Jon Joseph Moderator No. 1 Share Posted July 4 ESPN SP+ maven Bill Connolly has weighed in with an SP+ by-the-numbers take on how teams should perform in their new conference home. (Bill's article on ESPN+ is behind a paywall.) You will note a difference in SP+ strength-of-schedule (SOS) rankings and the run-of-the-mill rankings. Unlike Sports Illustrated (SI) which uses a team's opponents' records in 2023 to value SOS, SP+ is a forward-looking metric that values a team's SOS by what SP+ says a team should play like in 2024. Following the money, I am focusing on the six teams moving on up to the Power 2; the B1G, and the SEC. Keeping with the $pirit of E$(ec)PN, let's begin with the $EC newbies, the Oklahoma Sooners and the Texas Longhorns. OKLAHOMA - SP+ 2024 15th/ 2023 17th Wins - 7.5/SEC wins - 3.6 SOS - 2024 3rd/ 2023 52nd A much more difficult SOS 'welcomes' the Sooners to the SEC. Six of the eight SEC opponents are SP+ ranked 16th or better. Oklahoma is moving from a '2-team conference' which it dominated to the deepest conference in the USA. And with the SEC punting on adding a conference game to play nine in a season and duplicating the 2024 conference schedules in 2025 but for a change of venue, Oklahoma gets to do this again next season. Plus, in 2025, Michigan comes to Norman for an out-of-conference (OOC) game. TEXAS - SP+ 2024 4th/ 2023 6th Wins - 9.9/ SEC wins 6.4 SOS - 2024 14th/2023 33rd Per Bill Connolly - "The only reason the Longhorns are ranked 14th in SOS is because of a nonconference trip to Michigan in Week 2. Texas does face a tough-as-it-gets visit from SP+ No. 1 ranked Georgia the Saturday after the Red River Rivalry Game vs, Oklahoma, but the only other SP+ top-20 SEC opponent on the schedule is the last regular game of the season in College Station vs. Texas A+M." Texas is flying into the SEC in 1st Class. In addition to playing Texas in Dallas, Oklahoma welcomes Tennessee and Alabama to Norman and visits Auburn, Ole Miss, Missouri, and LSU. Whew! That's the Coach seat next to the lavatory in the back of the plane. Sports Illustrated 2024 SOS ranking - Oklahoma 11/ Texas 49. The B1G Story - Welcome OBD and 3 Other Newbies UCLA Bruins - SP+ 2024 26th/ 2023 27th Wins - 6.2/ B1G Wins - 4.4 SOS - 2024 13th/ 2023 62nd You will recall, perhaps, that in 2023 UCLA did not play a P5 team OOC and also missed playing Oregon and Washington. UCLA takes the B1G-gest step up in the SP+ 2024 SOS rankings, 49 spots. The Bruins play LSU in Death Valley. (The week before playing OBD in LA.) UCLA's last regular season game in 2024 is against a good Fresno State team in LA. UCLA and new head coach DeShaun Foster, open the season playing Hawaii in Honolulu. Later in the season, the Bruins play Rutgers in New Jersey.; the farthest a college team will travel between games in 2024. In total, UCLA will fly 26,762 miles in 2024 to play six away games. Oregon's first B1G game will be played against old foe UCLA in LA on Saturday, September 28th. SP+ has UCLA higher ranked in the preseason than any preseason poll I have seen. USC Trojans - SP+ 2024 21st/ 2023 31st Wins - 6.4/ B1G Wins - 4.8 SOS - 11th/ 2023 - 23rd Bill Connolly: "USC is looking at only a 71% chance of qualifying for a bowl game." Yes, SC has a very tough schedule in 2024. SI ranks the Trojans schedule as the 2nd most difficult in the land. However, in 2024, SC does not play B1G champ favorites Ohio State and Oregon. SC plays at Michigan and a weakened Washington team in Seattle but plays Penn State (the Saturday after PSU plays UCLA in Happy Valley) and Wisconsin in LA, and misses a tough-as-nails-on-D Iowa team. It is conceivable that SC could drop the OOC games vs. LSU and Notre Dame and still qualify for the B1G Champ game. Mr. FishDuck and I have chuckled over a possible SC/Oregon B1G Champ Game on December 7th in Indianapolis. This would be a Day of Infamy for the traditional B1G schools; especially, the Ohio State University. The Other School Up North SP+ 2024 35th/ 2023 13th [SP+ did not like all of those 1-score wins] Wins - 6.5/ B1G Wins 3.8 SOS 2024 16th/ 2023 12th In its final seven games in the 2024 season, Who W plays seven teams, including the Ducks, Yuck, Yuck, Yuck, SP+ ranked 26th or better. Jedd Fisch is bringing in a quality QB in Will Rogers, who never met a Mike Leach play call he didn't like, along with a couple of big-name coaching sons of guns: Brennan Carroll and Steve Belichick. With a roster well beyond decimated, Jedd is going to need the help. However, Jedd sticks around Seattle and does not flee to his alma mater Florida, or elsewhere, and he will get the Huskies back to barking. The ultimate game of the 2024 regular season should get Danno off of the 0-3 UW whitewash. OREGON (Give It Up For OBD!) SP+ 2024 3rd/ 2023 3rd - (SP+ at the end of the 2023-24 season liked Puddles better than Bevo and that Flea Magnet Up North) Wins - 10.4/ B1G Wins 7.5 SOS - 2024 26th/ 2023 42nd [SI SOS 2024 - Oregon 5th/ Ohio State 57th] In 2024, Oregon is the only Power 4 team that will play eight games in a row without a break. Including the OOC game versus Boise State, the Ducks will play six (6). half the schedule, games against teams in the SP+ top 40. Puddles will be playing plenty of 'Quad 1' games. ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ Happy 4th OBD Campers + Get Ready For Some B1G Fireworks! 1 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Author Moderator No. 2 Share Posted July 4 Are Texas, Oklahoma ready for SEC? 'Adapt or die' moment arrives as Longhorns, Sooners make historic move - CBSSports.com WWW.CBSSPORTS.COM Conference realignment kicked off on Monday as the Longhorns and Sooners officially migrated to the SEC ranks Some guy named Dennis weighs in. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charles Fischer Administrator No. 3 Share Posted July 4 On 7/4/2024 at 12:04 PM, Jon Joseph said: It is conceivable that SC could drop the OOC games vs. LSU and Notre Dame and still qualify for the B1G Champ game. Mr. FishDuck and I have chuckled over a possible SC/Oregon B1G Champ Game on December 7th in Indianapolis. This would be a Day of Infamy for the traditional B1G schools; especially, the Ohio State University. The B1G Fans, Pundits and Fox if that happened... 1 Mr. FishDuck Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
