Jon Joseph Moderator No. 1 Share Posted May 7 (edited) Peterson: The ceiling for each Big Ten team in 2024 SATURDAYTRADITION.COM Setting the ceiling for each Big Ten team in 2024. The Two Os both have a 12-0 ceiling. And here Is the Big Tradition's take on the 5 most difficult out-of-conference schedules. Hammerin’ the B1G: Ranking the B1G’s 5 hardest nonconference schedules in 2024 SATURDAYTRADITION.COM These key nonconference schedules will play a major role in the race to the College Football Playoff. No Os on this list. Edited May 7 by Jon Joseph 1 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyToBeADuck No. 2 Share Posted May 7 Jon, thanks for posting these 2 articles. They give us old Ducks fans a chance to learn a little more about our new conference opponents. Personally the OOC games will not affect the BIG title chase but they will affect CFP seeding. Michigan, tOSU, Penn State, uscsuck and Oregon all have a great chance to go 8-1 or 7-2 in conference play. IMHO 3 of these five or maybe 4 will make the 12 team playoff. Assuming these 5 teams beat the teams they should beat... Then Michigan has 3 top teams on the schedule.. tOSU, Oregon and Texas. Win 2 of those 3 and 11-1 Michigan will be invited. A win over Texas could determine which Power 2 gets 4 invites. Wolverines should beat our Ducks in Ann Arbor in a fierce nail-biter tOSU has a soft schedule. Only Michigan, Oregon and PSU truly stand in the way of a 12-0 season. Oregon has the best shot of upsetting the Buckeyes. But a 11-1 Buckeye team is a lock. PSU does not play MIchigan or Oregon, only USC and tOSU. 11-1 for the Nittany Lions is a reality. USC and PSU winner may get the 4th invite to the CFP. USC has one difficult schedule. They face LSU, Michigan, PSU and ND. A win against LSU and PSU and a 10-2 season could put the trojanless wonders in the playoff. We all know they are entitled to an invite.A win against LSU helps decide which P2 conference gets 4 schools. Oregon has the talent to go 12-0. Losing to anyone besides Michigan or tOSU in 2024 is unacceptable. The Ducks split with the 2 bluebloods and 11-1 gets an invite. 2 caveats to this uninformed projection....... 1. No one really knows how the committee will rank or seed the teams. Going to be some well deserving 10-2 teams left out 2. No one really knows how usc or oregon will play in a cold, frigid snowy game in Wisconsin. For those of you who have experienced the weather in the great lakes, well it csn cut to the bone. Wisconsin gets a crack at Alabama at an upset would set the CFP on its hesd. Gonna be such an exciting, nerve wracking, rollercoaster ride. Go Ducks........ 2 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Author Moderator No. 3 Share Posted May 7 (edited) HappyToBeADuck Posted 12 hours ago Jon, thanks for posting these 2 articles. They give us old Ducks fans a chance to learn a little more about our new conference opponents. ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... Thank you, Happy. Saturday Tradition is the B1G's Saturday site, it's free, and well worth checking out. Great take and one point you made that should be emphasized is that no one knows how the PO Committee with a 12-team field will deal with SOS, if the Committee deals with SOS at all. Historically, it's been all about Ws + Ls and that's it, except for: Do not let your stud QB suffer a late injury when the SEC's PO appearance is on the line. Michigan has the 5th most difficult schedule in 2024. Oregon has the 11th most difficult schedule exacerbated by playing 8 games in a row without an idle week. The last 4 games in this gauntlet include trips in November to the Eastern time zone to play Michigan and a trip to the Central time zone to play Wisconsin. Missouri's schedule is ranked as the 66th most difficult out of 134 G5/P4 teams. Missouri has the easiest schedule in the SEC, only two preseason top 25 teams are on Mizzou's schedule: at Bama and home vs. Oklahoma. If Missouri finishes 10-2 and Michigan and Oregon 9-3, with no 'bad losses' what will the committee do? With the SEC continuing to play 8 conference games in 2025, and with no change in the schedule except for home conference games being away