As Forum Friend Mike Whitty noted in his excellent article on how to balance the Big Ten conference schedules, posted on February 19, 2026, in-conference schedules in today's college football mega-conferences vary significantly from season to season.

With 18, 17, and 16-team Power 4 conferences playing nine-game conference schedules, a team's conference strength of schedule (SOS) from season to season is based on the luck of the draw.

For example, in 2026, USC plays the three teams the B1G sent to last season's playoff: Indiana, Ohio State, and Oregon. Wisconsin misses all three playoff teams.

With the year-to-year roster turnover in college football (CFB) that is exacerbated by today's transfer portal, I have no better idea how to balance CFB schedules beyond the ideas considered by Mike and those who commented on Mike's article.

I am the first to acknowledge that evaluating SOS in the preseason is a complete crap shoot. You can load your prediction dice with all kinds of information from yesterday, but at the end of the season, you are as likely to roll snake eyes as you are a 7 or 11.

With that said, my Big Ten 2026 SOS calculus breaks the conference into five tiers, five tiers based on The Sporting News preseason top 25 composite rankings.

The preseason top 25 predictions used in the composite: The Sporting News (TSN), Athlon, The Athletic, Bleacher Report, CBS Sports, ESPN, Sports Illustrated, Yahoo Sports, and On3.

Nine B1G teams are in TSN's top 25, including Others Receiving Votes, No. 30 Illinois. I used last season's results to rank the rest of the B1G teams. I only analyzed the schedules of the nine teams ranked by TSN, but you never know when an Indiana will arise or when a Penn State might crater.

Tier 1 - 1. Ohio State - TSN No. 1 / 2. Indiana - TSN No. 4 / 3. Oregon - TSN No. 5

Tier 2 - 4. USC - TSN 13 / 5. Michigan - TSN 14

Tier 3 - 6. Penn State - TSN 20 / 7. Iowa - TSN 21 / 8. Washington - TSN 22

9. Illinois - TSN 30.

Tier 4 - 10. Minnesota / 11. Northwestern / 12 Nebraska. Not ranked by TSN

Finished 2025 with a winning record and qualified for bowl games.

Tier 5 - 13. UCLA / 14. Wisconsin / 15. Rutgers / 16. Michigan State

17. Maryland / 18 Purdue

Using these tiers, I ranked the top nine teams. I adjusted an opponent's ranking by minus .5 if the game was on the road.

EXAMPLE using OBD's schedule - At USC 1.5, UCLA 5, Nebraska 4, at Illinois 2.5, Northwestern 4, at Ohio State 0.5, Michigan 2, at Michigan State 4.5, Washington 3.

TOTAL - 27

The number of home games and whether a team plays five or 4 conference games at home or on the road (5/4 or 4/5) are not included in the SOS calculus. Neither are factors such as Oregon being the only Big Ten team playing eight conference games without a break, including playing two of the eight on the road in November.

For conference championship purposes, whether a team plays five or four conference games at home matters and is factored in by giving more weight to conference away games.

I have neither the brain nor the computer power to add nuance beyond home and away games to the below rankings.

From a playoff overall record POV, with 8 home games and a 5/4 conference split, Michigan and Illinois have an advantage.

With 8 home games, a 5/4 split, and no Power 4 opponent OOC, Indiana is looking good to repeat as the conference champion, making the playoff for the third season in a row, and earning back-to-back playoff 1st round byes.

And Indiana is the only one of eight teams with a first-round playoff bye to win its second-round game, and did so while coming up Roses and turning the Crimson Tide into a leaky faucet.

SOS Rankings - The lower the number, the more difficult the schedule.

1. Ohio State - 23.5 - Plus, at TSN No. 2 Texas - 7 Home Games - 5/4

2. Washington -25.5 - No OOC Power 4 opponent - 7 Home - 4/5

3. Michigan - 26 - Plus, No. 10 Oklahoma - 8 Home - 5/4

4. Oregon - 27 - Plus, Mountain West champion Boise State, and at Oklahoma State - 7 Home - 5/4

5. USC - 27.5 - With a game to be determined, no OOC Power 4 opponent

TBD Home - 4/5

6. Indiana - 28 - No OOC Power 4 opponent - 8 Home - 5/4

7. Illinois - 30 - Plus, Not Ranked (NR) Duke - 8 Home - 5/4

8. Iowa - 33 - Plus, NR Iowa State - 7 Home - 4/5

9. Penn State - 34 - No OOC P4 opponent - 8 Home - 4/5

Ohio State is No. 1 in the TSN rankings, but the Buckeyes' schedule in and out of conference in 2026 is more demanding than when it finished 12-0 in the 2025 regular season.

Indiana plays Ohio State in Bloomington. Oregon flies to Columbus to play Ohio State.

I think No. 4-ranked Indiana has the best path to a repeat conference championship. If QB Hoover can play anywhere near the level of Heisman winner Mendoza, watch out for the Hoo, Hoo, Hoosiers.

BEAT BOISE!

As bad as the Ducks played in the Peach Bowl, Ohio State versus the No.10 seed played as badly, if not worse, in the Cotton Bowl.

Ohio State has a more difficult schedule in 2026 than it did when it went 12-0 before losing back-to-back games against Indiana and Miami.

The Buckeyes did not play Indiana and Oregon in the 2025 regular season. Both teams are on the Ohio State schedule this season. And with Arch Manning as the starter for the second season, a Week 2 game versus Texas in Austin will be more of a challenge than last season's Week 1 opener in Columbus.

Ryan Day has many wins and a Natty. But if he had the talent Day had last season, I think Urban Meyer wins a B1G title, and TOSU repeats as the National Champion.

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