2024 CFB Playoff and Some Ducks Scheduling 'Quirks'

[Jon Joseph]

One question CFB fans are waiting to be answered come the final PO Committee ranking on December 8, 2024, is whether strength of schedule (SOS) will matter. Or, will PO rankings continue to be a simple matter of wins and losses regardless of the quality of the teams your team played?

 

In his latest Athletic Mailbag, Stewart Mandel provided the following example using his preseason top-25 and noting that with conference's growing in size, schedules within the conferences will have a significant difference in difficulty.

 

SP+ has ranked Florida's 2024 schedule the toughest in the land. Utah's schedule is not as yet ranked by SP+ but is outside of the top 15.

 

Florida Scheule - No. 1 Georgia, No. 3 Texas, No. 5 Ole Miss, No. 14 FSU, No. 17 Tennessee, No. 20 LSU, No. 21 TX A+M, and No. 25 Miami. Eight games vs Stewart's top-25. Six games versus the top 20. (Oregon plays 2 such games, Michigan and Ohio State.)

 

Utah Schedule - No. 10 Oklahoma State, No. 13 Arizona, and No. 24 Iowa State. Three games in Stewart's top 25, two games versus the top 20.

 

Florida finishes 9-3. Utah plays for but does not win the B12 title and finishes 11-2. There's one PO opening left, Which team do you put into the PO assuming that the Committee's final ranking matches Stewart's preseason rankings (which, of course, it will not.)

 

W/Ls only? Slam dunk for the Utes. But if the difficulty of your schedule matters, the Gators would have a heck of an argument. In 2024 and 2025, before the PO is likely restructured comes 2026, you can bet the B1G Commissioner Tony Petitti and SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey will be paying close attention to how the Committee answers the SOS question.

 

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OBD - Behind the 8 Ball in 2024. It has already been noted that Oregon is the only Power 4 team in 2024 that will play eight games in a row vs. Power 4 opponents (all B1G teams) without an idle week. 

 

9/21 - In addition to the time off, Oregon should benefit from its first Off Week falling on Week 4, the week before Oregon opens B1G play in LA vs. UCLA. Why? Because in Week 4 the Bruins will be battling the LSU Bayou Bengals in Baton Rogue. Tough trip before drawing the Ducks.

 

In 29 days in 2024, Oregon will travel a total of 13,444 miles, including the return trips, to W. Lafayette, Indiana to play Purdue, Ann Arbor, Michigan to play Michigan, and Madison, Wisconsin, to play the Wisconsin Badgers. 

 

10/19 - At Purdue - This game that has 'Trap' written all over it. Why? Because it's the game after Oregon plays Ohio State in Autzen. The week before this game find the Boilermakers playing the nearby Illinois Illini. OK, this is just the 'rub of the green.'

 

11/2 - At Michigan - Game No. 6 in the 8-game gauntlet finds Oregon coming off a home game vs. Illinois with Michigan playing Michigan State in Ann Arbor. Nothing amiss here, Michigan will be up to play Oregon after any game except perhaps, vs. Ohio State.

 

11/9 - Maryland - Game No. 7 in the 8-game gauntlet. Puddles gets to fly home which is nice. The rub? Maryland has the week off before playing an Oregon team that may find it difficult to focus on Maryland after playing Michigan in the B1G House in one of the biggest games of the season.

 

11/16 - At Wisconsin - Game No. 8 in the 8-game gauntlet finds Oregon turning around and heading back East for a game on what is likely to be a cold day in Madison vs. the Badgers. Fine, eh? This is what Oregon signed up for.

 

However, like opponent Maryland, Wisconsin has the Week Off before playing the Ducks. Two opponents in a row napping the week before they play Oregon? One might think that Oregon is The New Kid on the Block trying to make it with the In Crowd. Right?

 

Behind the 8-Ball 2? Oregon will play seven home games in 2024. Chief rivals for the B1G Prize, Michigan, and Ohio State, play eight home games.

 

Thank you B1G Powers-That-Be for an Off Week the penultimate week of the regular season. Ditto for UW before the rivalry game. 

 

Bring It On!