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noDucknewby
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Posts posted by noDucknewby
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Edited by noDucknewby
The engineering of the previous expansion was specifically designed to accomodate a second phase. They most likely already have those plans.
Not saying the other logistical hurdles aren't significant, but in the past those have all been overcome and I suspect that would be the case here.
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On 8/6/2023 at 1:19 PM, NJDuck said:
This was posted by Charles. A ten game schedule would change things.
Yes that would certainly change the equation, but it seems to me that divisions are gone for good regardless of how the geography works.
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Edited by noDucknewby
Fuskies will almost certainly be our protected game in this format. I agree it's unlikely that we play USC/UCLA every year, I'm guessing every other year. So basically we have two west coast conference games, probably split home/away.
That leaves seven conference games so we'll travel for 3-4 of those. Good background from the Rutgers poster about the B1G protecting UM/tOSU, we may have to wait a while before the big dogs come to Autzen. I'm hoping we get that make-up game against tOSU, but most likely we're going to see the likes of Purdue/Indiana/Illinois/Northwestern for a while. I'm betting that we have mostly one-offs from the top-tier of the B1G in their house.
Ok none of this should be a big surprise (this is what we signed up for), but IMHO it's imperative that we play our non-conference games (other than every other year with the Beavs) at home. Screw playing Georgia in Atlanta or LSU in Jerry World, we no longer need that signature non-conference win.
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Edited by noDucknewby
Yes absolutely. For that matter I would be fine with the rodents and wazoo, as unlikely as that may be.
UCLA would probably support Cal so they don't have to give them part of their TV payout, but I just don't see the Spoiled Children agreeing to any further B1G expansion because it might cut into their payout and their precious exclusivity. The odds of any of this happening go way down once USC gets a vote.
Cal is in a really tough spot, Furd could possibly be used to entice ND and that would give the B1G the Bay Area.
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In a sense he's right. If Oregon states outright that they're with Pac as long as there is a Pac AND they're willing to accept a paltry TV deal that puts them in dead last of the Power 5 AND they're willing to risk fading into obscurity in a dying conference, then the Pac would probably have survived in some (albeit barely recognizable) form.
That or take the $ and stability of the B1G in a sport destined for a Power Two format. Come on, Oram what you have done?
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On 8/4/2023 at 5:49 PM, lownslowav8r said:
Except it is not a jungle, but is a human designed system.
This system has flaws that allows a media oligopoly (the so-called linear media) have influence into areas (conference design and membership) that arguably they shouldn’t have.
This has lead to a diminished experience of sports for many of us, and financial disaster, unearned financial disaster, for the most vulnerable schools.
This human designed system is also creating record profits for a relatively narrow group of people who are isolated from the harms of their actions.
Metaphor dude.
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This is a bittersweet day for sure. The death of the Pac-12 brings me no joy, but knowing that Oregon will have a seat at the big table going forward makes me really optimistic about the future.
Once the new CFP format is announced I'm guessing 8-9 teams from the B1G/SEC to be in it every year. Throw in ND whenever they have a 10-win season and that doesn't leave much room for the rest.
The Pac-12 and college football as we once knew it is gone. Adapt or die is the law of the jungle.
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Well little brother, in case you haven't figured this out it's now every man for himself. We didn't start this mess, we're just trying to make lemonade here.
That said I would be really bummed if when the dust settles the Civil War goes the way of the Pac-12.
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Edited by noDucknewby
On 8/2/2023 at 12:31 PM, Jon Joseph said:As to what would be acceptable in a revenue share from the B1G? I defer to the people instrumental in the operation of the Athletic Department but in my FWIW opinion, $40M a year with 6 teams on the west coast would warrant a move to a conference that will be one of two standing at the end of the day.
Spot on Jon, although IMHO if we could get B1G $ (with escalation to full share) comparable to B12 $ then that's still a huge win for us.
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On 8/2/2023 at 10:44 AM, Santa Rosa Duck said:
Apple is the largest publicly traded company in the world. Apple TV is just a tiny part of that but do you think the Apple TV executives intend to stay small? Not a chance. Apple TV in 4-5 years will be a monster IMHO and our DUCKS will have great exposure. I have Apple TV now and the content and 4K streaming quality are excellent. I say bring it on!
You may be right, but do we really want to wait 4-5 years for that to happen and risk irrelevancy in the meantime?
The power brokers for the CFP are ESPN/Fox and the B1G/SEC. How is Apple going to help us there? Are we going to see Duck highlights from Apple TV on Sports Center?
