Charles was so Correct: when it comes to Playoff Football, the NFL 'GETS IT."

[Jon Joseph]

Wow, the NFL just delivered 6 one score football playoff games. 5 not decided before the final play of the game and the Rams/49ers game could well have been a 'last play' finish. Of course every NFL playoff season does not conclude like this, but it has the potential to do so. Why?

 

1. Only 32 teams play NFL football. 

 

2. The NFL, unlike college football (CFB) has far more than 3% of its teams competing for a playoff spot. Far more than 3% of the competitors make the playoff field.

 

3. There are no games against 'FCS schools.' Strength of schedule is far more equal in the NFL than it is in CFB, where playoff contenders do not even play the same number of conference games.

 

4. The NFL realizes it is a business. Media revenue is equally shared between the big and smaller media market teams. Bowl games are not an issue. Games are played on the home field of the higher seeded teams. The weather conditions for these games are what they are.

 

5. The NFL has restrictions on free agency, restrictions against roster tampering and a salary cap; a cap that is allowed because the players have a union that negotiates with management.

 

6. While the 32 NFL team owners have power, this power for the most part is delegated to a single commissioner. 

 

7. The NFL conducts a player draft that prevents a handful of teams from assembling the best talent. Roster equality equals better games during the regular season and in the post season. The draft and roster equality allow a team like the Bengals, that won 2 games in 2019, to be playing in the Super Bowl in 2021.

 

8. The playoff is objectively determined by results on the field and not subjectively by a playoff committee that 'negotiates in the dark.'

 

9. NFL players are in the league to play football and not to 'play school.'  

 

10. The NFL plays far more games than CFB, but the timing rules in the NFL mean far fewer plays are run than are run in the average CFB game. Thus, while the contact in the NFL is more violent it is less frequent per game than in CFB.

 

So CFB, what do you want to be in this day and age of CFB's regulator, the NCAA, handing over football 'management' to the conferences that do not participate in the CFB playoffs conducted by the NCAA. In this day and age of 'NIL pay-for-play' and 'transfer portal free agency.'  (ESPN reports that there are over 3,000 football players in the transfer portal.)

 

The 5 P5 commissioners, 5 G5 commissioners and the Notre Dame athletic director are not close to reaching agreement on CFB Playoff expansion. This inability to reach a decision on playoff expansion is costing every P5 school $20-30M+ a season at a time when the money (post-COVID 2020) is most needed. The ACC wants a 'holistic' review of a sport that is no longer holistic; a sport that is not after school recreation but a huge and growing business. A sport that is 'half-pregnant' between finding a way to please its member institutions playoff-wise, while at the same time attempting to please the bowl games. A sport where revenue differences are rapidly separating two P5 conferences, the B1G and the SEC, from their 'peers.'

 

Is today's CFB 'game' worth the candle for the Pac-12? Worth the candle for some but not all Pac-12 schools? Worth the candle for a conference with a functionally insolvent network? Worth the candle when many the game is played in front of half filled, or less, stadiums? Worth the candle for a conference that that has been a CFB playoff 'rumor,' deciding not to expand 'at this time?' For the Ducks, IMO, it is time to go big (and joining the B1G would be awesome) or go home. 'Home' being a regional Pac-12 conference member, no playoff affiliation with perhaps the money to convince the Rose Bowl to stick with it and not the playoff. 

 

CFB is a 'mess.' The Pac-12 is a CFB 'mess.' What in your opinion should the Ducks and the conference do before the new media rights deal comes up for bid in two years? My thinking, that others have on this board have suggested, is a merger between the Pac-12 and the B12? Failing that, some manner in which the Ducks can find a home where Oregon will not be left in the financial dust by the B1G and the SEC.

[Haywarduck]

The NFL is a billionaires club, where they know the game is Russian roulette and everybody has a loaded gun. With that is mind they all agree to let one commissioner ensure nobody fires their weapons at each other. 

 

The sub game is controlling the players and feeding the fans so the owners can all stay fat and happy. The NFL has the perfect synergy going on with a controlled power structure. The college game is a bunch of billionaires, suddenly turned loose with little of the structure the NFL has. Creating that structure with differing commissioners, differing perceptions about what is best for themselves is going to be messy. 

 

I think it will all come down to college programs beginning to also see the programs in a game of Russian roulette and wanting to preserve themselves while respecting others. The problem is I don't think too many programs in the Pac-12 deserve or can demand respect from the SEC or really any of the elite programs.

