Duck Fan 76

The truth is rarely sweet but you hit the nail on the head. Oregon has significant talent and depth across the roster with the notable exception of QB where we have talent but unfortunately a significant step down to the backup. Thompson showed in the second half what we already knew that he has an elite arm for the post route but his first half proved that he still has no touch and gets tunnel vision. As I see it, our season largely depends on Bo's health. If Bo stays healthy the whole season then this is going to be a special year, if not then we see just how good of a QB coach Will Stein really is.

The Heisman voters are first and foremost sports journalists. That makes the award essentially a CFB popularity contest amongst journalists. The voters have a tendency to favor QB's as you mentioned and I would add that they also strongly favor a good narrative. What Bo needs to be on the Heisman stage is a good story on how his play seems to have elevated his team. Oregon fans would state that this is obvious but even after last years extraordinary play some journalists are looking for the narrative to turn on Bo. They are ready to write stories about the return of Auburn Bo and how last year it was KD, or the O-line.. or whatever. What I would say is that if Bo plays extremely well AND Oregon finds a lot of success then the narrative is that it was Bo lifting the team. If that happens and his QB stats are respectable then he will be on the stage in NYC. To win the award is harder and will require Oregon to have a special season in my mind and most importantly the narrative coming out of the Washington and USC games needs to be that Bo "looked" like the better QB. All of that is pretty subjective and reason to take the Heisman award with a couple blocks of salt. Working against Bo is that Oregon is first and foremost a running team. Bo is most likely going to average under 35 passes a game in 2023 unless the season goes off the rails. That means his stats aren't likely to be as impressive as other QBs with the exception of his completion percentage as he's only likely to throw high percentage passes with the option. Ultimately I would say if Bo wins the Heisman he's going to have to thank the Oregon defense for taking a huge step up in 2023 allowing the Oregon buzz to reach a crescendo and the Bo buzz along with it.

"...with the new Dan Lanning era of coaching expertise and recruiting–might Our Beloved Ducks be in that position again soon?" I feel we definitely have the potential and we will certainly know more at the end of 2023 on the program trajectory. It's hard to ask much more of a new staff than the offensive turnaround we saw in 2022. Credit to MC that offensive line was possibly the best in school history. Credit to DL for seeing the opportunities to put the O back in Oregon. Progress on defense is still an unknown and special teams was poor so more work needs to be done. Like many on the forum I'm a believer that Oregon's defense will take more time to settle in on its actual trajectory but I'm hopeful that we "could" see significant progress in 2023. There are certainly risks to the 2023 roster and some unknowns on the staff but I feel Oregon's 2023 expectations are to play for the conference title. Less than competing in Vegas will be seen as an overall negative based on talent mismatch. We've talked a lot about coaching stability but if the 2023 season continues to show a positive bubble for the program I would hope that the AD moves to lock in DL for a much longer term as Oregon's HC. If DL's system proves to be workable for Oregon then we should try and cement him as the Oregon HC for the long haul. I think it will honestly come down to a question of his goals but if his methods prove out then Oregon needs to try. Everyone, including DL knows that the ultimate goal is to win a National Championship at Oregon. To accomplish that we need to see consistent program growth and Oregon needs to be making it into the 12 team playoff consistently over the next 10 years. When will we win? Too hard to predict, but look at how long it took Kirby Smart to get Georgia where they are. Georgia has geographic advantages but Oregon has the Nike relationship. So no excuses, "Just Do It".

Yup, it didn't even occur to me that 14 in this context wasn't a 4 TE set. I wish I had better resources to watch film, it kills me to try and study plays with the horrible TV camera angles provided. I'm sure it's somehow optimal for casual watching but there so much game missed when we zoom in at weird angles or cut away to random stuff. Watching the games live is great for a lot of things but I miss a lot of nuance that I like to check on film.

Wow, it didn't even occur to me that Ferguson wasn't in the 14J. Thanks for correcting me!

