Duck Fan 76

This is what I'm talking about with regard to the LA echo chamber. I lived 10 years in Ohio and if you walk into a sports bar on Saturday everyone is obviously watching Ohio State games. If that game is over and Oregon is being broadcast on one of the 10 TVs (rare enough unfortunately), people are watching Oregon. I see Duck Jersey's in Texas, Florida, DC. They are everywhere, everywhere...

True, we are facing "neutral sites" and inequitable payoffs. What we loose there we makeup in merchandise in a much larger market. The goal isn't short term cash as much as take lesser gains now and build the brand inside of their market share. Think Pepsi 1970s. They had to loose revenue to eat into Coke markets.

I agree with you, Oregon can play well in the Big10, Big12 or even the SEC given time. My point is closer to what Cowherd was saying regarding football schedules in general. E.g. that Oregon could best maximize our national brand by controlling more of our own schedule and getting more of those must see matchups during primetime. Nothing against the Beavers or Cougars but those games are watchable for us die hards and that's about it. The counter balance is that it's actually dangerous to our players to have every weekend be the crucible. If the program is able to maximize the brand, NIL will flow. If the program can develop talent and keep players healthy, NFL drafts will happen. If drafts and NIL are healthy recruiting is healthy and we are on a self righting ship. I agree that we can do well in the BIG? but I think we can potentially explode if Oregon isn't overly tethered to the self important programs that can't stop talking about leather helmets and NFL legends that collect social security. (Much love to USC).

It's definitely an interesting point and I think it's better than the BIG10 option. My concern is that things are changing so fast in college football and stability is a ways off and I can't predict what that future will look like. I know Oregon got hosed by really bad PAC decisions that sourced from the LA think tanks/echo chambers. I guess I trust the thinking at Nike headquarters more than the Big 10 or 12. So I see value in Oregon keeping maximum control for the foreseeable future and using the Nike connection to help it make smart branding decisions. Cause marketing is what Nike does!

The more I read about the situation and the more I think about the situation the less convinced I am that joining the Big10 is a good idea. I've been a Ducks fan since I was a kid, back when it was a great season if we became bowl eligible. I spent 20 years in the military traveling the planet, working miracles to watch Oregon football with the absolute worst media contract imaginable. Oregon currently generates about half the revenue of the Big10 schools for broadcasts due to the incompetence of the PAC's leadership. In the short run that hasn't damaged us because of Phil Knight. He makes Oregon one of the best funded football programs in the country. My travel experience however showed me there are Oregon football fans EVERYWHERE! I had friends who played football at Clemson who loved watching the Ducks. The best quote was a friend that said watching Oregon play was like watching the old Florida St games. They were just amazing to watch. What I think that means is that the key for Oregon is to play exciting football in a way that keeps our players healthy, hungry and happy. I think a smaller PAC-10 with even fewer conference games is the solution. The new conference championship takes the top two rated teams so the head to heads don't matter like they used to. If Oregon (and the rest of the PAC) mix their non-conference games throughout the season instead of front loading them we can maximize the value of long travel games and put short travel rest games in between. If you have to fly the team to the east coast to play an away game should it be Rutgers at 7PM EST or Clemson at Noon? My point is that going into Ohio State and winning was not only a ratings win, that game won us long term Oregon fans outside of the state. Oregon playing Georgia is going to be a HUGE ratings draw and if we play well in that game recruits in the SEC will notice and consider Oregon as a potential commit (like they do now). I believe Oregon can do what Clemson has done but do it even better. Instead of 1 good game and the rest are puffs Oregon should negotiate a few great primetime matchups in other media markets. Essentially build Oregon as a national brand focused on exciting prime time football on Fox AND ESPN. It's what ND tried to do but couldn't actually win the games. Right now the PAC needs Oregon and that gives Oregon power in the upcoming media negotiations. We can tell the PAC how many conference games we are willing to play. We can tell the PAC we are keeping the whole share of away non-conference games and we schedule those ourselves. We can keep the civil war and the Washington rivalry. We can be the PACs automatic bid almost every year to play in the Rose Bowl (assuming that we can keep that one tradition locked in). We can schedule USC every year and embarrass them at home, run up the score, have puddles tackle the trojan on game day and deliver a NW beat down. We can be in control of Oregon football destiny and make sure Oregon gets asked if "so and so" is okay as the new commissioner. We can be USC but actually good at it.

