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OST8
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Posts posted by OST8
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On 7/27/2023 at 11:08 PM, QuackAttack said:
You can't blame UT, they were looking out for their best interest and the PAC never had them, period! It's not like they had UT and then the LHN came in and UT backed out. Blame Larry Scott for the demise of the PAC!
Exactly! UT always does what UT wants, everyone else be damned.
What's interesting is they didn't have the vision to understand that when you do what's best both for you and the group, that's when you're actually doing what's best for you long term. They pulled the rug out from under their own feet and now they won't sniff a conference championship for a long long time.
UTs arrogance and self serving ways are what killed the SWC, and essentially the original XII conference, and a version of the PAC that would've been a power to this day.
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Let me start by saying that none of this makes me happy. I want the original XII back and for the SEC and BIG to stand pat as they were and the PAC to be as it was and survive. Schools like OR/WA State MATTER. It sucks to think of those schools getting left out in the cold so to speak.
Here's a weird take. PAC fans should take out their ire on.....The University of Texas. Hear me out. Back in 2011 (I think that was the year) from what I understand there was an offer from the PAC to Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State. The snag? The Long Horn Network. Texas had just inked a sweet deal with ESPN for the LHN and spurned the efforts put forth by the XII to start a network (the reason why Nebraska, Mizzou, aTm, and Colorado left).
During that time the PAC12 was putting together their network that would debut in 2012. They told Texas that they would have to give up their 3rd tier rights to supplement the PAC12 network. Texas said no. The deal crumbled. Had it gone through the PAC would have buried the XII and USC and UCLA would still be in the league.
Texas, to this point, has been a plague.
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I know you guys don't want to come to the XII and I get it. I just want to say that we'd love to have you and I think that IF (big if) Oregon and Washington came to the XII, then Florida State and Clemson would take a hard look at the XII when the ACC GOR expires. THAT conference would garner a media deal that would be competitive with the BIG and SEC. And at that point the conference would be rebranded (no longer the XII) and truthfully Oregon, Washington, Clemson, and Florida State wild be the flagship schools of the conference. I wouldn't mind Oklahoma State being in the second tier behind those four. Maybe a pipe dream...but a man can hope!
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Just stopped by to say I think it's going to be a really good super regional between the Cowgirls and Lady Ducks! Here's to a solid, competitive, and injury free series!
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I know I'm just an occasional visitor to this site and I don't know PA Duck at all, but I will be praying for her and her husband!
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On 3/6/2023 at 11:44 AM, Rufus said:
I agree that a backup plan is the Big 12. If the PAC deal is awful, it might be worth exploring joining the Big 12. Maybe. Maybe not.
I don’t agree that the B1G is a backup plan for anyone. If the B1G wants any PAC school, it doesn’t matter how much the new PAC contract might be. Those schools will join the B1G in a heartbeat.
My two pennies: Oregon will eventually be in the BIG along with UW. I know a lot of people think that the BIG would rather have UW and Stanford but I believe, when push comes to shove, Football/brand/rivalries drive this bus and Oregon brings (along with UW) all of those things. Now would USC have the pull or desire to keep Oregon out and make the BIG take Stanford instead of Oregon? You guys have a better feel for that.
Regardless, I do think the Ducks end up in the BIG so whether you stay in the PAC or go to the XII in the immediate future I think it's a temporary stop. My point is, you guys just need to "survive" the next 5 or so years and then you'll arrive at your destination.
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On 1/17/2023 at 4:54 PM, Flyin Vee said:On 1/31/2023 at 7:47 PM, Just Ducky said:
I totally agree with Haywarduc. There is no guarantee that moving to a different conference is the cure and there is not much track record of success. There are so many variables to consider which Oklahoma, Texas, usc, and UCLA are about to find out.
I do think however that the pack needs to address the situation and get some more power to the pack in the form of Additional teams. Waiting to long could be the final hole in the ship.
Truthfully...if both conferences can be viable I'd rather them stay as they are. Not because I wouldn't want Oregon or Washington but because with you guys in the conference it would be just that much harder to make the playoffs!blockquotlockquote widget
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On 1/31/2023 at 12:09 PM, noDucknewby said:
Fair points all.
