Bill Connally's First SP+ Rankings Release For 2022

[Jon Joseph]

Bill Connelly of ESPN has posted his first 2022 SP+ rankings of the 131 teams playing P5/G5 football.

 

SP+ is 'a predictive measure of CFB efficiency' based on (i) returning production, (ii) recent recruiting and transfers, and (iii) recent history. As Connelly himself notes, the SP+ often significantly differs from the majority of preseason rankings.  However, in the 8 years of the CFB playoff the SP+ has predicted 3 out of the 4 teams on 6 occasions and has gone 4 for 4 on two occasions. The SP+ is updated after spring practice and after practice in August.

 

SP+ initial top 12 for 2022:

 

1. Ohio State

2. Georgia

3. Alabama

4. Michigan - Both OC and DC gone. But MI picked up 2nd team AA Vastardio from Virginia to replace its departing center. The other 4 OL starters from MI's award winning 2021 OL are back.

5. Clemson

6. Texas A+M 

7. Oklahoma 

8. Notre Dame

9. Tennessee - I know. This is a 'What?' TN and Auburn are the only 2 schools in the country that have to play Bama and UGA every season.

10. Wisconsin

11. Cincinnati

12. Mississippi State - SEE: Tennessee

 

Pac-12 rankings -

 

14. Utah - far lower than all other preseason polls.

 

31. ASU - 2nd best team in the Pac-12? I don't see it.

 

32. OREGON - please, don't shoot the messenger!  BTW, BYU comes in at 23, meaning two SP+ top 25 teams on the Ducks 2022 OOC schedule. Thanks Rob.

 

44. UCLA -  piece of cake OOC schedule (Michigan backed out of a H+H) could set the Bruins up for a better finish than this? 

 

46. Oregon State - interesting that the Beavers have yet to add a 2022 transfer from the portal.

 

61. UW - too high? Picked up a possible starting QB in Penix from Indiana and just added a quality LB from Pitt.

 

64. USC - Bill Connelly notes that he has no idea what to expect out of USC in 2022. Personally, I think this is way too low considering the O that SC will put on the field vs Pac-12 Ds.

 

68. Stanford - I guess no positive impact from very good incoming recruiting class. Cardinal picked up at 3 year OK starter at CB from the portal.

 

70. Washington State - With the addition of Incarnate Word QB, Cameron Ward, who threw for close to 5,000 (!) yards last season, and with his IW HC taking over as WSU's OC, I think WSU could be the Pac-12's surprise team of 2022?

 

74. CAL - Lots of 1 score Ls in 2021. Can QB Plummer from Purdue play as well or better than Garbers?

 

99. Arizona - With a very good recruiting class and good transfers including the QB from WSU, I think AZ will surprise a few teams.

 

102. Colorado -already suspect Buffs were portal punished. 

 

Top 3 P5 by conference - ACC - 5 Clemson, 13 Pitt (SC transfer Slovis likely to be Pitt's starting QB,) 15. NC State (Mario is MIA)/ B12 - 7 OK, 30. Baylor, 33. TX/ B1G - 1 Ohio State, 4 Michigan, 10 Wisconsin/ Pac-12 - 14 Utah, 31 ASU, 32 OREGON/ SEC - 2 UGA, 3 Bama, 6 A+M

 

Average conference ranking. 1 SEC, 2 B1G (1+2, follow the $) 3 ACC, 4 B12, 5 Pac-12 

 

Connelly, in regards to OREGON being 12 in the ESPN preseason poll and 32 in SP+ - "SP+ never saw the Ducks as serious contenders last fall, but it still had them at 14 after 10 games before dropping all the way to 38th with a dismal 1-3 finish. With a new head coach and a new starting QB, Oregon is not expected to immediately surge back."  

 

Although the schedule is brutal, versus 2 and 23 OOC and 5 conference road games I do expect the Ducks will win the North in 2022; how about you?

 

 

[30Duck]

The first thing I notice is that Connally, like most other early projections, has Oklahoma doing better than okay, without Riley. I don't understand why Connolly finds USC's situation to be uniquely hard to gauge, as for Oregon? If the Ducks beat Georgia in the opener, I expect they'll be in the top 3 in the polls again, and they are definitely the pick to win the North. 