As usual, great analysis! I love every one of these articles, I can't get enough X's and O's. The two things I love about the Heavy Veer: 1) The QB hands off the ball in short yardage 2) It can be run with three TE's as we currently only have three scholarship TEs. If Oregon's new O-line this year can execute the run blocking then I would expect this to be a new short yardage staple. The 14J unfortunately requires more TE's than we have on the roster unless we give the walk-ons game time in key short yardage situations or get creative with positions. Short yardage gains is an area where we need to see some creative play design or we risk having to use a high mix of the QB sneak to keep our 3rd/4th down and red zone percentages up. To keep this play in the high percentages Oregon is going to need mutliple looks from this formation to keep the DB's from rushing to the gaps without a post snap read. I'm interested in what the multiples look like from this formation?

Actually, Alabama's entire football staff costs about $20 Million. Oregon could easily pay that. Most of the schools that "need" the revenue is for facilities upgrades and Oregon is more than set there. NIL also doesn't come out of school revenues.

Well it happened but no announcements were forthcoming. So there are two major points to consider here. Point one is that the PAC has kept leaks to a minimum for the whole process so "leaks" reported on by the media should be looked at with suspicion. Point two is that they didn't announce anything from the meeting so the only real takeaway is a deal has obviously yet to be reached. I think this is a situation where we just don't know enough to give much credence to any of the competing narratives (literally dozens). We're pretty sure that the PAC came in at the start of negotiations (last year) with an unreasonable number which allowed the Big-12 to get a deal done faster and they have been smashing the PR button on that point ever since. The challenge is once reality of a smaller number actually set in with GK his task shifted to convincing the universities that it's likely the best number achievable. When I crunched the numbers I saw the PAC's contract in the $25-30 Million range which is below the Big-12's media value and I think that's a true statement. The PAC's media value is actually lower than the Big-12's but there are a number of moving parts to consider. For instance the PAC "10" would likely match the Big-12's per school payout but would not have the massive media markets to build out in so overall less prospective value down the road. Expanding the PAC to San Diego and Dallas would reduce each school's payout but give the PAC somewhere to grow. The media companies are going to want looooooong contracts as they see CFB as an expanding market but with huge risks all over the place so they want safe, stable, numbers. Corporations don't like risks so they are naturally trying to hedge their bets and they know the PAC-12 network isn't a viable competitor but a net drag. I still think the best outcome is a smaller number ($25 Mil) with a shorter contract (4-5 yrs). The PAC should punt on this and focus the universities on getting serious with building their brands. Stanford and Cal might not need football but it does earn the school's money which they use for academics. Those schools need to take their football programs seriously. The Arizona schools are working with what they've got and WSU and OSU are actually doing pretty good all things considered. The PAC is a product and it's a pretty darn good one... they just need to convince football fans that PAC games are worth watching. The conference play in 2023 looks to be extremely exciting but we probably can't wait on this contract until December. Though technically the deal deadline is August of 2024...

Ironically the offenders are students... they have real consequences under the universities rules. A chant like that is actually grounds for expulsion under current school policies. The issue is who do you expel? They would need other students in the section to essentially point the finger. Honestly though, a quick video message to the student body where he explained that not only is this not ok but that it hurts the team would probably kill it. ... at least until a new crop of Freshmen come in.

Honestly, I doubt the legality of such a law and think it wouldn't survive the Oregon Supreme court. "Section 8. Freedom of speech and press. No law shall be passed restraining the free expression of opinion, or restricting the right to speak, write, or print freely on any subject whatever; but every person shall be responsible for the abuse of this right" I was at the game and couldn't understand what they said at the time. As repugnant as the chant was it would be interpreted as protected speech likely under the satire clause. If the government can't stop Nazi's from chanting white power then they don't have the power to punish dumb students from embarrassing our university. As you can read above, regardless the Oregon constitution indicates the offender is responsible for their speech and so a law imposing monetary penalties (or any other kind) on the HC or AD isn't permissible. It would be nice if legislators spent more time on promoting laws that actually benefit the state or at least don't violate the constitution.

