Jump to content

Finish your profile right here  and directions for adding your Profile Picture (which appears when you post) is right here.

Jon Joseph

Moderator

  • Joined

  • Last visited

View Profile Find content

Posts posted by Jon Joseph

    12-1. Orange Bowl vs Georgia. An additional $6M in the conference bank.

     

    If Oregon is a PO team it should defeat a team, twice, that lost to OR ST, and BYU, and San Diego State. 

     

    This is not like having to beat Carroll's SC teams 2 times in 3 weeks. With the possible exception of LB, the Ducks are superior at every position group. Ducks special teams is better than Utah's. And I trust veteran AB to manage the game properly.

    • Thumbs Up 1

    Posted

    About last week? Nothing to see here, move right along.

     

    I went 0-4.

     

    Alabama scored too many points, Tennessee, Kentucky and UGA not enough. Now at 14-13 I am closing in on Joey Galloway territory. (30 Duck among others warned me.)

     

    Referencing Galloway brings me to Joey's alma mammy, Ohio State. I'm double dipping here, taking Michigan State +19 and the Over 66.5. The MI ST 'come fly in our zone' DBs will give up a lot of passing yards to the Buckeyes. But the OH ST D is not all world and OH ST blow out wins have not come against the better teams on the schedule. I see a Buckeyes win but not by more than 19 points. I see the Sparty run game scoring against OH ST.

     

    Frank Beamer's son, Shane, has done an under the radar terrific job in his first season at South Carolina. SO CAR is 5-5 and on the cusp of bowl eligibility. A wounded Auburn team comes into Columbia this Saturday. Auburn surrendered a 28-3 lead vs MS ST last Saturday. QB Bo Nix and the Tigers FG kicker are both out for the rest of the season. USC (e) is +5.5, but I'm taking the Gamecocks Straight Up with a potential +240 payout.

     

    And I'm down with the better team getting +3 at Utah. Oregon wins and covers.

     

    If you want to win more, than these recommendations you may want to ignore?

    ·

    Edited by Steven A
    wrong team

    Thanks Charles. Isn't 'this' what the UCLA OL that mauled LSU tried to do to Oregon?

     

    This Utah OL was not able to bully BYU, a team with a loss to Boise and a loss at Baylor. It didn't bully San Diego State.  It certainly did not road grade the AZ D last week.  It played well in Corvallis but not well enough to beat the Beavs.

     

    Many the 'expert' does not wat to see a team that lost at Stanford in the PO. They want lovable little Cincy instead. Utah is getting goosed up by folks who want the Ducks to suffer the 2nd L and be out of the PO. 

     

    Ducks win in SLC by 1 score? These 'folks' will call it an unimpressive win even though the Ducks come in +3. Oregon has covered the last 2 games and both wins have not been 'impressive' in the eyes of folks back east, folks who don't keep their eyes open to watch Oregon play.

     

    Utah has not seen a D as good as the Ducks this season. Have not seen a KT or a Sewell. The Ducks have 1 bad loss. Utah has 3 bad losses.

    • Thumbs Up 1
    • Like 1

    On 11/18/2021 at 1:28 PM, David Marsh said:

    I did talk about how Cristobal was reshaping the conference in my article last week. 

     

    Though I didn't go through all the turnover, but the more recent coaching turnover and the bigger question that every program looking to hire a new head coach has to answer... "can they beat Oregon on the recruiting trail and on the field?" 

     

    Loved the article. But if recruiting rankings define a conference, other than for Oregon, the Pac-12 is reshaping itself in the image of the Mountain West.

     

    The 2021 champion of the Pac-12 S should rightfully be BYU. If not BYU, it should be San Diego State. Or possibly, Fresno? 

     

    And this was the season when the S was going to be deeper and better than the Pac-12 N. Utah lost at BYU and SDS. ASU also lost to BYU and is an undisciplined mess. UCLA beats LSU at home but takes the L vs Fresno?  SC is at an all time low. WA ST loses at home to BYU and Utah State. UW?