Like it or not (I don't), but all conferences are mostly judged by the performance of their bluebloods. The Pac-12 has heard for years (annoyingly so) that they aren't relevant unless USC is good. Despite the fact Texas hasn't been relevant for a while now, they are still the conference bell-cow in perception. Oklahoma does have playoff appearances, but no wins. Like it or not both conferences take a shot in national perception with their most recognizable brands leaving. Sure we have Oregon and Washington, you have OKSt and TCU, but none of these programs are considered bluebloods by the rest of the country.
The advantage the B12 has had over the P12 in the past few years is that one B12 team has risen to the top with a record good enough to get them to the playoff. The P12 routinely cannibalizes itself, it seems every year a team seemingly headed to the playoff gets knocked off in November.
As for which conference is better? This is a bit of a cop-out, but really all conferences not named the B1G or SEC are on similar footing, struggling to stay relevant and maybe even to survive. Hats off to TCU for a great season, but honestly their playoff appearance seems more like a Cinderella one-off than an indication of the strength of the conference going forward. Yes Georgia was a beast and probably could have beaten anyone on that day, but damn that was an ugly beatdown. I guess the advantage that Oregon had was we had 12 games left in the season to redeem ourselves. TCU finishes the season with two losses and probably not a lot of momentum headed into 2023 IMHO.
From my perspective as a P12 guy I don't care much for the B12 commissioner coming in and acting like he can cherry-pick the P12 anytime he feels like it. Sure it's mostly posturing, but it pisses me off.
That said, the partnership between the P12 and the B1G is dissolving, so why not screw them and put a B12 team in the Rose Bowl instead? I'd really like to see more marquee matchups between the P12 and the B12, then we'd see who the better conference is. We'll get a bit of a feel for that when the Ducks head to Lubbock in September.
It is the (unfortunate) truth that bluebloods are used as the mark by which the conferences are judged. And going forward neither of our conferences will have one of those. I see it as a chance for some non-bluebloods that are in that next tier (Oregon/Utah/UW/oSu/TCU/Baylor) to stake a claim. We all will get a fair shot with the expanded playoff.
As for competing with the SEC/Big10...they will certainly have the monetary advantage which, in the age of NIL will certainly play a bigger role than it would have previously. (although that's where Oregon has a one up with Uncle Phil backing it). And it will still be possible for one of the other 3 conferences to make a run and snag a natty. On any given Saturday!
As for Yormark, I can totally see why you wouldn't care for him. Honestly, were the shoe on the other foot I would despise his arrogance. And I will say that it does feel good to have some aggressive, confident, forward thinking, non-reactionary leadership for once!
And I LOVE the idea of making the Rose Bowl a P12/XII matchup! I can promise you an Oregon/oSu Rose Bowl (for instance) would get very strong ratings.
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On 1/17/2023 at 5:01 PM, David Marsh said:
There is also the assumption that even the diminished Big-12 is going to be better than the Pac-10. I think TCU's National Championship game appearanced shows just how weak the Big-12 is going to be in the future without Texas and Oklahoma. He does say that the Pac will probably get a better media deal than the Big-12 but still I don't see the Big-12 being better at Football than the Pac in the near future.
I think the Pac will be surprisingly fine and maybe after one cycle of the media deal and if both LA schools are bleeding out financially from the travel and the exhaustion we might see them wanting to come back... probably not... but still it would be funny.
I stopped by this board to see the "insider" perspective on this whole Comcast fiasco (I agree that at the very least Larry Scott was careless).
Then I ran across this and...I am struggling with how to address this respectfully. The XII appearance (and drubbing) in the NC game shows how weak we will be w/o OU and Texas?
A few thoughts/questions:
1)Of ALL the teams in college football Oregon understands how good a fresh UGA team is. Right?
2)TCU beat (supposedly) the best the Big10 had to offer.
3)Over the past 5 seasons which conference has been stronger?
I do realize I see things through a XII lense. And I can say with assurance that had Oregon or Utah gone to the NC and got destroyed by UGA that I wouldn't come to the conclusion that that result showed how weak the PAC was going to be without the LA schools.
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On 8/2/2022 at 3:16 PM, OhioDuck said:
Not sure what the problem would be.
Just adding Houston and TCU/Baylor/TT and San Diego St. for S. Cal. would put the PAC in 8 of the top 20 markets in the country. With Portland at #21 that's 9 or the top 21.
An expansion into Texas makes a lot of sense from a marketing point of view, if they can make it happen.
I know that markets matter because of potential upside, but oSu has more alums in the DFW metroplex than TCU or Baylor. Just look at last years XII championship game in Dallas at Jerry World. At least 55-60% of the crowd was in orange.
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On 8/2/2022 at 9:49 AM, Pennsylvania Duck said:
This is the biggest worry. It's great to think about expanding the conference, but I don't think the dollars split so many ways is going to be enough to make each school grow. The main reason these schools are left behind is their media market doesn't add value.
Baylor, Ok State, and TCU would pull the viewership average of the PAC up. Houston wouldn't at first but would likely get there. I can't answer the question of if a media outlet would increase the per school payout or not if they joined. I will say this; those four schools would outperform AU, ASU, CU, WSU, and Or State. They would also outperform Cal but...Cal is in california so that may add value.
Also, stability is worth a TON. And I don't think there's any doubt that adding those school would provide stability.
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On 7/27/2022 at 10:17 PM, TRinnel said:
When Nebraska joined, we didn’t bring in enough new media market to ‘pay’ for a full member payout so it was tiered for a few years, then full payouts. I suspect Oregon would be in a similar situation. I would try not to look at it as a pay cut or a sign of disrespect, it’s just finances and full payouts would follow. All B1G schools get the same payouts nice ‘full’ members.
I’m assuming the LA market will bring in enough new revenue to warrant an immediate full membership.
We also didn’t join during a new media rights negotiation so that didn’t help. But I think 99% of Husker fans were just happy to get out of the Big 12 and away from Texas. We haven’t exactly been successful, but it’s stable and pays a lot. We were lucky to join at the time we did.
Personally, I would love to see Oregon and Washington get invites. Would make for some great games. I think it will happen. Good luck
You could actually say that Texas is the reason for much of the conference movement and instability as a whole. They weren't happy with the Southwest Conference. They became a part of the XII and wouldn't play ball to strengthen the conference instead of themselves when it came to a conference network (when they already had one of the biggest athletics budgets in the country). Essentially the set fire to the XII and when the smoke became intolerable they jumped ship to the SEC.
I will NOT miss being in a conference with the Longhorns. Good luck SEC.
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Hey if you guys get the call from the BIG I'll be cheering for you. Lord knows we'd jump to it if given the opportunity.
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On 7/26/2022 at 6:10 PM, CalBear95 said:
The challenge with any of these fan based media share results is that they often lack the methodology that backs out both double dipping as well as numbers driven by TX and OU (and SC and UCLA)
That is why content from The Athletic is more trustworthy than something some fan posts on the internets to show why some reporter just doesn’t get it.
That may not apply to what you referenced but the moral remains the same: trust non-expert driven data cautiously
Oh I totally agree with you in terms of the prattle that can be found at times (or many times) on twitter and the like. And if I'm honest, I would not peg Mandel nor the author of the article linked below as "experts" necessarily when it comes to media viewership statistics. However they are both a part of the associated press and thus have access to some data and the time to crunch those numbers.
The reason I put more stock in this articles figures is that it is a larger sample size...5 times the sample size of Mandel's article. So, for instance, the Ducks game with Ohio State last season has a MUCH greater impact on the final average than say TCU's game with Ohio State in 2018 because that outlier is watered down with 50 or more other "normal" games. Is even the 5 year look a perfect account of the viewership and worth of any one program? No. But I think it has more value than looking at a single season.