Jamal Hill is potentially being tested out along with Bassa at the Money LB position. This makes sense as Hill doesn't quite have the top end speed four Boundary Safety but he's a really good open field tackler like Bassa. Ducks tinkering with Jamal Hill at linebacker this spring 247SPORTS.COM Ducks tinkering with Jamal Hill at linebacker this spring

That says a LOT about the source of the "leaks" that have been churning in click-bait. I think we should have a much better idea, if not definitive answer by Tuesday's meeting.

It's a 1 year contract but it Keeps Marcus in pads which is awesome. I'm excited to see the reality show that he's in as we know he's a super class act. One thing is for sure, Atlanta did a 180 on Marcus super fast and blamed him for everything short of Sherman burning the city to the ground. Marcus as a backup in a system with an actual offensive line... it should be good!

The upcoming PAC-12 meeting is the most likely point to expect the details of the media deal to be announced. All indications are that it's going to be a business as usual, nothing to see here deal that keeps the PAC together. Likely ESPN for the tier 1 games and Amazon for the streaming tier 2 games. There's also likely to be an announcement on any potential team expansion. When that drops Dodd is going to look like an idiot and there are going to be some pretty upset fans that bought into the conspiracy theories. Here is my source and no, I'm not John Canzano... Canzano: Pac-12 dominos will start falling on Tuesday - 750 The Game WWW.750THEGAME.COM If you’re a fan of a Pac-12 school, circle next Tuesday, March 21st, on your calendar. That...

My guess is his floor is #16 with the Commanders and his ceiling is #3 with the Cardinals. If I was a betting man though, I'd say #5 with the Seahawks or #6 with the Lions. Here's my dartboard: 1 - Young, Panthers 2 - Stroud, Texans 3 - Andersen, Cardinals 4 - Wilson, Colts 5 - Gonzales, Seahawks (Carter drama related, Carter should be #1)

100% agree. Burch could be a huge step up at Jack and Tysheem Johnson was a heck of a tackler and I think will be starting at Star. Jestin Jacobs is coming off surgery so it's a tough ask for him to step into the Money LB role... He's a bit big for the role anyway so I think he and Keith Brown will be Mac with Bassa playing at Money. Reason for Hope! South Carolina runs the 4-2-5 and NFL Draft Buzz grades Burch at Tackling: 78%, Pass Rush 76%, Run-D: 66%, Coverage: 73%. He needs more development at pass-rush technique but he's very capable and will have Dorlus as the End. Hopefully Dorlus improves with tackling in 2023. Reason to be reasonable... Oregon's defense doesn't currently have any obvious stand out stars to hang our hats on. That doesn't mean one can't emerge but in 2023 what we will likely be looking for is a defense that is more than the sum of it's individual parts. Reason to be worried. Who's the leader of this defense? A really good defense needs someone smart and vocal on the field able to diagnose problems and call out adjustments.

Great article! I agree that in the second year we should expect improvement from the defense. There were obvious bright spots in 2022 but consistency was a problem. With Oregon running the Saban/Smart 4-2-5 it takes time to install and get the players needed. Oregon had obvious problems with the 4-man rush and that led to issues with coverage though I felt most of the DB play was up to par honestly especially by the second half of the season. Noah Sewell is a big, talented, hard hitting LB but he's a poor fit for that 4-2-5 defense as it requires more speed in coverage. Things we as fans should expect by the very nature of running the 4-2-5 is that those quick out plays will be one of the easiest ways to attack us. That's just the nature of the scheme but last year was especially bad due to some limitations with players. Moving forward Oregon needs smart DB's and Safeties with plenty of speed and good tackling. I expect the pickups from the portal will give Oregon a few more pieces needed to execute the 4-2-5 and we should also see improved play calling one way or another. We don't need to be a top 5 defense this year but I think the goal is Oregon should be building a consistent top 25 defense to match our top 5 offense.

True, there's a lot of talent in the corner room this year.

