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Jon Joseph

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Posts posted by Jon Joseph

  1. On 5/3/2024 at 3:05 PM, Solar said:

    I am baffled by USC not being in any top 25 lists at the moment. Everyone is overreacting to the loss of Williams, and extreme skepticism of a defense turn around. The only thing that should be keeping them out of the top 10 is the OL.

     

    They should be in the top 15-20 range, but clearly they've been written off.

     

    I've seen us consistently in that 3rd-5th ranked range. Maybe a little high, but then I look at the others and I'm okay with it.

     

    Really there is a top tier of Georgia and Ohio State, then below that nobody really stands out for the next 7-10 spots.

     

     

    USC is ranked No. 20 in this ranking. I agree with you. The USC overall schedule is ranked one of if not the, toughest schedule in the country but this is due to SC playing LSU and Notre Dame OOC. SC misses Oregon and Ohio State and plays Penn State, Nebraska, and Wisconsin in LA.

     

    The Trojans play 5 conference road games, the first one vs Michigan in Ann Arbor, but the other four are against Minnesota, Maryland, UW, and UCLA. 

     

    I believe that USC is a threat to reach the conference champ game with one of Oregon/Ohio State certain of a loss when tOSU visits Oregon on 10/12, the same date SC plays Penn State. In 2025 SC opens at home vs. Ole Miss. SC again misses Ohio State (I can't believe Fox is allowing this) and plays Oregon in Eugene.

  2. DM, a terrific idea to lose the conference champ games. The teams that reach and play in the conference champ game, win, and receive a 1st-round bye will play 16 games. The loser of the conference champ games and the at-large teams will play 17 games. 

     

    And a conference champ game could knock out a team with a shot at the  8th through 11th seed which will cost a conference millions of dollars. But ESPN and Fox would have to agree to eliminate the conference champ games and would likely want to lower the current media deals with a conference champ game. These games draw large audiences in the SEC and the B1G. But, this could be tit-for-tat for expanding the field to 16 teams. 

     

    Another thought I have had that pales beside your idea is to play a 'real' spring game vs. an FCS opponent that would count as the first game of the 12-game regular season. The little guy gets paid and no FCS teams are allowed to be on a Power 4 schedule. 

     

    Something has to be adjusted. In an article on CBS yesterday, Dennis Dodd and the CFB folks he interviewed wonder if projected high draft picks will sit out playoff games! They also wondered if NIL deals are predicated on a player participating in every game if the player is healthy. This concern is another reason why I expect to see playoff revenue shared with the players. 

     

    In 2026 I will not be surprised to see a 16-team field with the two teams in the champ game playing four post-season games and the top eight seeds playing at least one home game.

     

    The playoff field has expanded but I believe this will give the committee a more difficult task than did the 4-team playoff.  

  3. Thanks, Steven. 

     

    Nine SEC teams ranked in the Top 25, with five in the Top 10. The lowest-ranked SEC team is A+M at 19. This just in, it's only eight conference games but SEC teams play one another. 

     

    Six B1G teams ranked. Iowa has the 22nd most difficult strength-of-schedule (SOS) in 2024 but I believe Iowa will finish in the Top 25 and knock out at least one of the five B12 teams that are ranked. 

     

    Using this Top 25, the following would be the 2024-25 Playoff seeding with a team's SOS (per College Football News) noted next to the team.

     

    1. Georgia - 21

    2. Ohio State - 57

    3. FSU - 31

    4. Utah - 37

     

    5. OREGON - 11

    6. Texas - 38

    7. Alabama - 16

    8. Ole Miss - 45

    9. Michigan - 5

    10. Notre Dame - 43

    11. Missouri - 66

    12. G5

     

    Five SEC teams are in the field with SEC teams hosting three of the four 1st-round games. Missouri with its 66th SOS would knock out a 4th B1G team, Penn State with its 14th most difficult SOS. If the two teams had the same record, Penn State should get the nod. Would it? 

     

    What if MIZZOU finishes 10-2 and Penn State finishes 9-3? Should Missouri with one more win against easier competition and playing eight and not nine conference games automatically get the 11th seed with Penn State left out? This would be a multi-million dollar benefit for the SEC due, at least in part, to Missouri's easier schedule. 

     

    FSU with an SOS of 31 and Utah with an SOS of 37 knock out Penn State? And have a first-round bye in the bargain? CUSA conference champion Liberty finishes 13-0 with the 134th-ranked SOS knocks out Penn State? The 12th-seed Flames would be back-to-back cannon fodder for the 5th-seed Ducks, this time playing in Eugene and not in Arizona. 

     

    Let's not ignore the situation in the B1G. Ohio State with the 57th SOS has a huge leg up over B1G title contenders - No. 1 USC, No. 5 Michigan, No. 11 Oregon, No. 14 Penn State, No. 18 Wisconsin, and No. 22 Iowa. Ohio State as SEC fans would no doubt be first in line to point out has an easier SOS than all SEC contenders other than Missouri. 