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TBH there may be more Oklahoma State fans in the DFW metroplex than TCU fans. OK State's enrollment hovers around 25K whereas TCU's hovers around 12K and I believe we have more alumni in DWF than we do in Oklahoma City or Tulsa.
I agree that pulling in Houston wouldn't be a bad idea (they do have a hx of being in a top league) and BYU is similar to ND in that they just have a very consistent national following.
If I'm honest the XII hasn't felt like the XII since Mizzou, Nebraska, Texas A&M, and Colorado left. I would that the PAC would not really feel like the PAC minus the LA schools but plus SDSU and UNLV. So to me, I don't really care what merges with who or even if we just scrap the whole thing and start afresh (The Continental Conference, The United Athletic Conference, etc). I just want a league that can at least bring in enough TV dollars to allow all it's programs to compete and stay relevant through all this mess.
I will say that looking at one year of TV numbers can be a little misleading. It all depends on how many games a certain team ends up with on one of the major networks vs. FS1/ESPN2 etc. I think I posted a link on this forum (somewhere ha) to an article where someone compiled all the TV viewership numbers over a 5 year period from 2015-2019 and things looked different than the numbers from last year. Not completely and totally different, but different.
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On 7/22/2022 at 2:20 PM, Wrathis said:
I don't disagree with this at all. Speaking in terms as an Oregon fan, I'd LOVE to have a bigger recruiting footprint in Texas while keeping Arizona, California and Nevada. The reason I'm discounting it though is b/c it doesn't look like the B12 is interested in a merger with the PAC(10).
As I've said before, personally I'd love it b/c as a resident of Texas, that would make seeing Oregon play MUCH easier and cheaper. However, it appears that the B12 is more interested in keeping what they have and adding the 4-corner schools than they are with merging with the PAC...
I think the issues are probably two schools from the PAC that don't want it (Standford/Cal) and there are two schools from the PAC that the XII doesn't want (OSU/WSU). I don't know that for certain but that's my guess as to why things stalled.
I get not wanting to leave any member behind. Honestly it makes me respect the remaining members of the PAC all the more. I wouldn't want to leave Iowa St or WVU behind either.
If it were up to me I'd merge with the PAC. Are some of the schools less than desirable when it comes to TV dollars? Sure. But I feel like the stability and overall gain makes it worth it.
Now...what to do with Standford and Cal not wanting to mix with the "Jones'"? I have no idea.
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On 7/22/2022 at 10:51 AM, Wrathis said:
I think you're 100% on point with this. The question on the table would be "is acquiring Oregon and Washington worth potentially losing Clemson, UNC, Florida State and Miami" and we all know the answer to that is a resounding "NO". You would have to have, in writing this time, a contract stating that with the GOR being renegotiated that all teams would stay in the ACC or have to pay egregious amounts of money to leave. We know the B1G doesn't honor their word and I'd have to believe the SEC would be willing to move heaven and earth to acquire Clemson and one of the other teams.
No, at this point I'd like to stay in the PAC12 by adding SDSU and UNLV. Then try and get a new media contract with Amazon or Apple etc that distributes funding on a weighted scale based on athletic performance. Say something like Football accounts for 65%, Basketball is 25% and Baseball is 10%. That should push schools into prioritizing revenue sports and perhaps lift the performance of the conference as a whole.
Colleges may be teaching parity in the classroom, but what I've seen them DO directly contradicts that. It's time to get real...
I think adding those two programs could be good. Especially SDSU because of the momentum they have going both competitively and infrastructurally. UNLV has a lot of work to do to even remotely look the part of the P5 program, but there's no denying the attractiveness of the LV market. Both of those programs could, over time, definitely be solid additions to the PAC financially.
However, I maintain that the strongest possible future would be some combination of the XII and the PAC. Even if that means we have to drop some of our incoming schools (as optimistic as I am about their futures) to be in the same conference with Oregon, Washington, the Arizona schools, and possibly Colorado and Utah (I'd list Stanford and Cal but I don't think they'd consider it). I just think that would provide the most stability, revenue, and respect at the national level.
Edit: And then, from that position of stability, we could really do work to entice ACC members when the time comes that they become available.
