Predicted Baseball Tourney Seeding: One Loss Collapses Oregon's National Seeding, per Pundits

[Charles Fischer]

You can read the article from 247 right here, but the bottom line is that both D1Baseball and Baseball America have dropped their predictions of Oregon's seeding tomorrow to much worse than I ever thought possible. Yes, we would still host an NCAA Regional at PK Park, but one loss killed our National Seed hopes.

 

Never mind that Oregon has won 15 of their last 17 games, so we had to win the B1G Tournament for a National Seed? Only winning 14 in a row will do it? Boy, if you do NOT want to award something, any reason will do. When the first one come along--we gotcha!

 

From the Article:

Following the completion of the Big Ten Tournament, D1Baseball.com has moved Oregon out of the Top 8 national seed to No. 13 overall, hosting a Eugene Regional against two-seed Big-12 Champion Arizona (39-18, 18-12), three-seed Connecticut (38-21, 17-4), and four-seed North Dakota State (20-32, 13-15).

 

Baseball America has moved Oregon to the No. 12 overall seed with two-seed Big-12 Champion Arizona (39-18, 18-12), three-seed Kentucky (29-24, 13-17), and four-seed North Dakota State (20-32, 13-15).

 

Oregon's NCAA Tournament schedule will be unveiled on Monday, May 26th, during the Selection Monday special on ESPN2 starting at 9 AM PT.

PK Park

 

[Charles Fischer]

I combined another thread begun by OBD member sports fan, and below is what he wrote:

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The 64 team field will be revealed tomorrow.  The Ducks will know who and where they will play.  On the D 1 Baseball website released today, Oregon is currently projected as a # 13 seed.  They will start the series in Eugene against Arizona, Connecticut and North Dakota State.  

 

D 1 Baseball also released an up to date RPI rankings.  Here are the results.

Arizona  # 27, Connecticut  # 40 and North Dakota State  # 152.  The Ducks RPI is # 16.  This is all speculation until the final tournament games are completed today.  

 

Although Oregon has had a great season, knocking off the Beavs in a four game sweep and taking two of three against the Bruins, the selection committee also looks at who they lost too.  Listed below are the teams that beat the Ducks and their RPI rankings.

 

UCLA               11

Nebraska         55

Rhode Island   67

 

Michigan          71

Rutgers            86

Minnesota       107

 

Grand Canyon 108

Maryland          127

Toledo              130

 

Michigan St.     141

Portland            178    We lost twice to the Pilots.

Ohio St.            231    We lost twice to the Buckeyes

 

[Charles Fischer]

You can look at D1Baseball's Projections right here, and below are some of my observations about other teams.

 

In the B1G, only Oregon is hosting, as UCLA lost their Regional Seed, and will travel to No. 11 Clemson as a No. 2 Regional Seed!  USC is in, but traveling to the Corvallis Regional to face Beavis, UC Irvine and St. Mary's.  Nebraska is being "watched" as they play UCLA for the B1G Tourney Championship at noon today.

 

Stunner: Oregon beat Oregon State four times, has won 15 of the their last 17 games, but Beavis gets a higher national seed than the Ducks at No. 9?

 

Oregon opponents Rhode Island and Columbia are predicted to be in the NCAA field.

 

Again...these are projections, and the actual bracket comes out tomorrow morning.

 

Dominic Hellman Crushing the Beavers Did Not Matter?

 

[30Duck]

On 5/25/2025 at 10:47 AM, Charles Fischer said:

but Beavis gets a higher national seed than the Ducks at No. 9?

Beavis does have a pedigree in baseball, so maybe OBD's sweep of them should matter more? The L's to Oregon look to be "Good" losses when it comes to that. Beavis didn't lose to Portland; they did lose twice to Nebraska. 

[Charles Fischer]

We had a ton of good wins, but we also have too many bad losses. Yet our margin is clearly much thinner than it is for most teams. It puts Waz in a tough spot; you need to schedule well for RPI, yet you need easier games to break in new players.  I would like to think our body of work...especially in the last month is better than No. 12 or No. 13...

 

 

 

[Duckman60]

They should never count Mid week games into the calculations.  You never put your best line up out there, you are trying to develop players.  U of P looked at the Oregon games totally different then Oregon did.  Would they have beaten Oregon if they were in our league?   No chance.  Against Nebraska Oregon played one of their worst games of the year and Nebraska played one of their best:

 

 

  During the season Oregon averaged less then 1 error a game, they had 4 (Not counting the miss judged fly ball in right field).  Nebraska averaged just over a 1/2 of a double play per game during the season, they had 3.  Baseball has always been a game about series.

 

Judging a team by one game is just plan stupid.  But the committees have proven that they want SEC teams to host as many games as possible, so they overlook SEC blunders but magnify everyone else's (do I believe in conspiracies?).  Oregon's women got screwed because of 1 loss, I expect the baseball team will too.

 

 

[NJDuck]

 

NCAA Selection Show Interviews