30Duck Moderator No. 1 Share Posted December 24, 2024 From Saturday Tradition No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Oregon — Quarterfinal, Jan. 1 (Rose Bowl) Ohio State -2.5 | Total: 54.5 | Moneyline: Ohio State -135, Oregon +114 To be completely honest, I didn’t expect Ohio State to be here. I discounted 2 things I probably shouldn’t have in the Buckeyes’ game against the Vols. The first was that Ohio State couldn’t do what it did coming off the Michigan loss in 2022 because Will Howard is not CJ Stroud. That didn’t matter at all. Howard played the game of his life and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly completely opened things up for him to take downfield shots. The Buckeyes just breezed through the Tennessee secondary in the first half, en route to a 21-0 lead in what felt like the blink of an eye. The second was that Tennessee could actually hurt the Buckeyes with its pass game. Dylan Sampson was never really available and the ground game suffered. Then Tennessee’s first- and third-leading receivers left the lineup and the Vols just fizzled out. The first quarter was a comprehensive beatdown because of Howard but also because of the Buckeye defense. They mauled Tennessee at the line of scrimmage. Nico Iamaleava didn’t complete a first-quarter pass and the Vols ended the opening 15 minutes with 16 yards of offense. Ohio State emphatically answered the “how would it respond” question that had been beating down the walls of the Woody Hayes Athletic Center for weeks. Now it gets a rematch with Oregon, the clear-cut best team from the regular season and a team Ohio State lost to by 1 point on the road. Howard was great that day too, completing 28 of his 35 passes for 326 yards, scoring 3 touchdowns while not turning the ball over, and posting a 95.1 QBR. The difference that day was a pass interference call and a second lost because Howard didn’t slide in time to set up a potential game-winning field goal. But Oregon was also without its best pass-rusher in the game. The Ducks gained almost 500 yards of offense and Ohio State rarely sniffed quarterback Dillon Gabriel. As a result, Gabriel picked apart the Buckeye secondary. It would seem the gap between Iamaleava and Gabriel is quite large. Oregon’s receivers are also better than Tennessee’s to an almost absurd degree. Assuming the Ducks don’t lose their best tailback after 2 carries, Ohio State isn’t likely to shut this offense down the way it did Tennessee’s. The Buckeyes also fed off the energy in Ohio Stadium and now they have to go cross-country to play in a much less friendly environment. I do wonder how much energy it took to do what Ohio State did in the first round, and if this game highlights the advantage of grabbing 1 of those first-round byes. Bet Oregon +2.5 (-108 via DraftKings) 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maebee No. 2 Share Posted December 24, 2024 Great analysis (learned a few points that I hadn’t seen in the way too many “expert” opinions I’ve read). That said I have to respectfully disagree on the difference being the PI call and Howard’s slide. The game had many ebbs and flows and l’d say the non credited interception (by OBD) was at least if not more impactful than anything else. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
30Duck Author Moderator No. 3 Share Posted December 24, 2024 On 12/24/2024 at 1:25 PM, Maebee said: That said I have to respectfully disagree on the difference being the PI call and Howard’s slide Completely agree. It was OPI, and just too late on Howard's slide. What about the INT that wasn't? There hasn't been an INT call that bad since Harris against Auburn. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 4 Share Posted December 24, 2024 Thank you, 30, great take. The problem with dogging Ohio State? tOSU's O has been inconsistent but the D has been consistent and the best in CFB. OBD is the only team that put up more than 17 points on Ohio State this season. In front of an insane group of Ducks fanatics, OBD won by one point. Yes, OBD left points on the board, and so did Ohio State. OBD will not have the same home field and fan support in Pasadena. DUH! The Ohio State D will travel. Hopefully, the Ducks D we saw vs. Penn State will not travel. PSU does not have the WRs to win a shootout with Oregon. Ohio State has the skill at WR to go score for score. IMO the game will come down to which Will Howard shows up. The Howard who played in Eugene and against the Vols or the Howard who played against Nebraska and Michigan. If it's the former, the game will go down to the wire, just as we witnessed in Eugene. The sluggish Buckeyes team that played against Michigan was nowhere to be seen Saturday night. That was a focused football team with a ton of talent. This tOSU team will be heading west with momentum and revenge on the mind. Come On Ducks! Win the Day! 1 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 5 Share Posted December 24, 2024 FWIW (not much ) my betting buddies and I are down on the Ducks +114 Money Line. It is rare indeed to get the No. 1 team in the country at Plus Odds. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