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On 7/21/2022 at 1:13 PM, 1Funduck said:
There is a real growing reality forming right now. The absurd seems to keep coming to mind. The four corners go to the Big12/16, with Oregon and Washington finding a home with the ACC or the B1G. B1G makes more sense long term if they will have us. But, the ACC would jump at the remaining pile of the PAC and pick at our carcass.
It would be monetarily beneficial for Oregon and Washington to move conferences, but, I would hate it. Another option is that UO and UW go to the Big12 as well and the rest of the schools get left on the trash heap.
Again, I don't like it. But, if these schools are chasing money then we have to put our love for the game on the shelf and look at this through the lense of $$. The ACC would/could project even more money. However, that media contract is an albatross.
So, here's my, maybe not so, absurd idea. Take the Big12 and the PAC and make a Super Conference. Call it the BIG PAC. Play 6 games within segment of conference with 2 crossovers. This leaves around 3 games for OOC games. 1 headliner per year and two cup cakes. This is harder than the SEC who likes to have 4 cupcakes and all at home each year.
There are many storied conferences that have drifted into obscurity and then faded completely away. I'm getting the feeling the PAC is on the verge of oblivian. Make no mistake, we are going to have to settle. The PAC is Not in a position of strength in any way shape or form. Maybe, this is a way to save it. The alternative is picking at 2 carcasses to make a solid Super Conference.
Either way, all of this is hard to swallow for this CFB fan.
I agree...it all sucks. I want to go back to the original Big12 days. That was all ruined by the University of Texas and we likely will never go back.
The only issue with a jump to the ACC is if they did accept Oregon and Washington (which I think they would do in general) they would have to remake the contract and as a result their GOR. In that case other schools would be open to negotiating which would mean that created a window for the BIG and the SEC to make their moves on the ACC. So you'd end up with a different conference than you started with.
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It totally could be a strategic move to make gains within the PAC. If that's the case, I feel like that's a bad move for those programs. You don't want to start dirtying up the waters if your intention is to stay with the PAC.
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On 7/21/2022 at 10:40 AM, McDuck said:
Looks like they are hedging their bet.
That would make some sense. I wouldn't have shared but they have over 125K followers so...can't be an out of nowhere media outlet. That was a big claim if they had next to nothing to go on! Might bite them in the backside!
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This might also be clickbait as I'm not sure how legit this outlet is but fwiw....
Colorado/Utah/Arizona/Arizona State Applying for XII
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Below is a link that shows some ballpark future TV contract figures that a statistics junkie put together based off of a legitimate estimate put together by Navigate who is an "entertainment and sports market research entity".
Certainly the reality won't be spot on with these projections but it may give a feel for how things could look.
Two thoughts:
1) if the PAC and XII did merge in some fashion I actually think we would overtake the ACC by a significant margin as the third largest TV revenue conference in college athletics
2) the SEC and BIG numbers are absolutely absurd and it would take a future merging of the top programs from the PAC, XII, AND ACC to come close to bridging that gap.
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Just wanted to hop on here and give my condolences. Such a tragic loss of a young man who was a son, brother, friend, and athlete who, from all accounts carried himself in a standup way. No words can sooth the hurt. Oklahoma State fans, unfortunately, know what that loss is like. Thoughts and prayers are with the Webb family and the Duck family.
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Man...I can't stand that superiority crap. I've grown up on a healthy dose of it from our brother institution down the road.
I hope you guys give them a nice kick in the backside on their way out the door this season. I'll be watching that game for sure.
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Ducks React to Move to Big Ten, Longer Travel to Games
in Our Beloved Ducks
Posted
Just wanted to stop by and say congrats. I believe you guys will do really well in the BIG.
The travel across all sports will be an issue for you guys for the next few years for sure, but once you get to the point where you're getting a full share it won't be an issue financially.
Now the impact it has on the student athletes is a whole other ballgame. I was a college athlete and went on some fairly long bus trips. But I was not traveling clear across the country and across several times zones. I have to say I do think that will have an impact.