ESPN's - Bill Connelly's Post-Spring Adjusted SP+ Rankings

[Jon Joseph]

Bill Connelly has posted his revised rankings on ESPN+ (paywall.) He has also posted the top 10, 2023 recruiting classes, including portal pick-ups, future impact on the SP+ rankings. 

 

The SP+ algorithm focuses on three statistics - returning production, recent recruiting, and recent history.

 

Top 10

 

1. Georgia will not be tested before the November game at TN

 

2. Ohio State

 

3. Michigan

 

4. Alabama - interesting to see The Tide behind 2 B1G schools

 

5. LSU is my pick to win the SEC W in 2023

 

6. Tennessee

 

7. USC - Based on recent history?

 

8. Penn State - Can PSU win at least one of the games versus Michigan and at Ohio State?

 

9. Texas - see USC - When it comes to the final Final 4, 2nd week at Alabama is the pivotal game

 

10. FSU - the 2023 version of 2022 A+M?

 

4 SEC teams with Texas coming on board; no surprise.

 

3 B1G East teams in what is likely the last season of B1G divisions. 

 

1 Pac-12 team last seen being blown out in the conference champ game and losing the Cotton Bowl to G5 Tulane

 

1 ACC team, FSU - a team that is overrated IMO

 

Rest of the Pac-12 and other rankings of interest -

 

11. OREGON - consistent with most of the other preseason rankings SP+ has the Ducks playing Troy for the conference title.

 

14. Utah so much is riding on one guy's health. Nice 4* QB pick up yesterday

 

17. UW - SP+ is not as high on UW as most of the other rankings out there

 

24. UCLA - a breeze of an OOC schedule and no Oregon or UW in-conference

 

30. Oregon State J Smith has the Beavers on the rise.

 

Half of the conference in the top 30 is a darn good showing

 

54. CAL

 

58. Washington State

 

68. ASU - Will this be a Tempe trap game for the Ducks? 

 

70. Arizona - I do not understand why AZ is behind ASU.

 

95. Stanford - welcome aboard Coach Traylor

 

103 Colorado - Connelly notes that with all of the roster turnover CU is 'unprojectable.'

 

Others of Interest -

 

30. Texas Tech - Should be a fistfight and perhaps a shootout in Lubbock.

 

50. SMU - A nice showing for a potential Pac-10 add-on. 

 

85. SDSU - UCLA best watch out or the Bruins could be Snap Dragoned in San Diego. Also a good G5 opponent for the Beavers.

 

124. Hawaii - Surf's down?

 

SP+ 2023 recruiting rankings including portal pickups by potential future impact -

 

1. LSU Keely could be Saban's and Smart's nightmare.

 

2. Oklahoma - Will the current OK staff coach these guys up?

 

3. OREGON - A nice ranking for DL and Puddles. 

 

4. Miami - but can Mario coach these guys up? Is the Moon made of green cheese?

 

5. A+M - excellent recruiting has yet to translate to the field of play - will Petrino make a difference?

 

6. Florida - Billy Napier has yet to move the needle in Gainesville even with the #4 drafted QB.

 

7. Ohio State I think this reflects more on the Buckeyes not having to use the portal.

 

8. Auburn - it's now legal for Freeze to pay players. 

 

9. USC - not this high but for the portal. Troy will not be the B1G's lead sled dog in regard to scheduling and otherwise.

 

10. Michigan - Harbaugh is bringing in quality players to play smash-mouth football but playoff-wise he is following in Riley's o-4 footprint.

 

What's your take on Billy's computer? Spot on or epic fail?

 

 

 

 

 

[JDuck]

I'm starting to agree with you more on LSU, and not as stoked on FSU. Texass will be 8-4 at best, and I think USuC will be 10-2 or 9-3, as will the mutts.  Beevwads will be 9-3 or 8-4, and Utah without Rising will be 8-4.  sUCLA will be 8-4 at best.  Pac will rip itself at the top, a lot of good teams but more balanced records than last year, which doesn't help media deals an perception.  Tennessee won't be that good, more like 9-3 if it goes well.  Some G5 team will go 12-0 and beat a B1G team in a January 1st bowl.  I hope.

[Jon Joseph]

On 5/26/2023 at 12:26 AM, JDuck said:

I'm starting to agree with you more on LSU, and not as stoked on FSU. Texass will be 8-4 at best, and I think USuC will be 10-2 or 9-3, as will the mutts.  Beevwads will be 9-3 or 8-4, and Utah without Rising will be 8-4.  sUCLA will be 8-4 at best.  Pac will rip itself at the top, a lot of good teams but more balanced records than last year, which doesn't help media deals an perception.  Tennessee won't be that good, more like 9-3 if it goes well.  Some G5 team will go 12-0 and beat a B1G team in a January 1st bowl.  I hope.

Great take. Interesting that we live in a day and age of 9-3 being only an OK record. Of course, the ACC has and is staying with an 8 game conference schedule.

 

There is now significant doubt that the SEC conference schedule will not go to 9 conference games. 3 OOC wins for the most part in the SEC are a given. 16 teams and 8 conference games? Once again proving that today's CFB is all about the money.

 

In 2023, Alabama plays Texas and 3 donut holes. UGA's toughest OOC opponent, because the SEC canceled the Dawgs game at OK, is Georgia Tech. But there are schools like Florida that will play Utah and FSU.

 

I am hoping that come 2024 and a 12-team playoff SOS and not just W/Ls will matter to the PO committee. The difference in SOS in college sports is all over the map compared to professional sports.

 

At least CBB does take into consideration the schedule a team played but then again, gives far too much weight to the B1G conference schedule. A conference that has not won a CBB title since 2000. 

 

I agree that the Pac could go cannibal in the final year of the final 4. UCLA has the easiest conference schedule but the Bruins still have to play at OR St, USC, and Utah.