Jon Joseph Moderator No. 1 Share Posted October 26, 2023 (edited) On All Hallows Eve, the CFB rankings will turn away from the AP Poll, the Coaches Poll, and all other polls, with the first release of the College Football Playoff Committee Top 25. (For these takes, all rankings shown are according to the Week 9 AP Poll.) ............................................................................................................................................................................... Based On the Remaining Schedules, Which Pac-12 Team has the Easiest Path to the Conference Champ Game? I perhaps, dwell too much on schedules. You have to play the teams on the schedule and there is no central CFB authority with the power to balance the teams' strength of schedule. CFB scheduling is ad hoc. 5 of the Top 10 Week 9 ranked teams have yet to defeat a currently ranked Top 25 team in 2023. In the preseason I complained about the send-off scheduling gift the Pac-12 was handing to UCLA. In 2023, UCLA is the beneficiary, yet again, of the California scheduling agreement, Like USC in 2022, UCLA in 2023 does not play Oregon and Washington. To date, 23.UCLA is 5-2 overall, and 2-2 in the conference. The Bruins's two losses have come against 11. Oregon State, and 13. Utah with both games played away from the Rose Bowl. The Strength of Record to date for Pac-12 champion contenders - 4. Washington, 10. Utah, 16. Oregon, 20. Oregon State, 28. USC, and 39. UCLA. Oregon, USC, and Washington have 3 games remaining against ranked conference opponents. Oregon State has 2 games remaining against ranked conference opponents. UCLA has 1 game left, versus USC in the Coliseum. I will not be surprised if a 2-loss UCLA slips into the title game in Las Vegas. Scheduling matters. ............................................................................................................................................................................. To date, Oregon has the best-balanced attack in the conference. 553 Yards Per Game. 326 Passing. 227 Rushing. #1 in the nation at 6.8 yards per run. But how do the contenders stack up on defense? Below are the current 2023 national Stop Rate Rankings, including the percentage of a team's Stop Rate success. (Stop Rate measures possessions on defense where the opposing team is forced to punt, turns the ball over, or, turns the ball over on downs.) Also shown is the number of wins vs. Week 9 Top 25 opponents. 4. UCLA - 80% - Zero 9. Utah - 76.5% - One - At 24. USC 24. Washington - 71.8% - One - Versus 8. Oregon (RATS! Or, should I say FLEAS!) 40. Oregon - 68.3% - Zero 52. Oregon State - 65.6% - Two - versus 13. Utah, and 23. UCLA 68. USC - 62% - Zero These rankings are not adjusted for the opponents' strength on offense. Yes, Oregon State has 2 Top 25 wins but OSU played a crummy out-of-conference schedule and was exposed on the road at Washington State. .............................................................................................................................................................................. Week 9 Top 25 teams on upset alert. Ranked on Ranked. 8. 6-1 Oregon -6.5 At 6-1. Utah. I believe the Ducks will prevail in SLC and end the regular season 0-6 slide versus Top 25 ranked teams on the road or at a neutral site. But the game will be a rock fight. 18. 6-1 Louisville -4.5 Vs. 20. 5-2 Duke. Duke QB Riley Leonard is day-to-day. If he plays I think Louisville could be in trouble. Other Top 25 ranked teams at risk. 11. 6-1 Oregon State -3.5 At 4-3 Arizona - If Arizona is not the best 3-loss team in the country it has to be close. Redshirt Freshman, QB Noah Fafita, has been outstanding in place of the injured starter de Laura. And this season's Wildcat team has stepped it up on defense. I am happy that Puddles will be flying to Tempe and not Tucson. 1. 7-0 Georgia -14.5 Vs. 5-2 Florida. 5-2 Tennessee lost to UF and is ranked with the same record. Why? I will not bow down to Washington, ever, but I will bow down to UGA TE Brock Bowers who is likely out for the remainder of the regular season. How will UGA fare without BB going against an improved UF QB, Grahm Mertz, who is near the top in completion percentage? 6. 7-0 Oklahoma -9.5 At 5-2 Kansas - The Sooners would sooner forget last Saturday's close win vs. UCF in Norman. Kansas has a bad defense but puts up a lot of points at home. Will Oklahoma's shaky play on defense vs. UCF continue in Lawrence? 7. 6-1 Texas -18.5 Vs. 5-2 BYU. Texas was the other of the B12 Golddust twins to have a close shave last week at Houston. Coach Sark's alma mater comes to Austin playing the best of the B12 newbies. Texas QB, Quinn Ewers is out with a shoulder injury. The Texas run game should be enough to prevail over BYU but this could be interesting. 3. 7-0 Ohio State -14.5 At 5-2 Wisconsin. The Badgers, down 18-0, scored a terrific comeback win last Saturday at Illinois. The Ohio State D and WR Marvin Harrison won a rock fight against Penn State. Will the Buckeyes suffer a letdown on the road? With Iowa hosed by the refs in its loss to Minnesota last week, Wisconsin is now in 1st place in an abysmal B1G W. I think Bucky will Jump Around before Ohio State pulls this game out late. ................................................................................................................................................................................ Utah has won 18 games in a row in SLC. The last time Oregon won in SLC was in 2016, 30-28 behind Justin Herbert's 4 2nd-half TD passes. My cardiologist is on-call for this game. Win, and Oregon could be the Playoff Committee's top-ranked 1-loss team. But we know the Committee loves 1-loss Bama, bye this week before playing LSU next Saturday, and the Texas brand matters. GO DUCKS! Edited October 26, 2023 by Jon Joseph 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven A Moderator No. 2 Share Posted October 26, 2023 On 10/26/2023 at 11:07 AM, Jon Joseph said: UCLA has 1 game left, versus USC in the Coliseum. Rated now, but not when the game is played (I think you'd agree). Heck sc might not be rated when we play them since ewe dub gets them first. A W v Cal shouldn't move them up much if at all. And then we are robbed of a 25 W when they come to Autzen. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
