Have fun picking all sorts of scenarios.

 

I went with Oregon finishes with one conference loss to UW, but wins the P12 Championship.

 

If the Ducks do that, the machine predicts an 83% chance of making it to the CFP.

 

College Football Playoff Predictor

WWW.ESPN.COM

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With help from the Allstate Playoff Predictor, you can play out the 2023 season and see how likely it is that top contenders will reach the College Football Playoff.

 

The PAC12 absolutely dominated the out of conference schedule.

 

There is no freaking way a one loss PAC12 Champ doesn't get in without massive questions on the integrity of the selection committee/process. Especially with a round robin of all contenders.

 

17% chance of missing? No way.

 

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If the other 4 conferences have undefeated champions, then yeah the PAC 12 would miss out.  I would like to think the PAC 12 champ had played a harder schedule than the ACC or the Big 12, but the committee will look at the L column and see a 1, where as the others will have a 0.

 

However, 4 conferences having an undefeated record has not happened during the CFP existence.  We haven't even played half a season yet.  Way too much football left to play.