     

    3 Pac-12 HCs have been dismissed in-season. Has this ever happened before in a P5 conference?

     

    Oregon with a game manager QB and a very young roster has overachieved to date. But without the W in Columbus, where would a 2L Oregon be ranked? The other team ranked in the Pac-12, Utah,  loses Saturday and is out of the top 25. If Utah wins the Utes stay in the top 25 but the Pac-12 is out of the PO and out $6M.

     

    Looking at the recruiting rankings for 2022, what team(s) in the conference other than Oregon, are poised to make a move and be a national contender? What returning QB will put up Heisman-like numbers? Will the conference finish better than .500 OOC?

     

    GO DUCKS. But the Ducks need better partners, period.

    • Thumbs Up 1

    On 11/18/2021 at 12:23 PM, Duck1984 said:

    In my view, there is no terrible outcome for the Ducks as long as they win the Battle for Oregon and the PAC 12 championship.

     

    Sure, it would be fun to see the Ducks in the invitational semifinals, but any slip or slight serves as motivation for next year.

     

    Go Ducks!

     

    However, it is $6M gone. Money the conference needs today. And this team is not one that should play in the Alamo Bowl. Too talented not to win this conference.

    • Thumbs Up 1

    On 11/18/2021 at 11:49 AM, Duck 1972 said:

    Do u figure the committee considers the many obstacles that led to the loss at Stanford. I mean losing your starting safety, center and OC before the game?

     

    Then Verdel during the 3rd quarter and JT and questionable flags in the last drive to tie it? 

     

    If not why not?

     

    I think the CT does take obstacles such as the above into consideration? If not, Oregon would not be ranked #3. Arguably, 1 loss MI, MI ST, Notre Dame, Ok ST and Wake Forest all have a 'better' L than the Ducks.  The W in Columbus is the Ducks golden PO ticket. What to date is the Ducks 2nd best win? Fresno? 

     

    At the end of the day, if there is not another huge upset waiting to happen, the Stanford L will not be ignored or excused. If OR had more top 25 wins the game might be excused? But I expect the Ducks only top 25 win will be the W in Columbus in week 2? 

     

    • Thanks 1

    On 11/18/2021 at 10:31 AM, 30Duck said:

    In past years even if Georgia was playing great we still felt like Alabama would beat them. But this 'Bama team is different, there's a nagging thought that Alabama isn't a Lock against Ark. or Auburn. In the words of PO Chair Barta, I think that OK. ST is more complete than is OK. who could see their season end Sooner than later.

    It's great to see Wake Forest be relevant for the first time since Brian Picolo told the Kansa Comet, Gale Sayers, that he played at Wake in, "Brian's Song" back in 1971.

     

    We do want OH. ST to stay unblemished except for that bloody smear inflicted upon them by the Oregon.

     

    Hey Stanford, could you do the Ducks a solid and at least be competitive against ND ?

     

    Dear 30Duck, how about no? Your buddy, Coach Shaw.

    • Haha 1

    On 11/17/2021 at 4:30 PM, DanLduck said:

    I know we want more relevance for the Pac12, but why does USC have to be good? Why not UCLA?

    I would much rather see Chip carry the banner in LA. Let the dumpster fire that is SC burn for a few more years!

     

    Why not indeed? But historically UCLA comes nowhere close to the success the Trojans have experienced in CFB. It is of course the opposite when it comes to basketball. UCLA is a basketball school.

     

    UCLA is not helped by playing its home games in Pasadena, in a huge and starting to age Rose Bowl. But building a stadium in Westwood today? Forget about it.