First let me admit that it was shocking that USC and UCLA made this move and panic makes some sense as the initial reaction. That being said however if we slow down and think carefully there are some key points to consider here. Point 1) The advantage to moving for USC and UCLA is money (TV contracts). The disadvantages are numerous, here are a few: Recruiting athletes willing to fly across the country for a 9AM pst game against really stiff competition for most of their season. Does that help or hurt a five star athlete for the draft? Abandoning the history of the Rose Bowl and tying it purely to the BCS system which is very much in flux. USC and UCLA had outsized influence on how the PAC was run. In the Big-10 they are the new kids and are going to get pushed around by Michigan, OSU and possibly Notre Dame. Point 2) Oregon moving to any other conference could do more harm than good. Some SEC history can make this point. Schools moving conferences benefited the SEC and not the schools that moved. Point 3) The goal is to put Oregon in the best position to recruit and develop talent. Considering the current track record does moving conferences help that? In my opinion USC and UCLA moving out of the PAC presents an opportunity for Oregon to absolutely dominate southern california recruiting. That is where Oregon's sense of urgency should be. The PAC has an opportunity to lead instead of following and innovate in how a college football conference operates in a much weaker NCAA. If the changes help its players to maximize their college opportunity then recruiting will improve and with it the fortunes of the PAC.

For Oregon to have a decent running game against Georgia we have to get some defenders out of the box. Oregon has a very good OL but they are neutralized by Georgia's DL. We need Georgia concerned about maintaining the edge containment and LB's forced into coverage. That's all much easier said than done especially against Georgia's defense and coaching. It's all about offensive balance and keeping defenders chasing their tales on alignments and sets. Oregon has talent but I think the game will depend on how well the coaches diagnose and call plays under the new offense.

To me the question of Bo's picks is a bit nuanced. To answer the question for any QB's merit as a starter you have to ask which QB gives the team the best chances to win. All of our QB's for 2022 have some potential downside but that is true of pretty much any team. Drilling down to the question of Bo's picks as it pertains to his merits as the starter then becomes a question of diagnosing how those picks affect the teams chances of winning in balance with his other positives. The clip of the Florida game shows some bad throws for sure but that was not a good game at all for Auburn. If you check Bo's stats here you will find that Bo finished 2021 with 3 picks on the season. AB's stats here show 7 picks on the season. In fact AB has higher QB rating than Bo did any of his years starting for Auburn. Bo's game by game stats here tell a more nuanced story where you can see Bo's stats are really all over the place. One really interesting stat to bring up is the 2019 Oregon(#11) vs Auburn(#16) game where Justin threw 1 interception and Bo threw 2. Bo however led the drives in the 4th quarter that won the game for Auburn, here is the recap. That loss and the close one to Arizona state put a 2 loss Notre Dame in the playoffs ahead of Justin and a great Oregon football team. So what should we surmise from the stats? I don't think stats really tell the tale very well for football in general and really QB's stats have a lot of outside factors so their stats closely mirror team stats in general. Looking back on the film I see Bo working his butt off to put Auburn in a position to win games. I think the 2019 performance set an expectation that reality couldn't match, not just for Bo but for Auburn football. What concerns me about video highlights of Bo (I didn't watch many Auburn games) is I see a talented football player who was trying to put the team on his shoulders and get the win. That's the kind of stuff we hear announcers talk about saying great players make great plays in big games. It makes for great football broadcasts but I don't believe it makes for great football teams. If you scroll back to Justin and Mariota playing at Oregon they were at their worst when they put too much on themselves and tried to force the win. They looked amazing when they played WITH their teams and looked for the openings that fit the situations. Bo scrambles for yards when the defense brings pressure. A little of that is good but too much is a disaster and allows defenses to collapse your passing games. You usually beat pressure with completions that force defenders back into zone. Mariota was different but that resulted in injuries. Bo tries to thread the ball into well defended receivers and that can result in picks or batted balls. I see that a lot in the SEC play honestly as there are some really good defenses in the SEC. Alabama and Georgia last year won games by not putting their QB's into very many high pressure situations and allowing their offenses to dictate terms. In the end my diagnosis for Bo in 2021 was too much pressure for him to make plays happen and not enough support from the whole team (including his OC calling the game) to allow him to be comfortable in the position. What do I hope happens for Bo in 2022? I hope that the Oregon defense is able to stay healthy and dominate games in the PAC-12 and keep things competitive against Georgia and beyond. I hope DL and KD are winning chess matches against opposing defenses and we have the right plays being called in the right situations. I hope the receivers and running backs become weapons and are finding the seams in defenses to play in space and create yards per run and yards after the catch. I hope special teams is in the top 50 for stats and generally plays sound football. I hope that Bo's job is read, check 1, check 2, have faith in the next play. I hope that Bo gets confidence that when playmakers are in space TD's will follow. In short I hope Bo has a team playing with him and his job is simplified to a couple of easy decisions and a comfortably thrown ball. I hope that when pressure DOES come that he will have gained the confidence in his team to weigh the risks on balance and not force balls or scramble without need. If my hopes pan out then 2022 will be a great season for Oregon and Ty will get another year of growth and hit the ground running in 2023.

