Bill Connolly's ESPN Post-Spring SP+ Rankings Are Out

[Jon Joseph]

Connolly's SP+ rankings release is posted on ESPN+, a pay site. SP+ is a ranking of 134 FBS program's odds of success in winning a game vs an FBS opponent.  The rankings take into consideration a team's returning production, recruiting over this and the prior three seasons including transfers brought in from the portal, and recent history in the prior four seasons. SP+ is a good predictive model, a better model than ESPN's Football Power Index.

 

The top 12 - 1. Georgia/ 2. Ohio State/ 3. OREGON/ 4. Texas/ 5. Alabama/ 6. Michigan/ 7. Penn State/ 8. Ole Miss/ 9. LSU/ 10. Notre Dame/ 11. Missouri/ 12. Florida State.

 

We have a good discussion going elsewhere on OBD about Oregon's chances of finishing 12-0 in the regular season. The following are the SP+ rankings of Oregon's 2024 opponents.

 

Idaho - FCS - Not ranked - 4th seed in the 2023-24 FCS playoffs.

 

Boise State - 38 - Top-ranked G5 school.

 

At Oregon State - 55

 

Idle

 

At UCLA - 26 - The week that Oregon is idle the Bruins play at No. 9 LSU.

 

Michigan State - 82

 

Ohio State - No. 2 - The week before playing the Ducks in Autzen the Buckeyes play a home game vs 22 Iowa

 

At Purdue - 72

 

Illinois - 66

 

At Michigan - No. 6

 

Maryland - 44 - Maryland is idle the week before playing in Eugene. 

 

At Wisconsin - 27 - November 16 in Madison, Wisconsin will be chilly.

 

Idle

 

Washington - 35 - Close to no returning production for the Huskies. 

 

The schedule is made more difficult by being the only Power 4 team to play eight games in a row in 2024 without an idle week. Four of the games will be on the road: UCLA; Purdue; Michigan; and Wisconsin.

 

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The 2024-25 SP+ Playoff Field.

 

1. Georgia - SEC vs. 9. Penn State at 8. Michigan (Not a rematch but will the committee try to avoid conference member matchups in the first round?)

 

4. Kansas State - B12 - ranked 17 by SP+ vs. 12. Boise State - G5 - ranked 38 by SP+ at 5. Oregon. Oregon is ranked No. 3 by SP+. (This would be a rematch of a regular season game.)

 

[Note- Boise and K State knock out No. 10 Notre Dame and No. 11 Missouri. This will not make fans in South Bend and SEC Commish Sankey happy. But Sankey and the then Notre Dame AD were two of the four people who designed this format. I like this possible furor as bumping lower-ranked teams ahead of higher-ranked teams is not the way a post-season tournament should be structured.]

 

2. Ohio State - B1G - vs No. 10 Ole Miss at No. 7 Alabama - (These two teams do not meet in the regular season.)

 

3. FSU - ACC - ranked No. 12 by SP+ vs. 11. LSU at 6.Texas. - (This would be another first-round conference matchup but not a rematch.)

 

I and likely no one else, have an idea of how the playoff committee will handle rematches and conference vs conference members 1st round games. 

 

Five SEC teams. and four B1G teams in the field (75%) make rematches and conference vs conference 1st round games odds-on.

 

One ACC, B12, and Mountain West team. The ACC implodes and Notre Dame, Clemson, Miami, UNC, and possibly UVA, VA Tech, NC State, and Louisville join one of the Power 2 conferences, the only reason to include the reconstructed ACC, B12, and G5 in the playoff will be to keep the politicians and lawyers at bay. 

 

Vanquish the Vandals!