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Edited by noDucknewby
One thing life has taught me (yeah I'm old) is that wanting something in itself, no matter badly, just doesn't make it so. I want the Pac? to survive, but even if it does it won't ever be the same again. This year will be the conference's swan song and ironically this is the best the conference has looked in a decade. I'll just enjoy it one last time and hope USC and Colorado get the send-off they deserve in Autzen.
Granted we don't know the final details of what the new media offer will be, but all indications are that our ceiling (not floor!) is what the B12 already has. Polish this turd all you want, it appears that we will finish this round of media deals in solid last place. Can GK pull a rabbit out of the hat? Will a last-minute savior swoop in with a new offer? We can wish all we want, but at some point reality has to set in.
Arizona/ASU/Utah would be fools not to bail to the B12. Geography and culture works better for them and from a B12 perspective they'd be at 16 teams approaching super conference status. This is a win/win for all parties involved and seems inevitable to me.
So where does that leave OBD? We could probably limp through until the next media round with a Pac/MWC hybrid conference but we'd no longer be in a power conference, not even second-tier like the B12 or ACC. Our brand is strong, the conference not-so-much and really we need both to compete for playoff spots.
Beg, borrow, steal, do whatever it takes to get into the B1G or risk dwindling into irrelevance. I don't like it but I just don't see how we get what we've been striving for all these years by staying in the Pac.
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On 6/20/2023 at 5:02 PM, David Marsh said:
If they want to...
Mentioned on another thread today is that many of the higher ups in the B1G don't like the prospect of regularly traveling to the west coast.
Ohio State cancelled their ooc with Washington to avoid the expense.
Traveling to southern California once every couple years is one thing... It's nice there and is in the middle of a recruiting hot bed.
But what about the perspect of traveling to the PNW in October? Sure it's warmer than the midwest ... But it's rainy and from a recruiting stand point it isn't worth their while.
I could see resistance to adding more west coast schools. The current B1G members probably don't care about the LA schools' burden of travel but they'll care about their own and simply put... More west coast schools will mean more frequent trips.
David I read your article about Pac-12 survival strategy and while I agree with your strategic analysis, I think it is most likely wishful thinking. I just don't envision the LA schools (or just UCLA) taking a huge pay cut to reduce travel time and related expenses to return to the Pac-12. To my mind, it is more likely that the B1G will do whatever it needs to do to keep them there and the best way to do that is add more west coast schools to ease travel issues.
Hypothetically, if they add Oregon/Washington/Cal/Stanford and create a west coast pod that plays each other every year, that accounts for 5 conference games. Throw in 2 home and 2 away games with the rest of the conference and that becomes very manageable. Under this scenario there would be a total of 12 away games on the west coast for the rest of the conference to split up, which seems very doable.
Would the B1G want Cal and Stanford? That's anybody's guess at this point, but I don't think they would give up either of the LA schools without a fight and let's face it we're badly outgunned here.
Don't get me wrong, I'm rooting for the Pac and I hope you're right but the B1G and the SEC are holding all the cards and all I see is the rich getting richer.
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Ok I'll state the obvious, if this new TV deal gets done the existing members will be signing away their GOR for the next 4-5 years. How is it possible that two years into a new 4-5 year deal the conference collapses? There's more of a chance the conference doesn't survive the summer.
The next contract cycle is an entirely different debate and it certainly seems likely that the B1G will take another bite out of the P12 at that time. The LA schools aren't coming back and I agree with others that the P12 only survives as a power conference as long as the B1G/SEC allow it to.
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Edited by noDucknewby
On 5/25/2023 at 8:18 AM, Rufus said:Wonder if there is any truth to this?
SW AIM SHOW@GSw aim · 9h
BREAKING: Every school in the #Pac12 was made aware on Monday that their Final TV package will be roughly $20M per team, which is far below the #Big12 and $5M below the minimum number that most of the P12 teams wanted to stay. But WAIT...there's more. (1/2)
SW AIM SHOW@GSw aim · 9h
(2/2) The #B1G will take in the #Ducks and #UDub if any of the #Pac12 schools leave for the #Big12. I can neither confirm or deny that they'll take #Stanford and the #CalBears, but certainly checkibg.Hard to say how much validity this has, but it does not seem beyond the realm of possibility.
$20 million/year is not enough to keep the P12 together. Maybe with a very short-term contract and uneven revenue sharing this might work for one contract cycle, but it would be the beginning of the end.
That said, I just don't see how the demise of the P12 would benefit ESPN. Do they really want to go all-in on the MWC for the west coast evening slots? Unless they're throwing in the towel, I just don't see them ceding the entire west coast to Fox.