Player ratings aren't all they are cracked up to be, although it's gotten better in the past few years. This is an old article but it tells a story about the 2017 pro bowl that is relevant to the topic of blowing cash on NIL deals for high school athletes. Basically ratings are a tool but they aren't the focus. I know that at one point the PAC-12 had the highest rating for 5-star recruits making it to the NFL AND staying more than 2 seasons. As I recall in the 2000's the PAC-12 was considered to be a top notch conference for actual player development and that shifted on us but I can't say why exactly. That is I think where the conferences future needs to be headed to stay viable. The SEC is in a class of its own due to geography but the PAC-12 can return to innovation and the way to do that I think is to focus on getting every student athlete on the path to their full potential. That means full-spectrum player development and not just recruiting highly rated players and focusing on position development alone. From what I've seen of DL's approach that is his focus and the recruiting element complements that and doesn't replace it.

BLUF: Oregon should NOT engage in the NIL pay-to-play scams. The current wild west of NIL has some serious risks that bigtime UO boosters are likely aware of. If you are wondering what I'm talking about you can read a quick explainer on what I believe the central issue is here. What does the federal gift tax have to do with NIL? Possibly everything if the NIL deal isn't totally above board. The key wording on the gift tax is what is defined as a gift, namely "Any transfer to an individual, either directly or indirectly, where full consideration (measured in money or money's worth) is not received in return." You can check the IRS rules here. If a student athlete gets an NIL deal that is considered fair, meaning their name, image or likeness is purchased for a fair market value then everything is above board, and we are meeting the intent of the Supreme Court's ruling. If a booster or any interested party artificially inflates the NIL payment significantly above fair market value to pay a student athlete to commit to a school, then we are in the region of pay-to-play which is not currently legal or allowable by the NCAA. Big deal, right? Who is going to call the IRS on something like this anyway? How about Alabama's football program that is seeing the ground shift under their dominant recruiting program? How about major UO boosters that want no part in a bidding war for athletes? But it's not a gift, right? So, the tax doesn't apply, and the IRS can't do anything anyway, right? Well, that totally depends on how the IRS decides to view these NIL payments. The IRS knows that pay-to-play isn't legal and the NIL contracts all include verbiage that specifies the money is for NIL work from the student athlete. So, this is a small potato's issue that the IRS will not respond to. Maybe? That remains to be seen to be honest but one thing you can bank on with the IRS, any coordinated attempt to actively evade taxes is viewed as a criminal proceeding. If you make a mistake with federal taxes, you are facing fines. If you and a few of your lawyer friends get together at a private club and discuss ways to send payments to student athletes to get them signed to your favorite university team... That's a no kidding conspiracy and opens the door to at a minimum an audit or possibly even a federal warrant to look at your NIL collectives’ books. If you pay $100k for a signed photo of a freshman QB prospect and do nothing with that photo, you may have some serious explaining to do to convince an IRS accountant that it amounts to "full consideration (measured in money or money's worth)." If you pay for 10 of those photos for multiple student athletes and can't make a case that you are operating a legitimate business that purchases NIL items from students then the IRS has uncovered "indicators of fraud" and they can choose to hand the case to the US attorney who can then determine if your collective engaged in a conspiracy to circumvent regulations and submitted false documentation to the IRS to substantiate your false dealings with the NCAA and its rules. Are we talking about prosecuting student athletes? That's the good news story here because the students aren't the entities here facing potential criminal charges. No, the students are skirting the edges of the NCAA's policy and likely the NCAA isn't going to react harshly to some student athletes that saw this as how the system now works. If they pay the NIL money back, then most likely they NCAA will just write them a letter that says, "don't do that again". Further, once their NIL deals are nullified then the NCAA will remind them that the transfer portal is available to them if they so choose. Who gets in trouble? Mostly rich white guys that looked to use some of their million-dollar entertainment budget to buy a little bit more joy in their life by paying top recruits to sign with their favorite university team. I don't see anyone coming to their defense anytime soon. To be fair I'm a huge believer in the NIL reforms, I think it’s only fair that these students get a cut of the profits the NCAA has monopolized for so long. The paid with a world class education line only gets you so far when you consider how much burden the NCAA places on student athletes. How many student athletes can swing the demands of an Engineering program on top of the sports schedule? I think a student that wants to shoot ads for Kendall Ford should be allowed to and enjoy their local celebrity status. Should we be paying 7 figures to student athletes to sign them with UO? Probably not, I'd only be in favor of that if all the university football programs across the country that received public funding were spun off as non-profit's and used at least some of their resources to also pay the student athletes from the past for their lifetime of medical bills.