 

If the whole NIL and portal situation plays out as it seems to be going I think Oregon and SC and maybe a couple others will need to seek alliances with the elite programs and create a super league. Maybe it can be created like English soccer where you earn the right to stay in the premiere league every year. If you don't spend, the allotted money well you go down a league, others who compete move up. 

 

What I see is, in college football, and probably basketball there needs to be super leagues where there is a real playoff, and continues to be one in college basketball. There has to be big money created to fuel what is coming. The big money is only going to be sustained with bigger playoffs and that structure will be anyones guess, but the conferences as we see them now in football are ending, if my view is anywhere close to being correct. Turmoil and craziness is the only thing I am sure of.

[30Duck]

The NFL did have super teams, the Steelers won back to back Super Bowls in the 70's, the 49ers and Cowboys were dominant in the 80's and 90's, and of course the Patriots went from being fodder for the 85 Bears to becoming a dynasty.

 

But the NFL is built for parity now. The Bengals weren't even in the Playoffs last season, this season they're in the Super Bowl. Every team, except perhaps Detroit, can legitimately believe they can make the Playoffs next season.

 

Meanwhile with every conference in college only interested in itself, and getting TV deals, no such parity exists in college football. The Super League, with a commissioner and rules, is the only way for such parity in college football. Expanding the Playoffs would give more teams a chance, and open up fan interest, but the parity of teams won't exist like it does in the NFL.

 

[Haywarduck]

On 1/31/2022 at 10:40 AM, 30Duck said:

The NFL did have super teams, the Steelers won back to back Super Bowls in the 70's, the 49ers and Cowboys were dominant in the 80's and 90's, and of course the Patriots went from being fodder for the 85 Bears to becoming a dynasty.

 

But the NFL is built for parity now. The Bengals weren't even in the Playoffs last season, this season they're in the Super Bowl. Every team, except perhaps Detroit, can legitimately believe they can make the Playoffs next season.

 

Meanwhile with every conference in college only interested in itself, and getting TV deals, no such parity exists in college football. The Super League, with a commissioner and rules, is the only way for such parity in college football. Expanding the Playoffs would give more teams a chance, and open up fan interest, but the parity of teams won't exist like it does in the NFL.

 

Built for parity maybe, but without college athletes moving on you still have dynasties. From 2002-2019 New England was in over half the Super Bowls and won over 30%. A player like Tom Brady can't effect the college game like he did the NFL.

 

The two football systems, the NFL and the College Game, will always have their differences, but until there is a respectful agreement between college programs it is going to get ugly. What Texas A & M did with recruiting this year is only a hint of what is coming, unless they can agree on rules.

 

I think what we are actually seeing is more of a parity of qb's in the league. You have Aaron Rogers, Mahomes and others all playing at an extremely high level. That is what is creating the parity, more than anything being done differently by the NFL. The NFL has, for the most part, been a controlled play ground of the ultra rich where they know rules are in their best interest.

[Jon Joseph]

One big advantage the pro coaches have is when you do get a franchise QB, like Brady, Bradshaw, Allen, Mahomes, Burrow, you can build around him without worrying about losing the guy in 2 to 3 years. Hayward makes this point above in regards to Brady.

[Jon Joseph]

On 1/31/2022 at 1:58 PM, Haywarduck said:

Built for parity maybe, but without college athletes moving on you still have dynasties. From 2002-2019 New England was in over half the Super Bowls and won over 30%. A player like Tom Brady can't effect the college game like he did the NFL.

 

The two football systems, the NFL and the College Game, will always have their differences, but until there is a respectful agreement between college programs it is going to get ugly. What Texas A & M did with recruiting this year is only a hint of what is coming, unless they can agree on rules.

 

I think what we are actually seeing is more of a parity of qb's in the league. You have Aaron Rogers, Mahomes and others all playing at an extremely high level. That is what is creating the parity, more than anything being done differently by the NFL. The NFL has, for the most part, been a controlled play ground of the ultra rich where they know rules are in their best interest.

 

Spot on. In CFB it is every man (conference) for himself. If the Pac-12 dropped to G5 or equivalent status would the SEC give a fig? No.

[Jon Joseph]

On 1/31/2022 at 1:40 PM, Haywarduck said:

The NFL is a billionaires club, where they know the game is Russian roulette and everybody has a loaded gun. With that is mind they all agree to let one commissioner ensure nobody fires their weapons at each other. 

 

The sub game is controlling the players and feeding the fans so the owners can all stay fat and happy. The NFL has the perfect synergy going on with a controlled power structure. The college game is a bunch of billionaires, suddenly turned loose with little of the structure the NFL has. Creating that structure with differing commissioners, differing perceptions about what is best for themselves is going to be messy. 

