Stanford Review

[UtahDuck]

Oregon @ Stanford 12:30 PM PT ABC

Oregon is an 8 point favorite

 

Record: 2020 4-2

2021 2-2

 

Notable losses:

 

Walker Little OT Pick 45

Davis Mills QB 67

Paulson Adebo CB 76

Drew Dalman C 114

Simi fehoko WR 179

Foster Sarell UDFA

 

Injuries:

Branson Bragg RG out

Ethan Bonner CB Out

EJ Smith RB out

Austin Jones RB Questionable

Casey Filkins RB questionable

Zahran Manley CB Doubtful

 

Recruiting and Transfers(247):

 

Stanford has been falling behind in recruiting over the last ~5 years. They were once a guaranteed look for a top 25 class with the occasional year putting them in the top 20/15. In the last 4 years they have recruited 2 top 25 classes and the other 2 were outside of the top 40. A significant drop off considering what they averaged for over a decade.

 

The other issue I am seeing with Stanford is that their bread and butter used to be recruiting 5 star Oline and then rushing behind a very smart and physical oline(that was well coached). Well Stanford hasn’t recruiting a 5 star lineman since 2017 and It is becoming more apparent in the level of talent they have.

 

Offense:

 

Right now this Stanford has the 101st overall offense. At 347 YPG and 14 offensive touchdowns. This is supported by the 112th Rushing offense(112YPG) and 63rd Passing offense(234YPG).

 

They started the first game of the season using a 2 QB system with West and McKee but after west through 2 INT’s they have opted to use McKee the rest of the way out. McKee clearly has all the physical tools to move the ball down field and with a smart head he currently has an ESPN passer rating of 164.

 

With that said the offensive line gives little to like in both the run and pass game and Mckee usually has to throw to his first or second read and is relying on power forward sized WR’s to box out defenders and make catches.

 

Defense:

 

Stanford’s defense is bad at 85th in the nation. They have allowed 14 TD’s this year and over 401YPG. This is mostly due to their rushing defense allowing 209YPG and over 5YPRush. This is mostly due to an in ability to contain the perimeter and bad defensive play calling.

 

On top of this the opposing QB’s have plenty of time to pass the ball. Allowing even young QB’s enough time to sit in the pocket and pick the Stanford defense apart.

 

Game Expectations:

 

Oregon will probably do what Stanford did in the Harbaugh and early Shaw period of Stanford. Clock management and run the ball. That’s it offensively for Oregon. Obviously we will sprinkle in some passes into the game but I expect most of that to come off play action to keep the Stanford defense more honest in the run game.

 

Defense is honestly going to be more or less of the same. Zone coverage forcing Stanford to drive the length of the field. The issue I see in this is that we will absolutely need to get pressure on McKee, the easiest way to stop him from completing to his Power Forwards is to hit him as he throws or force him to throw away. I hope Thibs is back and is able to actually play as Ithink he will be crucial in helping our defense.

[Jon Joseph]

A+.

 

Thanks Utah.

 

UCLA manhandled Stanford at the LOS. Ducks should do the same. Stanford was only in the game because of the same DB break downs that the Bruins showed vs Fresno.

[Charles Fischer]

Your pre-game reviews are outstanding, and this is no exception.  The injuries in the defensive secondary makes me wonder if the Oregon passing game might gain some confidence to balance the expected running game?

 

Thanks again for these!

[UtahDuck]

On 10/1/2021 at 1:44 PM, Charles Fischer said:

The injuries in the defensive secondary makes me wonder if the Oregon passing game might gain some confidence to balance the expected running game?

 

I have no doubt that oregon could probably pass all over this stanford Defense but... this is a cristobal lead team and he will run the ball especially when sees the weakness that is the run defense of stanford's front 6. I just think cristobal will want to limit possessions in this game, especially When your own QB can't complete 50% of his passes that is way to many stopped clocks. Also when you pass the ball 2 of the 3 possible outcomes are bad...(i need to state I don't actually believe this but I do understand this mindset)

 

I think the UCLA game is likely the key to beating stanford vs the USC game. First both teams ran very very well against Stan. USC put up 185 yds on 33 carries where UCLA put up 204yds on 51 carries. On an actual per carry basis, USC was much better. This passing offense from USC led to a significantly worse 3rd down percentage than UCLA and one more turnover. Also oregon's Defense should be better in not letting the two big plays that UCLA allowed and will force stanford to march the ball the field length.