     

    I know that I harp on the matter of schedule strength. But with today's 16, 17 (plus 5/12th of the Domers,) and 18-team conferences, intra-conference scheduling, and the number of conference games played, will make a difference. A millions of dollars difference. 

     

    There is no professional playoff that allows teams that played fewer games against top competition to compete for a championship. With millions of dollars at stake and players likely to be paid by revenue sharing, the Committee had best recognize SOS. Also, come 2026, the reliance on bowls, except for the semifinal and champ games, should go away in favor of at least two rounds of home games. This is a PLAYOFF. There is no reason to use bowls that for the most part are located in Dixie and benefit southern teams playing in Dixie. 

     

    IMO, preseason rankings should look to December 3, 2024, the date the committee will seed the field. And any ranking that does not consider scheduling, is, IMO, worthless.

     

    Thanks again for the post.

  4. Updated take on settlement discussions and the cost of settlement and revenue sharing. It appears the price tag for the settlement and revenue sharing will be $30M or more per athletic department. 

     

    Schools may not want or be able to meet the financial requirements. Schools will be left behind, sports cut, and salaries likely cut.

     

    This article was posted the same day that Kirby Smart's new salary was announced. Kirby at a base salary of $13M per annum is now CFB'c highest paid head coach. 

     

    SPORTS.YAHOO.COM

    The college sports industry is moving closer an athlete compensation system. At this point, it seems inevitable.

     

  5. The following was reported by The Athletic (paywall) on May 2nd.

     

    If anyone doubts that there is a Power 2, in 2023-24 105 games drew 3M + viewers. 85 of these games, 81%, featured the 18-team B1G and the 16-team SEC teams. 

     

    20 games drew 8M+ viewers. 19 of these games, 95%, featured B1G and SEC teams. The other game was Colorado State at Colorado. 

     

    In my opinion, the Power 2's receiving 55.5% of the Playoff revenue is fair; eminently fair. 

     

    2024's Top 10 Conference Games 

     

    1. 11/30 Michigan at Ohio State

     

    2. 10/12 Ohio State at Oregon

     

    3. 11/2 Oregon at Michigan

     

    4. 11/2 Ohio State at Penn State

     

    5. 9/21 USC at Michigan

     

    6. 10/12 Penn State at USC

     

    7. Michigan at Washington

     

    8. 11/30 Washington at Oregon

     

    9. 10/5 Iowa at Ohio State

     

    10. 9/28 Wisconsin at USC

     

    Seven of the games feature the Pac-4 Newbies. 

     

    Just Missed - 11/16 Oregon at Wisconsin

     

    2024 Top 10 Out-of-Conference Games

     

    1. 9/7 Texas at Michigan

     

    2. 9/14 Alabama at Wisconsin

     

    3. 9/1 USC vs LSU - Las Vegas

     

    Tied 4. 9/14 Oregon at Oregon State and Washington State vs. Washington - Seahawks Stadium

     

    6. 11/30 Notre Dame at USC

     

    7. 9/7 Iowa State at Iowa

     

    8. 9/7 Colorado at Nebraska

     

    9. 8/31 Penn State at West Virginia

     

    10. 9/14 Maryland at Virginia 

     

    Don't Miss - Thursday 8/29 North Carolina at Minnesota and 9/21 Rutgers at Virginia Tech. Also on 9/21 UCLA at LSU; this is an idle week for Oregon before the game at UCLA on 9/28. 

     

    I was surprised to see the Pac-2 games ranked at T-4 by The Athletic. I expect Notre Dame at USC and UCLA at LSU will have more viewers, by far, than will 'The Civil War' and the 'Apple Cup' games. The Domers at Troy and the Bruins in Baton Rouge will be on B1G Boy TV and not on CW.

     

    Let's Get It On! 8/31 The Vandals Come a Callin'.

     

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  6. On 4/29/2024 at 9:28 PM, TerryM9 said:

    Just as long as we get rid of the late kickoffs everything else is welcome. I like watching College game day and am always ready for the early games.

    A Friday night game will be broadcast by NBC/Peacock almost every Friday during the season. We are likely to see a lot of Pac-4 Newbies games broadcast on Friday nights.

  7. On 5/2/2024 at 3:05 PM, Solar said:

    Can leopard change it's spots? FSU doesn't count. The straw that broke the camels back was the QB injury not the poor SoS.

    If the spots are not changed we will see a format change in 2026 and B1G commish Tony Petitti, hopefully, complaining about the SEC playing 8 conference games. The SEC will continue with 8 conference games in 2025. The SEC is waiting to see what the Committee will do SOS-wise.

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  8. On 4/30/2024 at 2:23 AM, David Marsh said:

    One or two late games would still be nice. Night games have something special about them. 

