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FanDuel Power 4 Win Totals Are Out - What Do The Totals Tell Us About the 2026 Season?

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  • Moderator
No.

FanDuel has released its 2026 Power 4 Regular Season Win Total rankings, with odds set for a team going Over or Under the total.

Preseason college football (CFB) rankings are ubiquitous. And why not when the source of a ranking has no skin in the game? FanDuel has skin in the game.

In 2025, predicting that Penn State, Texas, and Clemson would win 10.5 games and finish in the top-5 cost the experts nothing but a mea culpa, we'll try better next season.

If you bet the Under on these three on FanDuel, FanDuel did not have to say 'sorry,' FanDuel had to show you the money.

Is there anything to be gleaned by taking a deeper look at the win totals? Maybe, but we won't know for certain until the final CFB Committee ranking on December 6, 2026. With that in mind ...

[Rankings below are from The Sporting News 2026 composite Top 25, plus other teams ranked in the top 30.]

No. 6 Notre Dame and No. 7 Texas Tech are at the top of the ranking with 11.5 wins. And why not?

The Irish and the Red Raiders' 2026 schedules are not merely manageable; they're an outright, LOL, jest. Both teams will be favored in all 12 regular-season games.

Yes, Texas Tech has a tough out-of-conference (OOC) game at the reinvented Pac-12's Oregon State, but the only ranked team Texas Tech has on the schedule is No. 23 Houston. The Raiders play the Cougars in Buddy Holly country.

24 Power 4 teams won five or fewer games in 2025. Notre Dame plays seven of these losers plus a side order of 5-7 Rice. The Domers play 2025 9-2 Navy in Foxborough, Massachusetts, close to a few Irish folk and fans in Boston.

The Irish have a modest 82-13-1 lead in the long-running series vs. the Midshipmen.

Notre Dame does play 10.5 wins, No. 9 Miami, and 8.5 wins, No. 17 SMU. Both games are in South Bend. Since 2021, Notre Dame is 12-0 against the ACC in games played in front of the TD Man, and 34-7 all-time vs. the ACC.

On the road against No. 11 BYU, 8.5 wins, could be a tough game, but with a distinct roster advantage, Notre Dame will be favored.

In addition to Miami, two teams come in at 10.5 wins: No. 4 Indiana and No. 5 Oregon.

The Big Ten team with the most difficult schedule in 2026, No. 1 Ohio State, and the team with one of the easiest schedules, No. 20 Penn State, have an Over of 9.5 games.

Indiana, Ohio State, and Oregon all have difficult schedules:

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/2026-big-ten-football-schedule-rankings-easiest-toughest/

Here are the win totals for other ranked Big Ten Teams: 13 USC - 8.5, 14 Michigan - 8.5, 21 Iowa - 7.5, 22 Washington - 7.5, 29 Illinois - 7.5.

In 2026, OBD plays five of the nine ranked Big Ten teams, with the USC, Ohio State, and Illinois games being played on the road.

...

Will playing nine conference games in 2026 make a difference in the SEC? FanDuel's win totals for the SEC say, 'Yes.'

No. 2 Texas and No. 3 Georgia have the highest It Just Means More win totals at 9.5.

Other SEC-ranked teams' win total: - 8 Texas A&M - 8.5, 10 Oklahoma 7.5, 12 LSU - 8.5, 16 Alabama - 8.5, 24 Missouri 6.5, 25 Tennessee - 7.5, 29 Florida 7.5.

If these totals are close to how SEC teams finish in 2026, far more SEC coaches than Georgia's Kirby Smart and Tennessee's Josh Heupel will come out in favor of Tony Petitti's 24-team CFB Playoff format.

It seems to me that FanDuel is taking an SEC team going Over risk.

...

.

Conference Champ Games based on Win Total:

ACC - Miami vs. SMU

B1G - Oregon vs Indiana

B12 - Texas Tech vs BYU/Utah

SEC - Texas vs Georgia

G6 win totals are not available. Oregon opponent Oklahoma State has a win total of 5.5.

Totals for all of the Big Ten teams -

https://duckswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/ducks/football/2026/03/17/oregon-football-big-ten-win-totals/89184898007/?utm_source=smg-duckswire-strada&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=SMGb

Beat Boise!

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