games, Mizzou will again have an easy schedule. In 2024, Missouri's P4 opponent is Boston College in Columbia. In 2025, Kansas visits Mizzou. The other six OOC games are scheduled wins against Cupcakes. In addition to the critical element of being chosen as one of seven at-large teams, seeding will matter. Joel Klatt, with ties to the B1G and not the SEC, predicts that five SEC teams will make the 2024-26 PO field and four B1G teams will make the field. On the surface, this appears to be reasonable. However, with the way the seeding works out, Texas would play the G5 team in Austin, Ole Miss would play Penn State in Oxford, Alabama would play Michigan in Tuscaloosa, and Oregon, the one SEC outsider with a 1st-round home game would host Missouri. I stand by what I have posted before. I believe a 12-team field will cause the committee more headaches for the next two seasons than the committee dealt with the last ten seasons with four teams except for 2014-15 and 2024-25. I believe the PO selections in 2024-25 could easily lead to schools mutually agreeing to drop difficult OOC games. And if SOS does not matter, why should the ACC and the SEC play more than eight conference games? In 2025, Oregon plays possible B12 defending champion Oklahoma State in Autzen. Oregon is scheduled to play Oklahoma State in Stillwater, where the Cowboys rarely drop a game, in 2026. Why play OK State instead of San Jose State at home in 2025 and 2026? Does it make sense to play a road game versus a difficult opponent than a home game versus a lesser opponent? In odd years, Oregon will play five B1G road games. IMO, that's enough difficult games. Does it make sense for USC, in addition to the game at Notre Dame, to play Ole Miss, Ohio State to play Texas, and Michigan to play Oklahoma in Norman in 2025 as currently scheduled? Win the B1G and you are in even with an FCS team and two G5 teams on the schedule. A lot of uncertainty. One thing I do believe is close to a certainty is that the PO format will be adjusted come 2026-27. Thanks again for the great comment. Edited May 7 by Jon Joseph 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Author Moderator No. 4 Share Posted May 7 Going deeper into this 'best-case' (BC) analysis. With the PO expanding to 12 teams, it is not as meaningful as in prior seasons but BC would see 14 of the 18 B1G teams being bowl eligible. BC, the Ducks' B1G opponents would be a collective 67-41. Three opponents are projected to have losing records, Michigan State, Purdue, and UCLA. Oregon plays seven home games. Five conference home games. Oregon has no P4 OOC games. BC, Ohio State's B1G opponents would be a collective 70 and 38 Three opponents are projected to have losing records, Indiana, Purdue, and Michigan State. Ohio State plays eight home games. Five conference home games. Ohio State has no P4 OOC games. Ohio State and Oregon share three common conference opponents: Michigan, Michigan State, and Purdue. This is the nature of a conference where seven of the eighteen member schools are not on the schedule. This is also the case in the SEC. BC - Iowa, Michigan, Ohio State, Oregon, and Penn State, all at 10-2 or better, would be on the playoff committee's radar. No P4 opponent OOC will not matter if Oregon or Ohio State finish 12-1 with a B1G title. Oregon or Ohio State would be the 1st or 2nd seed and have a first-round bye. With two losses, the B1G champ will still be seeded in the top four with a first-round bye. Georgia finishes 11-2 and perhaps an OOC win over Clemson would give the Dawgs the 1st seed over an 11-2 Oregon or Ohio State but being seeded 1st instead of 2nd does not mean all that much in the 12-team playoff format. SC could finish 10-2 and be in the playoffs. USC has a Blue Chip roster. Michigan and Penn State are SC's only conference opponents with Blue Chip rosters and Penn State visits SC on the same day Oregon plays Ohio State, 10/12/24. With both games being played in the Pacific time zone the SC/PSU game could be moved to Friday night with this conflict. The Saturday before this game, PSU plays UCLA in Happy Valley, and SC trips to Minnesota. B1G Fun coming up. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
