is right now.  It will be interesting to see what happens. 

 

It is difficult to tell how much of this is real and how much is just positioning.  Either way, I think it helps us.  This report is surely making ESPN a little uneasy as they are at risk of losing the west coast market.  

 

[Canzano: George Kliavkoff Will Face the Music at Pac-12 Media Day]

On 7/26/2022 at 12:21 PM, TexasDuck said:

What I never, ever hear from them is they are trying to get away from playing us.  They recognize that we are very strong, and have out-recruited them often in their own back yard.  They are looking forward to Lincoln Riley changing that.  But they're not afraid of us. 

 

Agree.  This is just some ridiculous narrative that was started by keyboard warrior on social media.  USC is afraid of Oregon and their solution to that problem is to let tOSU, Michigan, and Penn State into their backyard?  

 

They left a conference with one team (Oregon) that had a better blue chip ratio to join a conference with 4 teams that have better blue chip ratios.  And they just gave those teams direct access to their recruiting grounds.  That just screams "I'm scared". 

 

I hate this move by USC, but understand why they did it.  It is not because they are scared of anything, except maybe getting ripped off by a conference that is not up with the times.          

[San Diego State Seen As Essential to Pac-12]

On 7/25/2022 at 1:14 PM, McDuck said:

I'm confused.  The ACC, Big 12 and Pac-12 members received roughly 50% revenue compared to the B1G and SEC.  Conventional wisdom said there was no way they (ACC, Big 12, Pac-12) could compete--they were doomed.

 

 

Is Oregon an outlier of conventional wisdom?  I think we are about to find out.

 

I am of the opinion that Oregon will continue to be competitive no matter where they land.  They are a national brand, a Top-15 football program, with huge alumni support, and are one of the few athletic programs in the country that actually turns a decent profit. 

 

In other words, I think Oregon is closer to Notre Dame than UCF.    

 

[San Diego State Seen As Essential to Pac-12]

On 7/25/2022 at 1:43 PM, Tandaian said:

My guess is the first 5(?) years of the new conference member is given less than a full share of TV revenue.  Once they have their feet wet in the Pac 12, then they get full share.  

 

You are correct McDuck, if the new members are never given full share, then they likely wouldn't be competitive.

50% of a Pac-12 share (roughly $15M) is a lot more money than a full MWC share ($4M), so I am guessing that any school in the MWC would jump on that immediately, especially considering the increased exposure and promise of full shares when the next contract rolls around. 

 

[San Diego State Seen As Essential to Pac-12]

On 7/25/2022 at 12:52 PM, DUCati855 said:

They must bring additional value or your just getting a smaller piece of the pie.

The Mountain West TV revenue payout is $4M a school.  You just tell SDSU, UNLV, and anyone else you want that they have 50% (or whatever makes the numbers work) shares for the first contract, then they are full share members for the second contract.  They would jump on that deal in a second and be competitive by the time the next agreement rolls around.    

[San Diego State Seen As Essential to Pac-12]

Why not UNLV with SDSU instead of Fresno?  The Vegas media market is better (No. 40 vs. 54).  They are an R1 research school with a medical school.  Plus, Vegas has some decent HS football talent.  And it is VEGAS, right?  A little extra bang for your buck.  Side note....the distance between SDSU and Frenso / UNLV is almost identical (roughly 350 miles).    

 

That being said, whatever it takes to save the PAC I am good with. 

[Ducks Talk: Future Still Uncertain for Pac-12, Oregon]

I understand that Oregon has to join the BIG if the opportunity comes, but I have no desire for Oregon to be in that conference.  It is a terrible match. 

 

I hope we find a way to keep the PAC together.     

[Big 12, Pac-12 May be Realizing They're Worth More Together Than Apart]

I feel like 1 of 2 things will happen:

 

1) UO and UW will negotiate a reduced market share to join the BIG.
 

2) UO and UW sign a GOR and keep the PAC conference together.  This flips the power from the BIG-12 back to the PAC, as UO and UW are the two most valuable remaining brands on the table. 
 

I don’t see how it makes any sense for UO or UW to join the Big-12.  

[Reports Suggest Oregon, Washington Unlikely to Join Big Ten]

If I remember correctly, ESPN has the media rights currently for the PAC and ACC.  Fox has the Big-12, so I think people are just assuming the ACC/PAC partnership would be easier / more likely.