     

    But being constantly relegated to late night isn't pleasant. 

     

    Even if Oregon gets some late night games the coverage of them the following day would be much greater in the B1G with the B1G network. 

    BTN CFB coverage includes post-game coach press conferences.

  9. On 4/30/2024 at 7:58 AM, Chuc007 said:

    Is that a question? I'm watching game day at 6 AM. It's always an upper yo watch the DUCKS.

    In South Carolina, I begin watching my tape of GameDay at Noon Eastern. Then, watch the games I want to watch on tape without having to watch the Boz police Fansville. 

     

    10:30 Eastern games are viewed on Sunday. 

  10. On 4/30/2024 at 2:14 PM, EastBayDuckDad said:

    I was in Jerusalem on November 3, 2012 with a church group and found an Irish sports bar (yep, they've got them and it served Guinness. I bought our pastor a pint 😎) that put the USC-Oregon game on for us. It started at 1am local time.

     

    We watched most of Kenyon Barner's record setting rushing performance and the high scoring seesaw until they kicked us out at 4am. We then hoofed it back to our hotel where we watched the last 5 minutes on someone's laptop. Memorable. 

     

    So it doesn't matter what time a game starts for the rabid Duck fan. 9am is just fine by me. I am hoping that there will be fewer 8pm starts, but I imagine we will still get stuck with one when we play USC, UCLA or the Fuskies.

    Kosher Guinness? Who knew?

  11. On 5/2/2024 at 1:36 PM, JabbaNoBargain said:

    He certainly lists 10 teams.

     

    No Alabama, FSU, Miami, Clemson, UNC, or USC either. Random hack from Raleigh with zero ACC teams on his list.
     

    Notre Dame is 5/12 of an ACC program. A 12-game schedule aided and abetted by the ACC. SOS in 2024, 47. Ducks SOS is 11. 

     

    Including QB Milroe, Bama will have at least 6 players drafted in 2025. 

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  12. https://collegefootballnews.com/rankings/college-football-schedule-rankings-easiest-to-hardest-1-to-134-2024

     

    College Football News has ranked the 134 Group of 5 (G5) and Power 4 (ACC, B1G, B12, SEC, Notre Dame) Strenght of Schedules (SOS.) The run for the 12-team Playoff spots is far from a fair fight. Yes, there are variances in the difficulty of NFL schedules, but nothing like what we see in college football. The rankings include out-of-conference (OOC) and conference games. USC is No. 1 ranked due more to its OOC schedule, LSU, Utah State, and Notre Dame, than the in-conference schedule. USC misses both Ohio State and Oregon. 

     

    B1G Title Contenders and Others in the Top 25 -

     

    OREGON is just outside the Top 10, coming in at 11. 

     

    1. USC; 5. Michigan; 14. Penn State; 18. Wisconsin; 22. Iowa; 33 Washington; 57 Ohio State

     

    3. UCLA; 4. Purdue; 12. Minnesota; 19. Northwestern; T 24 Michigan State. 

     

    12 B1G teams in the Top 25 and Ohio State at 57!  Ohio State has a B1G SOS leg up in the race for the B1G title.

     

    The B1G will battle the SEC for the eleven at-large 2024 Playoff spots. The 12th seed will most likely go to the G5 representative, Liberty's SOS is ranked 134th out of 134 teams. Notre Dame's schedule comes in at 43. 

     

    SEC Title Contenders and Others in the Top 25 -

     

    16. Alabama; 17. LSU; 21. Georgia; 29. Oklahoma; 38. Texas; 45. Ole Miss; 61. Tennessee; 66. Missouri.

     

    2. Florida; 10. Vanderbilt; 41. Texas A+M. 

     

    Three SEC teams are in the Top 25. This happens when your conference plays eight and not nine conference games.  

     

    One of the biggest questions of 2024: Will SOS factor into the Playoff Committee's calculus; or, will wins and losses be all that matters?

  13. WWW.CBSSPORTS.COM

    What the early 2025 NFL Draft mock drafts can tell us about top college football teams for 2024

     

    Three B1G teams make the list. Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State. Ohio Stae is 'balanced' with four players on O and four on D expected to be drafted. Michigan has seven players listed, six on D. Penn State QB Drew Allar makes the list? He has all the measurables but nowhere close to the talent to date.

     

    Colorado makes the list with three players. Why isn't Oregon on the list with at least ten players who will be drafted?

     

    QB - Dillon Gabriel/ OT Cornelius, Conerly; DE Burch; TE Ferguson; RB James; CB Muhammad; LB Bassa; WR Johnson; Stewart. 

     

    In 2024 Oregon will have the opportunity to elbow its way into the B1G's top tier of teams. The talent is there but the strength-of-the-schedule (SOS) is difficult; 11th most difficult in the country according to College Football News. Ohio State comes in with the 57th (!) most difficult SOS. 

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