The Final Poll and the Pac-20

[Jon Joseph]

As we all know, the Pac-12 decided not to expand 'at this time.' Decided not to pick up B12 teams that were left hanging, for a while, when OK and TX decided to head for the SEC. 

 

My completely non-scientific take based on comments on the Forum, is that Forum members were split down the middle on whether the Pac-12 should have expanded. So, this is just some off-season fun with numbers at how the Pac-20 with the addition of Baylor, Houston, Iowa ST, KS, K ST, OK ST, TCU and TX Tech, would have hypothetically finished in the final AP Poll.

 

25% of the Pac-20 would have finished in the top 25 - Nos. 5 Baylor, 7 OK ST, 12 Utah, 17 Houston and 22 Oregon. 16.66% of the Pac-12 finished in the top 25. Pac-20 would have had 2 teams finish in the top 10, with Baylor finishing at 5 and 'just out of the playoff.' 

 

The Pac-20 would have had 12 bowl teams (UCLA no contest) and finished 5-6. The Pac-20 would have gone 4-1 (considering OK to be in the SEC) against the SEC.  Ws over No. 11 Ole Miss, LSU, Auburn, Miss St and an L vs No. 10 OK. 1-0 vs No. 8 Notre Dame that the Pac-12 finished 0-2 against.

 

The Pac-20 would have gone 2-1 in NY6 bowls; close to 3-0 with Utah's close L versus Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. More teams to split post-season $ with but adding the Sugar and Fiesta Bowls and more bowl eligible teams would have meant more money for the Pac-20 per school than earned by the Pac-12. (I also assume that like when Nebraska, Maryland and Rutgers joined the B1G, a 'full share' for new Pac-20 members would have been phased in. protecting the Pac-12 members current per-school bottom line.)

 

In 2025 with the new media deals in place, we'll see if the Pac-12 made the correct decision not to increase market size with a move into the Central time zone, and market share based on the number of eyeballs viewing the 'added 8' compared to the numbers watching Pac-12 games.

 

With expansion, would the Pac-12 Network have become financially solvent, up on all cable networks and returned a decent ROI to the Pac-12? Wither the network now with the decision not to expand? Late night games broadcast on the Network hurt and do not help the Pac-12 in any respect, including recruiting.

 

'At this time?' After Bob Bowlsby pulled his Houdini act and saved the B12 as a P5 conference, where can the Pac-12 expand to if it decides to expand? There are no financially viable teams for the Pac-12 to pick off in the Pacific and Mountain time zones.

 

I think the decision not to expand was a terrible and perhaps fatal decision for the Pac-12. Others reasonably disagree with this opinion.

 

At the end of the day, $ will tell the tale.