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Jon Joseph

2024-25 Key Dates and a Playoff Field and Seeding Guess

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COLLEGEFOOTBALLPLAYOFF.COM

College Football Playoff Announces 2024-25 Kick Times and Broadcast Schedule for 2024-25 Playoff on ESPN and TNT Sports

 

The above posting shows the critical dates for the 2024-25 College Football 12-Team Playoff.

 

The Playoff Committee will release the Playoff field and seeding on December 8, 2024, the day after conference champ games are concluded. The B1G and the SEC will play their champ games on December 7, 2024. 

 

The Playoff's top four-seeded teams will consist of the four highest-ranked conference champions. The fifth-highest-ranked conference champion will also be in the field in addition to seven at-large teams as ranked by the Committee. 

 

The B1G and the SEC champs will likely be seeded No. 1 and 2. The ACC and B12 champs will likely be seeded No. 3 and 4. The highest-ranked Group of 5 teams (G5) will likely be seeded 12th.

 

The top 4-seeds will have a 1st round bye and will have to win three games to win the Playoff title. Teams seeded 5-12 will have to win four games to win the championship. 

 

The first playoff game will be contested on the home field of a team seeded 5 through 8 on Friday, December 20th, 2024. The three other first-round games will be played on the home fields of the higher-seeded teams on Saturday, December 21st. A much shorter interval between Selection Sunday and the 1st-round games than with a 4-team playoff. 

 

The Fiesta Bowl will host a quarter-final game on Tuesday, December 31, 2024, with kickoff set for 4 PM Pacific time. (All other times are also Pacific.)

 

The Peach Bowl, Rose Bowl, and Sugar Bowl quarter-final games will be played on January 1, 2025, at 10 AM, 2 PM, and 5 PM respectively. 

 

I have seen a good deal of confusion as to what bowl game a conference champion will play in. Unlike the 4-team playoff, the two highest-seeded teams will not have their choice of bowls in which to participate. 

 

The B1G champion will be in the Rose Bowl. The SEC champion in the Sugar Bowl. The ACC champion in the Peach Bowl*, and the B12 champion in the Fiesta Bowl. (See a possible exception for the ACC and B12 champs below.) For example, if Georgia is the No.. 1 seed, it will not have the choice of playing in the Peach Bowl in Atlanta. The Dawgs will play in the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans. 

 

Now that that's been straightened out (kind of,) the semi-final games will be played on Thursday, January 9, 2025, in the Orange Bowl kicking off at 4:30 PM, and on Friday, January 10, 2025, in the Cotton Bowl at 4:30 PM. The highest-ranked team advancing to the semi-finals will have the choice of playing in the Orange or the Cotton Bowl. (I know, this is like three blind mice trying to describe an elephant!)

 

The title game will be played on Monday, January 20, 2025, at 4:30 PM in Atlanta. This is a long grind for the teams that play in a 1st-round game a month earlier.

 

[OBD friends, HELP! I have tried every way my tech-challenged person can come up with and I cannot find the date in August when the AP will release its 2024 preseason Top 25.]

 

While not dispositive the Preseason AP Poll, which will be released sometime between the Ides (singular, when a full moon occurred in a given month in Rome, usually the 15th) of August and Kalends ( the date of a new moon in Rome, usually on the 1st) of September, has been very good at ranking the ultimate champion. From 2014 through 2022, the No. 1 team in the AP Poll made the 4-team playoff seven out of eight seasons. No. 1 Ohio State in 2025 was the odd man out. Teams ranked No. 1 to No. 8 in the preseason combined for 28 of the 36 4-team playoff games.

 

In the 2023 preseason, in the preseason the AP Poll ranked Georgia No. 1, Michigan No. 2, Ohio State No. 3, and Alabama 4th. UW was ranked 10th and Texas 11th.

 

This would be the playoff field using the College Football News and Clutch Points guess at the AP Top 25.

 

Sugar Bowl - No. 1 Georgia vs. 9. Notre Dame at 8. Ole Miss

 

Fiesta Bowl - No. 4 Utah vs. 12. Boise State at 5. Texas

 

............................................................................................................

 

Rose Bowl - No. 2 Ohio State vs. 10. Michigan at 7. Alabama

 

Orange Bowl - 3. Florida State vs. 11. Penn State at 6. OREGON

 

Note - And as noted above, the Rose and Sugar bowls are locked into the B1G and the SEC champs. The Orange Bowl traditionally hosted the ACC champ but is a semi-final site this year. Thus, if Cal won the ACC (😍) and West Virginia won the B12, the Committee would send the Golden Bears to the Fiesta Bowl and the Mountaineers to the *Peach Bowl. (Sorry, but I did not design this goobly-gook. In fairness when the format was designed there was a Power 5 with only the B1G and the B12 expected to extend from sea to shining sea,)

 

Being seeded 5th is much better than being seeded 6th.  In general, the above playoff field is not kind to the B1G and is most kind to the SEC. Texas, Alabama, and Ole Miss would host 1st-round games. Unlike Penn State at Oregon, there would be no 1st-round games between SEC teams,

 

This format will lead to many disgruntled fan bases. and we will see format changes in 2026-27. Especially if Texas defeats the G5 representative in Austin, then defeats an underdog B12  champion in 'Phoenix,' and then plays its semifinal game in the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. Georgia could play in New Orleans, then Miami, and then Atlanta. 

 

Once the AP folks speak, I will update the playoff projections and continue to do so with the AP, followed by the Committee's first and subsequent rankings up to December 3, 2024.

 

Let's Play Ball!

Edited by Jon Joseph
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How many games will Michigan have to win in 2024 to be a playoff team?

 

GBMWOLVERINE.COM

The 2024 college football season is going to be the first that features the 12-team playoff. As far as Michigan footballfourth is concerned, that provides a gre

 

Maize and Brew make a guess here but until we receive data from the PO Committee the answer is 'Who knows?'

 

Let's take a look at a couple of M + M's. Sports Illustrated (SI) ranks Michigan as having the 10th most difficult schedule in the nation in 2024. SI ranks Missouri's schedule as the 127th most difficult. 

 

Mizzou will play Two, Dos, II, Due, teams in 2024 that won eight or more games in 2023. Oklahoma in CoMo, and Alabama in Tuscaloosa. 

 

Michigan will play seven teams with eight or more wins in 2023, including two of 2023-24's playoff participants. Fresno State, App State (what could go wrong?), Texas, USC, UW, OREGON, and Ohio State. 

 

It's down to 10-2 Mizzou, with a loss to Bama, OK, or both, and 9-3 Michigan for the 7th at-large spot in the playoff. Playoff Committee, which team gets the nod? 

 

December 8, 2024, could become a second Day of Infamy for college football fans. 

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The Saturday Down South PO prediction.

 

WWW.SATURDAYDOWNSOUTH.COM

The Irish might have the most favorable Playoff path among the contenders.

 

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