     

    And I am reasonably certain that the SC administrators have more interest in success on the football field than do the folks running UCLA? There are back-channel talks going on between NBC and SC regarding an NBC Notre Dame like broadcast deal with the Trojans. Also rumored talks with CBS that is about to lose the SEC broadcast rights. I think Bob Bowlsby and the B12 would do a deal with SC for all sports other than football? The same kind of deal ND has with the ACC? I also think Bowlsby and the other B12 members would be willing to give SC a bigger slice of the pie if it would bring SC on board? (Ditto the Ducks BTW.)

     

    The B1G comes to the media renegotiation table first. SC is going to use this deal as a comparison with what GK can pull off for the Pac-12. I'm not certain that SC wants to continue receiving the same cut as Washington State? I also think that Oregon better be looking out for itself? The "new' B12 has 5 teams ranked in the Committee's top 25, 5 Cincinnati, 9 OK ST, 11 Baylor, 14 BYU and 24 Houston.

    The 'new' B12, even without OK/TX, will be a deeper and better CFB conference than the Pac-12. This also will likely be the case in basketball? 

     

    1 extra P5 Alliance OOC game a year will not save the Pac 12's bacon. Today, the biggest beneficiary of The Alliance is the new Pac-12 commissioner. 

     

     

    • Thumbs Up 1
    • Like 1

    On 11/18/2021 at 9:48 AM, Haywarduck said:

    Nice analysis, and agree it would be nice to see more of this going forward. The team and program is getting better, stronger and more innovative as the season progresses.

     

    Thanks for putting this together and helping us understand the new Oregon Football Programs ways. It isn't what we use to seeing, but it is working out just fine, so far, Go Ducks!

     

    If Moorhead sticks around and develops one or two of the young qb's into a strong passing threat, he might be worth, on the open market, more than  that coach down at #7. Can you imagine being a coach, on the verge of a bidding war for your services with what is going on?

     

    It might be between Thibs and Moorhead on who gets the most next season. If both of these guys stay healthy and put up good numbers, they will be very wealthy. I mean Moorhead has a chance to write his ticket if he leads this offense to the playoffs, right?

     

    Good thoughts on Moorhead , Hayward. JM has to be on the radar of a number of ADs looking for a new coach. But he won't be offered a big boy, SC or LSU job. 

     

    JM went 14-12 at MS ST. In his second year at MS ST Leach has the team on both sides of the ball playing better than it did under JM.  Leach has a 6-4 MI ST ranked at 25. The record should be 7-3; refs screwed MI ST out of a W at Memphis. Of course, the cynical among us may think that this ranking is there to prop up Bama's schedule? 

     

    I think JM, especially with his salary now at $1M has to be getting a long look from Jen Cohen at UW?  And also from WA ST if WAZZU decides to move on from its interim coach. And based on his time recruiting the area while at Penn St perhaps he is also on Va Tech's list?

     

    The guy I feel sorry for is Justin Wilcox. No school was hit by COVID harder than was CAL. He is a far better HC than his record shows. He is fed up with the Berkeley health authorities and with the lack of support from the CAL administration. But with his overall record it will take guts for an AD to hire him. 

     

    J Smith at OR ST is the lowest paid coach in the Pac-12. A win over ASU Saturday will really move him up on many the AD's list, including UW. J Smith has loyalty to his alma mater but Smith never made the big bucks in the pros or as an assistant in CFB. There is far more upside in Seattle than in Corvallis.

     

    I think that if UCLA wins at SC Saturday Chip's job is safe? ASU could finish 9-3 but with the NCAA buzzing around is Herm's job safe? Many the ASU fan is ready to see Herm leave town.

    • Thanks 1

    My guess, for what little it is worth: 

     

    1. Georgia  - 13-0

    2. Ohio State - 12-1

    3. Cincinnati - 13-0

    4, Oregon 12-1. Best win among the competitors and also the worst loss. OH ST's ending SOS will be far better than Oregon's. IMO in the final rankings 13-0 Cincy also jumps the Ducks.

