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Charles Fischer

The Athletic: 100,000 Game Simulations to Determine Preseason Ranking...and the Ducks

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OK, for a buck a month--their stuff at The Athletic is well worth it. (Of course this forum is for free, so what is ITS value?) Anyway, here are some quotes below...(And Oregon is No. 3!)

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I use play-by-play data to make a projection for each college football team. The projections are not only made up of box score statistics but also returning production, recruiting rankings and transfers. These projections aren’t who the model believes is most likely to win the national championship or make the playoff — more on those in the coming weeks — but instead an overall power ranking.

 

Using the outputs of this model, I’ve built an algorithm to simulate every game of the season 100,000 times to get projected win totals as well as conference title odds for every college football team.

 

The Power 2?

 

The Big Ten and SEC have 12 of the top 13 teams. Notre Dame is the lone wolf in the elite programs of college football before a run of Utah, Kansas State and Florida State gives the Big 12 and ACC some representation.

 

GLENDALE, ARIZONA - JANUARY 01: Wide receiver Tez Johnson #15 of the Oregon Ducks reacts to a first down against the Liberty Flames during the first half of the Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium on January 01, 2024 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

 

A Big Three and the Rest

 

My model has a bit of a gap between No. 3 Oregon and No. 4 Texas. It’s no surprise that Georgia and Ohio State find themselves as elite programs, but Oregon is in new territory here. I’m a little skeptical of how the Ducks will transition to the Big Ten and the cross-country travel, but Dan Lanning’s squad has talent up and down the roster and was one of the best teams in the country last season.

 

Replacing Bo Nix may seem like a big hurdle, but grabbing Heisman Trophy-favorite Dillon Gabriel in the transfer portal should keep Oregon as one of the premier offenses in college football.

 

Athletic Top 25.jpg

 

The Athletic Top 25.jpg

 

 

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Mr. FishDuck

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Thank you, Charles. I agree that The Athletic is well worth the cost. Austin Meek is now The Athletic's go-to guy for coverage of the Wolverines and in general coverage of the B1G. 

 

The Athletic knows where its bread is buttered and there are many Power 2 articles on the site. 

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