Pac-10 Possible Expansion and What the Media Markets Would be for All of the Pac-16 Teams

[Jon Joseph]

This is a WAG and of course, assumes that the Pac-10 conference holds together. 

 

The media market size follows the name of each putative Pac-16 member. If this or something like this were to come to fruition I see 4 pods, 4 teams each, structure

 

NW - Oregon (Portland #22;) Oregon State (Portland #22;) Washington (Seattle #11;) Washington State (Spokane #67.)

 

West - CAL (SFO #10;) Stanford (SFO #10;) Fresno State (Fresno #53;) San Diego State (San Diego #30)

 

Central - Arizona (Tucson #65;) ASU (Phoenix #10;) UNLV (LAS #40;) Utah (SLC #29) Salt Lake coming in ahead of San Diego surprised me. 

 

East - CU (Denver #16;) SMU (Dallas #5;) Tulane (New Orleans #50;) UTSA ( San Antonio #31.) Note, if it was Rice instead of UTSA, the Houston market is the nation's 7th largest media market. But do we want a 2nd Stanford in the conference?

 

Having done this exercise, I think the media market size produces voodoo numbers compared to the actual eyeballs tuning in to watch the games. 

 

 

 

I just hope the Pac-10 holds together to allow expansion to happen. 

 

As Mr. FishDuck recently expressed, it is a good thing that George Kliavkoff is in Las Vegas because it looks like he is going to have to pull a media deal rabbit out of his hat. 

 

I realize that a number of proposed newbies do not fit the academic bill. But I am afraid that ship has sailed leaving behind AAU members Iowa State and Kansas and Tier 1 Research University Houston. And a number of schools with better academic rankings than existing Pac-10 members. (SIGH.)

[Legion]

While I do like your pod format, I have come to the conclusion that this will not save the conference. The addition of these institutions, while the best combination of available tv markets and competitive programs, they will not move the needle for tv executives. In other words, these schools won't increase the tv revenue needed to dissuade Oregon and Washington from bolting when, not if, the Big Ten comes calling. Eventually, the conference gets poached even with the addition of these institutions.

 

Personally, I am holding out for a merger with the ACC. This merger should garner enough monetary compensation from the networks that the top dogs would be content, especially considering Notre Dame's alliance with the ACC. This would ensure the survival of the conference and the vast majority of its members. This will never happen until the ACC's current deal expires. Which makes me wonder if the pod system might be a life line the conference needs until the conference can make a bigger splash, such as a merger with the ACC down the road. 

 

Nonetheless, do you think Cal and Stanford would allow Fresno St. to waltz into the conference? I don't think so. It's unfortunately because Fresno St. has the better football product.

[Jon Joseph]

On 5/11/2023 at 1:09 AM, Legion said:

While I do like your pod format, I have come to the conclusion that this will not save the conference. The addition of these institutions, while the best combination of available tv markets and competitive programs, they will not move the needle for tv executives. In other words, these schools won't increase the tv revenue needed to dissuade Oregon and Washington from bolting when, not if, the Big Ten comes calling. Eventually, the conference gets poached even with the addition of these institutions.

 

Personally, I am holding out for a merger with the ACC. This merger should garner enough monetary compensation from the networks that the top dogs would be content, especially considering Notre Dame's alliance with the ACC. This would ensure the survival of the conference and the vast majority of its members. This will never happen until the ACC's current deal expires. Which makes me wonder if the pod system might be a life line the conference needs until the conference can make a bigger splash, such as a merger with the ACC down the road. 

 

Nonetheless, do you think Cal and Stanford would allow Fresno St. to waltz into the conference? I don't think so. It's unfortunately because Fresno St. has the better football product.

I do think a media deal close to or exceeding that of the B12 will be consummated.

 

And I think the expanded CFB playoff, which I expect will go to 16 teams in 2016 and the NCAA Tournament going to the proposed 80 teams will help the conference survive. I also expect that Oregon will insist on Pac teams that make the CFB playoff and the NCAA Tournament will get a bigger piece of the pie instead of an equal share for every conference member.

 

I do hope that 50% of the CFB and CBB games are broadcast on a streaming outlet. This may be dicey at first but will open a window for far more people worldwide to watch Oregon sports. The Pac Network having but 13M subscribers has been an anchor around Puddles neck.

 

I do not see how a merger with the ACC could possibly work travel-wise. And sooner rather than later, I expect Clemson, FSU, and possibly UNC and Miami to be playing in the SEC.

 

One thing for certain, the Ducks should want nothing to do with the crummy ACC media deal that Clemson and FSU have already called out. 

 

Personally, I want nothing to do with enabling Notre Dame to keep its independent status. The 'conference' of Notre Dame should not have a playoff vote and should be required to join a conference or at the very least required to play 13 regular season games. With 12 games ND could often slip into the playoff ahead of teams that play 13 games including the conference champ game.

[Jon Joseph]

I would like to see an ACC - Pac Challenge in football and basketball.

 

For football, it would be a home-and-home series. 

 

Both series would be more easily formatted if the Pac-10 were to add 4 teams. SDSU, UNLV, SMU, Tulane?