30Duck Ā Ā Moderator Ā No.Ā 1 Share Posted December 24, 2024 From Saturday Tradition No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Oregon ā Quarterfinal, Jan. 1 (Rose Bowl) Ohio State -2.5 | Total: 54.5 | Moneyline: Ohio State -135, Oregon +114 To be completely honest, I didnāt expect Ohio State to be here. I discounted 2 things I probably shouldnāt have in the Buckeyesā game against the Vols. The first was that Ohio State couldnāt do what it did coming off the Michigan loss in 2022 because Will Howard is not CJ Stroud. That didnāt matter at all. Howard played the game of his life and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly completely opened things up for him to take downfield shots. The Buckeyes just breezed through the Tennessee secondary in the first half, en route to a 21-0 lead in what felt like the blink of an eye. Ā The second was that Tennessee could actually hurt the Buckeyes with its pass game. Dylan Sampson was never really available and the ground game suffered. Then Tennesseeās first- and third-leading receivers left the lineup and the Vols just fizzled out. The first quarter was a comprehensive beatdown because of Howard but also because of the Buckeye defense. They mauled Tennessee at the line of scrimmage. Nico Iamaleava didnāt complete a first-quarter pass and the Vols ended the opening 15 minutes with 16 yards of offense. Ā Ohio State emphatically answered the āhow would it respondā question that had been beating down the walls of the Woody Hayes Athletic Center for weeks. Ā Now it gets a rematch with Oregon, the clear-cut best team from the regular season and a team Ohio State lost to by 1 point on the road. Howard was great that day too, completing 28 of his 35 passes for 326 yards, scoring 3 touchdowns while not turning the ball over, and posting a 95.1 QBR. The difference that day was a pass interference call and a second lost because Howard didnāt slide in time to set up a potential game-winning field goal. But Oregon was also without its best pass-rusher in the game. The Ducks gained almost 500 yards of offense and Ohio State rarely sniffed quarterback Dillon Gabriel. As a result, Gabriel picked apart the Buckeye secondary. Ā It would seem the gap between Iamaleava and Gabriel is quite large. Oregonās receivers are also better than Tennesseeās to an almost absurd degree. Assuming the Ducks donāt lose their best tailback after 2 carries, Ohio State isnāt likely to shut this offense down the way it did Tennesseeās. The Buckeyes also fed off the energy in Ohio Stadium and now they have to go cross-country to play in a much less friendly environment. I do wonder how much energy it took to do what Ohio State did in the first round, and if this game highlights the advantage of grabbing 1 of those first-round byes. Ā Bet Oregon +2.5 (-108 viaĀ DraftKings) 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maebee Ā Ā Ā No.Ā 2 Share Posted December 24, 2024 Great analysis (learned a few points that I hadnāt seen in the way too many āexpertā opinions Iāve read). That said I have to respectfully disagree on the difference being the PI call and Howardās slide. The game had many ebbs and flows and lād say the non credited interception (by OBD) was at least if not more impactful than anything else. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
30Duck Ā Ā Author Moderator Ā No.Ā 3 Share Posted December 24, 2024 On 12/24/2024 at 1:25 PM, Maebee said: That said I have to respectfully disagree on the difference being the PI call and Howardās slide Completely agree. It was OPI, and just too late on Howard's slide. What about the INT that wasn't? There hasn't been an INT call that bad since Harris against Auburn.Ā 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Ā Ā Moderator Ā No.Ā 4 Share Posted December 24, 2024 Thank you, 30, great take. Ā The problem with dogging Ohio State? tOSU's O has been inconsistent but the D has been consistent and the best in CFB. OBD is the only team that put up more than 17 points on Ohio State this season. Ā In front of an insane group of Ducks fanatics, OBD won by one point. Yes, OBD left points on the board, and so did Ohio State.Ā Ā OBD will not have the same home field and fan support in Pasadena. DUH! The Ohio State D will travel. Hopefully, the Ducks D we saw vs. Penn State will not travel. PSU does not have the WRs to win a shootout with Oregon. Ohio State has the skill at WR to go score for score. Ā IMO the game will come down to which Will Howard shows up. The Howard who played in Eugene and against the Vols or the Howard who played against Nebraska and Michigan.Ā If it's the former, the game will go down to the wire, just as we witnessed in Eugene.Ā Ā The sluggish Buckeyes team that played against Michigan was nowhere to be seen Saturday night. That was a focused football team with a ton of talent. This tOSU team will be heading west with momentum and revenge on the mind.Ā Ā Come On Ducks! Win the Day! 1 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Ā Ā Moderator Ā No.Ā 5 Share Posted December 24, 2024 FWIW (not much ) my betting buddies and I are down on the Ducks +114 Money Line.Ā Ā It is rare indeed to get the No. 1 team in the country at Plus Odds.Ā Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
