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Jon Joseph

2024 College Football - Chip Kelly and the Ohio State Run Game

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I love reading a variety of opinions regarding the posts we ponder on OBD. I was a bit taken aback by the response to Chip heading to Columbus to be the Ryan Day's and the Buckeyes OC. Many commentators opined that Chip is over-the-hill and washed up. In 2022 UCLA had the No. 4 ranked run offense in the nation behind RB Charbonnet and QB DTR, both on NFL rosters today. The run attack dropped to 32 in 2023 but the personnel was not as solid both in the skill positions and on the OL.

 

The tOSU OL is coached by Coach Frye who worked with Chip for two seasons at UCLA. Both know what the other wants in the run game. The QB, Howard, is a legitimate dual threat who won a B12 title in 2022 and was the second team All B12 QB (behind OBD's Gabriel) in 2023. As noted in this attached article, the RB position at Ohio State is more than solid. Yes, tOSU WR Harrison is off to the NFL but plenty of studs return including 2024's No. 1 recruit. 

 

Of the four teams' with FanDuel projected odds of 10.5 wins coming into 2024, Ohio State, based on the 2023 opponent's results (imprecise, I know), has the easiest schedule.

 

Ohio State - 83 - 71 / 8 home games.

 

Texas - 84 - 69  / 7 home games

 

Georgia - 90 - 63 / 7 home games

 

OREGON - 101 - 57 - 7 home games.

 

Chip will have a lot of shiny new toys to play with in 2024.

 

THEATHLETIC.COM

Kelly isn't an elite recruiter, but his offensive mind could bring a successful scheme to Columbus.

 

Without the 'other stuff.' Fundraising, recruiting, PR point man, etc. 

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Get ready for a battle of The O's.

 

THEATHLETIC.COM

Seven teams in the new-look Big Ten finished with a top-25 ranking, led by newcomer Oregon at No. 3 and Ohio State at No. 5.

 

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2-0, let alone 3-0 against tOSU should we meet in the playoffs, would be tough.  It'll be about the D.  Our O should be equally potent along with Texas.

 

Year 3 Lanning and the staff have to coach it up, and out coach on game days.  SOS will be tough, 8 straight conference games, longer flights, but we can do it

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THEATHLETIC.COM

Kelly’s reputation as a play caller inside football remains strong, making him an intriguing fit at Ohio State. Why is he tough to defend?

 

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Remember, when Chip was hired at UCLA, I predicted that he would be a solid eight or nine win kind of coach, “Mora-or-less.”

 

It turns out he was a 500 coach, even below what I projected.

 

I maintain my recent prediction, that the Ohio State offense will not average over 35 points per game in 2024. He is not terrible, but I would take Stein over him in a heartbeat.  For greater scoring now, and higher upside, IMHO.

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Mr. FishDuck

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Charles, I appreciate and respect your thoughts. 35 points in the B1G would not be all that bad. 

 

Penn State led the conference last season at 36.2 points, followed by Michigan 35.9 and Ohio State 3rd with 30.5 points. The high for tOSU was 63 points vs W. KY. Low, 3 points vs. Mizzou in the Cotton Bowl. A game where Ohio State basically had no QB. The D finished giving up an average of 11.2 points a game and held Mizzou way below the Tigers average in the Cotton Bowl loss.

 

Horses for courses. I agree that Will Stein is a better fit at Oregon than Kelly would be. But I think that Kelly reuniting with Ryan Day and OL coach Frye will be a great fit. Far better than I think the Buckeyes would have been with O'Brien at OC.

 

In 2023 OH ST had the No. 2 Blue Chip Roster behind Alabama and the No. 3 composite roster behind Bama and Georgia. It will be close to the same rankings in 2024. 

 

In 2023, Ohio State played Notre Dame OOC. In 2024, OH St plays 3 G5 teams out of conference. In 2024 Oregon plays teams that finished 101-57 in 2023. In 2024 Ohio Stat plays teams that finished 83 -71 in 2023. Oregon does not play Portland State in 2024 and may get Liberty in the 1st round if seeded No. 5 in 2024's playoff but is more likely to face a better 1st round opponent. These two games helped tilt the overall scoring numbers materially in Oregon's favor. Had CFB had a 12-team PO in 2023, Oregon's 1st round opponent would have been the Missouri team Ohio State lost to in the Cotton Bowl. In 2024 Ohio State plays 8 games in Columbus where it does not lose many games. 

 

The UCLA O finished 4th in the country in 2022 with the kind of talent on O (QB DTR, RB Charbonnet) that Kelly will have at his disposal in 2024. Like UCLA in 2023, Ohio State had issues at QB that it did not have with Heisman finalists Fields and Stroud. I think it will be a close-run thing in 2024 to see which of Oregon and Ohio State puts the better O on the field. With the possible exception of USC, I think these two will battle to see who leads the B1G in O in 2024. 

 

OT: I think the Ducks will play very good D in 2024 but I think Ohio State has a very good shot of leading the nation in D in 2024.

 

I think 2024 will be the first of many seasons where the 2 Os battle it out for B1G supremacy. And I think the Buckeyes O will be much improved from 2023. 

Edited by Jon Joseph
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It seemed like Ohio State tried to be more physical, but they still ranked 83rd in rushing yards. UCLA was 16th, and they passed for under 3,000 yards. The issue with Ohio State is their line however. But lineman prefer run heavy sets, it's easier. Especially if your QB is a statue that doesn't process zone coverages very well.

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