     

    It works politically for the CT and ESPN to keep the Ducks in but show respect for the G5. It also sets up a Cotton Bowl money-ball, civil war matchup between little guy Cincy and big, bad Ohio State. A big game on New Year's Eve to keep folks home and watching CFB. Can David beat Goliath? Oregon vs Georgia in the Orange Bowl will bring in many the viewer from coast to coast.

     

    CINCY will have 2 top 25 wins including the season's 2nd best win over a ND team ranked as high as 5 or 6? The Stanford loss, especially after ND demolishes Stanford, will look worse and worse. Oregon will have one top 25 win, the best win in the country. But in the final rankings, Oregon will be the only Pac-12 team, with the possible exception of an ASU team that could finish 9-3,  that will be ranked ranked in the top 25. And if ASU is ranked, Oregon will still be 0-0 versus ASU.

     

    I would be very happy if my guess happens. 

    Posted

    - WHERE THINGS STAND TODAY AND WHERE TEAMS MAY BE GOING?

     

    NOTRE DAME - #8 finishes with Georgia Tech at home and plays its 12th and last game at Stanford. Figure the Domers to finish 11-1, be in the PO hunt and will definitely play in a NY6 Bowl. Probably, the Peach Bowl?

     

    CHAMP GAMES AS OF !1/17/21

     

    ACC - WAKE v PITT -  Winner to the Peach Bowl.

     

    B1G - OHIO STATE VS WISCONSIN - Cotton Bowl for tOSU. I think that if tOSU defeats Michigan and Michigan finishes 10-2, Michigan will go to the Rose Bowl instead of IMO, a WI team with at least 4Ls.

     

    B12 - OKLAHOMA v OKLAHOMA STATE - This would be a week-later-rematch of the end of the regular season Bedlam game in Stillwater. Both win this week and Champ game winner will go to the Fiesta Bowl. Both teams still have an outside shot at the PO.

     

    PAC-12 - OREGON v UTAH - This would be a two-week-later-rematch. If Oregon goes 12-1 it is more than likely in the PO, probably ranked 4, and playing 1 Georgia in the Orange Bowl.

    Utah will likely play in the Rose Bowl. But if ASU wins in Corvallis and wins vz AZ, at 9-3 ASU could be in Rose Bowl contention? 

     

    SEC - GEORGIA v ALABAMA  - If UGA beats Charlie South and Georgia Tech and Bama defeats Arkansas and wins at Auburn and then wins the champ game? Two 1L SEC teams will be in the Final 4.

     

    THIS puts a 12-1 Ducks at risk of being only the 2nd 12-1 P5 champ (OH ST was the other) that would be left out of the  PO. What I think happens? UGA wins the title and goes to the Orange Bowl to play Oregon. Bama plays in the Sugar Bowl. NOTE - Auburn is NR but opponent #21, 7-3 Arkansas is ranked. The Bama L at #16 A+M is simply a case of Bama using its annual PO mulligan.

     

    QB Bo Nix and the Tigers #1 FG kicker, were both hurt versus Mississippi State. Both will be out for the Bama game. TJ Finley who came via portal from LSU, will start at QB Saturday at South Carolina. (Reveal: I'm down on South Carolina winning SU at +240)

     

    AAC -CINCINNATI v HOUSTON. - MAKE NO MISTAKE - This game will play a part in the teams that will be picked to advance to the final 4.

     

    Houston, currently 9-1 and ranked #24, has already won its division and has qualified for the champ game. If Cincy beats SMU at home this week it will finish 12-0. Houston will likely finish  11-1 and ranked by the Committee. Ducks v Utah  - Utah will not be ranked after the Utes suffer a loss vs Oregon on Saturday. (A Hobson's Choice for the Ducks.)

     

    The AAC Champ Game will be a battle of top 25 teams.  A top 25 matchup and a chance for Cincy to cement its Final 4 case. Cincy would finish with an excellent win on the road in South Bend vs top 7 or so,  Notre Dame and a top 25 win in its champ game. Oregon? Will have a big win at Ohio State.  A bad, bad loss at Stanford, and no other top 25 victories. To date among the competitors, the Ducks has the best win and also has the worst loss.