Here's my list, I'd love to hear other thoughts. Front Four: Jack - Jordan Burch (alt. Mase Funna) Tackle - Casey Rogers Nose - Popo Aumavae End - Brandon Dorlus Inside Linebackers: Mac - Jestin Jacobs (alt. Keith Brown) Money - Jeffrey Bassa Defensive Backs: Field Corner - Trikweze Bridges (alt. Dante Manning) Field Safety - Evan Williams Star - Tysheem Johnson Boundary Safety - Jamal Hill Boundary Corner - Khyree Jackson

The answer is rarely your own... It's why I did a deep dive on the numbers to try and gauge what is real and what is fantasy in the rumor mill. Armed with that perspective I've found that the vast majority of the "news" circling the PAC right now is just click-bait. Some of the leaks are possibly aimed at controlling the direction that the PAC evolves in from outside our conference but I can't point to any single rumor and say "disinformation". The truth is I don't think we have the relevant facts to understand how this thing is evolving. I'm confidant that GK is advocating strongly for each of the universities needs in the deal but the universities don't believe the current offers are good enough yet so, "no deal yet". If one or more universities arrive at the conclusion that the potential deal isn't going to be workable they will likely exercise their options to leave. The fact that nobody has left indicates to me that no university has concluded the PAC's deal wont be workable. Does that mean the PAC will move forward with the current 10 plus additions? Not necessarily, but it does mean the rumors of its demise are certainly premature. Nothing has been decided.

How often do you see man match coverage in college? I remember something about Alabama's defense running man matched coverage and in that case wouldn't the linebacker pick up the inside leverage when the crossing route comes into his zone. Obviously that's why QB's study film to know how each defense is likely to respond to the plays.

It's actually a pretty straight forward calculation to determine what time slots games are played in. The NCAA sets requirements about when games can be played so those are the basic windows. Fox has its list of games for the coming Saturday and they have the list of competitors games. They run an algorithm that maximizes their expected viewership against the competition but the NCAA rules prevent east coast games from starting at 10PM EST so usually only west coast games (and Hawaii) are viable there. UCLA and USC are Fox's premier west coast assets so their position will be determined wherever Fox can maximize its total views. So it's a balance between the potential quality of the USC or UCLA game vs the competitors timeslots. In the end their value to the Fox contract is the 10PM EST timeslot so yes, they are going to end up playing a lot of night games. When USC play Ohio St. however that game will have a much higher total viewership and will be slotted earlier to draw views away from ESPN games.

You may be forgetting that GK is only responsible for negotiating the deal, the university presidents have to agree to it and nothing forces any of them to agree to anything. If GK comes up with a deal that Oregon doesn't like they can say "no, thanks" and leave for another conference. If GK comes up with a deal that only Oregon & Washington likes the four corners schools can say "no thanks" and leave for another conference. How this process works is that GK got input at the start from all of the universities on what they need to sign on to the PAC's media deal. His job is then to negotiate a deal on behalf of the universities that meets EVERYONE's requirements. The reason the deal is delayed isn't because GK hasn't got decent offers from Fox/ESPN, it's because the offers don't meet everyone's requirements so they wont sign it. The rumors of schools leaving are about their backup plans if the deal doesn't meet their requirements. They ALL want to stay in the PAC if they can get a deal that is amenable. If they don't then they are all willing to leave for another conference. The rumors of streaming heavy deals are most likely either trial balloons designed to gauge fan reactions or negotiating tactics to nudge Fox/ESPN. The response has mostly been negative which works in Fox/ESPN's favor and will result in a lower final number.

That's a great break down for that play, please keep them coming. I noticed that the LB's blitzed on that play so the slot had a free run through the center of the field. Without the QB pressure I assume he would have checked down to the RB in that play?

There's also now competition from Big-10 after dark on Fox, so that's going to impact the PAC's deal. You are correct though to point out that the 10PM EST timeslot is where most companies see the PACs value mostly due to very limited competition due to NCAA rules.