 

I think it will all come down to college programs beginning to also see the programs in a game of Russian roulette and wanting to preserve themselves while respecting others. The problem is I don't think too many programs in the Pac-12 deserve or can demand respect from the SEC or really any of the elite programs.

 

If the whole NIL and portal situation plays out as it seems to be going I think Oregon and SC and maybe a couple others will need to seek alliances with the elite programs and create a super league. Maybe it can be created like English soccer where you earn the right to stay in the premiere league every year. If you don't spend, the allotted money well you go down a league, others who compete move up. 

 

What I see is, in college football, and probably basketball there needs to be super leagues where there is a real playoff, and continues to be one in college basketball. There has to be big money created to fuel what is coming. The big money is only going to be sustained with bigger playoffs and that structure will be anyones guess, but the conferences as we see them now in football are ending, if my view is anywhere close to being correct. Turmoil and craziness is the only thing I am sure of.

Here is 1 man's take on what a Super League could look like? A number of these teams have not played that well as of late but are for brand name and/or market size.

 

East - Clemson, Florida, FSU, Georgia, Miami, North Carolina, NC State, Notre Dame, Penn State, Pitt

 

South - Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Kentucky, Louisville, LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Tennessee

 

Central - Illinois, Iowa, Iowa State, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio State, Wisconsin

 

West - ASU, Colorado, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, OREGON, Texas, Texas A+M, USC, Utah, Washington

 

40 schools which may not be selective enough? Media rights bid collectively. Also could establish its own pay-for-view network. Revenue split by on field success, number of eyeballs that watch a given team, attendance, etc. There would be minimum required to be spent on football but no cap. An NFL style playoff. One commissioner (Nick Saban to start?) Remain in your conference for other sports except possibly CBB and split a reasonable percentage of the proceeds with other other conference members. At least a 12 team playoff with as suggested by Bob Bowlsby and others, eliminating the clock stopping on 1st down and taking other steps to limit the number of the plays in a game. 

 

Query: Would this group approve direct pay-for-play and a high school draft? Something would need to be done to allow for better parity.

 

Alternatively, the B1G and the SEC could just add teams to get to 20 or so, each. Both have the means to do so. Plenty of AAU member schools in the Pac-12 and the ACC for the B1G, if this mattered and plenty of schools in the ACC and the B12 that could be picked off by the SEC.

[30Duck]

On 1/31/2022 at 10:58 AM, Haywarduck said:

but until there is a respectful agreement between college programs it is going to get ugly.

Yes, the NFL, where a team like Cincy, not even in the Playoffs a year ago, is in the Super Bowl this time.  There are very successful teams, the New England Dynasty. But, because of the draft, the salary limits, the respectful agreement, the NFL Playoffs, will not be the same year after year.

 

There are great QB's throughout the league, Justin Herbert didn't even make it. Kyler Murray was knocked out in the first round, Josh Allen and Buffalo lost to the Mahome's led Chiefs that lost to the Burrow led Bengals. Russell Wilson finally was not enough to get Seattle to the Playoffs.

[Jon Joseph]

On 1/31/2022 at 3:22 PM, 30Duck said:

Yes, the NFL, where a team like Cincy, not even in the Playoffs a year ago, is in the Super Bowl this time.  There are very successful teams, the New England Dynasty. But, because of the draft, the salary limits, the respectful agreement, the NFL Playoffs, will not be the same year after year.

 

There are great QB's throughout the league, Justin Herbert didn't even make it. Kyler Murray was knocked out in the first round, Josh Allen and Buffalo lost to the Mahome's led Chiefs that lost to the Burrow led Bengals. Russell Wilson finally was not enough to get Seattle to the Playoffs.

My BAD on not noting All Pro Justin Herbert. Now, they need to get the right guys surrounding him and a coach who is better than Mario with his time out calls.

[30Duck]

On 1/31/2022 at 1:16 PM, Jon Joseph said:

Now, they need to get the right guys surrounding him and a coach who is better than Mario with his time out calls.

I think the Chargers are on solid ground with Staley. He may have been driven a bit by analytics in going for 2, but he was a huge improvement over his predecessor. 

[Haywarduck]

A draft for high school products would never work, if there is academics involved, which I think there has to be. Maybe the new USFL will allow the dumb jocks to go straight to the pros, but there has to be something to the student athlete element of college sports. If so, then choice has to be part of that. It is going to be a crazy time, but there can't be a draft of high school kids, can there?!!!!!!!