     

    I shutter to think what a Notre Dame team out to impress the Committee and get a Peach or Fiesta invite, or maybe even a PO invite, will do to hapless, helpless, Stanford?  A comparative score of this game and the Ducks/Cardinal game will be frequently discussed during this game and afterward by the Committee?

     

    I think both 12-1 Ohio State and a 13-0  Cincinnati jump the Ducks. Ohio State's SOS will dwarf that of Oregon. And the L on The Farm will come back to bite the Ducks in its posterior when compared to an undefeated Cincy with 2 top 25 wins. The W at Notre Dame will probably finish as 2nd best win in 2021?

     

    The Committee would love to prove it is not all about the P5 and can do so by dropping a 12-1 Oregon to 4 ,but and still keep the Ducks in the Playoff? Georgia will draw a huge number of eyeballs. Oregon media wise travels very well; especially,  in big. intersectional games. 

     

    This would also set up a great money-ball game between 2 teams from Ohio;:Big Bro Brutis vs poor, in-state little bro. Move over Rocky! Does Cincy belong here? Will Ohio State blow Cincy out?

    This matchup would keep more people at home on New Year's Eve watching CFB.

     

    MY GUESSS AT THE FINAL 4? - 1. Georgia - 13-0   2. Ohio State -12-1  3. Cincinnati - 13-0  4. Oregon - 12-1.

    Ladies and Gents, this payday came courtesy of the SEC; LSU to be exact. I think Fisher is serious about staying in College Station.

     

    Candidate 2 for the Tigers? Mel Tucker. MSU could see this coming from a mile away and no doubt also heard from Mel's agent. Mel is a B1G guy and he knew what people would think if he abandoned another school within 2 years of arriving for more money.

     

    It is insane, no doubt. But it is just further evidence that big time CFB is big time business. The Market for New Coaches is boiling, and without that many obvious replacement coaches in the pot. It is also further evidences that sooner rather than later,  CFB in all respects will be morph closer and closer to the NFL.

     

    Expect the players to be allowed to form a union and to be paid to play and and not just by marketing their respective NIL. Having to 'play school' will go away or there will be Major in College Football that will be a walk through. Players will have access to the coaches 24/7, all year long. College stadiums and even the entirety of football operations will be leased by schools. Players who will be professionals will not be awarded scholarships and the football rosters will no longer count for T9 purposes. Liability in every respect will be assumed by the lessee. No more will a head football coach be the highest paid employee in a given state of our nation.

     

    Somewhere around 32 to 40 schools are likely to be involved. Most likely a HS draft will replace recruiting. 

    On 11/14/2021 at 3:44 PM, FanGirlDuck said:

    @Confused

    Am I the only one here who caught this on Twitter just after the game? We have a plethora of underutilized WR talent, I hope the coaches can keep them happy enough to stay out of the portal until we have a passing QB again.

    https://twitter.com/MycahPittman/status/1459789707445882892?t=jOyBal-okLIr1tpyZrMHNw&s=19

     

    Screenshot_20211113-235041~2.png

     

    I feel really bad for Pittman and his loss of self-esteem. Quick, someone hand him a trophy! He can go hang out with Odell.

    • Thumbs Up 1

    On 11/17/2021 at 11:59 AM, 30Duck said:

     

     Galloway doesn't even think UGA has to beat Bama. 

     

    That says all you need to know regarding Joey Galloway. An 11-2 non-champ will get in with a loss at 3L, #16 A+M, and an L in its champ game? But 11-1 Michigan with a loss vs #4 or higher, , 13-0 Cincy, 1L OK, 1L OK ST, 1L Notre Dame, do not get in? Joey is an ESPN mouthpiece who does not follow CFB in depth. His Virtual Lock picks are flat out embarrassing.

    • Haha 1
    • Thumbs Up 1