[Jon Joseph]

On 2/10/2022 at 10:43 AM, 30Duck said:

The first thing I notice is that Connally, like most other early projections, has Oklahoma doing better than okay, without Riley. I don't understand why Connolly finds USC's situation to be uniquely hard to gauge, as for Oregon? If the Ducks beat Georgia in the opener, I expect they'll be in the top 3 in the polls again, and they are definitely the pick to win the North. 

As a predictive model, SP+ has the Ducks as at least a 10 point plus dog vs the UGA dawgs. UGH! Beating the defending champs in Atlanta in his HC debut would be a huge W for Lanning and a huge upset. I hope the Ducks are competitive in this game and will defeat BYU at home.

 

No doubt Oregon will be favored to win the North.  I think at WSU is going to be a very tough game. New QB Ward as noted above, threw for close to 5,000 yards in 2021 and won the' FCS Heisman,' the Walter Peyton Award. With his HC following him and taking over as the WSU OC job, there will be no learning curve when it comes to the style of offense WSU will play. 

 

It would surprise most of the CFB world but I expect WSU to hang in against the Badgers in Madison; perhaps, even pull the upset if WSU can turn the game into a shoot out?

[Jon Joseph]

For all those who want a sad CFB read, see on ESPN+ (pay wall) "Oklahoma and Texas who? How the new-look B12 is ready to thrive" by Adam Rittenberg. 

 

Standing Still and not picking up leftover B12 teams + Houston, one of the worst CFB business decisions of all time. You stand still in any big business and you fall behind. The Pac-12 is already far enough behind.

[HappyToBeADuck]

Personally I put very little stock in any poll or analysis this early in the 2022 process. Even the good ones like SP+.  Consider that there is no way to quantify or qualify the impact of the transfer portal. MSU and Baylor gave us a good snapshot of what the portal can do. Were they the exception or the rule?

 

With 3,000 plus players in the portal, how do you measure the negative or positive gains for each team? It's safe to imagine rosters will change after spring ball via the portal. In or out teams will be affected.

 

That top 10 is a safe bet but a hollow, empty presentation without Utah in the top 10.  We all have eyes and saw the powerhouse that Utah became once they settled on Rising. Utah boat raced Oregon twice. They gave tOSU one hec of a game. Way better than expected. Utah would beat 5 of those teams listed ahead of them. And give the others a run for their money. No matter the analytics used.......

 

Fortunately, Oregon, USC and WSU get a chance to beat those teams above them on the field. Not sure where Florida ranks but Utah has a good opportunity to take them out.

 

Nothing like walking the walk. Man it seems like eternity for spring ball to start. September feels like it's in another dimension. Go Ducks.....

[Duck1984]

Thanks for sharing the SP+ rankings Jon.  

 

I wonder what Dave Bartoo will say?

[Jon Joseph]

On 2/10/2022 at 4:33 PM, Duck1984 said:

Thanks for sharing the SP+ rankings Jon.  

 

I wonder what Dave Bartoo will say?

Some of the projections in my opinion are nuts but Connelly has been amazingly accurate regarding the teams in the initial top 4 that end up in the playoff. 

[30Duck]

On 2/10/2022 at 4:20 PM, Jon Joseph said:

but Connelly has been amazingly accurate regarding the teams in the initial top 4 that end up in the playoff. 

Not to make light of Connelly but weeding out the party crashers to the Invitational hasn't been that tricky. 

[Duck1984]

On 2/10/2022 at 4:20 PM, Jon Joseph said:

Some of the projections in my opinion are nuts but Connelly has been amazingly accurate regarding the teams in the initial top 4 that end up in the playoff. 

I have not followed Connelly but Bartoo has been interesting over the years.  Bartoo grades coaches on a star system and seems very high on Miami for 2022.
 

A playoff winner or national champion has had a top 25 offense and defense in the prior year for a couple decades.  Ducks need to step up in both categories in 2022 for a shot at the playoffs in 2023.

 

Also, three of the four playoff teams were top 10 in fewest offensive plays.  Alabama is consistently among the lowest offensive snaps per game.

 

Edited February 11, 2022 by Duck1984

[Jon Joseph]

On 2/10/2022 at 7:34 PM, 30Duck said:

Not to make light of Connelly but weeding out the party crashers to the Invitational hasn't been that tricky. 

AMEN. Follow the roster rankings. BTW, Oregon's roster was ranked #9 heading into the 2021 season. In the final AP poll, the Ducks finished no where close to the top 10. THIS is Mario.