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By my calendar today is May 15. The new B1G commsioner starts his job July 1. Our new University President from the B1G is already on the job. There are no apparent positive developments in the P12 TV deal. That doesn't mean they're not on the horizon, but we've been hearing that a deal is close for most of a year now and still nothing definitive has surfaced.
IMHO July 1 is a critical date. If we're still having these conversations then, my $ is on someone bailing and the conference imploding.
Personally I hope the conference survives this round and the LA schools get stuck with horrible travel schedules, but that may just be wishful thinking. I just don't see any positve movement in the TV deal going forward, hope I'm wrong though.
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Edited by noDucknewby
On 5/11/2023 at 9:58 AM, Rufus said:I don’t think staying in the PAC is viable unless we have no choice.
Here are my concerns:
1. The B1G just announced conference teams are now no longer required to play P5 non-conference games. Combine this with the fact that west coast recruiting is already covered with away games at USC and UCLA, it’s a safe bet few - if any - B1G teams will want to schedule Oregon. The SEC is likely expanding to a 9 game schedule and several schools already have a rivalry game with an ACC school. It’s a safe bet few - if any - SEC schools will want to schedule Oregon in a non-conference game.
2. Replacing USC and UCLA with G5 schools will weaken the perception of the PAC 12. Having few - if any - B1G or SEC teams interested in a non-conference game with the Ducks will weaken the perception of the total schedule. Very few at large CFP bids will come from the PAC.
3. The PAC 12 Champion is only guaranteed a spot in the CFP for two years. There is nothing to say the rules won’t change to benefit the B1G and SEC. I can see the P2 making deals with G5 conferences to pay them X amount of dollars for regular season away games in return for agreeing to whatever the B1G and SEC want to see happen to the CFP after the first two years.
4. The SEC and B1G will figure out how to monopolize NIL deals with the major sponsors. “Hey Fortune 500 companies, you want to brand yourself nationwide in college football? Ok, sign this exclusive NIL agreement with the B1G. You can decide which players you want to work with on this, but they must come from our conference.”
5. The B1G and SEC will become larger and more powerful when they raid the top brands and markets in the ACC. Even if Oregon sticks it out in the P12, we will fall further behind from this fact alone.
The good news in all of this is that Oregon is the 7th largest fan base in college football. The B1G is very likely to add us at some point. This does not end well if any other scenario plays out.
Spot on IMHO. I'd also add that teams outside the Power 2 may have a hard time hanging on to successful coaches when the new TV $ starts rolling in. Assuming Lanning is our guy, what happens when Purdue or Northwestern offers him $15-$20 million? This may seem far-fetched, but brace yourselves for a new round of inflation in coaches' salaries. I've said all along that eventually the money gap becomes a talent gap.
Personally I'm really hoping that the P12 stays together for this TV contract, adds a couple of members and let's the dust settle. We'll know a lot more about the CFP and the college football environment the next time around.
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I'm very encouraged about our defense, not so much about our QB play. Bo was pretty mediocre, but he always seems to rise to the occasion when needed and he just doesn't get rattled. Sorry, TT just does not instill confidence I'm really not seeing anything new here and Novosad looked liked a boy among men (huge caveat here, he should still be in high school). The other caveat on the QB play is that they were under pretty much constant pressure, hats off to the defensive line in particular they were getting pressure without blitzing for the most part.
The lack of a running game isn't that concering to me. Is it from a superior defensive line performance or an inferior offensive line performance? Probably a bit of both, but I feel pretty confident in both these position groups when we get our best players all on one side of ball.
We have legitimate deep threat receivers, and please just get Tez the ball in the open field, he'll do the rest!
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Well there's smoke for sure. There's a new UO president from the B1G, the P12 TV deal is dragging on and now the B1G has a new commissioner in place who may be anxious to make his mark. I don't see how any of those factors are favorable for P12 cohesion.
GK and the remaining 10's apparent "patience" and "unity" seem pretty hollow to me. Do I agree with the author of this post and his "sources"? Call me skeptical, but the longer this thing drags on the greater one or more of the remaining 10 members gets nervous and bolts, especially if the B1G or B12 decide to be more aggressive and sweeten the deal.
Each day with no TV deal tips the scale a little more IMHO.
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More Civil Wars? It Could Take Years to Schedule New Matchups
in Our Beloved Ducks
I'm no lawyer so I don't know how (if at all) changing conferences affects our non-conference agreements. What I do know is that these games get rescheduled all the time.
If I'm in charge of scheduling, the first thing I do is get rid of that 2-1 series with BSU and pencil in the rodents. If that requires a buyout, then so be it.
That gives until 2027 to figure out a more permanent solution.