Jon Joseph Moderator No. 1 Share Posted August 1 In the 2024-25 Playoff (PO) if the Ducks do not win the B1G, OBD fans should hope for the Committee to rank Oregon No. 3, behind the B1G and SEC champs likely to be PO seeded first and second. Being ranked third, with the ACC and B12 champs guaranteed, no matter their PO Committee ranking, a Top Four seed, and a 1st round bye results in a PO 5 seed for the PO Committee's 3rd ranked team. Why this mishmash? When this format was designed, college football (CFB) had five power conferences (offense intended, Pac-2), and a unanimous vote was required from the Power 5 and six G5 conferences and Notre Dame (?) to approve the PO format. The 5th-ranked champion is guaranteed a PO invitation to gain the G5s' approval. We have to live with 'this' for two seasons. The format will change in 2026-27. In many preseason polls, Oregon and Texas alternate between being ranked No. 3 or No. 4. Below are seven examples of why being ranked No. 3 trumps No.4. (The number below before a team is how a team would be seeded extrapolating a team's ranking to its PO seeding. SIGH.) Saturday Down South: 12. Memphis at No. 5 Texas 11. Utah at No. 6 OREGON USA Today: 12 G5 at No. 5 Texas (No G5 team in top 25.) 11 Missouri at No. 6 OREGON ESPN SP+: 12 Boise State at No. 5 OREGON 11 LSU at No. 6 Texas Phil Steele: 12 G5 at No. 5 OREGON 11 Ole Miss at No. 6 Texas 247 Sports: 12 G5 at No. 5 Texas 11 Penn State at No. 6 OREGON - With the winner to play Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. Sporting News Composite: 12 G5 at No. 5 Texas 11 Michigan at No. 6 OREGON This would be another all-B1G bracket with the winner off to Pasadena. ESPN Bet: In this example, let's look at the entire 12-team field. SUGAR BOWL - No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 9 LSU at No. 8 Ole Miss FIESTA BOWL - No. 4 Utah vs. 12 Boise State at No. 5 OREGON ROSE BOWL - No. 2 Ohio State vs. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Alabama PEACH BOWL - No. 3 Florida State vs. 11 Penn State at No. 6 Texas ESPN Bet would give us an all-SEC bracket. The PO Committee insists it will not rank to avoid first-round rematches or to limit conference vs conference first-round games, but we'll see, eh? A No.5 seed would give Oregon a home game vs. the G5 representative, instead of hosting Utah, Mizzou, Penn State, or Michigan. In this example, as with many preseason top 25 rankings, SEC teams would host three of the four first-round games. This is in addition to four of the six bowl sites being in Dixie and the Champ game played in Atlanta this season and in Miami next season. The first two teams knocked out in the ESPN Bet field would be Michigan and Missouri, each with +3500 odds to win the inaugural 12-team title. The Wolverines and the CoMo Tigers would be knocked out by Utah at +6000 and Boise State at +40000. Regarding the PO format being changed come 2026-27, in anticipation of the SEC and B1G furor, I hereby rest my case. Let's hope the Ducks win the B1G title and play the 16th game of the season and not the 17th game, in Atlanta on January 20, 2025. 1 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
JabbaNoBargain No. 2 Share Posted August 1 (edited) Great rundown! Be interesting to see how much the committee manipulates their own rankings to fit their bracket…as I understand it, the rankings aren’t determined by a third party. The only thing they can’t manipulate is conference champs, which I suppose was the point originally. Edited August 1 by JabbaNoBargain 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solar No. 3 Share Posted August 1 I think the primary goal of the regular season for the Ducks is to play in the conference championship as that will get you through the first round one way or the other. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Author Moderator No. 4 Share Posted August 1 On 8/1/2024 at 2:31 PM, Solar said: I think the primary goal of the regular season for the Ducks is to play in the conference championship as that will get you through the first round one way or the other. Solar, I'm not certain about the conference champ game if you don't win it, helping or hurting? A 10-2 Oregon is almost certainly in the 12-team field with a good chance of hosting a home game as the 7th or 8th seed. A 10-3 Oregon? No one including the Committee itself, has any idea of how the Committee will treat conference champ gamers. Will a 10-2 Notre Dame trump a 10-3 conference champ game loser? How much emphasis will the Committee place on strength-of-schedule? Just two of the 12-team playoff unanswered questions. So many unknowns which is why come 2026-27 the B1G and SEC floated the idea of a 14-team field with the B1G and SEC champs having 1st round byes and a minimum of 4 teams from both Power 2 conferences in the field. The Lesser 2 and the 'We need you in to avoid litigation' G5 pushed back. But 2 seasons of a lower-seeded Lesser 2 champ(s) and a G5 representative knocking out a B1G and/or SEC team(s) will make the Power 2 more adamant about dictating the format of the playoff from 2026-27 to 2031-32 when the ESPN broadcast deal expires. As much as the Power 2 will be motivated to change the format, ESPN will be equally incented to have the most eyes-on-the-prize games and not the blowout we witnessed in last season's Fiesta Bowl. If this chaffs college football traditionalists; well, the NFL does not invite The Canadian League, USFL, and Arena Leagues to join in the postseason. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Author Moderator No. 5 Share Posted August 1 CBS Sports ranks OBD No. 3 in its preseason poll of No. 1 Georgia through 134 UL- Monroe. College football rankings: Georgia repeats at No. 1 as SEC, Big Ten dominate top of Preseason CBS Sports 134 - CBSSports.com WWW.CBSSPORTS.COM Familiar names are atop the rankings as the 2024 college football season approaches Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
JabbaNoBargain No. 6 Share Posted August 1 It’s interesting seeing it play out in the video game. I simmed a season where OBD finished 10-2, ranked #11, and got bupkis. The outcome in that scenario with what is left of the bowls not linked to the playoff isn’t pretty. I think we were slotted into the CarCare Bowl or some such nonsense Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duckley Palace No. 7 Share Posted August 1 Conference Championship Games are going to matter again!!! Imagine Georgia vs Texas Oregon vs Ohio State. Florida State vs Miami. Utah vs Kansas State. These will be playoff games , but more importantly for Oregon, Texas, and Utah. These will be chances to make a statement their first years in their new homes. Seeing the Rose Bowl, Orange Bowl, Sugar, Fiesta, Peach, and Cotton mean something every year is awesome as well. Does the PAC hold a game at the YMCA, or do they just hold hands in unity and hope for more handouts as they preach "Unity!!"? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Author Moderator No. 8 Share Posted August 2 Huzzah! Athlon provides us access to an ESPN+ Paywall article. Although the author beefs about it, ESPN FPI has Oregon with the second-best odds of making the 2024 playoff, 76%, and decent odds of winning it all at 12.8%. Well worth a read. 11 Florida State would represent the ACC. 15 Kansas the B12. 22 Boise State the G5. The first two out are Oklahoma and Michigan. https://athlonsports.com/college/oregon-ducks/espn-fpi-predicts-oregon-ducks-best-big-ten-chances-national-championship Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoGaDawg No. 9 Share Posted August 3 (edited) Very interesting rundown @Jon Joseph I’m excited to see how this will play out in CFB’s first 12 team Playoff. I’m sure we will see a few matchups that don’t measure up, but that’s likely going to be unavoidable most seasons. Yet, at the very least, these unattractive matchups do bring with them at least the potential for a huge upset! That’s usually fun so long as it isn’t your team that gets upset. I do have high hopes and believe that we will be treated to some really great CFB in our first 12 team Playoff. I’m extremely excited to watch what will happen! Edited August 3 by SoGaDawg 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Author Moderator No. 10 Share Posted August 5 Please, give this man an AMEN! Not you Notre Dame. The Domers have one of the easiest "P4" schedules in 2024 and 12 games and not the 13 that P4 champs and runner-ups will play. College Football's best and worst schedules for success BAMAHAMMER.COM All college football fans know that schedules impact the success or failure of a season. Debates rage for months about the strength of schedules (SOS). Debates If the CFB PO Committee does not factor in the strength of a team's schedule; well, give me Playoff death over giving a bid to a 13-0, no P4 team on the schedule in back-to-back seasons, Liberty. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
